CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PRODUCTIVE SECTORS IN TANZANIA

Prof. P.K.T. MunishiSokoine University of Agriculture

Morogoro Tanzania

ContributorsMs Halima .H. Kilungu – Open University of Tanzania

Ms Happiness Jackson – Sokoine University of Agriculture

OBJECTIVES

• The general – To highlight the adverse impacts of climate

change to productive sectors of the and recommend adaptation measures for mainstreaming into MKUKUTA.

OBJECTIVES• Specific Objectives

– Assess the short-term, medium and long-term impacts of climate change to the economy

– Describe and analyze short, medium and long term sector specific adaptation and mitigation measures, including an estimate of their cost implications to the Tanzania economy.

– For Agriculture and Food Security Sector - take into consideration the current coping and adaptation strategies at sector and household level and the potential for scaling-up and replication in other parts of the country;

– List and evaluate the existing financing mechanisms within and outside the context of the UNFCCC + their effectiveness in addressing climate change, particularly adaptation need for vulnerable communities in Tanzania;

– Recommend measures for sector specific mainstreaming of climate change into MKUKUTA.

• To include a 1 – page fact sheet for each sector (at least agriculture, infrastructure, energy and health) describing in summary the consequences of climate change for the sector and suggestions for sector specific adaptation measures and costs estimates for the interventions vs. doing nothing

METHODOLOGY • Literature Review – Various Reports

• Technical consultations with key sectors,

• Fieldwork and stakeholders consultations including a stakeholder workshop

TRENDS IN TANZANIAN CLIMATE• Tanzania is not homogeneous from a climatic point of

view – variable climate depending on location

•

Arusha Musoma - Mara

Tabora Songea - Ruvuma

Temperature – Increase in all zones

TRENDS IN TANZANIAN CLIMATE

Trend of dry spells - Dolly

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 40 80 120

160

200

240

280

320

360

Day number (1 = 1 Sept)

Pro

babi

lity.

1935-50 1951-70 1971-88

Rainfall onset dates - Dolly

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Year

Day

num

ber

(1 =

1 S

ept.)

.

Cessation of rains - Dolly

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

193

0

193

5

194

0

194

5

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

Year

Day

num

ber

(1 =

1 S

ept.

).

Shortening of the Growing Season

Probability of Dry Spells Increasing

7

SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

• Weather patterns as influenced by climate variability differ for different zones.

• Means specific adaptation and mitigation measures in different areas depending on the observed variability.

• The impact of climate change threatens the livelihoods of those with:– low income, – food insecurity, – inadequate health services, – unstable energy supplies, and – fragile natural ecosystems. .

8

SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

Agriculture and Food Security• Increasing temperature, decreased/

unpredictable rainfall, increased evapotranspiration and seasonal unpredictability - consequences on: Drought Floods Decreased Crop yields (maize decrease average 33%

- but coffee – increase 18% Shifts in agro-ecological zones and agro –biodiversity increased outbreaks of pest and diseases, reduced germplasm diversity and, expansion of livestock keeping into farmland as the

area under range-land shrinks.

• Increased rainfall: floods, nutrient draining and soil erosion Create conducive environment for diseases such as

fungus hence low yield and thus food shortage

9

SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

• Both positive and negative consequences – The Ruvu basin, 10%

decrease in runoff – Pangani basin 6% decrease

in runoff – The Rufiji /Great Ruaha

River, increases in annual runoff of 5% and 11% at Mtera and Kidatu,

• Increasingly erratic rainfall– drought and floods, – hurricanes and storms, – increase in river flooding -

damage hydropower and human settlements occurring along these basins

– Alter availability of water for different uses - conflicts

Trends Code Station Name

Period

Parameters Annu

al JF MAM JJAS OND

Z -0.015 0.108

-0.17

0

-0.852

-0.10

8

1C1 Sigi at Lanzoni Estate

1957-1989 S DN UP DN DN DN

Z -0.581 0.581

-1.21

9

- 0.094

0.281 1H5 Ruvu at Kibungo

1959-1987 S DN DN DN DN UP

Z -0.506 1.576

-0.46

9

-0.319

0.488 1HB2 Mgeta at Mgeta

1959-1987 S DN UP DN DN UP

Z 0.506 0.469

0.657

0.150 -0.73

2

1HA9A

Ngerengere at Konga

1959-1987 S UP UP UP UP DN

Z -1.482 -0.39

4

-1.14

4

-0.469

0.281 1H8

Ruvu at Morogoro Rd.

1959-1987 S DN DN DN DN UP

Decreasing Flows all basins – long term

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SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTSClimate Change Impacts on Energy• Reduction of forest cover will affect the supply of fuel

wood which meets 92% of rural energy needs in Tanzania.

• Reduced river flow will affect water levels in hydroelectric dams leading to power shortage and increase electricity tariffs together with dependence on wood fuel.

• Shortage of hydropower and expensive fossil fuel have forced industries using these sources to switch to the use of fuelwood, driving further deforestation and forest degradation

• Energy shortage from traditional sources will force people and the government to explore the potential for biofuels.

• • However, biofuels farming will compete with food crops

and pressure to clear forests

• This will affect the livelihoods of communities and also to more CO2 emissions

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SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

Impact on Health

• Four major health hazards reported– Rural areas,

• Malaria, Dysentery, Cholera, and Meningitis

– Towns/Cities• Water bone diseases such as cholera,

malaria and typhoid

• Transmission is high during high temperatures and humidity, after the rain season.

• Malaria is now common in non traditional areas such as Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Iringa etc.

• 19% of national health spending is on Malaria

12

SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

Impacts on Forestry & Wildlife

• Areas where rainfall will increase:

– forests cover will increase•Areas where rainfall will decrease:

– forest cover will decrease– frequency and intensity of forest

fires will increase– impact to livelihoods dependent

on forests• Generally - changes in forest types, species composition and distribution

SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS

• Impacts on Energy Sector– Biomass and Hydropower - quite vulnerable to climate change impacts

– Reduced rainfall – reduced flow – impact on hydropower production.

– Multiple impacts – other sectors dependent on electricity will suffer the consequences.

– Could change perceptions and valuations of energy technology alternatives – big bearing and meaning for energy policies, decisions, and institutions

– Climate warming will change the patterns of energy consumption for cooling and will likely increase the amount of energy required for cooling.

– Will vary by region and by season, but will affect household and business energy demand and costs.

– Also likely to occur changes in energy consumption in key climate-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as transportation, construction, agriculture, with wide multiplier effect in other related sectors.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION• Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture and Food Security

– Use of improved crop varieties, – Pest risk analysis and improvement of pest management techniques– Breeding crop and livestock for drought and pest tolerance, – Awareness creation on climate change and adaptation strategies, – Strengthening early warning systems, – Research on pest resistant varieties, – Improved assessment tools for forecasting migratory pests including

Integrated crop and pest management – Better use of climate and weather data, weather forecasts, and other

management tools, – Improved soil and water conservation measures – water harvesting

• Generally– Design sustainable crop production and farming systems reflective of climate

change scenarios– Increase C sequestration on farms – AFOLU

• Reduced tillage (minimal cultivation), • High carbon crops (fruit or nut orchard, vines, tea, coffee) and • Agroforestry

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

• Adaptation Strategies in the Health Sector– Prevention, control and treatment of Malaria, Dysentery, Cholera,

Meningitis and Typhoid and phyto-medicine programmes, – Establishment of and strengthening community awareness programmes

on preventable major health hazards, – Establishment of health & climate collaboration & synthesis programs, – Well coordinated early warning system and emergency measures, at

national, regional and district level and – Provision of efficient equipment to assist early diagnosis in health

centres and availability of sufficient trained staff at all health facilities.– Map areas susceptible to climate change impacts – Build capacity in the area of climate change and health, establish and

develop emergency preparedness and response capacity– Develop database and monitoring system on climate change and

indicators of health impacts– Identify priority prevention and mitigation measures including mitigation

plans– Strengthen focused disease control program for prevention and

treatment of climate sensitive diseases. – Promote simple and cost effective technologies to prevent diseases

including household level water treatment and safe storage facilities

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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Adaptation Strategies in Water Management• Irrigation development

• Development of alternative water storage and water harvesting

• Strengthening integrated water resources management

• Development of both surface and subsurface water reservoirs

• Promotion of community based Catchment conservation and management

• Promotion of new water serving technologies in irrigation

• Development of recycle and reuse facility in industrial sector and potentially in households

• Floods control

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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Adaptation Strategies in the Energy SectorAdaptation Strategies in the Energy Sector•Over 92% of the domestic energy in Tanzania is wood-based Over 92% of the domestic energy in Tanzania is wood-based • Sustainable supply can be met through forest establishment: Sustainable supply can be met through forest establishment:

– smallholder forestry, smallholder forestry, – private woodlots, private woodlots, – agro-forestry, and agro-forestry, and – large scale fuelwood plantationslarge scale fuelwood plantations– Forest managementForest management

• Hydro power supply through improve Catchment management – Hydro power supply through improve Catchment management – Catchment Forestry Catchment Forestry •Bio-fuel production and carbon trade markets. Bio-fuel production and carbon trade markets. • Participate in AFOLU for carbon marketsParticipate in AFOLU for carbon markets

– proper land use planning and management, proper land use planning and management, – better agricultural practices e.g. agroforestry; conservation tillage; better agricultural practices e.g. agroforestry; conservation tillage; – sustainable fuelwood plantations; sustainable fuelwood plantations; – animal husbandry; animal husbandry; – soil C storagesoil C storage

• Alternative Energy - Solar, Hydro, Wind, Bio-charcoal and Biofuels Alternative Energy - Solar, Hydro, Wind, Bio-charcoal and Biofuels

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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

•Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in ForestryAdaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Forestry•Mitigation options:

– protection of existing forests; – afforestation, reforestation, and forest productivity improvements; – revegetation of degraded lands by tree /shrub planting, and – substitution of fossil fuels by sustain ably produced fuelwood

•Address the causes of deforestation and forest degradation:– provide affordable and sustainable alternative energy sources

gas, biogas and improved utilization of fuelwood and bio-fuels– avoid shifting cultivation through conservation tillage, use of

fertilisers and manure, and agroforestry– establish woodlots to meet timber demand

• Strengthening community based forest management practices • Assess impacts of Climate change on the forestry sector• Embark on better land use planning through REDD+ policy

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY

• CC will undermine the goals of MKUKUTA through its differential impact on a number of economic sectors

• National and local economies are already vulnerable to climate events:– floods, – droughts, – heat waves, – tropical storms

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY

• We have faced extreme weather events of drought and floods– Severe impact on its population (2 million people

suffering from food scarcity in 2005) – 2005 the Tanzanian GDP grew by 6.8% as

opposed to the 6.9% target – associated with drought

– Economic loss - 1% of GDP due to droughts in 2006

– Population suffering from food shortages and depressed household economy is expected to increase to 60% by 2030

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY

• The agricultural sector grew by only 5.2% in 2005 compared to 5.8% growth in 2004 again attributed to the prolonged drought in 2005/2006

• The 2008/2009 droughts have imposed big impacts on both crop production and livestock production

• Some areas experiencing a loss of livestock of more than 60%.– Kirya Ward in Mwanga district lost more 70% of it livestock

during the 2009 drought – Mwanga district received over 600 MT of food aid due to

poor harvests of agriculture crops associated with the drought

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY• More than120,000 MT of food aid was required this year as a result of

the 2008/2009 drought which affected more than 1.5 million people• Hunger caused mainly by drought has been the problem in many parts of

the country – Chamwino district

• food deficit of about 80% • >45% of its households being unable to buy food

• Floods – multiple impacts– Kilosa floods

• >3,000 people homeless

• Damage• >2,000 ha farmlands, • >350 ha of pasture lands• Transportation infrastructure.

• All these are likely to inflict multiple impacts on the countries economy.

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MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTAMKUKUTA

– In order to mainstream Climate Change in MKUKUTA

• Issues of climate change should feature and span across the three pillars of MKUKUTA but more importantly cluster I and II which touch directly on the productive sectors of the economy.

• Need to consider sector vulnerability and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies accordingly

• Note: All productive sectors are inclusive

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE IN MKUKUTA• Considerations for mainstreaming climate

change into MKUKUTA – Update the existing MKUKUTA goals to address climate

change impacts or– Add a cross cutting cluster on climate change with targets

such as issues of carbon footprint, reduction/mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions etc.

– Make use of existing research findings on vulnerability and climate change impacts on different sectors

– Support more research on vulnerability and impacts analysis including adaptive capacity of different socio-ecological systems to climate change

– Use findings on vulnerability and impacts as a basis for planning production in different sectors of the economy

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA

• Develop a framework in MKUKUTA with action areas that address both adaptation and mitigation:

– Support to climate actions in the development processes;– Mobilize additional innovative finance within the planning process to

address climate change mitigation;– Facilitate the development of market-based financing mechanisms for

climate change mitigation and adaptation and leverage private sector resources

– Support accelerated development and deployment of new technologies that ensure adaptation and mitigation actions and

– Enhance policy research, knowledge and capacity building in areas of climate change and its impacts

–

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA

• Central to mainstreaming climate change impacts in MKUKUTA there is a need to implement a Comprehensive Climate Change Resilient Development Strategy (CCRDS).

• Through the following steps: – Creation of an inclusive national or local effort to

implement processes that ensure mitigation and adaptation to climate change

– Identify priority measures within MKUKUTA process and define current and targeted penetration of the identified priority measures

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA

• Address existing obstacles to development implementation such as policy frameworks, institutional capacity and organization– may require deliberate revision of policies to incorporate

climate change mitigation measures

• Encourage sufficient funding from different sources – e.g. taking advantage of available technical skills,

institutional capacity building, policy and planning and knowledge dissemination.

• Recognize and mobilize different roles for each stakeholder including government ministries, NGOs, the private sector, communities and individuals

BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE

• Three broad approaches; – Infrastructure/asset based responses,– Technological/process optimization responses and – Systemic/behavioral responses

(1) Infrastructure/asset based responses– Require physical changes to existing assets or

infrastructure e.g. buildings, planting conservation or management of mangrove ecosystems buffers to disperse sea wave energy

– improving communication by roads, rail especially in rural areas to improve accessibility and access to markets

– expansion and improvement of irrigation infrastructure

BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT RISKS

• Technological/Process Optimization Responses– measures that require adoption or use of

different technology, process or input to mitigate climate change impacts

• Improved fertilizer application• Wider use of technology to improve the effectiveness of

irrigation• Improve and intensify irrigation technology

BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT RISKS

• Systemic/Behavioral Response– Measures that involve behavioral change or coordinated

systematic response

• Measures to protect from flood risks including awareness campaign for local communities/ residents in cities, towns and villages.

• Tools to assess homes, individual risk profiles, • Improved emergency response training• Self assessment of risks of flooding based on location

– Where the costs of severe weather events are prohibitive we can use a range of risk transfer measures e.g. insurance and alternative financial solutions for property as among the inclusions in portfolio of adaptation measures.

– Take into account measures that are already being implemented to promote economic development but would also strengthen climate resilience. For example irrigation policy (there is already an irrigation master plan in place)

EXISTING FINANCING MECHANISMS • GEF Support to Adaptation Action in Africa

• Funding Initiatives Outside of UNFCCC (Non-Convention Funds)

• UN Funded Projects Related to Climate Change in Tanzania

• Bilateral and Multilateral Donors outside the UN funding Climate Change Activities in Tanzania

EFFECTIVENESS AND ADEQUACY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FUNDING

• Funding available is fairly limited and has mainly been provided in the form of short-term projects.

• Funding landscape for climate change is undergoing rapid development. It is currently fairly complex, and financing is channelled through a multitude of mechanisms

• Complex funding landscape, and the fact that the guidelines and priorities for most funds are determined outside Tanzania, poses a major challenge for the GoT and its development partners

THANKS