Climate Change and Extreme Weather Adaptation Options for Transportation Assets in the San Francisco Bay Area
Stefanie Hom, Metropolitan Transportation Commission California Adaptation Forum
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Photo: Ingrid Taylor
Goal The goal of Adapting to Rising Tides is to increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community assets, such as transportation.
Climate change is projected to cause the San Francisco Bay to rise 16 inches by mid-century and 55-inches by end of century
Current project will identify multimodal adaptation options for vulnerable transportation assets and an implementation strategy in three focus areas
Current project leverages other work: Adapting to Rising Tides (ART): Transportation Vulnerability and
Risk Assessment Pilot Project
BART Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot
Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) project (larger scope)
Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (ACFCWCD) Sea Level Rise Studies
Background
Bay Area Flooding
Scope
Study Area
Oakland Coliseum
Oakland Bay Bridge
Touchdown
Hayward Hwy 92
Corridor
San Francisco Bay Area: Alameda County sub-region
Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC)
California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)
Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)
U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
Consultant Team: AECOM & Cambridge Systematics
Project Management
Pilot Model 1. Data Asset Inventory &
Asset Screening and Prioritization
2. Climate and Shoreline Information
3. Vulnerability Assessment 1. =Exposure +
Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity
4. Risk Assessment
1. = Likelihood + Consequence
5. Adaptation Strategies
Assessing Vulnerability
Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
• Vulnerability: “is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” (IPCC definition 2007)
Our definition: = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive
capacity = inundation to Sea Level Rise +
condition of asset + ability to reroute if inundated
Asset Exposure
Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
Assets within a half mile buffer of the 55” inundation zone were considered for moving forward through the analysis
Asset Risk Profile
• Asset Characteristics
• Vulnerability Rating • Exposure • Sensitivity • Adaptive Capacity
• Risk Rating
• Likelihood • Consequence
Lessons Learned from Pilot 1. Creating data inventory for transportation and shoreline assets was
challenging due to inconsistent availability of data and high level of effort
2. Prioritizing assets was premature prior to consequence analysis and not acceptable to stakeholders
3. Most important asset selection filter was exposure to flooding and inundation; asset characteristics and functionality were less important
4. Using existing climate science information is insufficient; further mapping of climate impacts is necessary to understand asset vulnerability
5. Need robust definitions or guidance on what exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity mean and how to use them for different project types
6. Need early input from stakeholders on how to define consequence impact criteria so that criteria are tailored to local context
Lessons learned from pilot indicated need for additional analysis
A lot of critical infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and adaptation strategies will be needed
Plan Bay Area Environmental Impact Report (EIR) analyzed impact of 24-inches of sea level rise and identified mitigation measures
Continue coordination with partner agencies and stakeholders
Develop sea level rise adaptation strategy
Consider sea level rise in Transportation Asset Management Plans
Consider sea level rise in new construction and routine maintenance
Moving from Vulnerability to Adaptation
Project will identify multimodal adaptation options for vulnerable transportation assets and implementation plans for four strategies within in three focus areas;
Conceive and evaluate multi-objective adaptation strategies;
Identify adaptation strategies that each agency can pursue;
Full list of strategies
Five detailed strategies
Establish a strategy development process that can be replicated elsewhere; and
Inform the larger ART project and 2017 RTP/SCS.
Identify Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation Methodology
Define and Scope Project
Area and Assets
Refine Sea Level Rise Mapping
Assess Vulnerabilities
Define Adaptation Strategies
Evaluate Effects of
Adaptation Options
Bay Bridge Focus Area – 24” I-880 7th Street/Bay Street –
Transbay Tube Eastshore State
Park/Emeryville Crescent
EBMUD Facilities Electrical Substation Port Operations
Bay Bridge Focus Area – 48” I-880 7th Street/Bay Street –
Transbay Tube Eastshore State
Park/Emeryville Crescent
EBMUD Facilities Electrical Substation Port Operations
Oakland Coliseum Focus Area – 24” I-880 Oakland Coliseum
Amtrak Station Oakland Coliseum
BART Station BART Oakland Airport
Connector MLK Regional
Shoreline San Leandro Channel Commercial/Industrial San Leandro Street Coliseum Arena
Complex
Oakland Coliseum Focus Area – 48” I-880 Oakland Coliseum
Amtrak Station Oakland Coliseum
BART Station BART Oakland Airport
Connector MLK Regional
Shoreline San Leandro Channel Commercial/Industrial San Leandro Street Coliseum Arena
Complex
Hayward Focus Area – 24” SR-92 Bay Trail Hayward Shoreline
Interpretive Center Oliver Salt Ponds Eden Landing
Ecological Reserve Industrial land uses
Hayward Focus Area – 48” SR-92 Bay Trail Hayward Shoreline
Interpretive Center Oliver Salt Ponds Eden Landing
Ecological Reserve Industrial land uses
Focus Area Working Groups
Bay Bridge Oakland Coliseum Hayward
Caltrans Caltrans Caltrans
BART BART Water Resources Control Board
EBRPD AC Transit EBRPD
Port of Oakland Port of Oakland Union Sanitary District
City of Emeryville PG&E PG&E
Gateway Park / TY Lin ABAG ABAG
EBMUD EBMUD Hayward Area Recreation and Park District
Public Works Departments Public Works Departments
Vulnerability Metrics
• Metrics describe the asset and highlight any current conditions or stressors that could affect its vulnerability
Existing Conditions
• Determine if data is lacking, incomplete, poorly coordinated, or hard to access Information
• Identify challenges with management, authority, regulation, or funding Governance
• Consider the function of assets and their relationships with other assets Functional
• Identify conditions or design aspects that make an asset particular vulnerable Physical
• Help understand the potential consequences of a climate change impact for society, the economy, and the environment Consequences
Example Adaptation Strategies
Core Transportation Assets
• Drainage System Modifications • Update Emergency Management Plans • Relocation/Replacement/Enhancement • ITS Solutions
Focus Area (transportation and adjacent assets)
• Levees • Shoreline Protection (berms) • Natural and Engineered Solutions
Agency Specific (primarily Caltrans and BART)
• Information Databases • Coordination • Strategies that can be integrated into normal
maintenance
Evaluate Adaptation Options
Social Equity Environment
Economy Governance
Adaptation Strategy
Determine order of magnitude and costs and benefits of each adaptation option
Weigh each option against a no-action scenario
Understand trade-offs Narrow down full list of
strategies to five that will be developed further
Evaluation Methodology Pre-Screen Qualitative Evaluation Full Evaluation
“Final Five” Adaptation Strategies
Breakwater offshore of Radio Beach (Bay Bridge)
Artificial Dune / Living Levee north of Bay Bridge Touchdown (Bay Bridge)
Damon Slough Living Levee (Coliseum)
San Mateo-Hayward Bridge Drainage Study (Hayward)
BART Planning Process Update (Agency Specific)
1
2
3
4
5
Focus Area Physical
Strategies
Informational Strategy
Governance Strategy
Next Steps Additional Analyses
Long Range Planning
Existing Planning Processes
Asset Management
Emergency Response
Design Standards
Adapting to Rising Tides
Questions?
Stefanie Hom Metropolitan Transportation Commission Oakland, California [email protected] 510.817.5756
