Climate Change and Biodiversity in North America

Jorge SoberonUniversity of Kansas

and CONABIO

Biodiversity of North America

• The three NAFTA countries represent a region of tremendous biodiversity richness

• Mexico is the 4th Megadiverse country. The United States is the 13th Megadiverse country

• Canada has low numbers of species but ecosystems of high global importance and many charismatic species.

North America will be affected

NOAA, “Middle of the Road” Scenario using CM.1

Climate change and biodiversity

• Obviously, climate change will affect distributions of species

• Think – endangered species– game– pollinators– vectors of diseases– agricultural pests– invasive species

• Think major economic and social disruptions

To an extent, changes are predictable

• Requires efforts and resources to computerize the hundreds of millions of data records still remaining

• Share those records (NABIN, the first operational example of distributed biodiversity data sharing was a CEC initiative)

• Cutting-edge algorithms

Total Number of Changes

•Peterson et al, 2002 Future Projections for Mexican Faunas under Global Change Scenarios Nature 416:626-629

•1870 species, (1,179 birds, 416 mammals and 175 butterflies)

Actions

• Advocacy, Mitigation, Adaptation,…require negotiations, legislation changes, budgets, governability…

• Multiplicity of stakeholders at different levels (local, regional, national, international).

• Different property right systems, land-owning regimes, systems of values.

• Markets at many levels and scales• Uncertainties are truly large.

Extent and resolution of knowledge

• Uncertainties are very large at every step. Errors propagate.

• Our predictions tend to be either low-resolution, order of magnitude.

• For some important components of biodiversity, it may be fair to say that we can predict the logarithms of what is going to happen, at the scale of “counties”

• For human actions, we cannot even predict whether they will take place!

• What can we do with that?

We will need tremendous flexibility…

• In the structure of landscapes

• In agricultural methodologies

• Preserving genetic diversity

• Monitor extensively (citizen science)

• In governance (educated public), fast responses

Do not put all eggs in one basket, at all levels

• Subsidies not to yield, but to sustainability and diversity.

• Redesign the economic valuation system. Figure-in the “externalities”.

• Facilitate society to pay for easements. Figure ways of paying for ecosystem services

• Promote alternatives: Sustainable Forestry, Wildlife Management, Ecofriendly agriculture. Organic, no-tilling, IPM

• Develop different conservation paradigms

Conclusion

• Biodiversity and human welfare are intimately linked

• The three North American countries share some of the longest borders in the planet, hugely important ecosystems, migratory species, and our economies are integrating more and more

• Climate change will affect the region as a whole, and we must be prepared to deal with those changes

Abiotic niche

Biotic interactionsAccessibility

Area presenting appropriate combinations of abiotic and biotic conditions (= potential distribution)

Actual geographic distribution(abiotic and biotic conditions fulfilled,accessible to dispersers)