Climate Change and

Regional Planning

Academy of Natural Sciences

May 6, 2008

Robert GraffManager, Economic Analysis & Coordination

Manager, Climate Change InitiativesDelaware Valley Regional Planning Commission

Overview

What is DVRPC? Impacts Mitigation vs. Adaptation DVRPC Climate Initiatives Program Area Impacts on Delaware Valley Estuary (PA) Impacts on Transportation Sector Reasons for Hope?

Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the Philadelphia region, created in 1965

Bi-state (PA/NJ), nine counties

Board made up of representatives of the counties, major cities, key state agencies, Governors’ representatives

Staff of over 120The DVRPC Region is located at the heart of the US east coast

The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC)

Overview of DVRPC’s work Transportation Planning Air Quality Smart Growth Planning Environmental Planning Housing and Economic

Development, Population and Employment

Forecasts Connections: The Plan for a

Sustainable Delaware Valley

2 states, 9 counties and 352 local governments

Over 5.5 million residents Strong “Home-Rule” control of land

use Declining cities and older suburbs

with suburban sprawl Small local governments with

limited capacity and strong property rights

Traditional divide between land use and transportation planning

Planning Context

Development Trends

1930 1970 2000

222,000 acres developed; 3.3 million people

641,000 acres developed; 5.1 million people

920,000 acres developed; 5.4 million people

The rate of land developed increased at five times the rate of population growth over the last 70 years

A Love of Cars

Regional Transportation Trends% Increase between 1980 and 2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 2000

Year

VMT

Automobile

Population

Regional Commuting Trends

Public Transportation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Drive Alone Carpool Other

1980

2000

Impacts

Brief summary of impacts: Grain-belt drying for crops Sea-level rise (150 ft inland per foot up) Tropical diseases no longer frozen Loss of unique ecosystems, especially with

humans in way of migration Tropical cyclones that form likely to become

larger (more energy/fuel) Tendency for more floods and more droughts

(more water in air; faster drying) PA/NJ trends mirror global trends

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. Field

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia

UN-IPCC(best estimate)

Smaller or slower changes.

Larger or fasterchanges.

Problems

Pro

bab

ility

Richard Alley’s (Penn State, IPCC) interpretation of probability of various levels of future problems.

Mitigation vs. Adaptation

MitigationPolicies

AdaptationPolicies

ImpactsClimate ChangeGHG Emissions

Sectoral Emissions: NJ and PA

NJ 2002: 120 MtCO2/yr

PA 2000: 317 MtCO2/yr

Pie graphs: NJ: A Blueprint for Action: Policy Options to Reduce New Jersey’s Contribution to Global Warming, Environment New Jersey Research and Policy Center, September 2006; PA: From PEC/CCS Roadmap, June 2007.

Does not include CO2 emissions from 28% imported power

Does not exclude CO2 emissions from exported power (32 tons) or from sequestration (14 tons) in forests

Industrial Processes 3%

Waste Management 2%

Agriculture 2%

Fossil Fuel Industry 6%

Electricity Production

37%

Transportation 23%Res/Comm/Indus.

(excl. fossil fuel industry)

27%

Three keys

Reduce demand for services that require energy (e.g., drive less, heat less)

Increase energy efficiency (e.g., higher MPG, better insulation)

Use lower carbon energy (e.g., wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, tidal)

Priority #1: Use Less Energy

In industrialized countries more than 60% of oil is used in vehicles, more than 60% of electricity in buildings.

Major changes required, for example:

Tax policy and legal frameworks that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl.

Focus on reducing VMT while maintaining mobility.

New norms of business and professional face-to-face contact that enable reduced work-related travel.

Priority #2: Use Cleaner Energy

DVRPC Climate Change Initiatives Program Area

Leadership Role

Activity at state, county, municipal level Encouraging, but not well-coordinated Potential for confusion, incompatibilities,

and inefficient use of limited resources DVRPC, as well-established coordinator,

can bring together entities in region

Elements of Program Area

Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast (kick-off meeting tomorrow)

Stakeholder Engagement for Action Planning Greenhouse Gas Reduction Options Evaluation Regional Climate Change Action Plan Climate Change and Energy Concerns Integrated

Throughout DVRPC Activities Support Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories and

Forecasts for Government Operations

Integrate Issues Into DVRPC’s Work

Integrate climate change and energy into appropriate aspects of DVRPC’s work, including Long Range Plan

Elevate GHG reduction and energy conservation implications of long-standing DVRPC goals, e.g.: brownfield development ozone reduction transit-oriented development.

New work, e.g.: GHG emission/energy usage of TIP projects Take climate change impacts into account in new projects

DVRPC and Climate Change: Impacts

Wetlands Salinity Hazardous Waste Sites Public Access Sites Water Quality

2004 Report: Impact of 1m Sea Level Rise on:

Background

• PA CZM Study• Investigate impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on

wetlands, salinity, hazardous waste sites, water quality, and public access

• Published 2004

• U.S. EPA Study • Develop an understanding of likely future responses

to SLR• Investigate issues unique to Pennsylvania’s coast• To be published shortly

Sea Level Rise

• Sea level rose 27 cm (1 foot) at Philadelphia in the last century

• Sea level is expected to rise 1 m (3-4 feet) in the next century

• Impacts of sea level rise: inundation, erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion

Wetlands

• Regulations protect wetlands from human disturbance, but not from sea level rise

• Coastal Zone contains 1,466 acres of tidal wetlands and 1,664 acres of nontidal wetlands

• When seas rise wetlands migrate inland and grow upward

• Wetland migration will be blocked by existing development and shoreline armoring

• Existing regulations require no buffer to accommodate wetland migration

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Wetlands

• National study: • 87 cm sea level rise would result in a net loss of 13% of the Mid-Atlantic

region’s 733,000 acres of tidal wetlands

• 159 cm rise would destroy 85% of tidal wetlands

• Impact of development and armoring: all tidal wetlands would be destroyed

• Presence of development and armored shores will lead to heavy wetland losses in PA

• Waterfront revitalization plans can complement efforts to create buffers between development and rising seas

• SLR will promote the upstream migration of the salt line

• Farthest historical advance of the salt line: river mile 102 in 1965

• A 2.4-foot SLR would push the salt line to river mile 110 and an 8.2-foot rise would push it to mile 130 given a recurrence of the 1965 drought

• Philadelphia Baxter water intake is at river mile 110

• Impacts: Drinking water intakes, industrial users, groundwater, oyster industry, ecological dislocations

• Controlling salinity will require integrated water resource management

Salinity

Hazardous Waste Sites

• Coastal Zone contains Superfund sites, landfills, hazardous waste facilities, and other contaminated sites

• Sites will be subject to erosion, flooding, inundation, and changing water tables

• SLR will bring new sites into the floodplain

• Floodplain maps will need to remain up-to-date

• Contaminated sites will need to be cleaned up before seas rise

Public Access

• Coastal Zone contains 46 publicly owned access sites

• How will SLR impact public access?

• Public access, SLR and waterfront revitalization

• Themes of waterfront revitalization:

• Waterfront is a valuable public amenity

• Create and integrate greenways, trails, and open spaces

• Restore riparian ecological conditions and preserve wetlands

• Mixed-use communities

Impacts on Transportation

From Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation (TRB 2008)

Increase in hot days/heat waves Liftoff limits at hot weather airports Limitations on hours of construction Thermal expansion of bridges/pavement/rail Pavement integrity/rutting/migration (asphalt)

Arctic Warming Ice free northwest passage--threat to ports in our region? Thawing of permafrost

Impacts on Transportation Rising sea levels/Storm surges

Interruption of travel in coastal/low lying areas More severe storm surges requiring evacuations Closure of airports (e.g., Philadelphia, Newark) Inundation of roads, rail lines, runways Flooding of tunnels and other low lying infrastructure’ Erosion of bridge supports Changes needed in harbors/ports (e.g., bridge clearance)

Increase in intensity of precipitation Traffic disruption due to flooding Airline delays Flooding of road/rail, including washouts

Impacts on Transportation More frequent and strong hurricanes

Interruption of air service More frequent and costly evacuations Debris interruptions Greater probability of infrastructure failure Failure of bridge decks Damage to ports and harbors

Key Lessons for Planners

Historical data is no longer useful in predicting future for planning purposes

Bio-fuels\Low Carbon Fuels\Measurement issues – LCA Many people thinking about climate change, but many

more are not or are not doing so rigorously—change is afoot, but danger of ready, fire, aim

Theme of TRB 2009: “Transportation, Energy, & Climate Change”

Challenges to Change

Politics at all levels are not good at dealing with issues in the future vs. the present (Social Security, bridges, etc.) or causes vs. symptoms

Land use controls are extremely difficult Capital shortage Mitigation is inherently altruistic (benefits

shared globally) while adaptation is inherently selfish (benefits captured locally)

Does Planning Matter?

[our research…] “… confirms the hypothesis that political decision makers gather information and do not use it; ask for more information and ignore it; make decisions first and look for relevant information afterwards; and, collect and process a great deal of information that has little or no direct relevance to decisions”

(Sager & Ravlum 2005--The Political Relevance of Planners’ Analysis: The Case of a Parliamentary Standing Committee)

The Case for Hope

CO2 reduction is actually a co-benefit of most of our

planning activities. Focusing development in core of region Getting jobs and work nearer to each other Increasing the role of NMT in the region (feet, bikes, rail) Support for car sharing

London’s mayor views its climate change action plan as primarily an economic and social development plan – “changing the wasteful way we all live and reaping the benefits.”

Managing for Climate Change = Sound Planning

Climate Change andRegional Planning

Academy of Natural Sciences

May 6, 2008

Robert GraffManager, Economic Analysis & Coordination

Manager, Climate Change InitiativesDelaware Valley Regional Planning Commission