CLIMATE CHANGE AND PACIFIC ISLAND WATER RESOURCES:

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

Eileen L. SheaEast-West CenterJanuary 15, 2003

(SheaE@EastWestCenter.org)

A Voice from the Pacific

“For Pacific Island states, climate change and its associated effects are our main security concern.”

Leo A. FalcamHonolulu AdvertiserAugust 12, 2001

Climate Counts in the PacificYear-to-year variability (esp. ENSO) has significant consequencesAsia-Pacific communities among the most vulnerable (esp. coastal areas)Economic plans dependent on climate-sensitive sectors or resourcesUnique ecosystems and rich biodiversityWater resources already stressed in some areas

Pacific Assessment ObjectivesDevelop a more complete understanding of regional consequences of climate vulnerability for Pacific Island jurisdictions, considering economic, social and environmental stressesSupport for dialogue among scientists, governments, and communities in the Pacific region that promotes the use of climate information to support decision making

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR PACIFIC ISLANDS

General warming trend (1.3°C by 2034; 2.6°C by 2099 in fastest warming areas)Changes in precipitation, with some areas drier despite general trend toward enhanced rainfallChanges in natural variability—possible emergence of “persistent El Niño conditions” with significant regional implications

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR PACIFIC ISLANDS

Increased ocean temperatures with implications for sensitive ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs) and fisheriesPotential changes in tropical storms(due to increased SST and changes in ENSO)Changes in sea level – long-term trend and periodic changes associated with ENSO

Pacific Islands Regional Assessment

Focus on Vulnerability in order to:

Understand exposure & sensitivity (impacts)

Address adaptive capacity (resilience)

Develop appropriate response options

Engage all experts in shared learning and joint problem-solving

Pacific Assessment:Key Issues

Providing Access to Fresh WaterProtecting Public HealthEnsuring Public Safety & Protecting Community Infrastructure(extreme events)Sustaining TourismSustaining AgriculturePromoting Wise Use of Coastal & Marine Resources

Providing Access to Fresh WaterSome Initial Thoughts

“Water is Gold” – cascading effectsLimited (natural) storage capacityDependence on rainfall; subject to seasonal and year-to-year variationsIncreasing demand – population growth and economic developmentInfrastructure constraintsInstitutional challenges

Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience

Improve Infrastructure/Enhance Capacity

Evaluate Existing Assets and Develop Unused/Alternative Sources

Incentives for Water Conservation and Wastewater Recovery and Reuse

Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience

Plan for Extremes (particularly droughts)Integrate Climate Forecasts into decision makingEmphasize Self-Sufficiency in Long-Term PlanningPromote Public Awareness, Education and Dialogue

Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience

Encourage Public-Private Partnerships Among Large-Scale Users (tourism, agriculture, military)

Pursue Watershed Protection and Restoration

Emphasize Integrated Water and Land Use Management; Explore Traditional Practices (e.g., Ahupua’a)

Reducing VulnerabilityBe Proactive – “Meninkairoir”Meet today’s needs while planning for the futureAddress current constraints on critical infrastructure (water, health, transportation, etc.)Plan for extremes; comprehensive emergency managementIntegrate climate information in decision making; flexible management approachesEducation, public awareness & dialogueBuild and sustain critical partnerships

•Identification of information needs•Product design and evaluation•Future needs and opportunities

•Product development and distribution•Information interpretation/translation•Communication/outreach/education

Users of Climate Information

Providers of Climate Information

Continuous Interaction and Information Flow

Assessment as Regional Information SystemAssessment as Regional Information System

Assessment as Continuing Process of Assessment as Continuing Process of Shared Learning and Joint Problem SolvingShared Learning and Joint Problem Solving