1

Climate Change and the Evolution of Canada’s Wine Appellations

Anthony B. Shaw

Department of Geography &

Cool climate Enology and Viticulture Institute Brock University, Ontario

Canada

Lake Huron

Georgian Bay

Lake Ontario

Lake Erie North Shore

Grey

Huron

Norfolk

Durham

Niagara

P EC

3

Lake Erie

• Trends in Spring • Trends towards and early warm

up

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March

April

May

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Evolution of Nova Scotia's Wine Climate (Greenwood) )

REGION 1

De Chaunac L’Acadie, Lucie Kuhlmann Seyval Blanc Baco Noir, Marechal Foch Vidal, Riesling ,Chardonnay , Pinot Noir

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GDD

s Evolution of Winkler Index for Granby, Estrie Region Quebec

Region I

Lucy Kuhlman Ste. Croix, Chancellor, De Chaunac Vidal, Seyval, Marechal Foch

Trends in GGDs For Niagara Region 1970-2015

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Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Riesling Pinot Gris

Region II Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay

Region I

Chasselas Pinot Noir Riesling Chardonnay Gamay

Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay

Syrah Petit Verdot Grenache

Region II

Region I

Region III

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Prince Edward County 1970-2012 Mean=1258 GDDS

↑100 GDDs

Chasselas Pinot Noir Cabernet Franc Riesling Chardonnay Gamay Pinot Gris Sauvignon Blanc Gewürztraminer

Region 1

Region II

Chasselas Pinot Noir Cabernet Franc Riesling Chardonnay Gamay Pinot Gris Sauvignon Blanc Gewürztraminer

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Tony B. Shaw

Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Cabernet Franc Riesling Gewürztraminer

Region I

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Long-term trends in Growing Degree Days For Vines (1970- 2016, Norfolk County)

Region 1

Region 11

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Trends in GDDs Value For Huron County

Region I

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Evolution of South Okanagan's Wine Climate, British Columbia

Region 1

Region III

Region II

Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Sangiovese, Malbec, Chardonnay, Riesling

Evolution of the Winkler Index

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Mean Growing Season Temperature

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Observed and Projected Changes in GDDs to 2070s using the downscaled

HADCM3

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A2- Scenario- A heterogeneous world, increasing population, slower and fragmented technological change A1B- Rapid population that peaks in mid-century and declines followed by rapid introduction of energy-efficient technologies and a balance between fossil and non-fossil fuels B1- A convergent world, population peaks in mid-century, and declines, global solutions and emphasis on social and environmental sustainability

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GD

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asel

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10°C

Year

Past and Future Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada

Observed A2 A1B B1

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0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Observed1971-2000

Observed1981-2010

Observedand

Modelled1991-2020

Observedand

Modelled2001-2030

Modelled2011-2040

Modelled2021-2050

Modelled2031-2060

Modelled2041-2070

GD

D B

asel

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10°C

Pa st and Future Climate Normals Growing Degree Days

Niagara, Ontario, Canada

A2 A1B B1

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Observed and Projected Extreme Minimum Temperatures

What are Extreme Climate Events in Viticulture

• An extreme climate event is the exceedance of a threshold value by a climate variable on a particular occasion or one or more occasions within a time period for a particular crop

• Extreme events are relatively more sensitive to the variability

of climate than to its average and this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event

• Extreme events can also be defined by the impact an event has

on vineyard production that may involve excessive loss in yield and deterioration in quality or the destruction of the vines .

•

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•.

Trends in Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20o C

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Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20o C (Norfolk)

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Past and Future Extreme Cold Days Vineland, Ontario, Canada

Observed A2 A1B B1

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27 -26

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Trends in the Lowest Temperatures for January at Vineland

Occurrences of Extreme Maximum Temp>30o C

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• Definition: Volatility is the pace at which a climatic variable or index (temperature or precipitation) moves higher or lower over a time period, and how widely it varies or how extreme is the fluctuation

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Daily temperature Variations December 1/16 to March 3/ 2017

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Deviations from Mean (1490 GDD Value for Niagara

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Precipitation Variability during Growing Season for Niagara, 1970-2014 Mean=528mm

Ice Wine and Climate Change

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Vineyard Scale

Hand Picking icewine grapes

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, 1

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Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days For December

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30Trends in Picking Days For January

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Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days in Dec & Jan (1970-2016, Niagara Ontario)

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Great Lakes and Climate Change

Lake Huron

Georgian Bay

Lake Ontario

Lake Erie North Shore

Grey

Huron

Norfolk

Durham

Niagara

P EC

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March 2016 Ice Cover

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Trends in Maximum Ice Cover for Lake Ontario

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Lake Ontario’s Ice Cover vs GDDs Values For Niagara

GDDs

Ice Cover

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April –October Precipitation For Vineland

Trends in Growing April-October Rainfall Totals

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Observed 1971-2000

Modelled 2011-2040

Modelled 2021-2050

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Past and Projected Climate Normals

Growing Season (AMJJASO) Total Precipitation Vineland, Ontario, Canada

Observed A2 A1B B1

Extreme Precipitation Events

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y = 0.002x + 2.4567

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31-50mm yearly precipitation from 1930-2012

Temperature During the Ripening Period

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Trends in Diurnal Temperature Range During Ripening Period

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Niagara Max and Min T For September

Very Cool

Cool

Temperate DTR

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Vineland's Lowest Fall Minimum Temperatures

September

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Precipitation During Ripening to Harvest

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August Rainfall Totals for Vineland 1970-2013

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September Rainfall Totals for Vineland 1970-2013

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October Rainfall Totals for Vineland, 1970-2013

Precipitation Totals for September and October

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Impacts and Implications

• Winter Freeze Damage • Positive :Reduction in number of damaging winter extreme

minimum freeze events <-20 degrees • Negative • Prolonged temperatures above 0o C can reduce cold

hardiness • Winter damage could actually increase due to occurrences of

warm freeze-thaw events followed by cold snaps • Therefore, freeze damage could occur at a higher minimum

temperatures for varieties with low chilling requirements

Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term

• Impact on Vine Phenology

Spring • Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering • Negative: Potential damage from late spring • frosts for varieties with early bud • break

•

April to October Growing season • Positive • Warmer and longer growing seasons could enhance ripening

potentials for red and late season varieties • Negative • More volatility in growing season conditions leading to a

greater degree of variability in vintages • Positive • Potential for Full maturity of mid to late season

varieties (Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon) • Expansion into new areas around the Great Lakes currently

considered climatically marginal • Negative

• Accelerated ripening for early season varieties • Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due • higher daytime and night time temperatures

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies • . Most studies on adaptive strategies consider

implementation based on experiences with recurrent environmental and viticultural challenges

• Examples of adaptation based on long-term future projections of climate change are uncommon

• Anticipatory adaptive strategies present many challenges

due to uncertainties in future climate change projections • Combine reactive and anticipatory adaptive strategies

64

Farming systems respond not only to environmental conditions, but also to economic, technological, institutional, political and social conditions. Any changes in these areas can be disruptive and costly.

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Reactive Strategies

Diversify the Number of Cultivars and Growing Areas

• Expand the range of commercial varieties, but must consider consumers’ preferences

• Target new Areas with suitable soil types and climates (In progress in emerging areas)

Implement Active and Passive Freeze Protection Methods

Currently widely practised by growers

Hedging Winter Injury and Vintage Variations

• Consider Insurance Policies and Institutional Support to

hedge against losses from freeze injury and variations in vintage quality and yield

• Government support for technological innovations is a key driver in development of the adaptation and mitigation strategies related to climate change

Blending

• Blending the same varieties or different varieties from several areas or vineyards to reduce vintage variations and to create unique sensory attributes

Monitoring Systems

• Develop Micro-climate Monitoring Systems to assess evolution of established areas and to identify new areas

• Should include real time and archived data of key climatic parameters and indices for long-term analysis

• Monitoring various stages of plant phenology, fruit maturation and harvest

• (Vine Alert System and Vine and Fruit Tree Innovation Monitoring Systems)

Climate Change • Long-Term Adaptation Strategies

Through Institutional Support •

• Develop cold-resistant varieties to accommodate cycles of freeze and thaw and higher chilling requirements

• Develop disease-resistant varieties • Develop Climate Prediction Models for

analysis at smaller spatial scales

Climate Change

Conclusions • Potential impacts are mixed containing

challenges and opportunities • Adaptive strategies in response to recurrent

climatic events and economic factors are widely practiced

• What strategies we should implement in anticipation of future changes will depend on accuracy of our forecasts and support from various governmental and academic institutions

73

Thank You

Thank You

Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term

• Impact on Vine Phenology Spring • Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering

• Negative: Potential damage from late spring • frosts

• Earlier veráison and ripening • Impact on Quality • Accelerated ripening for early season