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Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentThe Case of India
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Presentation for theInternational Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
November 19-20, 2002, Seoul, Korea
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Presentation Agenda
• Climate Change and India: Status
• Future Emissions Trends
• South Asia Regional CooperationEnergy and Electricity MarketsImpacts and Vulnerability
• Linking Climate Policies with Development Goals
• COP 8 - The Delhi Ministerial Declaration
• Kyoto and Beyond
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Climate Change and India:Emissions Status
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Index (1975=100)
E lectricity
E n ergy
C arb on
G D P
GDP, Energy, Electricity, Carbon
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GDP Intensity of Energy,Electricity and Carbon
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Intenstity Index (1975=1)
E lectricity
C arb on
E n ergy
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GHG Emissions
Emissions 1990 2000 CAGR
Carbon 162 (58%) 253 (65%) 4.56
Methane 17.1 (36%) 19.5 (29%) 1.32
N2O 0.21 (6%) 0.28 (6%) 2.92
CO2 equivalent 1017 1424 3.42
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Decoupling Carbon and Energy: Policy Measures
• Energy Efficiency and Conservation
• Renewable Energy
• Vehicle Efficiency and Transport Fuel Improvements
• Electricity Reforms
• Forestry and Land Restoration
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Carbon Mitigation(1900-200)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Car
bon
(MT
)
Energy Con (Supply)
Energy Con (Demand-side)
Gas Flaring
Biogas
Stove
Renewable Power
111 Million ton Carbon Mitigation from 1990 - 2000
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Carbon Saved in the Year 2000
Technology Initiative C arbon Sav ed(Million Ton)
Energy C onservation(Supply -side)
2.60
Steel 0.86
C ement 0.34
Other industry 0.78
Agriculture 0.15
Transport 0.10
Energy C onservation(Demand-side)
Residential + C ommercial 0.27
Wind 0.94
Sm all Hydro 0.15Renew able Pow er
Biomass 0.19Improved Stove 4.96Gas Flaring 4.16Biogas 2.30
Total 17.80
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Cooperative Climate Change Initiatives
• GEF Projects (2.6 Million ton/yearpotential)
• AIJ and Bilateral Projects
• National Communication
• Accession to Kyoto Protocol
• COP 8
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Climate - Development Linkage:Forestry Initiatives
1) Land Restoration
2) Afforestation• Joint Forestry Management• Social Forestry• Forest Conservation
3) Agro Forestry• Energy Plantation
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Future Emissions Trends
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Primary EnergyReference Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Exa
Joul
es
Coal Oil GasNuclear Biomass Hydro Other Renewable
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0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Elec. Agriculture Household & Commercial Industry Transport
Carbon EmissionsReference Scenario
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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP
(History and Projections for the Reference Scenario)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
E nergy C arbon E lectricity G D P
P ast Trends
Future P rojections
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity
CarbonEnergy
Past Trends Future Projections
GDP intensitiesEnergy, Electricity and Carbon
(History and Projections for the Reference Scenario)
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Carbon Intensity: 1995 = 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Carbon/ Person
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Carbon/GDP
Carbon/ TWh
Carbon/ Energy
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SO2 Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
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Carbon per Capita in India in the 21st Centuryunder Different Scenarios
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Car
bon
per c
apita
(met
ric to
n)
India Base Case
World (A1 Marker)
World (B2 Marker)
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Impact of Stabilization Constraints
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Carbon Emission Trajectories
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
550 ppmv
650 ppmv
Base
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0
700
1400
2100
2800
3500
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
TW
h
BASE
550 ppmv
650 ppmv
Coal Electricity
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
TW
h
550 ppmv
Base
650 ppmv
Gas Electricity
Stabilization: Impact on Electricity Sector
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Stabilization: Impact on Electricity Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
2070 2085 2100
TW
hBASE
550 ppmv
650 ppmv
Nuclear Fusion
0
150
300
450
600
750
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
TW
h
BASE
550 ppmv
650 ppmv
Renewable Technologies
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India: Filling the Stabilization Gap
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Carbon CaptureEnergy EfficiencyWindSolarBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilIndia 550 ppmv emission
550 550 PPMV PPMV
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
400
800
1200
2000
1600
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CDM Strategy:Roadmap to continued
meaningful participation
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Carbon Mitigation via CDM(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)
Scenarios
GlobalCarbon Price
CarbonMitigation
(Million Ton)
CumulativeMitigation
%
750 ppmv $5-8/ton 138 3%
650 ppmv $5-10/ton 301 7%
550 ppmv $5-14/ton 449 10%
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Climate Friendly Technology OptionsPotential and Costs for Kyoto Period
G r e e n h o u seG a s
M it ig a t io n O p tio n s M it ig a t io nP o te n tia l
2 0 0 2 -2 0 1 2(M ill io n
T o n )
L o n g -te r mM a r g in a l
C o s t($ / T o n o f
c a r b o ne q u iv a le n t)
D e m a n d -s id e E n e r g y E ff ic ie n c y 4 5 $ 0 -1 5
S u p p ly -s id e E n e r g y E ff ic ie n c y 3 2 $ 0 -1 2
E le c tr ic ity T & D 1 2 $ 5 -3 0
R e n e w a b le E le c tr ic ity T e c h n o lo g ie s 2 3 $ 3 -1 5
F u e l s w itc h in g - g a s fo r c o a l 8 $ 5 -2 0
C a r b o n
F o r e s tr y 1 8 $ 5 -1 0
E n h a n c e d C a tt le F e e d 0 .6 6 $ 5 -3 0
A n a e r o b ic M a n u r e D ig e s te r s 0 .3 8 $ 3 -1 0
L o w M e th a n e R ic e V a r ie t ie s M a r g in a l $ 5 -2 0
M e th a n e(C H 4)
C u lt iv a r p r a c tic e s M a r g in a l $ 0 -2 0
I m p r o v e d F e r ti liz e r A p p lic a tio n M a r g in a l $ 0 -2 0N itr o u s O x id e(N 2O )
N itr if ic a t io n I n h ib ito r s M a r g in a l $ 2 0 -4 0
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India's CDM Strategy:Roadmap to continued meaningful participation
Project/ ProgramStrategy
Retrofit Projects (e.g.)• Boiler retrofit• Process improvements
• Promote technology transition in small/medium industry
• Link with resource conservation programs
Green-field Projects (e.g.)• New Wind Farm• Gas Power Plant
• Positive list• Promote technical/ financial collaborations• Jump start technology transition/ hedging
Infrastructure Projects (e.g.)• Gas Pipeline• Electricity T&D• Road/Rail infrastructure
• Link with development• Regional energy cooperation• High mitigation potential but difficult to
operate under CDM regime
Mitigation Programs (e.g.)• Demand-side Efficiency• Electricity Distribution Reforms• Consumer Awareness
• Strong link with economic reforms andsustainable development
• High transaction costs but high co-benefits• No way to operate under Kyoto regime
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South Asia Regional CooperationEnergy, Electricity and Water Markets
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The South Asia Region
Consists of Seven CountriesIndia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, SriLanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives.
3% of the World Area
Quarter of World Population
Among the fastest growing developingcountry regions
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North-East Asia Gas Market Design
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Regional Energy Market Development
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Regional Energy Co-operation:A Key Link for Development and Climate
Emissions Reduction (2015)
CarbonSOX
0.0
1.53.04.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
Red
uct
ion
(%
)Year
Marginal Cost Reduction
Red
uct
ion
(%)
2005 2015
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
YearGrid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Energy Co-operation
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South Asia Regional CooperationImpacts and Vulnerability Issues
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Linked ClimateTropical MonsoonDistribution of Rainfall delineatesclimate across regions
Diverse Climatic RegionsLong Coast LineMountainsDeserts/ Arid areas
ResourcesDiverse Energy ResourcesShared Rivers
Common Regional Climate
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Soft Impacts
Long Coast-line and Islands
Enhanced Malaria and Dengue Fever-threat inTropical Regions of Sri Lanka and spread tomountain regions
Phytoplankton blooms -South AsianCoastlines
Melting of Glaciers
Floods and Droughts?
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Hard ImpactsInfrastructure Projects: Konkan Railway
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Linking Climate Policieswith Development Goals
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Development, Local Concerns and Climate:Policy Linkages and Disjoints
Clean Air Policies and Climate• Local Air Pollution control leads to Clean Coal (in power) and Ultra-
Refined oil products (in transport) and not low carbon technologies
Balanced Regional Development and Climate• Policies like locating projects in less developed regions lead to clean air,
but have little impact on carbon
Regional Energy Market Development• Strong link with for energy security, clean air and carbon emissions
Regional Water - Energy Linkage• Strong link with energy security (hydro power), food security (irrigation),
health and welfare (flood controls)
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Development, Local Concerns and Climate:Policy Linkages and Disjoints
Infrastructure and Climate• Coastal infrastructure (Roads, Ports),• Railway in western mountains (Konkan Railway)
Industry and Climate• Tourism (sea and Himalayan resorts)• Refineries on coasts
Implications of Climate Regime for Coal Regions• Stabilization regime shall affect coal demand and price
Impacts on Islands and their ecosystems• Lakshdweep, Andamans Islands• Biodiversity-Climate linkage(Mannar Island)
Impact on Monsoon
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Institutional and CapacityBuilding Measures
1) Public-Private Partnership
2) Stakeholder Consultations
3) Regional/ International Cooperation
4) National Communications
5) Technology Transfer Protocols
6) GEF/ AIJ Projects
7) Bilateral Mitigation Projects
8) Research Projects
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Institutional and CapacityBuilding Issues and Needs
1) Where should the Climate Change focal point be within theGovernment of India?
2) Capacity to meet Convention Obligations (e.g. NationalCommunicaitons)
3) Regional Integrated Assessment• Regional Climate Assessment• Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (Ecosystems/ Water/
Agriculture/ Coastal development)• Mitigation Assessment
3) Regional/ International Cooperation4) Public-Private Partnership5) Grassroots Action6) ……………...
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COP8 - Delhi Ministerial Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
• Parties to Promote Sustainable Development• Link Climate Change strategies with
Energy, Water, Health, Food security, Poverty alleviation
• Common but Differentiated Responsibilities• High Priority to Adaptation• Technology Transfer
Energy, Transport, Industry, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity,Forestry, Water Management
• Access to Clean Energy Services• Diversified Energy Supply (Clean/ Renewable)
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Kyoto and Beyond
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Kyoto and BeyondMitigation Regime
Policies and MeasuresCommitment (Targets, Time Tables, Timing, Allocation)Extended CDM regimeNon-Binding TargetsWhat is “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?Resource Sharing versus Burden Sharing
• Impacts and AdaptationPrevention / InsuranceFuture socioeconomic scenarios
• Technology and Financial Transfers
• Institutions
• Capacity building
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Conclusions• Despite no commitments, India mitigated 111 MT carbon in
last decade and shifted 2002 baseline by 7%
• Development of regional energy, electricity and water marketswould reduce electricity costs, lower emissions and promotesustainable development
• Early signal about post-Kyoto mitigation regime are critical forstrategic shift in future emissions baseline
• Concentrations stabilization regime shall significantly impactsub-continent’s energy system
• Beyond national sustainable development policies, theemissions mitigation and adaptation policies will have to becrafted for own sake
