Impact of Climate Change

on Water Resources

Presenters

Muhammad Yasir Anwar

INTRODUUCTION

Ozone layer depletion due to emission of harmful gasses

World output grows but on the cost of polluted environment

Climate change decrease the availability of water resources

dependency on ground water is increasing

Cont…

Livestock, agriculture and industry are major sectors of water consumption

Climate change effect water reservoirs which cause human death and damages in infrastructure

melting glaciers

agro sector based on water Pak face setback

Cont…

long run growth will effect

need of regulatory authority to intervene

impact of climate change on water resources

in Asia

LITERATURE REVIEW

Positive relation between rainfall and ground source of

water(Justin Wright 2007)

Hot season requires more utilization of water resources

Temperature fluctuation increase or decrease the

demand of natural resources

Industrial growth contributively effect the environment

and in return climate effect the rainfall

Article by Kusangaya et al

Green house gases also contribute in changing the climate

conditions which in effect rise the sea level, temperature, intense

storm, Heavy rainfall

Many variable contribute in changing the climate but the intensity of

these variable is unpredictable

Impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of south Africa is

very harmful

Management should attentively take their part in order to regulate

the economy resources efficiently

Article by OJO et al.,

Downfall in the trend of rainfall in west Africa create water shortages

discussing some of the predictions in order to overcome the problem of

managing the system of supplying water and applying some of the

mechanism to control the management

Mismanagement is also creating an opportunity for the people to misuse

the resource of water and causing its scarcity in the region

Planning and managing is really considered as a tough job because in

future the intensity of climate change is more than some previous

situations and greenhouse gases are taking an extra part for this rapid

change

Theoretical Framework

We use two approaches to Analyze the impact of climatic change

in Long run

Dynamic Approach (Indirect Approach) which explains

Capture the Indirect effect on water demand.

Most commonly used growth model to analyze the impact of Ramsey, Solow

and Endogenous growth model.

Observing the climatic variable.

Enumerative Approaches (Direct Approach)

Direct effect on water demand.

Cont…

Affect the whole dynamics

E.g. Global warming affect ecosystem, Floods affect

agricultural output.

It covers effects of rising temperature on the water

reserves which is essential for the agriculture output,

livestock in long run.

Increased Drought

Water is the key element of human life

Climatic change affects the balance between water demand and

water availability beside this due to increase population,

urbanization and wealth water demand already has been increased.

Due to climate change, rise sea level and global warming

decrease in water supply causes in Africa and Pakistan.

Damages Occurred by Climate Change

Economic problems, Social distraction, life loss and diseases.

Effect of Climate on Glaciers

High temperature Causes melting glaciers at record

level

Once glaciers melted can not be restored

We have to find alternative water resources at higher socio-

economic cost

Bear additional cost of supplying safe water.

Econometric Technique

we use time series data from 1990 to 2010 of Pakistan, all

variables are stationary at level therefor we use OLS

technique to regress the model, variables are as fellows,

Water Resources : Term Improved water resources take

from the percentage of the population which are using

improved drinking water sources. This improvement in

water sources includes piped water on premises for water

connections inside the household’s dwelling, plot or yard.

It also includes public taps, tube wells, protected dug

wells, clean and safe rain water collection.

Cont.……

Climate Change : Carbon dioxide emit from the burning

of fossil fuels, consumption of solid, liquid, and

gaseous fuels and in the process of manufacturing of

cement, sugar and cloth etc.

Economic Growth .

Population Growth.

Estimation and Results

Dependent Variable: EXP_IMP_WATR_SOURCE

Method: Least Squares

Date: 12/15/14 Time: 12:11

Sample: 1991 2010

Included observations: 20

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 75.12143 4.227636 17.76914 0.0000

CO2_EMIT 7.112963 2.561670 2.776690 0.0135

GDP_PCAP_2005 0.012305 0.002194 5.609042 0.0000

POP_GROW 1.428595 0.482846 2.958699 0.0092

R-squared 0.957707 Mean dependent var 88.42000

Adjusted R-squared 0.949777 S.D. dependent var 1.737694

S.E. of regression 0.389426 Akaike info criterion 1.128572

Sum squared resid 2.426445 Schwarz criterion 1.327718

Log likelihood -7.285719 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.167447

F-statistic 120.7705 Durbin-Watson stat 1.745251

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Conclusion

Human activities like Co2 emission and fossil fuel consumption

resulted in an increase in greenhouse gases in atmosphere.

These increases in greenhouse gases change the earth’s

climate which leads to the change in global surface

temperature of the planet. As temperature rise steadily it will

change the climate, as climate changes it effect the water

resources on the earth.

A reduction in rainfall will lead to desertification in some areas.

In Pakistan, there are a lot of environmental changes occur

from last ten years. Reduction in stream flow and snowpack is

due to environmental changes in Pakistan.

Cont.….

These are the fresh water resources which can be used

in future but due to rise in temperature these resources

wastage in shape of flooding and Pakistan has no

storage capacity due to insufficient quantity of dams.

If stream flow continues in this way then some areas

could experience water shortage

Thanks For listening

We will appreciate your Questions, suggestion and Comments!