CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: SOME KEY

ISSUESby

Graeme HugoARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the

Australian Population and Migration Research Centre,The University of Adelaide

Presentation to the Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration, Climate Service Center and the KlimaCampus at University of Hamburg

16-18 July 2013

Outline of Presentation • Introduction• The Asia-Pacific Context• The Relationship Between

Environmental Change and Migration

• Anticipated Hot Spots• Mobility Responses• Policy Issues• Conclusion

ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011Source: UNESCAP, 1984, 2011

Demographic Variable 1970 2011 Percent Change

1970-2011

Total Population (m) 2,041 3,998 +95.9

Percent of World Population 55.2 57.2 +3.6

Annual Growth Rate3 2.2 0.9 -59.1

Percent Urban3 24 43 +79.2

Percent Aged 0-143 40 25 -37.5

Percent Aged 65+3 4 7 +75.0

Dependency Ratio3 80 47 -41.3

Total Fertility Rate2,3 5.4 2.1 -99.6

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Males3

52 68 +30.8

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Females3

54 72 +33.3

1 The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.

2 TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970. 3 Includes Central Asia in 2011.

The Asian-Pacific ContextAsia-Pacific: Population, 2012

Source: Population Reference Bureau 2012

World output sharesSource: Australian Government 2012

Share of world output growthSource: Australian Government 2012

Key Changes• Rapid Economic growth• Social change – role of women, education• Demographic change• Urbanisation• Increased international interaction –

regional organisation• Increased personal mobility

Number of Chinese Travelling Abroad for Business and Tourism 1981-2003 and Total Number of Outbound Trips from China, 1997-2010

Source: Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 2004, 30; Asia Times Online, 9 February 2006; Li and Fung Research Centre, 2010; Yu, 2010; Chao, 2011

World International Migrant Stock in Thousands, 2010Source: United Nations 2009

Migrant Stocks by Country of Origin, 2010Source: World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix

Total Refugees and People in Refugee like Situations by Country of Asylum, End 2011

Source: UNHCR 2012

Remittances Received (US$m), 2012Source: World Bank Remittances database, November 2012

The number of international migrants: absolute change and percentage change between 2000 and 2013, by region

Source: United Nations 2013

-202468

10121416

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0

20

40

60

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140Absolute change % change

Internal Migration• Much greater than international migration• Mobility is now within the calculus of

choice of all Asian migrants• Massively increased circular mobility• Urbanisation key factor

Indonesia: Number of Persons per Motor Vehicle, 1950-2009

Source: Biro Pusat Statistik publications on Motor Vehicles and Length of Roads

Year Persons/Motor Vehicle

(including Motor Cycles)

Persons/Motor Vehicle

(excluding Motor Cycles)

1950 1,507 1,691

1961 263 447

1971 129 300

1980 38 123

1990 20 64

2000 11 39

2005 6 23

2009 3 18

Asia: Urban and Rural Population 1950 to 2030Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

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4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

0

10

20

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40

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Rural Urban % Urban

Year

Num

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% U

rban

A huge population redistribution has already occurred in Asia

1950 2005 2050Number urban (m) 230 1,480 3,000Number rural (m) 1,122 2,259 1,745

* A significant change in population distribution has occurred in the last 40 years. Why not just as large a change in the next 40 years?

World cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for climate-related hazards - floods, cyclones and drought

Source: CARE International 2009, p.26

Asia: Population Affected by Natural Disasters, 1976 to 2011

Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) International Disaster Database, http://www.emdat.be/, accessed 3rd February 2012

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

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1990

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Year

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Population and Climate Change HotspotsSource: www.populationaction.org/Publications

Major Climate Change Hazards

• The Asia and Pacific regions have been identified as some of the global regions most at risk of experiencing natural disasters – major areas of climate change impact

• Strong correlation between countries most at risk of experiencing environmental hazards and those at greatest risk from climate change

• Main climate change impact areas…- coastal vulnerability, inundation, storm surges, deltas, coastal plains- cyclones and typhoons- riparian flooding, impact of glacier melt- water stress- atolls, low lying islands

Southern and Eastern Asia: Estimated Population Density Within a 5m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010

Southeast Asia: Location of Hot Spot Areas Likely to be Most Impacted by Coastal Flooding Associated with Sea Level Rise, Riparian Flooding,

Cyclones/Typhoons and Water Stress as a Result of Climate ChangeSource: Yusuf and Francisco, 2009, 6

Tuvalu: Estimated Population Density Within a 5m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010

Projecting Impacts of Climate Change on Migration

• Too many uncertainties to project numbers of migrants

• Can project populations in hot spots

Indicative Population Projections

• To underline the urgency of the need for development of appropriate institutions and mechanisms to cope with the impact of climate change.

• To give an indication of the areas that are most likely to be impacted by climate change induced mobility in order to target intervention strategies.

Southeast Asia: Population in Hot Spot Areas at High Risk of Climate Change Impacts, 2000

Country

Total

Population

2000

(’000)

Percent of National Population at Risk of:

Coastal

Flooding Cyclones

Riparian

Flooding Water Stress

Brunei 317 - - - -

Cambodia 13,145 18.0 1.0 100.0 -

East Timor 739 - - - -

Indonesia 212,060 25.9 - - 68.2

Lao PDR 5,275 - 64.2 - -

Malaysia 22,334 29.3 - - -

Myanmar 47,833 34.1 9.4 32.7 48.9

Philippines 75,652 39.3 100.0 7.7 -

Singapore 3,923 - - - -

Thailand 62,770 21.3 9.1 - 65.3

Vietnam 78,114 67.8 60.5 100.0 -

Total (number ’000) 522,163 176,196 136,627 112,751 204,048

0-4 yrs.5-9 yrs.

10-14 yrs.15-19 yrs.20-24 yrs25-29 yrs30-34 yrs.35-39 yrs.40-44 yrs.45-49 yrs.50-54 yrs.55-59 yrs.60-64 yrs.65-69 yrs.70-74 yrs.75-79 yrs.80-84 yrs.85-89 yrs.90-94 yrs.95-99 yrs.100+ yrs.

-0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

Age-Sex Structure 2006, Hotspot Areas Females(%)

Males(%)

Projected Total Megacity Populations at Risk Allowing for Sea Level Rises of 1 and 5 Metres (’000), 2000

Total 2000 Population

Sea Level Rise 1m 5m Bangkok 9,667,300 193,606 4,077,760 Ho Chi Minh City 5,545,760 630,135 3,405,010 Jakarta 19,682,700 713,960 1,755,040 Manila 14,071,900 36,841 398,650 Singapore 3,327,740 0 0

Nations with the Highest Numbers and Proportions of Their Urban Population within the Low Elevation Coastal Zone – The Continuous Area Along the Coast That Is Less Than 10 Metres Above Sea Level

Source: McGranahan et al., 2008

Numbers

Proportions

Migration Policy Responses• Most response will be in-situ• Must also realise some groups will not be

able to adapt at all• Overwhelmingly internal migration is

involved• Migration responses are of two types

– Adaptation– Displacement

Migration as Adaptation

• Strong tradition of mobility as a “coping mechanism” during drought, disasters

• Several forms– Sending of some family members to other locations– Temporary displacement (in acute disasters)– Circular migration/commuting– “Calling in” remittance obligations which remain

dormant in normal times• More available to better off sections of community

Migration as Displacement• Last resort• Often involves poorest because they have no

access to adaptation options• Much experience of forced displacement in Asia

- Land resettlement Transmigrasi- Disaster Temporary and Permanent Displacement- Mega projects (Three Dams)

Linear Vs Non Linear Impacts of Climate Change on Migration

 1. significantly increase the numbers of people

migrating using established patterns both internally and externally in a linear manner, primarily via voluntary mechanisms; and

2.non-linear changes involves creating new migration flows that result as thresholds of resilience or tipping points being reached. May be spontaneous or involve policy intervention.

Key Issues

• Needs to be considered in context of existing migration, not separately

• Can influence migration through impact at both origin and destination

• Crucial role of migration networks• Inter-relationship with poverty – poor least

able to use migration as adaptation more likely to be forcibly displaced

Key Policy Issues• Most of mobility adjustments will be internal• Key international dimensions

- funding of internal adjustments- role of international migration as an adaptation mechanism- role of international migration in resettlement

• Necessary for setting up an international fund on “polluter pays” principles to fund adaptation and resettlement

• Should there be a dedicated fund for migration adaptation–resettlement or should it be a fund for all adaptation?

Key Migration Policy Issues –Migration and Adaptation

• Build on role of migration as a facilitator of development and building resilience in origin areas.

• Focus on high risk areas in encouraging internal and international migration.

• Policy to facilitate and enhance existing flows and in some cases help create new flows.

• Need to involve poorest groups in them.

(cont.)

• Introduction of best practice into temporary labour migration

• Improving governance.• Need for more ‘development friendly’ approach

in destination countries (e.g. RSE in New Zealand).

• Based on recognition of the reality of the effects of ageing and low fertility in high income nations

• National Spatial Development Policy – encouraging development away from hot spots over the next five decades.

Resettlement of Entire Communities:A Last Resort

• Focus of attention – resettlement on both a temporary and permanent basis will need to be planned for.

• Need to mesh responses with existing disaster management systems (Hyogo Framework for Action).

• Some permanent displacement will be necessary, most within countries.

• Need to build on huge body of existing knowledge on planned resettlement of displaced populations.

Barriers to Establishing a New International Regime to Protect

Climate Change Migrants• Difficulty of separating climate change from

other drivers of migration.• Reluctance of potential destination

countries to accept a new category of asylum seeker

• Lack of existing international cooperation on migration in Asia and the Pacific.

• Short term vs long term goals.

Advantages to Accommodating Climate Change Migration Within Existing Structures

• The option is immediately available to climate change forced migrants.

• It overcomes the manifest suspicion of destination country governments and societies existing, let alone expanded, ‘asylum’ categories of immigration.

• It obviates any need to set up new institutions, structures and mechanisms.

• There are for many nations a plethora of different categories of migration which provides a range of ways in which climate change displaces could be accommodated.

• The system would utilise existing migration networks where they exist to facilitate migration and to assist settlement at the destination.

Need for Integration with Migration and Development Initiatives

• Siloization of 2 key migration discourses• Need to go beyond migration as a “coping

mechanism”• Migration can facilitate development and

poverty reduction if carefully planned• Need to integrate with development

initiatives

Recommendations

1. Consciousness Raising, Climate Change Adaptation Plans

2. Need for an Improved Empirical Basis- Data Collection on Migration- Targeted Case Studies

3. Capacity Building and Improvement in Governance in Migration

4. Enhanced Regional and International Cooperation5. Develop Best Practice in Migration6. Effective Mechanisms for Funding Migration Responses7. Integrate with Disaster Management8. Enhancing Resistance in Communities