Climate Change and Weather
Extremes – Challenges for
Malaysia
Yap Kok Seng
4 May 2017
UNU Seminar on Climate Change and Health
• Observed Climate Change in Malaysia
• Projected Climate Change for Malaysia
•Weather Extremes
• Impacts and Adaptation
• Conclusion
0.17°C/10years 0.13°C/10years
0.23°C/10years
Mean Temperature Trend
Mean Temperature Trend
Maximum Temperature Trend
0.17°C/10years
0.15°C/10years 0.17°C/10years
Maximum Temperature Trend
0.32°C/10years
0.19°C/10years0.28°C/10years
Minimum Temperature Trend
Minimum Temperature Trend
y = 14.371x + 155.68
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
No. of Cases Tmax >35°C
No of case Linear (No of case)
y = 1.0655x + 3.0937
0
50
100
150
200
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
No. of Cases Tmax >37°C
No of case Linear (No of case)
More hot days
Change in Seasonal Temperature between the Periods
2000-2015 and 1970-1999 (baseline)
Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon
Inter-monsoon (April) Inter-monsoon (October)
°C
Extreme temperature in 1983, 1998 and 2016 was due to very strong
El Niño
Semenanjung Malaysia
Sabah Sarawak
Rainfall Trend
Rainfall Trend
y = x + 3.7143
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
3days
5days
No. of
occurences
Decade
No. of Wet Spells (Rainfall >100mm/day) for 3 and 5 Consecutive Days
Trend for Extreme Wet Spell
Percentage Change in Seasonal Rainfall between the
Periods 2000-2015 and 1970-1999 (baseline)
Inter-monsoon (April) Inter-monsoon (October)
%
Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon
Projected Climate Change for Malaysia
SUMMARY OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate ParameterPeninsular Malaysia
[RegHCM-PM]
Sabah
[RegHCM-SS]
Sarawak
[RegHCM-SS]
World
[IPCC AR5]
Annual mean
surface temp.
[2050]
1.0-1.5oC
[2100]
2.52-2.95oC
[2050]
1.3-1.7oC
[2100]
2.9–3.5oC
[2050]
1.0-1.5oC
[2100]
3.0-3.3oC
[2100]
1.4 - 3.1°C
Max. Monthly
Rainfall
[2050]
+113mm(12%)
[2050]
+59mm (5.1%)
[2100]
+111mm (9%)
[2050]
+150mm (8%)
[2100]
+282mm (32% )
-
Sea Level Rise 0.25-0.52m
[2100]
0.64-1.03m
[2100]
0.43-0.63m
[2100]
0.33-0.63m
[2100]
17
Annual mean temperature anomaly (oC) based on PRECIS RCM for the
decades 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999
1.3°C 1.9°C 3.1°C
1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C 1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C
1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C
1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C
1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C 1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C
2020-2029 2050-2059 2090-2099
-11.3 6.4 11.9
-9.1 -1.3 6.2-14.6 -0.2 15.2
-10.2 2.3 14.1
-8.9 -1.2 0.3
-17.5 -12.8 -3.6-18.7 -6.0 4.1
-8.8 3.8 14.6
2020-2029 2050-2059 2090-2099
Annual mean rainfall anomaly (%) based on PRECIS RCM for the
decades 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999
Weather Extremes
Comparison of up to100-year Return Period
of Daily Maximum Rainfall between 2000-2099 and 1951-2015
Sabah & Sarawak Stations showing an increase in return
periods
East coast of the Peninsular stations showing no apparent difference in
return period
Comparison of up to 100-year Return Period
of Daily Maximum Rainfall between 2000-2099 and 1951-2015
Impacts and Adaptation
Adaptation Challenges
• Water resources & security
Floods
Droughts
• Infrastructure
Floods
Flash floods in cities
Sea level rise
• Health
Floods on health infrastructure
Floods & Droughts on Water & Air -borne diseases
Temperature extremes & Heat stress
Adaptation Challenges• Food Security & Agriculture
Rainfall pattern changes
Floods
Droughts
• Biodiversity
Terrestrial eco-systems
• Rainfall pattern changes
• Temperature changes
Marine eco-systems
• Sea temperature changes
• Sea water acidity changes
• Forestry
Rainfall and temperature changes
Conclusion
• Climate Change already observed in
Malaysia
• Projected temperature changes ranged from
1-2 oC by 2050 and up to 3 oC by 2100
• Rainfall changes is around 5-10 % by 2050
• Sea level projected to increase by 0.6 – 1 m
by 2100
• Adaptation to climate changes need to be
mainstreamed into development