Climate changechallenges for the mining industry
Claude VilleneuveProfessor
Département des sciences fondamentalesUniversité du Québec à Chicoutimi
Iamgold workshop Chicoutimi Sept 17, 2012
Towards an uncertain future• In the last forty years, science made the general
deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence.
• It threatens mankind’s ability to keep developing on the same path– Biodiversity losses– Climate change– Ozone depletion– Ocean acidification– Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration– Freshwater availability and quality
World primary energy sources
Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources
Émissions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO2éq
Sources of anthropogenic GHG(Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007)
Source IPCC 2007
Source IPCC 2007
Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (février 2010)
Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study (20/10/11)
Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/[email protected]
Future climateMean temperature Canadian GCM [scénario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2065)] (Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada)
2010-2030 par rapport à 1975-1995
2040-2060 par rapport à 1975-19952080-2100 par rapport à 1975-19952020
2050
2090
1,5xCO22xCO2 3xCO2
Actually it is the most probable scenario given:• Fossil fuels availability• International trade trends and incapacity to obtain a climate agreement
- 20 0c 0 0 c + 30 0c
304 000 m348 000 m39 000 m3
Atmospheric water carrying capacity
Low energy atmosphere High energy atmosphere
New climate event occurrence
Source IPCC 2012
Dry future
Consecutuve dry days Soil dryness anomalies
Source IPCC 2012
Wet future?• The degree of confidence in predicting heavy rainfalls or
extreme climatic events is far less than prediction of dryness.• Although these events are local and statistically much harder
to predict on large scale (territory, timeframe), the climate science is now able to predict an increased occurrence for both types of extreme
• See: IPCC 2012, Managing the risks of estreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation
Climate change evidence
• Ice surface and volume• Permafrost surface• Ocean surface acidification• Sea level rise
Trends
August 2012 has been the smallest iArtic ice cover ever since satellital observations (NASA-GISS)
Upcoming global warming« We already have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. » . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250
« The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012
A closer look for 2030
Source: Lean, J. and Rind, D, 2009, How will surface tempretaure change in the future decades, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932,.
Outcomes?
• Higher variability and weather extremes («wild weather»)
• Higher temperature means • Accelerated ice and permafrost melting• Sea level rise• Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought)• Change in seasonal behavior and migration of
animals and plants
Growth?
• We are 7 billion people since October 2011• More than half are city dwellers since 2008 and
the proportion keeps growing• One more billion will add towards 2025 and
another before 2050• 20% of the poorest share 2% of the total wealth• To reach OECD level by 2050, the WDP should
increase 15 fold ans 40 fold for 2100 (Jackson 2009)
What’s up, Doc?
• Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes will impact world’s economy in an impredictable way.– Agriculture – Forests– Transportation– Real estate– Tourism– Energy– Trade– Investment
Key concepts
Source: IPCC, 2012
Mining • An energy intensive sector
– Lower mineral content of new mines– Remote locations– Global markets
• Mining occurs under most climate conditions all over the world and may have important environmental impacts depending on site sensitivity
• Life cycle of metals greatly varies in carbon intensity but generally, extraction is not the most important contributor
Gold?• In gold mining, emissions varies greatly depending
upon ore concentration, mine location and mining technologies
• Iamgold emissions raised from 170 kg/troy ounce in 2008 to 280 kg/troy ounce in 2010 and 316 kg/troy ounce in 2011
• Gold is 100% recyclable. Only about 15% of world gold consumption is recycled annually thus mining and processing are the main processes contributing to global warming in the industry
Breakdown of energy for a gold LCA
Source: Rio Tinto
These proportions varies from mine to mine and emissions will vary with carbon content of electricity grid
Areas of concern• Infrastructures
– Transportation • Roads• Marine• Freshwater
– Containment (tailings)– Buildings– Energy– Communication– Mine site drainage
• Operations • Environment
Transportation• Permafrost instability
– Roads– Airports– Railroads
• Sea ice cover– New opportunities for sea transportation in the Arctic
• Sea level rise– Seashore installations protection
• Glacier melt– Road security
• Inland waters– Lakes and rivers level influenced by drought
Containment facilities• Warmer average temperatures can accelerate
acid mine drainage• Altered freeze/thaw cycles can expose previously
frozen tailings• Possible overflow or ruptures of dikes following
flashfloods or high intensity precipitations• Wind and wave action of extreme weather
events can cause resuspension of tailings and formation of ice dams
Buildings and water supply
• Permafrost thaw can jeopardize building structures
• Higher average temperature can lead to water scarcity for ore processing or covering of tailings
Can mining industry adapt to climate change?
• Different strokes for different folks… each site has its own potential challenges
• Climate change concerns are relatively minor given the mining industry experience with natural conditions
• So why bother?
Good practices pay!
• Most measures to mitigate climate change are oriented on energy efficiency and better production
• Avoiding incidents due to unexpected weather events protects against lawsuits and fatalities
• RSI funds are growing in capital and they are concerned by the way mining sites perform (CDP, WDP, GRI etc.)
Tools?• LCA• Carbon footprint• Carbon offsets • R&D• Education and training• Renewable energy for electricity and fuels• Better building requirements • Flood management design• Increased surveillance
Conclusion• Climate change is real and it will increase in the 21st
century• Mankind action is the most important driver of climate
change• The mining industry is one of the important contributors
through GHG emissions• Changing weather and extremes may cause adaptation
challenges to the industry• There are tools to alleviate risks and improve performance
Timeframe
• 45 minutes for discussion (5 or 6)– Please mix provenances
• Coffee break (30 minutes) and discussion with UQAC research team
• 3 minutes per group for reporting• Synthesis and concluding remarks
