Climate Change and Health Presentation 1 Oct 2013

Climate Change and Health

Air Pollution and Climate Change Group, Toxicology Department Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards

Dr Sotiris Vardoulakis


Outline Global climate change and health

First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK

Heat and cold effects on health

Air pollution and climate change

Environmental health and sustainability


IPCC 5th Assessment Report – The Physical Science Basis

Available on 30 September 2013

http://www.ipcc.ch/


Observed change in average surface temperature (1900-2012)

oC

IPCC, 4th AR

Global annual mean temperature anomaly

Mitigation is vital, but we need to prepare for inevitable climate change

observationsprojections

2003

2060s

2040s

Te

mp

era

ture

an

om

aly

ov

er

Eu

rop

e (

wrt

19

61

-90

) °

C

Hadley Centre

We are already committed to this from past emissions alone

Hughes et al (2011), modified from Capon and Hanna (2009) and Berry et al (2011)

Distribution of four climate-sensitive health effects

Relative changes in diarrhea, malaria, inland and coastal flooding, and malnutrition from 2000 to 2030

(Patz et al., 2008)


Climate Change Act 2008

Climate Change Risk AssessmentJanuary 2012

National AdaptationProgramme

2013

Committee on Climate Change

Adaptation Economic

Assessment




Health Effects of Climate

Change 2012

UK

CP

09

UK

CIP

02


Change 2002


Change 2008

Legislative Framework: Moving from evidence to policy

CCRA: Sectors and Themes

Sectors (for initial analysis) Themes (for synthesis)Sectors (for initial analysis) Themes (for synthesis)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-government-report

1. Agriculture

2. Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services

3. Built Environment

4. Business, Industry & Services

5. Energy

6. Floods & Coastal Erosion

7. Forestry

8. Health

9. Marine & Fisheries

10. Transport

11. Water

• Agriculture & Forestry• Business• Health & Wellbeing• Buildings & Infrastructure• Natural Environment

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-government-report


CCRA: Key issues for different parts of the UK


Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2012)

• Evidence

• Recommendations

• Research gaps

www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012


Current Evidence & Research Gaps 1. Current evidence and climate projections

2. Temperature Effects

3. Air Pollution

4. Aeroallergens

5. Indoor Environment

6. Ultraviolet Radiation

7. Floods

8. Vector borne diseases

9. Food and Water borne Diseases

10. Health Co-benefits of Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions


Climate Projections http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

Emissions Scenarios

CO2 emissions under the three IPCC SRES scenarios used in UKCP09: A1FI (black: High emissions), A1B (purple: Medium emissions), and B1 (green: Low emissions). (Source: IPCC)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000NE

NW

YH

EM

WM

EE

LN

SE

SW

WA

SC

NI

UK

Population TrendsUK population is currently 62M rising to 69-86M (2050s)

& 72-113M (2080s)


Wales

Age Distribution

(Source: ONS)

Temperature Effects• Increases in annual mean temperatures of around 2 to 5oC under a

medium emissions scenario (A1B) by 2080.

• Quantification of preventable heat- and cold-related mortality and morbidity, focusing on vulnerable population groups.

• Understanding the role of the Urban Heat Island in exacerbating the impact of climate change on mortality rates.

• Improved understanding of the role of planned adaptation strategies and long-term physiological changes.

• Provision of input to public health plans, and evaluation of their effectiveness.

© UK Climate Projections 2009

UK (2020s)



UK (2050s)



UK (2080s)


Days per year with CET > 20oC

Days per year with CET < 0oC

August 2003 heatwave2003

mortality

Baseline mortality

2003 mortality

Baseline mortality

(Johnson et al. 2005)


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1

2

3

4

5

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Agg

rega

te c

ount

of d

ays

Mea

n da

ily d

eath

s (p

er 1

00K

popu

latio

n)

Mean Temperature oC

England & Wales deaths

days

Cold effects Heat effects

Temperature Effects

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12 UK heat

Relative Risks: Heat (all ages)per 1oC increase above temp threshold (93rd %ile)


1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06UK cold

Relative Risks: Cold (all ages) per 1oC decrease below temp threshold (60th %ile)



1,9743,281

7,040

12,538

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s

A: Heat deaths

69114

233

409

0

250

500

750

1000

2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s

A: Heat deaths

UK Wales

Heat deaths (per year for all ages)


41,408 42,842 40,397 36,506

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s

B: Cold deaths

2,476 2,4722,176

1,872

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s

B: Cold deaths

UK Wales

Cold deaths (per year for all ages)

Temperature mortality (by age group)

794

468

1573

685

421

1419

569

341

1153

4 56

274

933

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Cold deaths /100K (mean)2000s2020s2050s2080s

0 4 18

79

1 626

113

1 1148

206

2 17

77

327

0

200

400

600

0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Heat deaths /100K (mean)2000s2020s2050s2080s

Mean estimates of heat- and cold-related deaths in the UK per year per 100,000 population

(Hajat et al. 2013)


Urban Heat IslandWest Midlands

O C

Modelled air temperature(Heaviside et al. 2013)

Birmingham11pm 5th August 2003


Air Pollution• Understanding how climate change interacts with ground level ozone

and other climate sensitive air pollutants.

• Investigation of the range and extent of health effects of ozone, including those associated with chronic exposure.

• Understanding how vulnerable people (e.g. those with pre-existing respiratory illness) need to be protected.

Annual mean Summer mean

Change in ground level O3 simulated by EMEP4UK for a +5oC increase in temperature relative to the base simulation for meteorological year 2003.

Ground Level Ozone

(Heal et al. 2013)


Ozone Mortality Burdens (no threshold)

(Heal et al. 2013)

Wales: 677 700 782 815 765

Aeroallergens• Climate change may result in earlier seasonal appearance of

respiratory symptoms and longer duration of exposure to aeroallergens (pollen and fungal spores).

• Changes in plant distribution can expose the population to pollen from more plants with different flowering seasons.

• Climate change / extreme weather events can change fungal speciation, distribution and allergenicity.

• Develop integrated system for modelling atmospheric concentrations of pollen, combining measurements with numerical forecast models.

Indoor Environment• Climate change may exacerbate health risks

and inequalities associated with building overheating, indoor air pollution, effects from flooding, dampness and biological contamination.

• Characterise the health risks and benefits associated with current and future building infrastructure under climate change scenarios.

• Research into how climate change mitigation and adaptation measures may affect the indoor environment (e.g. air quality and biological contamination in buildings).


Ultraviolet Radiation• Climate change may affect ambient levels of UVR, but the critical

factors affecting human exposure are lifestyle and behaviour.

• Understanding the likely changes in ground level UV radiation and the balance between the risk of skin cancer versus a beneficial increase in outdoor activity.

• Research into whether warmer summers will encourage more healthy outdoor activities and increased vitamin D production.

• UVR related public health messages for specific target groups such as young people and the elderly.

Floods (and Droughts) • Climate change is likely to affect river and

coastal flood risk.

• Some areas are particularly vulnerable to coastal floods: South Wales, NW Scotland, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, East Anglia and Thames Estuary.

• Understanding how floods (and droughts) affect both physical and mental health of populations.

• Development and evaluation of public health action plans, advice and guidance.

Changes in Precipitation – Winter

39

Changes in Precipitation – Summer


Vector Borne Diseases• It is likely that the range, activity and vector

potential of ticks and mosquitoes will increase in this century.

• Climate change may act on disease vectors (and their pathogens) both directly through a rise in temperature or change in precipitation.

• and indirectly through our adaptation to climate change, e.g. creation of coastal wetlands and habitat expansion.

Food and Water Borne Disease• Most water and food-borne pathogens show

seasonal variation, which may be directly or indirectly influenced by weather.

• Warmer weather will allow pathogens (e.g. Salmonella) to grow more readily in food, and will favour pests and fungal mycotoxins that affect food safety.

• Understanding of how seawater temperature can affect the risk of people being exposed to algal blooms and associated marine toxins.

• Climate change is likely to elevate food prices which may reduce the nutritional status of some population groups.


Health Co-benefits of Mitigation• Mitigation policies may achieve health, GHG

and economic benefits simultaneously (‘the triple bottom line’).

• Understanding the health co-benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions in transport, energy generation and food production.

• Evaluation of the health effects (both positive and negative) of emerging ‘low carbon’ technologies and biofuel policies.

Public Health Response

Conclusions • Climate change is likely to pose significant challenges to public health

in the UK by aggravating existing public health problems.

• Some UK regions (flood risk and densely populated areas) and population groups (elderly, deprived, ill) are more vulnerable.

• Research needed on current and future interactions between climate, and environmental and behavioural drivers that affect public health.

• The environmental public health sector needs to respond to these challenges by:

strengthening modelling, monitoring and surveillance systems

improving the resilience of public health infrastructure

improving the assessment & communication of climate related risks

developing the evidence on health benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation


Acknowledgements• Climate change and associated research in PHE/CRCE

• Department of Health

• Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

• NHS Sustainable Development Unit

• UK Climate Impacts Programme

• UK Met Office

Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2012) report available online

www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012


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