National Institute of Disaster Management,Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India

CONTENTS:

Climate change: already evident in India

Climate Change: Future Projections

Climate Change Risk Management Initiatives

Integrating DRR and CCA

Future Directions

Change in Climate: already evident (in India)

Increasing trends in mean temperature (0.5o to 0.8o C)Diurnal Temperature Range increasingMore Heat Waves /Increased Drought in some regionIncreased frequency & intensity of precipitationGlacial retreats /Glacial Lake outburst Floods (GLOFs)Sea level rise /Increase in Intensity of very strong CyclonesAdverse impact on Agriculture & Horticulture, Forestry & bio diversity, Human/ Animal healthGlaciers in Himalayan region receding @ 16 mts per year; water scarcity in rivers and ground water; 750 million people residing downstream are at risk.

(Source – MoEF 2011)

HIMALAYAN GLACIERS ARE RETREATING FAST

SO, MAJOR STREAMS ARE EXPERIENCING EARLY PEAKS IN DISCHARGE

STREAMS TO ACCOMMODATE LARGER VOLUME OF WATER NOW, OR FLOOD MORE OFTEN

NEXT PHASE WILL SEE A MAJOR WATER CRISIS Retreat @ 34 m/year during last 3 decades

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Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s

RainfallRainfall

TempTemp

Projections of extremes in rainfall (2041‐2060)

• Overall decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country. 

• Decrease in the western and central part of the country (by more than 15 days), 

• Foothills of Himalayas and in northeast India the number of rainy days is found to increase by  5–10 days. 

• Increase in the rainfall intensity by 1–4 mm/day, 

• Northwest India ‐ the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day 

• Increase in the highest 1‐day rainfall over a major part ‐may be up to 20 cm/day 

(Source:IITM)

j p60

Acute physical water scarce conditions

Constant water scarcities and shortage

Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions

Rare water shortages

(Source: MoEF- 2011)

Current Endemic regions of malaria

Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s

Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Malaria

•Increase in temperature is projected to enhance the occurrence and spread of Malaria

• Malaria is likely to occur at elevations higher than 1800m

•More states may offer climate opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year.

•Transmission windows may increase by 3-5 months in northern states and may reduce by 2-3 months in the southern states. 1001/10/2013

Vulnerable areas along Indian Coastline

•A long term average rising trend of 1 mm/year in sea level observed •Sea level changes are also due to –

•Tectonic movement•Prevalent hydrography •Physiography.

•A one-meter sea level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5764 km2 of land area will be lost along with 4200 km of roads

Change in RAINFALL

•Frequent & Severe Flood, •Higher river erosion•Increased sedimentation

•Increased River flow ( warm season)•Lower flow (once glacier melted)•Increased saline intrusion

•More storm surge•Higher wind speed•Saline water intrusion

•Rise in Temperature.•More wet climate

•Land inundation•Salt water intrusion•Increased soil salinity

•Droughts condition•Soil degradation•Fall in water table

•Irrigation water scarcity•Soil nutrient deficiency•More Disease (cattle/crop)

•Agr; land inundation & erosion•Damage to crop, fishery. livestock•Agr. Input loss ( fert, seeds etc.)

•Agr. Land inundation•Scarcity of water for irrigation•Soil degradation ( more salinity)

•Agriculture land loss•Scarcity of irrigation water•Soil degradation (moresalinity)

•Rise in insect infestation•Crop and cattle disease•Less evapo-transpiration

•Direct loss to crop, fishery, & livestock•Soil becomes infertile•Scarcity of fresh water (irrigation)

Resulting into--- Impact on livelihood and other resources

•Scarce water resources•Nutrition deficiency•Increased poverty•Poor health•Scarce Livelihood•Migration

HUMID / WARM CLIMATE

SEA LEVEL RISE

GLACIAR MELTING

LOWER RAINFALL

MORE CYCLONE

POORNATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT&

FOOD INSECURITY

Climate Change: National Development & Food Security

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• The  plan  relates to sustainable development, co- -benefits to society at large, focus on adaptation, mitigation, and scientific research.

•Identifies  eight  core  “national missions”representingmulti-pronged, long-term and integrated strategies for achieving key goals:

1. National Solar Mission2. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency3. National Mission on Sustainable Habitat4. National Water Mission5. National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan

Ecosystem6. National Mission for a Green India7. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture8. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for

Climate Change

National Action Plan on Climate ChangeNATIONAL ACTION PLAN ONNATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

GOVERNMENT OF INDIAGOVERNMENT OF INDIA

PRIME MINISTERPRIME MINISTER’’S COUNCIL ON S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

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India’s National Communication to the UNFCCC

Ministry of Environment and Forest

Designated National Authority (DNA)

Climate Change activities and policy measures

Institutional Structure for Climate Change Risk Management

Joint Secretary, Climate Change Focal point

Project Proponent for funding through GEF

Advisor, MoEF

Other Communications and 

Submissions to the UNFCCC

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Implementing Agency for the GEF

Network of Institutes

Joint Secretary, GEF, Focal Point

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•Climate  Change  adaptation:  An adjustment  in  natural  or  human systems  in  response  to  actual  or expected  climate  stimuli  or  their effects,  which moderates  harm  or exploits benefit opportunities.

• Disaster  Risk  Reduction:  The broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to  minimise  vulnerabilities  and disaster  risks  throughout  society, through prevention, mitigation and preparedness‟

DRR

CCA

Long‐term adjustment to changing average conditions

Climate Risk Management (including weather extreme)

Risk Management of Geophysical hazards

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION & DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

In support of the Bali Action Plan, and based on consultation with ISDR system partners and UNFCCC Parties, India has identified and promoted the following three areas of action over 2008:

• Develop national coordination mechanisms to link  disaster risk reduction and adaptation. 

• Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of  disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts. 

• Prepare adaptation plans drawing on the Hyogo  Framework.

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In  India DRR    ( DM Act  2005)  and CC    ( NAPCC‐2008) related  Institutional, Policy and Programme Framework   already exists……

It is now time for  convergencefor  effective  development  planning  and programming: managing risks and uncertainties for all  shocks  and  stresses  as  simply  good  business, particularly  in  the  face  of mounting  evidence  that disasters  are  hampering  development  and  poverty alleviation.