CLIMATE CHANGE AND STRATEGIES
FOR ADAPTATION OF RUBBER
PLANTATION
IN MALAYSIA
Presentation Overview
Climate change will affect rubber plantation?
Higher temperatures, less precipitation, more
variability
Likely negative effects: Where and how much?
Projected Results
Adaptation/resilience: Rubber will need
New varieties/clones, more infrastructure, changes in management
practices and policies
Conclusion
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
ON RUBBER PLANTATION
RUBBER ZONE FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIARUBBER ZONE FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
State Rubber
Based on
Climate
Rubber
Based on
Topography
Rubber
Based on
Tradition
Total
(Hectare)
Rubber
Area 2004
(Hectare)
%Area of
Rubber
Zone
Perlis 9,528 - - 9,528 9,528 100
Kedah 78,218 24,786 13,362 116,366 128,959 90
Kelantan 55,232 64,971 - 120,204 143,218 84
N. Sembilan - 79,749 5,155 84,904 122,835 69
Selangor - - 11,954 11,954 37,868 32
Pulau Pinang - - 1,673 1,673 2,678 62
Melaka - - 31,246 31,246 49,200 64
Pahang - 241,351 - 241,351 275,784 88
Perak 10,199 90,977 31,656 132,832 151,088 88
Terengganu 23,780 - 18,920 42,700 58,011 74
Johor - 66,101 60,024 126,125 161,465 78
Total 176,957 567,935 173,991 918,883 1,140,634 81
Wan Noordin et al (2005)
Topography 567,935 ha
Tradition 173,991 ha
Climate 176,957 ha
Legend
RUBBER ZONE IN
PENINSULAR
MALAYSIA
PREDICTED
TEMPERATURE & RAINFALL
AND
PROJECTED GROWTH/YIELD
Prediction is based on:
1. Future Hydro Climate Database(Pangkalan Data Iklim Hidro Akan Datang)
Thanks to NAHRIM
2. Hevea Growth and Production Model
KEDAH
Topography 24,786 ha
Tradition 13,362 haClimate 78,218 ha
Legend
Rainfall (Kedah)
1906.11878.3
1779.9
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
Temperature (Kedah)
25.3
27.4
28.3
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0
C)
3. Rubber zone area
PERLIS
PULAU PINANG
Climate - 9,528 ha
Legend
Tradition 1,673 ha
Legend
Rainfall (Perak)
2796.1
2197.1 2284.5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
PERAK
Topography 90,977 ha
Tradition 31,656 ha
Climate 10,199 ha
Legend
Temperature (Perak)
28.0
28.6
29.0
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0C
)
PAHANG
Topography 241,351 ha
Legend
Rainfall (Pahang)
2219.1
2301.6
2232.7
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
Temperature (Pahang)
26.626.9
29.1
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0
C)
KELANTAN
Topography 64,971 ha
Climate 55,232 ha
Legend
Legend
Climate 23,780 ha
Tradition 18,920 ha
Legend
Rainfall (Kelantan)
1901.8 1905.6
1803.6
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
TERENGGANU
Temperature (Kelantan)
27.327.6
28.3
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0C
)
NEGERI SEMBILAN
SELANGOR
Tradition 11,954 ha
Legend
Topography 79,749 ha
Legend
Tradition 5,155 ha
Rainfall (Negeri Sembilan)
2276.1
1904.41683.8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
Temperature (Negeri Sembilan)
27.0
27.7
28.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0
C)
Tradition 31,246
Legend
Topography 66,101 ha
Legend
Tradition 60,024 ha
JOHOR
MELAKA
Rainfall (Johor)
1704.7 1740.12054.4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
P1984 P2025 P2050
Predicted year
mm
Temp
27.8
28.4
29.1
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
1984 2025 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(0
C)
Projected Results Northern area ( Perak, Kelantan gain less rain -
120mm ) & Negeri Sembilan gains less rainfall (- 600
mm/year)
Temperature rise in the range of 1 2.2o C
Due to increased water stress, therefore projected
results:
delayed immaturity period up to 4 months (Kedah &
Kelantan) & 6 months (Negeri Sembilan)
reduce of production up to 18 % ( Kedah & Kelantan )
while 20 % for Negeri Sembilan
Impact on production
State Zone area Mature area Production Projected Less Value at
(Ha) (Ha) - 70% Production RM5000/tonne
(tonne) (tonne) (tonne)
Kedah 116366 81456 114039 93512 20527 $102,634,812
Kelantan 120204 84143 117800 96596 21204 $106,019,928
N. Sembilan 84904 59433 83206 66565 16641 $83,205,920
TOTAL 321474 225032 315045 258337 56708 $283,540,068
Assumption:
70% area under tapping
Average yield - 1400kg/ha/year
Challenges to all !!!
and
adaptation needed
Adaptation in rubber plantation is
essential and to do that;
Good development policy is important first step to ensure higher incomes from rubber areas,
- do we need to revise our rubber zone
- if not, do we need to expand our plantation area to meet our national
production
- suitable planting systems for rubber i.e.
monocrop or agroforestry
use sustainable, provide resilience program/TOT
program in the face of climate change
participatory identification of current vulnerabilities and
risk reduction
reduction activities (e.g. national and sub-national early
warning systems);
strengthening capacity of communities to manage their
resources (e.g. savings )
raising awareness of farmers and building capacities
Location, location, location
Climate change effects vary across the landscape
Whats needed?
- Location-specific analysis
- Location-specific programs and policy measures
Adaptation needs
Time and also fund available for research to
improve our understanding of the interactions
between climate change and rubber
- different variety/clone or species;
- new crop varieties (rubber agroforestry)
- adaptive management with suitable species
and silvicultural practices
Increased research in suitable up-to-date
technology
- Higher spatial resolution and more relevant outputs from climate models
- better integration of rubber into integrated
assessment models
- better biophysical and socioeconomic modeling
of climate change-rubber interactions
Increased research in soil conservation, water
storage and management
- promotes low tillage and maintenance of
permanent soil cover that can increase soil organic
matter and reduce impacts from drought, flooding,
erosion, or heavy rain
- efficient fertiliser program for rubber, integrated fertiliser
management
Policy improvements associated with
environmental services
- credit schemes, agricultural inputs, agricultural production, land use, etc.);
- enhancing the use of technological options to
manage climate variability (compounding, properties
of rubber)
Conclusions
Adaptation to Climate Change in rubber plantation,
should highlight the needs for action in the
following priority areas
methods and tools
data and observations
climate modelling, scenarios
climate related risks and extreme events
socio-economic information
adaptation planning and practices
research and
technologies for adaptation
Lastly
Year 2025 in only one cycle of rubber plantation
Year 2050 is plus another cycle of rubber plantation
Are we ready for that?
Thank you