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Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies
in the Midwestern U.S.
Rebecca A. PfeiferAg Consultant, New Palestine, IN
Otto DoeringDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University
Jane Southworth and J.C. RandolphSchool of Public and Environmental Affairs
Indiana University
Acknowledgments This research was funded by grant number R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A.
The HadCM2 data was provided by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the Hadley Center and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
The VEMAP data was obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado.
Study region
Climate change modeled
Impact on Farm-Level Decisionsplanting date
varietycrop mix
Risk Assessments
Conclusions & suggestions for further research
Climate Change and YOU!
V = VEMAP, current conditions
S = Sulfate, moderate climate change
G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change
0.5X = half current climate variability
1.0X = current climate variability
2.0X = twice current climate variability
Naming Conventions
Eastern Wisconsin
-15-10
-505
1015202530354045
JanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec
Month of the Year
Temperature (C)
-60
-40
-20
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Change in Precip.
(mm)
Southern Illinois
-15-10
-505
1015202530354045
JanFeb Mar AprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDecMonth of the Year
Temperature (C)
-60-40-20020406080100120
Change in Precip.
(mm)
( f ) ( e ) ( d )
( c ) ( b ) ( a )
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Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios
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( a ) ( b ) ( c )
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Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios
( f ) ( e ) ( d )
( c ) ( b ) ( a )
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Change in Winter Wheat Yields under Climate Scenarios
Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios
Eastern Wisconsin
0
40
80
120
70 100 130 160 190 220Yield (% current max)
Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios
Southern Illinois
0
40
80
120
70 100 130 160 190 220Day of Year
Yield (% current max)
Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios
Eastern Wisconsin
0
50
100
150
70 100 130 160 190 220
Yield (% current max)
Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios
Southern Illinois
04080
120
70 100 130 160 190 220
Day of Year
Yield (% current max)
Planting date (day of year)
Yield
VEMAP SUL GHG
Potential for better adapted genotype
Comparison of Yield Response Curves
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Current Climate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
S ILSW IN
E ILEC IN
NW OHE WI
SW WIMI TH
SC MI
Southern Central Sites Northern sites
Crop Mix
0
50
100
150
200
Returns ($/acre)
C-S C-W/S Returns
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Sulfate Scenario
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
S ILSW IN
E ILEC IN
NW OHE WI
SW WIMI TH
SC MI
Southern Central Sites Northern sites
Crop Mix
050100150200250300350
Returns ($/acre)
C-S C-W/S S-S Returns
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Greenhouse Gases Scenario
0%
20%
40%
60%
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100%
S IL SWINE IL ECIN NWOH
E WISW
WI MITH SC
MI
Southern Central Sites Northern sites
Crop Mix
0
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Returns ($/acre)
C-S C-W/S S-S Returns
Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario
0
50
100
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V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G
S IL SW IN E IL EC IN NWOH
E WI SW WI MI TH SC MI
Southern Sites Central Sites Northern sites
Returns ($/acre)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Vemap 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G(a) Corn
Yield (kg/ha)
Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Vemap 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G(a) Corn
Yield (kg/ha)
Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Eastern Wisconsin
Eastern Wisconsin Southern Illinois
Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields by Climate Variability
0
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0.5 1 2GHG Variability
Probability
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0.5 1 2GHG Variability
Probability
Conclusions
Climate change will impact midwestern grain farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions
Impacts will vary significantly within region, especially north to south
Adaptation strategies include equipment improvements (working rates), later planting dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat and climate variability, crop mix adjustments, changes in operation financing
Further research
Where are the better-suited varieties?
Will demand for better adapted crops make them worthwhile to grow?
As time passes, models will improve – update research…
Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the farming environment