Climate Change and Sustainable Development

Presentation to Hanoi University

Koos Neefjes, UNDP-VN, 13 April 2010

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Our Common Future (WCED, 1987)

Sustainable development is “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

This “does imply … limitations imposed by the present state of technology and social organisation on environmental resources and by the ability of the biosphere to absorb the effects of human activities. But technology and social organisation can be both managed and improved to make way for a new era of economic growth.”

Contents

A. The basics of global climate change

B. Effects & impacts of climate change

C. GHG mitigation

D.The UN and climate change

E. Conclusions3

A. The Basics of Global Climate

Change

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What is global climate change?

“the variation of the global climate over time”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

Global temperature rise by 2100, by 1.8oC to 6.4oC

Most of the warming is because of human activities

Sea level rise up to 59cm predicted by 2100, but if the West Antarctic ice sheet collapses several meters

Maximum and minimum temperatures will rise More hot days over land areas and fewer cold

days More extreme events: rainfall, droughts,

cyclones ….

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Green House Effect: “the increase in the Earth's average

temperature”

Green house gasses: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide: anthropogenic warming

Aerosols (e.g. dust): some cooling Tropospheric ozone changes (e.g.

hydrocarbons): warming Land use changes: net cooling (radiation

increase)

Causes

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Global commons: climate is a public good Green House Effect El Niño and La Niña The UNFCCC – United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (1994) The Kyoto Protocol (emissions targets)

(2002) The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM:

carbon credits that can be traded) The Conference of Parties to the UNCCC

(COP 15 12/2009): emissions & adaptation targets?

Key terms

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Temperature & CO2

Rising emissions during 1856 to 2004, especially from using fossil fuel

CO2 emissions per capita

In 1990 & 2004, for example :US, Russia, Viet Nam, Ethiopia

Viet Nam is low, but rising rapidly.

Common but differentiated responsibility for the carbon footprint

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Limits to emissions growth

The 21st Century carbon budget is set at 1,456 Gt CO2 to keep within 2°C and avoid dangerous climate change.

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Sustainable emissions pathway

• The world cut 50 % by 2050

• Developed countries cut 80 % by 2050

• Developing countries cut 20 % by 2050

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B. Effects & Impacts of Climate Change

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Victims Poor countries Small Island States Low countries, deltas, coastal zones People with livelihoods depending on natural resources The poorest and most vulnerable (elderly, children) Basic services: (local) schools, clinics, … water Poor rural and urban communities Industries, urban areas, especially if low lying, coastal Ecosystems: external shocks Wildlife, on land and in seas

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Increased “vulnerability”:

Of specific people (/groups) to specific “events”:

Sea level rise, enhanced saline water intrusion More extreme floods (rainy season) & droughts

(dry season); heat waves Increased frequency and intensity of typhoons;

and changed landfall patterns Increasing water shortages and growing demand Spread of plant pests and diseases Spread of disease vectors (dengue, malaria)

Increased vulnerabilities of the poorer groups, to a range of threats … a threat to human development

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C. GHG Mitigation

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50% likelihood if …. Limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial

levels Stabilize atmospheric concentration CO2 at

450 ppm Pathway for 50% emissions reduction

implemented Rich countries cut emissions by 30% by 2020

and 80% by 2050 International cooperation on technology

transfer and finance for CC Adaptation and GHG Mitigation

Part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation and (CC) vulnerability reduction

Avoiding Dangerous Global Climate Change?

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Developing countries & GHG emissions

“common but differentiated responsibilities” for historic increase in atmospheric CO2 (the main GHG) Massive increase in energy demand: electricity

(coal !), transport, …. as a result of economic growth

Inefficient energy use / low tech production facilities / wastful behaviour

Increasing GHG emissions from agriculture with population growth, and especially with economic growth (meat, dairy)

Biodiversity degradation continues and e.g. increased risk of forest fires (Indochina, Indonesia, ….)

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How to cut GHG emissions ? Mitigation targets of rich countries & large

countries(!?) Taxation and cap-and-trade of carbon, to

stimulate innovation & technology transfer, and create revenue for CC adaptation, especially in developing countries

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): opportunities for economic and social development Raise awareness and save costs High-tech, innovation (invest in R&D; financial

instruments) Develop and implement standards and regulation Agricultural options for mitigation: wetland rice,

biogas Trees can protect coasts, retain water; especially

Reduced Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

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D. The UN and Climate Change

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CC support by the UN: examples

Climate: a global common good (so: the UN!) Convene members, and agree: the UNFCCC;

policy dialogues & coordination (internationally, nationally)

CC Adaptation: new initiatives on disaster mitigation (Hyogo); agriculture; health & education; urban planning; massive infrastructure investments needed

GHG Mitigation: improve energy efficiency with behaviour change and investment; mainstream, e.g. improve energy access of poor households and small enterprises; stimulate technological innovation; develop REDD; etc

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CC policy challenges for developed nations

Reduce emissions, now, against stricter targets than previously agreed (Kyoto ….)

A “Green New Deal” and not just bailing out the banks

Create new financing mechanisms, with new finance

Enable technology transfer, including those patented

Ensure that (international) carbon markets actually do help (global) sustainability

Support, develop, finance, large scale (regional) studies and investments for adaptation infrastructure

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CC policy challenges for developing nations

Formulate national strategies, plans, targets, actions

Technical, and policy-research capacity (costs!) CC not yet seen as a human development issue Lack of awareness and civil society mobilization Capacity building needs (CC policy, invstmnt plans) Develop market signals (tax, subsidy) & strengthen

regulatory capacity No financial resources but huge investment needs Identify “no regret” investments Carbon (cap and) trade & the CDM hardly function

(except for China, India, Brazil, Mexico …)

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E. Conclusions

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Dangerous climate change? The Gaia Hypothesis (James Lovelock, 1979):

the Earth is a super-organism, with the atmosphere, oceans, the biosphere, and soil all part of the complex system; disturbance can cause ‘sustained oscillation between two or more undesirable states’.

IPCC (2007): Lovelock was right, but so far we have made things only worse. Average warming of maximum 2 oC above pre-industrial levels gives a 50% chance to avoid it … and a 50% chance that we fail to avoid it. This ambitious target is not ambitious enough!

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Climate change and sustainable development

The causes of CC demonstrate a disregard for “future generations”

The causes of climate change are often also causes of other problems, especially air pollution and related health problems

Without addressing the causes of climate change no country or individual can claim to be on a path towards sustainable development.

Mind game1. Dangerous CC is real but we spend 1-2% global

GDP: we mitigate the causes and the effects, meaning generate new economic activity and save lives, today and for generations to come

2. Dangerous CC does not happen and we spend 1-2% global GDP: we generate new, clean technologies and reduce risks for climate disasters, today and …

3. Dangerous CC is real but we do nothing: bad things will happen, for many generations

4. Dangerous CC does not happen and we do nothing: our grandchildren are very very lucky but will be unimpressed with their ancestors for gambling with their lives27

Collapsed bridge in Thanh Hoa: cut off from school

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Mekong Delta

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Hanh (9) and friends identified this evacuation road as a priority for improvement (Tien Giang)

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Storm & Flood proofed school

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Climate change & future generations Enhanced disasters affect children

disproportionately (health, food security, child mortality, education)

“Hospitals safe from disasters”; and schools! Children as communicators and change

agents in Disaster Risk Reduction; creating livelihood opportunities; improving basic services

Children are the future: discuss CC scenarios in “Vulnerability and Adaptation” (V&A) assessments

GHG mitigation, awareness and (technological, economic) opportunities: nobody can argue with co-benefits (of trees, clean energy, etc) and picking low hanging fruits

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Thank you!!

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