99 4 Climate Change: Cloudy With a Chance of Chaos “There is a kind of optimism built into our species that prefers to live in the comfortable present rather than confront the possibility of destruction. It may happen, but not now, and not to us.” —Richard Fortey, paleontologist and author Is climate change really a critical global issue? Absolutely! • Carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere are higher than at any time in the past 740,000 years. Short of nuclear war, climate change is likely to be the most critical challenge of the 21st century. It will cause trillions of dollars in damage and incalculable human suffering, expanding desertification, the spread of disease, famine, and more. • If we do nothing, the earth’s average temperature probably will rise by 2 to 4.5°C (3.6 to 8.1°F) by 2100. In a worst-case scenario—melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet or the Greenland Ice Sheet—sea levels could rise by as much as 65 meters (213 feet). • Other consequences of a “business-as-usual” scenario include increased storm devastation, droughts, intense heat waves,
Transcript
99
4Climate Change:
Cloudy With a Chance of Chaos
“There is a kind of optimism built into our species that prefers to live in the comfortable present rather than confront the possibility of destruction. It may happen, but not now, and not to us.”
—Richard Fortey, paleontologist and author
Is climate change really a critical global issue? Absolutely!
• Carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere are higher thanat any time in thepast740,000years.Shortofnuclearwar,climatechangeislikelytobethemostcriticalchallengeofthe21st century. Itwill cause trillionsofdollars indamageandincalculable human suffering, expanding desertification, thespreadofdisease,famine,andmore.
• If we do nothing, the earth’s average temperature probablywillriseby2to4.5°C(3.6to8.1°F)by2100.Inaworst-casescenario—melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet or theGreenlandIceSheet—sealevelscouldrisebyasmuchas65meters(213feet).
• the Prometheus Plan could significantly mitigate theconsequencesofclimatechangeifwebeginimmediatelywithdedicatedpoliticalwill.
What Will We Tell The Children?Whatwillwetellthechildrenwhentheyaskwhywedidn’tdo
something?Whydidn’twetakesomekindofaction?Willwecowerandresponddefensively,perhapsdefiantly?“Itwasjusttoocomplex.We didn’t understand it. there really wasn’t enough evidence tomakeagooddecision.”
It was those scientists! It was too complicated;they never made themselves clear. And besides, it wasreally a political thing. Why, even President GeorgeW. Bush firmly advised us, “No one can say with anycertaintywhatconstitutesadangerouslevelofwarmingandthereforewhatlevelsmustbeavoided.”1therewassimplynoleadership,noneatall.Howcouldwepossiblyhaveknownwhattodo?
But then everything changed; it seemed like ithappenedovernight.Itstartedbackin2005.mississippiandtexas were smashed and New Orleans inundatedbyHurricaneKatrina,andastheywerepickingupthepieces,theywereslappedagainwithareminderbyrita.Butthosehurricaneswereamidsummerbreezecomparedtowhathappenedintheyearsthatfollowed.
Beforeweknewit,ourglobalclimatehadchangeddramatically, and we were overtaken by the forces ofunimaginably unstable weather patterns from everydirection—cataclysmichurricanesandtyphoons,coastalstormsurges,desertificationwherethereoncehadbeen
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adequate precipitation, and rapidly melting glaciers inAlaska, Greenland, the Arctic, and the Antarctic.thecoastline of the U.S. was changed beyond recognition.miami,NewOrleans,Boston,NewYork,SanFrancisco,and los Angeles—well, you know, they’re just notthe same places anymore—not the way they used tobe. millions of people were displaced from cities nowpartiallyunderwater.Howcouldanyoneknowthatsealevelswouldrise soquickly?Wethoughteven if thosescientistswereright,itsurelywouldbehundredsofyearsinthefuture.Whyshouldwebeconcerned?
And those poor folks in Northern Europe: they’vehadto leavetheirhomesandmigratesouthtowarmerclimatestoescapeapermanentSiberiandeepfreeze.theGulfStream,partofourglobalheatconveyorsystem—itjustshutdown.Yes,IknowtherewasaPentagonstudybackin2005warningitcouldhappen.Well,whoknewitwouldbesosoon?london,Paris,Brussels,Berlin,andmore—allhavesufferedseverepopulationdecreases.AndIshuddertorecallwhathappenedinAsia.Bangladesh—almostthewholecountry—it’sgone,underthesea.
Ourfoodsupplywasalsohithard.Wheat,corn,andmanyothercropsweredevastatedonseveralcontinents.morepeoplearestarvingtodaythaneverinthehistoryof civilization. And we were supposed to be the mosttechnically advanced species since life began on thisdeeplytroubledplanet.Itellyou,kids,thereisabitofasilverlining.IhearthatfolksupintheCanadianFarNorthareexperiencingmuchwarmerweather.they’reactually beginning to have some success with a widevarietyofcropstheynevercouldgrowatthoselatitudes.
Herewearein2030,just25yearsafteritallseemedtostart,andsealevelsarestillrisingfast,astheglaciersatthepolescontinuetomeltmorerapidly.We’retryingto stop them, but now they tell us that we’ve passedsomethingcalleda“tippingpoint,”andit’sprobablytoolatetodomuchgood.
notmuchconsolation.Sinceallofthefinancialmarketscrashed in 2010, millions of people have been out ofworkaroundtheworld.WhatcanItellyou,kids?WhatcanItellyou?
Sound like fiction? We hope so. Could it happen in ourlifetime? Yes. Will it? It need not. Nonetheless, numerous well-informedscientistsareconvincedthatifwecontinuetodonothingaboutclimatechange,wesoonwillhavenochancetoreversewhatcould be the most devastating change in the earth’s environmentsincethegenesisofhomosapiens.
Anditwilltouchallofus.AstimFlanneryremindsusinThe Weather Makers,his tutorialonclimate change,70%of allpeoplealive today will still be alive in2050.2 What will you tell yourchildren?OrasNikitalopoukh-ine,formerdirectorgeneraloftheNationalParksinCanada,saidinarecenteditorial,“Haveahot,dry,stormylife,kids!”3
Our Brave New WorldAcriticalquestionallofusshouldponderiswhethersustain-
ablegrowthispossibleinthe21stcentury.Bysustainable growth,wemean meeting today’s global economic and environmental needs while preserving the ability of future generations to meet theirs.Ononehand,governments, industry, and large segments of society championcontinuousgrowthevenifthatgrowthisdestroyingtheplanet.Ontheotherhand,constituenciessuchasscientists,environmentalists,andgovernmentregulatorsarepushingbackwithequalpassionforcautionarycontrolsthatwouldmakethatgrowthsustainable.
tounderstandhowwegothere,itishelpfultolookbackattheinceptionofthis“bravenewworld”ofours.Itstartedandtookoff incredibly quickly in the early 19th century with the Indus-trialrevolution.Fedbyunquenchable technologicalcuriosityandcreativity,enabledbyacapitalistgrowth-orientedsociety,andfueled
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
thereis,however,averydifferentwaytoviewthisdevelop-ment.AuthorrobertNewmancautions,“It’s either capitalismorahabitableplanet—youcan’thaveboth.”Newmanandotherslikehim hold that our economic system is unsustainable by its verynature,andthattheonlymeaningfulresponsetoclimatechaosandpeak oil is major social change. Newman passionately proclaims,“Capitalism...ispredicatedoninfinitelyexpandingmarkets,fasterconsumption,andbiggerproductiononafiniteplanet.Andyetthisideological model remains the central organizing principle of ourlives,andaslongasitcontinuestobeso,itwillautomaticallyundo(withitsinvisiblehand)everysinglegreeninitiativeanybodycarestocomeupwith.”4
Wedisagree.Withoutquestion, the capitalistmodel and itsattendantGdPgrowthhaveproducednumerouspositiveoutcomesfor society. For example, during the 20th century, global popula-tionincreasedfourfold,from1.5to6.3billionpeople.Atthesametime, globalGdP,orproductionof goods and services, increasedbyafactorofalmost75,from$0.6trillionto$44trillion,bringingprosperityandwell-beingtoamultitudeofpeoplethroughoutthedevelopedworld.that’scapitalisminaction.However,weneedacapitalist free market system that is disciplined with the wisdomtoaddressfutureneedsaswellaspresentones.Wearecapableofsustained growth which reconstructs our planetary environmentalsystems.Infact,that’stheonlywaygrowthwillcontinuetooccur.
theenormousgrowthofthe20thcenturywasaccompaniedbyexplosivetechnologicalprogressintransportation,communication,education,andhealthcare.Forexample,ifyouwerebornin1900inthedevelopedworld,yourlifeexpectancywas40years.In2000,lifeexpectancyincreasedtoalmost80years.Someofthis longev-ity enhancement is due to the discovery of the power of simplesanitarymethods.Andmuchisbasedonsignificanttechnologicaladvances.thus,certaindiseasesareno longera threat topeople
AswesawinChapter2(seeFigures2and3),withtheadventoftheIndustrialrevolution,theburningoffossilfuelshasstuffedtheearth’satmospherewithlargevolumesoftoxicpollutants—par-ticulates,nitrogenoxidesandsulfuroxides,andahostofgreenhousegases,includingmethane,nitrousoxide,chlorofluorocarbons,andthemajorculprit,carbondioxide(CO2).thevolumesoftheseharmfulgasesarelargeandgrowingsorapidlythattoaddressthisproblemforthelongterm,wecannolongerdependonlyonenvironmen-tal service technologies suchasdisposal, recycling,and treatment.Pollution preventionmustbeakeystrategiccomponentofanyeffec-tivegrowthplanforallnations.Ironically,itisoftenalsothemosteconomicalsolution,becausepreventionalmostalwaysresultsinasignificantincreaseinenergyandproductionefficiencies.
themostchallengingofallpollutionpreventionproblemsinourcurrentgrowth-andconsumption-orientedsocietyisthedesignandimplementationofastrategytocontroland,itishoped,reverse,thenegativeimpactofclimatechangebyminimizingandeventuallyeliminatinggreenhousegasemissions.Climatechange iscomplexanddifficulttoevaluateobjectivelybecauseitisdeeplyentangledinpoliticalandeconomicissues.Ironically, it is intimatelyconnectedto,andisanunfortunateby-productof,theverysuccessandprogressofourcivilization.Wearenowwiserandcanunderstandthenatureandconsequencesofclimatechange.Fortunately,wenowhavethetechnological capabilities to meet our need for clean energy in amannerthatdoesnotnegativelyaffecttheenvironment.
WithouttheincredibletechnologiesbirthedduringtheIndus-trialrevolution,itwouldhavebeenimpossibletoachieveallthatsocietyhasachieved.mostofthetechnologicalenginesofgrowth,however, were fired by fossil fuels. Furthermore, although globalwarmingwaspredictedwithlimiteddatain1905bySwedishphysi-calchemistSvanteAugustArrhenius,5therewasreallynowaywecouldhaveknownofthedownsideoffossil-fuelconsumptionuntiltheearly1980s.EvenArrheniusthoughtthatouratmospherewasso
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largethattheeffectsofglobalwarmingwouldbeinconsequential.Because of this history and associated political-economic
ramifications,webelieveitwilltakeimmensecourage,politicalwill,andaboldlycreativeplan—thePrometheusPlan—toaddressthesechallenges.WemustmovetheU.S.andthroughitsleadership,therest of the world, away from fossil fuels and in a safer and moresustainabledirection.
Nature’s ChallengeOur challenge is enormous, and the time is short if we
are to make a difference. In brief, we now know that the CO2concentration inour atmospherewasnearly constant for10,000years.then,suddenly,indirectparalleltothebirthandgrowthofthe Industrialrevolution, theCO2 concentration increasedoverthepast150yearsby36%, from280partspermillion (ppm) to380ppm(seeFigure1).
From analyses of the gas composition in ancient ice coresdrilled inGreenland, theArctic,andtheAntarctic,weknowthattheCO2levelisthehighestithasbeeninmorethan740,000years.Since1970 theaverage temperatureof theearthhas increasedby0.8°C,orabout1.4°F(seeFigure2).
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Figure 1. Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide, 1000-2004
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Figure 2. Average Global Temperature, 1880-2005
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005
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InadditiontoCO2concentration,wenowcanalsomeasuretheaveragetemperatureoftheearthgoingbackhundredsofthousandsofyears.Scientistshaveaccomplishedthisbydeterminingtheratiooftwoisotopicformsofoxygen(oxygen-16andoxygen-18)foundinbubblestrappedwithinancienticecores.thisratioisrelatedtotheprecisetemperatureatthetimetheicewasformed.Evenoverthepast1,000years, the results areprovocative, as theyquantita-tivelydemonstratethattheearth’scurrenttemperatureisthehighestithasbeen—anditisrapidlyrising6(seeFigure3).
Figure 3. Average Global Temperature, Last 1,000 Years
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers, 2001
Furthermore,whenscientistsmeasuredboththeCO2concen-trationandtemperatureovera600,000-yearspanintheAntarcticice,theyfindthatat no point did the concentration of CO2 exceed 300 parts per million,ascomparedtotoday’slevelof380ppm,whichisrapidlyrising.Also,thereisnearlyadirectcorrelationbetweentemperatureandCO2concentration,evengoingbackhundredsofthousandsofyears(seeFigure4).thehighertheCO2concentration,thehigherthetemperature.Andatourcurrentrateofuseoffossilfuels,our
Figure 4. Comparison of CO2 Concentration with Global
Temperature
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Science Images
In1988,climatescientistsbecamesufficientlyalarmedthattheU.N.formedtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC,orClimateChangePanel),agroupcomprisingtheforemostleadingclimatologistsandscientistsaroundtheworld,whonowreporttwiceeachdecadeonclimatechange.theClimateChangePanel’sfourthreport,issuedinFebruary2007,wasclearandevenmoreunequivocalthan its third report issued in 2001—human beings are having animpactonclimatechange.Inrecentreports,ClimateChangePanelscientists have told us with ever-increasing confidence levels thatduringthiscentury,wecanexpecttheearth’ssurfacetemperaturetocontinuetorise.ItisclearfromtheFebruary2007reportthattheir
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earlierpredictionsofstartlingincreasesinglobaltemperaturesweretoo optimistic. By 2100, the earth’s surface temperature will haverisenbetween1.1°Cand6.4°C(2°Fand11.5°F)(seeFigure5).8the2007IPCCreportstatesthatthereisveryhighprobabilitythatthetemperatureincreaseby2100willbebetween2°C(3.6°F)and4.5°C(8.1°F).9this levelofwarmingwill likelydeliveran ice-freeArcticanda30%dropinrainfallinsubtropicalregions.
Figure 5. Average Global Temperature, 1880-2005 with Projection to 2100
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thisdoesnotseemlikemuchofanincrease,butweknowfromhistoricalrecordsthatitwillhaveaprofoundimpactonclimate.Forexample,the last ice age was triggered by a mere 1-1.7°C (2-3°F) decrease in temperature.Wealsoknowthatclimate change is now occurring at least 50% faster than we had thought.10Someoftheeffectswearecurrentlyobservingareasfollows:
• Increasing ocean temperatures are creating more frequentandmoreseverestormsthaninallofrecordedhistory.Untilrecently,meteorologytextbooksstatedthatitwasimpossiblefor a hurricane to appear in the South Atlantic. In 2004,however,Brazilendureditsfirsthurricane,ever.theyear2004alsosettheall-timerecordfortornadoesintheU.S.
• Since 1900, oceans have risen by 20 centimeters (8 inches)because of thermal expansion and glacier melting, and thatwillincreaseto43centimeters(17inches),eveniftheaverageglobaltemperaturewerenottochange.
theprojectedtemperaturechanges,whichnowhaveanevenhigherprobabilityofoccurringthanthatstatedinthepriorIPCCreport,areverydisconcerting.Anincreaseintemperatureof4-8°C(7.2-14.4°F)couldcollapsetheWestAntarcticIceSheetandraiseoursealevelsby5meters(16.4feet).thesedrasticchangeswouldleadtoinundatingfloodingofcoastalareas;severestorms;increasedoceanacidification;intenseheatwaves,droughts,andfamines;andglobaldisease.Asglobalpopulationssurgeacrosspoliticalbordersinsearchofdryland,food,andcleanwater,globalchaoswouldensue,and we would be faced with the most significant environmental,economic,andcivilsecuritychallengeinrecordedhistory.Itwouldbeanextremelyunpleasantworldinwhichtolive.
conditions,although“climatechangecrisis”isprobablyamoreaccu-rateterm.Infact,warmingisamajorpartofclimatechange,butthefinalglobalconditionscanbeamixofextremes—warmingincolderareas,coolinginwarmerareas,desertificationinwetareas,floodingindeserts,andsoforth.Inallcases,wildclimateswingswillcontinuetopuncturethemyththatwecanstillpredicttheweather.theendresult is a major negative impact on all living species, includinghumankind.Sowhatisthisthingcalled“globalwarming”?
likeawindowpane,ouratmosphere isessentially transpar-ent to solar radiation in the visible and ultraviolet regions of theelectromagneticspectrum,whichstretchesfromshortwavelengthsto long wavelengths, namely: cosmic raysàgamma raysàX-raysà ultravioletraysàvisibleraysàinfraredraysàmicrowaveraysàradiowaves.Solarradiationintheultravioletandinfraredregionsheatstheearth’ssurface,whichinturnreflectsinfraredradiationbackintotheatmosphere.Aportionoftheseinfraredraysisabsorbedintheatmospherebygreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxide,watervapor,andmethane, amongothers.Anotherportion is reflectedback toearthbytheatmosphere,heatingtheearth’ssurface.therestoftheinfraredradiationescapesintospace.
the earth needs a certain level of global warming, or therecouldbeno lifeon thisplanet.Forexample,marshasessentiallyno atmosphere, so a greenhouse effect is not possible.therefore,
theimportantgreenhousegasesintheearth’satmospherearewatervapor,carbondioxide,methane,freons(chlorofluorocarbons—CFCs), and nitrous oxide (the “laughing gas” used by dentists).Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas, and because it isresponsibleforintermittentformationofcloudsinouratmosphere,itmakesmodelingofglobalwarmingasignificantchallenge.thehotterplanetearthbecomes,thegreatertheamountofwatervaporinitsatmosphereandthegreatertheatmosphericwarmingeffect.Carbondioxideisnextinimportance.WedeterminethehistoricallevelsofCO2intheatmospherebydrillingandanalyzingicecoresinGreenland.Eachyear,thesnowfalliscompactedintoice,trappingair bubbles thatprovide ahistoricalfingerprint and recordof theconcentrationofvariousgasesintheatmospherethroughtheages.
“My colleagues and I now take the threat of global warming seriously. The time to consider the policy dimensions of climate change is not when the link between greenhouse gases and climate change is conclusively proven, but when the possibility cannot be discounted and [must be] taken seriously by the society of which we are a part. We in BP have reached that point.”
— Lord John Browne, forMer Ceo, BP STanford UniverSiTy, May 1997
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released by one medium-sized power plant burning fossil fuels.11Althoughhumanbeingsareresponsibleforamuchlower levelofCO2emissions,thatlevelissufficient,andincreasinglyso,topushtheatmosphericconditionsoutofbalanceandpastatippingpointthatcaninitiateacascadeofdevastatingeffectsfromclimatechange.leakingrussiannaturalgaspipelinesareresponsibleforabout59milliontonsofCO2-equivalentperyear.12theaveragehumanbeingontheplanetgeneratesaboutonemetrictonofCO2peryear,mostof it throughtheburningof fossil fuels suchascoal,oil,andgas.Indevelopednations,CO2emissionsaremuchhigher(e.g.,intheU.S.,theamountisfivemetrictonsperpersonperyear).Ascoun-triesbecomeincreasinglydeveloped,theyrequiretheinputofmuchlargerpercapitaamountsofenergy,mostofwhichhasbeengener-atedbyburningfossilfuels.
Political factors often play a key role in CO2emissions. Forexample, cement kilns produce about 7% of annual global CO2
WhereasCO2persistsinouratmosphereforaboutacenturybeforeitisfinallyre-absorbedbytheearth,methanelastsforonlyabout10yearsbeforeitisoxidizedtoCO2andwatervapor.Whenmethane’s lifetime in the atmosphere, its heat-trapping potential,andthefactthatitisultimatelyoxidizedtoCO2andwatervapor(bothstronggreenhousegases)aretakenintofullaccount,methaneisactually60timesmorepotentthanCO2asagreenhousegas.
thebiggeststoresofmethaneexistintwoplaces:permafrostregionsofourplanet,anddeepwithinouroceansasahigh-pressureform of a water-methane compound called methane hydrate ormethane clathrate. (the term “clathrate” comes from the Greek,meaning“claw,”asthemethaneisheldinplacebyasolidclaw-likestructureformedbywateratlowtemperaturesandhighpressures).thecarboncontentinmethaneclathrateburieddeepinouroceansisgreaterthanthatcontainedinallofthecoalintheworld.14
Iftheoceansorpermafrostregionsoftheearthweretowarmsufficiently,thisstoredmethanecouldbereleasedalmostinstantlyinahugeexplosiveevent.thiswouldcauserapidmajorglobalwarm-ing.Itisthoughtthatseveralofthepreviousspecies’massextinctionsonearthoccurredbecauseofthisprocess.15OnesuchexampleisthePermian extinction some 251 million years ago, when 95% of allmarinelifeand70%ofalllandanimalsperished.Andithappenedveryquickly.
As Nicholas d. Kristof recently observed, “the history of
InnorthernSiberia the groundhas beenpermanently frozenthousandsof feetdeep.thesurface layer,which isasmuchas260feetdeepandcontains50%ice,onceconsistedofgrasslandswherewooly mammoths roamed. Siberian permafrost has been meltingslowlysincetheendofthelasticeage,about10,000yearsago.recentwork,however,hasshownthattherateofmeltingisaccelerating.18Aspermafrostmeltsfurther,thereisconcernthatitcouldreleasegiga-tonsofadditionalmethane.thetop200to300feetofthepermafrostcontainsmore than500gigatonsof carbon (asmethane), two andhalftimesallofthecarbonthatiscontainedintheworld’stropicalforests.larrySmith,ahydrologistattheUClA,hasreportedthatthewestSiberianpeatbogcouldcontainone-quarteroftheworld’stotalbelow-groundmethanedeposits—70billiontonsofmethane.
Western Siberia is heating up faster than any other placeonearth,some3°Cinthepast40years.this isthehighest jumprecordedontheplanet.Already,onesquarekilometerofpermafrostinwesternSiberiahasmelted—something that hasn’t happened since the wooly mammoths roamed the earth. theslowthawofthistrappedmethaneisaterrifyingprospect.
We already have unnaturally high levels of methane. theClimateChangePanel’sFebruary2007reportstatesthattheconcen-trationofmethane intheglobalatmospherehas increasedfromapre-industriallevelofabout715partsperbillion(ppb)to1774ppbin2005.Italsostatesthat,asdeterminedfromicecores,the2005atmosphericconcentrationofmethanefarexceedsthenaturalrangeofthelast650,000years.
melting permafrost and warming oceans are not the onlysourcesofmethane.
Othersignificantsourcesincludemammaldigestion(primar-ily by cattle), leaking gas wells, and various insects. It has beenestimatedthattermites,whichemitlargevolumesofmethaneasa
the following brief history of climate change describes theroleofmethaneandCO2inthelastmajorclimatechangeabout55millionyearsago.AsthephilosopherGeorgeSantayanafamouslyremarked,“thosewhocannotrememberthepastarecondemnedtorepeatit.”
A Brief History of Climate ChangeClimatechangeisnotnew.Eversincetheearthformedsome
4.5 billion years ago, living organisms, ranging from bacteria tomammals,haveplayedaroleininitiatingandmoderatingclimatechangebycontrollingthelevelofheat-trappinggasesinouratmo-sphere—absorbingthemduringlifeandreleasingthemupondeath.Over numerous millennia, epochs, and eras, temperatures haveseveraltimesgonefromsimmeringtofreezing,dramaticallychang-ingthelandscapeandthenatureoflifeonearth.
Ever since we moved beyond our bacterial ancestors somehundredsofmillionsofyearsagoandcomplexlifeformsevolved,theCO2associatedwiththeirlifeanddeathhaskepttemperaturesabovefreezing.Infact,withoutCO2andothergreenhousegases,theearth’saveragesurfacetemperaturewouldbeadeathly-18°C(-0.4°F).Overthepast10,000years,ourglobalthermostathasbeensetatacomfort-able15°C(59°F).19
It hasn’t always been that comfortable. When CO2 signifi-cantlydecreasedintheatmosphereabout710millionyearsago(forreasonswedon’tyetunderstand)andthenagain600millionyearsago,theearthwentintoarapiddeepfreeze,withsolidmountainsoficeformingsmackuptotheequator.Asaconsequenceofthisfreeze,alargenumberofthespeciesontheplanetwereexterminated.20
then,some540millionyearsago,manylivingspecies,aspartof their natural evolutionary process, began to acquire skeletonswithalargecomponentofcarbonateintheirstructures.toformthecarbonatemolecularstructure,hugevolumesofCO2wereextractedfromtheearth’satmosphereandenvironment,andsincethenthere
thelastmajorclimatechangethatmaybeagoodmodelforwhatwecanexpect from the current changesonearthoccurredabout55millionyearsago.therewasasuddensurgeofCO2andmethanegasesfromthedepthsofouroceans,mostlikelyproducedbybacteria.thislargevolumeofCO2roseintotheearth’satmo-sphere, rapidly increasingtheaverageglobal surface temperatureby5°C(9°F)overaperiodofjustyearsordecades.Fromdeep-seacoredrillings,scientistshavedeterminedthattheoceansbelchedan enormous 1,650-3,300 gigatons of carbon-containing gasesinto the atmosphere, elevating the concentration of CO2 from500ppmto2,000ppm.Bycomparison,ourcurrentannualglobalemissionofCO2isabout26gigatons.thisseeminglymodestshiftintemperaturecausedmassiveextinctionofnumerousspeciesontheplanet.22
Piecing together all of the evidence, Norwegian scientistsnowbelievethatoneofthelargestdepositsoffossilfuels,probablymostlynaturalgas(methane),wasejectedwithmoltenmagmafromahugefissureintheoceandepths.Asthegasesandmoltenmagmamade their way to the surface, the hot methane combined withdissolvedoxygenintheseatoformCO2andthenexplodedthroughthesea’ssurfacewithnuclearforce,creatingahugeincreaseinCO2
intheatmosphere.23theocean,robbedoflife-supportingdissolvedoxygen, was subsequently not a very hospitable place for manyspecies.tomakemattersworse,someoftheCO2combinedwithseawater to formcarbonicacid, thereby lowering thepH(increasingacidity),andextinguishingmanyofthecreaturesinthedeepsea.Ittook20,000yearsfortheearthtore-absorbtheadditionalcarbon
Followingthiscataclysm,theearthoverthepast55millionyearshas slowly cooled, occasionallyexperiencingamodesticeagehereand there, triggeredbychanges ingreenhousegasesandshifts in theearth’s processional or wobblingorbit, the latter causing changes in the amount of solar energypenetratingthepoles.Indeed,wecantellfromanalysesofice-coreanddeep-seadrillingthattheconcentrationofgreenhousegaseswaslowatthebeginningofeachiceageandsurgedtohighlevelsattheend.
Ourlasticeageendedabout10,000yearsago.Andby8,000yearsago,theearth’sglobalclimatesettledintowhatpaleontologisttimFlannerycallsthe“longsummer.”Itishighlylikelythatthisconstancyinmoderateglobaltemperaturefacilitatedthegenesisofcivilizationasweknow it. Itwas then that agriculture andurbansettlementswere“invented,”flourished,andspreadthroughouttheworld.Itis ironicthatthosesame“inventors”arenowresponsibleforthenextsurgeingreenhousegasescalationandtheconsequentriseinglobaltemperatures.
The Keeling CurveIfthereisanydoubtthatCO2israpidlyrisingandaffectingthe
entiremetabolismofPlanetEarth,weneedlookonlyatwhathasbecomeknownastheKeelingCurve.duringthe1950s,climatolo-gistCharlesKeeling,underthedirectionofProfessorrogerrevelleofHarvardUniversity,beganrecordingtheCO2concentrationonthe summitofmt.maunaloa inHawaii. (results are shown inFigure6.)
“We don’t have a lot more time to deal with climate change.”
— henry M. PaULSon, Jr, SeCreTary of The U.S. TreaSUry and forMer
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Figure 6. The Keeling Curve
Source: C.D. Keeling, et al., Scripps Institution of Oceanography
therearetwopointstobemadeaboutthis landmarkstudy.First, the global concentration of CO2 is increasing significantlyeachyear.Second,andequallyprofound,onecanactually see therespirationofourbeautifulplanetinthefinestructureoscillationsofthisgraph.IntheNorthernHemisphere,whichcontainsmostoftheearth’svegetation,newgreeneryinhalesCO2fromouratmosphereeachspringtofacilitateitsgrowth.thisisshownasasmallannualdecreaseinCO2concentration.theninautumn,subsequenttothedeathanddecompositionofthisgreenery,CO2isreleasedbackintotheatmosphere,asindicatedbyanincreaseinCO2concentration.thisinhalation-exhalationrespiratoryprocessisresponsiblefortheoscillationsinthecurveinFigure6,anditendowsatruesenseoflifetotheearthandisinaccordwithJameslovelock’sGaiaconceptof the earth as a living organism.24the relevant and unfortunatefindingfromtheworkofKeelingandrevelle is thateachannualexhalationendswithanincreaseintheconcentrationofCO2thatremains in theatmosphere.Hence, thecurve’supward trendeachyear.
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So, climate change and global warming are not new, and acertain level of warming was absolutely critical for the genesis,evolution, and the well-being of all living species on the planet.What isnew,however,isitsrapidity.mostwarming-freezingcyclesoccurredovertensofthousandsofyears.Whatweareseeingtodayis transpiringmuch faster.thebestmodelwehave is thechangethathappenedsome55millionyearsago.timFlanneryprovidesanincisivesummaryofthechallengeweface:
Earthhasnowbeeninanicehousephaseformillionsofyears,whereas55millionyearsagoitwasalreadyverywarm,withCO2levels around twice the level they aretoday. there were no ice caps then, and presumablyfewer cold-adapted species—certainly nothing likenarwhals and polar bears. Nor was this warmer worldlikelytopossessthewondrous,stratifiedslicesoflifewefind todayonmountains and in thedepthsof the sea.thus, our modern earth stands to lose far more fromrapidwarmingthantheworldof55millionyearsago.Backthenthewarmingclosedageologicalperiod,whilewemightthroughouractivitiesbringanendtoanentireera.25
InhisbookCollapse,Jareddiamonddemonstrateshowgreatancientsocietiescollapsedinruinwhentheyignoredenvironmen-talsignalsandthecriticalroleoftheirresourcebase.Inaprescientcomment concerning thedestructionof these civilizations, paleo-climatologistPeterdemenocalofColumbiaUniversitynotes,“thething they couldn’tprepare forwas the same thing thatwewon’tprepare for, because in their case they didn’t know about it andbecauseinourcasethepoliticalsystemcan’tlistentoit.”26
The Culprits: Greenhouse Gasestheprimarygreenhousegasesheatingourplanetareshown
inFigure7.Ofallof thegasesbeyondwatervapor,CO2 ismostsignificant because it is present in the largest concentration andcontributesdirectlyorindirectlytoabout80%oftheearth’sglobalwarming.About56%ofalloftheCO2thathasbeenliberatedby
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humanbeingsburningfossilfuelsisstillpresentinouratmosphere.27Forthepastcoupleofdecades,humanityhasgeneratedabout14.6gigatonsofcarbondioxideannuallybyburningfossilfuels,afigurethathasnowsurpassed20gigatonsperyear.28Oceanshaveabsorbednearly50%ofallofthecarbonemittedbyhumanssince1800,whileduring that same period, life on land has contributed to the netcarbon inour atmosphere.Oceans are themajor carbon sinksonthisplanet.29
Figure 7. Greenhouse Gases in the Earth’s Atmosphere
As discussed above, at this moment in geological history,methaneisasecondarycontributortoclimatechangecomparedtoCO2.However,methanecausedsignificantclimatechangemillionsofyearsago,anditcoulddosoagain.
Nitrous oxide and dichlorotrifluoroethane are present in ouratmosphereatmuchlowerlevelsthanCO2buttheyareimportanttomonitorbecausetheyaresomuchmoreeffectivethanCO2inwarm-ingtheplanet.dichlorotrifluoroethaneisparticularlyanissuebecausedevelopingcountriessuchasChinacontinuetouseitinthemanu-factureofrefrigerationunits,andthegaswasoutlawedgloballybythemontrealProtocolasameans toavoidcontinueddiminishmentofourstratosphericozonelayer.
Ifwe study theoverallpictureofgreenhousegases, thebestdata climatologists have tell us that to avoid catastrophic climatechangewemustreduceourCO2emissions,oritsequivalentinothergreenhousegases, into theatmospherebyat least70%by2050.31this, of course, iswell beyond theKyotoProtocol,which at thispointisalmostsymbolicwithrespecttowhatreallymustbedoneto have a meaningful impact. Estimates indicate that even if theKyotoProtocolweresuccessfullyimplemented,anincreaseinglobaltemperatureof1.8to4°C(3.2to7.2°F)by2100wouldbereducedbyonly0.02-0.28°C(0.04-0.50°F)by2050.AnotherwaytolookatthechallengebeforeusisshowninFigure8.
“We’ve known for some time that we have to worry about the impact of climate change on our children’s generation. But now we have to worry about ourselves as well.”
— MarGareT BeCkeTT, BriTiSh foreiGn SeCreTary
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Figure 8. History and Projection for CO2 Concentration
Source: Tim Flannery, The Weather Makers, 2005
Suppose that by 2100 we wanted to limit the amount ofCO2inouratmospheretotwicethatpresentbeforetheIndustrialrevolution (i.e., twice280ppm,or560ppm).that is consideredbymostclimatologistsasthemaximumlevelofCO2concentrationpermissible to avoid catastrophic climate change.this concentra-tioncorrespondstolimitingallfuturehuman-generatedgreenhousegasesto1,290-875=415gigatonsofcarbon(seeFigure8).there-fore,fortherestofthecentury,ouremissionsofgreenhousegasesmustbelowenoughtolimittheannualatmosphericincreaseofthegasestonomorethan4.37gigatons(someofthegreenhousegasesalreadyintheatmospherewillbetransformedintosafegases).But,asnoted,wehavebeenproducingonaveragemorethan20gigatonsperyeargloballysincethe1990s.Consequently,thetargetwillbean extremely difficult one to meet without immediate, acceleratedreplacementoffossil-fuelenergy.tomotivateustodothis,let’slookatthespecificevidenceforclimatechange.
Rising Sea Levelsthe 2007 fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
theClimateChangePanel’sbestestimatesarethattheearth’saverageglobal temperaturecould risebetween2.0and4.5°C(3.6and8.1°F)duringthiscentury.moreandmoredatafromnorthernregionssuchasCanada,Alaska,Siberia,Greenland,theArctic,andAntarcticasuggestthattheearth’stemperaturewilllikelyapproachthehigher levelof this range, inpartbecausemassiveglaciersaremeltingmuchfasterthanexpected.
Forexample,astudybyscientistsattheUniversityofColo-radohasshownthatthemeltingoflargeglaciersonthewestcoastof Alaska and in northern Canada is accelerating.34 recent stud-iesshowthatglacialmeltingrateshavemorethandoubledandareclimbingrapidly.Inrelatedstudies,theU.S.GeologicalSurveyhasshownthatglaciersaremeltinginall11ofAlaska’sglaciatedmoun-tains(Figure9).
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Figure 9. Baked Alaska—Toboggan Glacier Prince William Sound
OneoftheauthorsofthisbookhasspenttimeonthesummitofAfrica’smagnificentmt.Kilimanjaro,ataheightof5,895meters(19,340 feet), exploring itsglaciersand its latentvolcanicactivity.Itismostdisconcertingthatbetween1989and2000,thisincred-ibleAfricanmonolithlost33%ofitsicefieldsandglaciers.37Newstudiesproject that the“snowsofKilimanjaro”willbecompletelygoneby2015.theconsequences for thepeople livingat thebaseofthismountainwillbedire,giventhatglacialmeltformsthebasisoftheiryear-roundfreshwater.Clearly,alocalcatastropheisinthemaking.
Ofmore seriousglobal concern iswhat ishappening in theArctic.recentresearchbytheArcticClimateImpactAssessment,
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an international team of 300 scientists, has demonstrated that inregions surrounding the Arctic, winter temperatures have alreadyclimbed by 3-4°C (5.4-7.2°F) over the past 50 years.38 the rateofdisappearanceoftheArcticIceSheetcanbeseeninFigure10,whichshowssatellitephotostakenbytheArcticClimateteamoverthepasttwoandahalfdecades.Justasicemeltsinacocktailanddoesnotraisetheliquidlevel,ifalloftheiceontheArcticcontinentmelts,itwillnotraisesealevels,becausemostofitisalreadyinthesea.
Figure 10. The Arctic Ice Sheet is Melting
Source: NASA, 2005
However, there are two serious concerns here. First, warmtemperaturesarelikelytothawthepermafrost.Asdiscussedabove,meltingpermafrostcouldreleasedisastrouslevelsofmethane.Borealandalpinepermafrostisestimatedtocontain350-450gigatonsoflocked-upcarbonasCO2andmethane.39
In fact, recent satellite data show that Greenland’s glaciersareslip-slidingaway.40InwesternGreenland,theheightsofsomeglaciersaredropping15meters(49feet)peryear.lossesareevengreateralongthesoutheasterncoast.thesurfaceofHelheimGlacierhasdecreasedby50meters(164feet)overthepasttwoyears,andduringthatsameperiod,KangerdlugssuaqGlacierfellby80meters(262feet).thelattertwoglaciersdrainalmost10%ofGreenland’sicesheet.Inadditiontomelting,theyareflowingincreasinglyfaster,threetimesfasterthanin2001,whentheyweremeasuredatflowratesthatwerethesameasin1996and1988.theglaciermeltingratehasbeguntoaccelerate.
Figure 11. Falling Ice Sheet
Source: AP photo/Natacha Pisarenko
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Similar challenges are apparent on the Antarctic continent,whichholdsmorethan90%ofalltheiceonPlanetEarth.41OntheWestAntarcticIceSheet, threeof thecontinent’sbiggestglaciers(aroundPineIslandandWestAntarctica)arerapidlydisappearing.theyarelosingabout54cubicmiles(250cubickilometers)oficeperyear—pictureacubeofice3.8miles(6.3kilometers)oneachofitssixedges.that’sapproximatelytheamountofwaterusedintheentireU.S.inafive-monthperiod.theseglaciersdrainmorethan30%of theWestAntarcticIceSheet.the last timethis icesheetmeltedwasabout100,000yearsago.Ifitweretomeltcompletely,itwouldraiseglobalsealevelsby8meters(26feet).Worseyet,iftheWestAntarcticIceSheetmelted,itwouldlikelydestabilizeandmelttheEastAntarcticIceSheet,whichcontainsenoughwatertoraiseoursealevelsby65meters(213feet).42
therearealsoindicationsthatpartsoftheAntarcticicepackareactuallyincreasingbecauseofincreasingsnowfall.thiseffectispredictedbytheclimatemodelsandsupportstheconclusionthatweareinthemodeofglobalclimatechange.Ina2.7-million-square-mileregionoftheicesheet,whichisthecoldestareaonearth,itisnormallytoocoldforsnowtoform.Additionalsnowfallconfirmswarmer temperatures.43 As the atmosphere warms, it holds moremoisture, leading to greater snowfall. Since this moisture mustultimatelycomefromoceans,thisincreasingicesheetinAntarcticawoulddiminishthetotalriseof65meters(213feet)insealevelsiftheentireiceweretomelt.However,thiseffectismodestandwouldreducetheriseinsealevelonlybyabout7%.44
the Himalayan glaciers that rest on thetibetan Plateau have beendangerouslyaffectedbyglobalwarming.thisareacontains100timesasmuchiceastheAlpsandprovidesmorethan50%ofthedrinkingwaterfor40%oftheworld’spopulation.46thiswaterrunsrapidlythroughsevenofthelargestAsianrivers,alloriginatingonthetibetanPlateau.themeltingoflargequantitiesofthisfreshwatersource,causingittogushaimlesslydowntotheseaatspeedstoorapidtoharness,wouldputmorethan2.5billionpeopleatsevererisk.
Europe in a Siberian FreezeApotential“by-product”ofglacialmeltingwouldbetoshut
For example, the Gulf Stream is actually a water current“conveyorbelt”thatmoveshugevolumesofwaterandheatgloballyfromthetropicstowardthepolesinadelicateequilibriumbetweenthe melting and freezing of water.this same Gulf Stream keepsWestern Europe from freezing over.the conveyor belt is drivenbytheformationoficeintheNorthAtlanticOcean,whichleavesbehinddenseseawaterthathasahigherthannormalsaltcontent.Itrapidlysinkstotheoceandepths.thecoldstreamrisesagainasit isheatedintheoceansofthetropics.thisconveyorcouldshutdowniftheoceanbecomestoowarmforicetoformorifthedensesaltywaterisdilutedbylargevolumesoffreshwaterfrommeltingglacierice.
theoceancirculatorappearstohaveonlytwomodesofoper-ation—onandoff.terryHughes,aglaciologist,hassaidthatundercertainconditionstheheatconveyorcouldshutdowninamatterof days.47this happened most recently 12,000 years ago. EuropewouldrapidlychilltoaSiberian-stylefreezethatwouldmorethanovercometheprojectedimpactofglobalwarmingtemperaturesinthat part of the globe. Alaska would warm faster, and it is likelythatwithouttheheatmovementofthisconveyor,themonsoonrainswould fail, adversely affecting agriculture throughout Asia.thereis a planetwide network of these ocean currents, or thermohalineconveyors,whichperformsimilarfunctionsthroughouttheoceans.
thepotentialimpactofafailingthermohalineconveyorwashighlighted by a recent Pentagon study that caused a significantinternationalstir.48AlsoquitedisconcertingaretheresultsofresearchintothethermohalineconveyorbyHarryBrydenoftheSouthamp-tonOceanographyCentreintheUK.49BrydenhasfoundthatoceancirculationintheNorthAtlanticis“stuttering,”andthereisa30%reductioninthewarmcurrentsthatcarrywaternorthfromtheGulfStreamandgiveWesternEurope its relativelybalmyclimate.HeandhisteamhavefoundthatwhileoneareaofsinkingwaterontheCanadiansideofGreenlandstillseemstobefunctioningasnormal,asecondstreamontheEuropeansidehaspartiallyshutdownandissendingonly50%asmuchdeepwatertothesouth.Atthistime,it
U.S. Coastline SubmergedWithmoderntechnologywecan“look”backover55million
years,andthepicturewesee isnotreassuring.Atthat time,CO2levelsappeartohavebeenabove1,000ppmandsealevelsmorethan50meters(164feet)higherthantoday.Asnotedearlier,CO2levelsdecreasedovertimeasmarinelifeabsorbedcarbonthroughphoto-synthesisandcarbonate-basedskeletonformation.thecarbonwasultimatelyburiedastheorganismsdiedandsanktotheoceanfloor.thisreductioninCO2levelsloweredthetemperatureoftheearth’satmosphereandallowedicesheetstoforminAntarcticaabout40millionyearsago.Byfourmillionyearsago,CO2levelshaddroppedtolessthanourpre-industriallevelof280ppm,andpermanenticesheets covered the Northern Hemisphere. As subsequent glacialperiodswaxedandwaned,CO2 levelsandtheearth’s temperatureweretightlyanddirectly linked.Whenbothincreased,therewerestablewarmperiodswithhighsealevels,andconversely,whenbothdecreased,therewereglacialiceagesandlowsealevels.
At no time in the past 10 million years did our CO2 levels exceed the current value of 380 ppm.Infact,10millionyearsago,theearth’saveragetemperaturewasseveraldegreeshigherthantoday—therewerenoicesheetsinGreenland—andsealevelswereseveralmetershigher.Floridawasnearlynon-existent.
As we move closer to the present, the geological records ofsome 120,000 years ago provide a telling story.the climate waswarm, similar to today, and sea levels were several meters higherthan they are now, even though CO2 levels remained lower thantoday’spost-industriallevelof380ppm.Closeryettothepresent,thepast10,000yearshaveprovidedarelativelystableclimatethathasfosteredthebirthofhumancivilization.
havesometimesoccurredwithinjustafewdecades.WiththeonsetoftheIndustrialrevolutionwehavebecomepreoccupiedwithanddrivenbytheallureofgrowth.Andasacivilization,wehavebecomecomfortableandsecurewithastableclimateoverthepast10millen-niathat we have come to take for granted. GiventhelargeincreasesintheCO2levelswecurrentlyobserve, thislongstableperiodappearstobecomingtoanend.theexpectationofnochangeinclimateisanunreasonableanddangerousconclusion.
Severe StormsHernamewasKatrina.Shestartedasasimplestorm,justa
Category1onascaleof1to5.OnAugust25,2005,residentsofmiami breathed a sigh of relief as Katrina blew by, but that wasshort-livedas she suckedupenergy fromthewarmwatersof theGulfofmexicoandgrew rapidlyover a coupleofdays to a full-fledged,devastatingCategory5hurricane.Katrinaweakenedonlyabitto4assheslammedintothemississippiandlouisianacoastline.She destroyed the levees at lake Pontchartrain, inundating NewOrleanswithupto20feetoffloodwatersandplungingthecityintomayhem.Bydecember31,theNationalClimaticdataCenteresti-matedhurricanedamageintheU.S.fortheyearwasmorethan$100billion.SwissreinsuranceCo.saiditsnetprofitfor2005fell41%,asclaimshit$760million.52Katrinadamagedoilrigsandrefineries
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responsibleforsupplying25%ofU.S.oilproduction.Whenitwasover,nearly2mBdofoiland5.2billioncubicfeetofgasperdaywentoffline.Wasthisjustafreakoccurrenceoraharbingerofthingsto come—increasingly ferocious storms, a consequence of global-warming-inducedclimatechange?
Until 1996, there seemed to be a consensus that increasedCO2 levels and global warming would have only minimal effectsonhurricaneintensity.Butthatisnolongerthecase,andnumerousscientists,afterdetailedstudies,havebrokenrankswiththisview.theprevailingviewnowisthatthesurgeinglobaltemperatureoverthepast threedecadeshasmadehurricanesmoresevere.damagefrom climate-change-induced weather catastrophes has increasedgeometrically—$75billionduringtheperiod1980-89;$290billionduring1988-97;andnearly$750billionduring1998-2005.53
Hurricanes contain “nuclear” amounts of energy. typically,theyreleasemorethan10milliontrillion joulesperday.55that isequivalent to approximately a million Hiroshima atomic bombs.Fortunately,mostof thisenergy is released indrivingairupward,rather than sideways, or we would really be in trouble. Climatetheoryandcomputermodelstellusthatastheworldgetswarmer,higher-temperature surface waters will fuel hurricanes, increasingtheirwindspeedandwaterfall.theinitialmini-cycloneofwarmairformswhenthesurfaceseatemperatureexceeds26°C(79°F).Everyfractionofadegreeabovethisthresholdenergizeshurricaneforma-tionexponentially.WhenKatrinareachedCategory5,thesurfacetemperatureoftheGulfofmexicowas30°C(86°F),only4°C(7°F)
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abovethetemperaturenecessaryforhurricaneformation.Using the maximum wind speed and lifespan of a storm,
Kerry Emanuel, a tropical meteorologist at massachusetts Insti-tuteoftechnology,developedaformulaforwhatisnowcalledthepower-dissipationindex(PdI).56thePdIisdirectlyrelatedtothetotal devastation a hurricane can wreak on buildings and generalconstruction.theresultsofhis studyshowthatdamage increasesexponentially with wind speed. thus, a hurricane with winds of148milesperhour (247kilometers/hour) canproduceup to250timesmoredamagethanonewithwindspeedsof74milesperhour(123kilometers/hour).Inastudyofstormsoverthepast30years,EmanuelfoundthatthePdIhasdoubled.thisincreaseisdirectlyrelatedtoincreasesinseatemperaturesandlikelyreflectstheeffectofglobalwarming(Figure13).
Figure 13. Hurricane Intensity vs. Sea Temperature
Source: Kerry Emanuel, Nature 436, August 4, 2005
Emanuel also concluded from his studies that, on average,storms are lasting 60% longer, with wind speeds increasing by as
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much as 15%. these studies show that the destructive power ofhurricanes has increased by more than 70% over the past threedecades.57Emanuelreluctantlysumsuphisdisturbingfindings:“Wewillhavesomequietyears,butunlesswehaveareallybigvolcaniceruption[totemporarilycooltheearth’satmosphere],we’llneverseeanotherquietdecadeintheAtlanticinourlifetimeorthatofourchildren.”58
Althoughthehurricanepictureiscomplicatedanddifficulttomodel, the data over the past few decades appear to confirm therealityofincreasinghurricaneintensitiesandthedirectconnectionoftheseintensitiestoglobalwarming.
Ocean AcidificationOf the CO2 formed by burning fossil fuels, 40% stays in
theatmosphere,30% is absorbedbyvegetationon land,and30%dissolvesinouroceans,whichisnotgoodformarinelifeand,there-fore,notgoodforus,aswell.
When CO2 dissolves in sea water, it forms carbonic acid,H2CO3,thesameweakacidfoundincarbonatedbeverages.Justasallacidsdo,carbonicaciddissociatesinwatertohydrogenionsH+,whichareresponsibleforacidity.thepHscaleisactuallyameasureof hydrogen ion concentration or acidity. A value of 7 is neutral,
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where theconcentrationofhydrogen ions (causingacidity) is justequal to the concentration of hydroxyl ions, OH— (causing alka-linity).thepHscaleisinverselyandexponentiallyproportionaltoacidity.thus,adropofonepHunit,sayfrom6to5,correspondstoatenfoldincreaseintheconcentrationofhydrogenions,i.e.,inacidity.
thepHofpristineseawaterisbetween8.0and8.3.Itisslightlyalkaline.60AbsorptionofCO2inouroceanshasalreadydroppedthepHby0.1unitssincethebeginningoftheIndustrialrevolution.Atthecurrentrateofchange,itwillfallanadditional0.3pHunitsby2100.Severalcenturiesfromnow,thepHwilleasilybelowerthanatanytimeinthepast300millionyears.61theseshiftsseemsmall,butthereisamplecauseforconcern.recentexperimentsdemonstratethatwearealreadybeginningtointerferewithskeletonformationincriticalspeciessuchasphytoplankton,commonlyfoundfloatingnearthesurfaceofoceans.thesetinyspeciesareamajorfoodsourcefor fish and marine mammals, including whales. Similar negativeimpacthasbeenfoundforoceancoralreefs,alargefractionofwhichhave been acid-bleached and are in ultimate danger of completedestruction.
Coralreefsarethenurseriesforallmarinelifeandforoceanhealth.Shouldcoralreefscontinuetosuffermoredamage(astheyare now), we could lose the entire aquatic system of planet earthwhichactsastheultimateincubatorofcellularlifeasweknowit.Humans and all other life forms on earth were incubated in thisnurserywe call theoceans.Without coral reefs,ouroceans could“die” andwith them, every formof lifeon theplanet.more vitalthanrainforestsforthesurvivalofourplanetaryecology,oceancoralreefsarenowmovingtowardextinction,withallthatthatimplies.
As noted earlier, low pH (acidic) conditions prevailed some55millionyearsagowhentheearthwasmuchwarmerthantoday.theconsequenceofthisincreasedaciditywasmassiveextinctionofmostmarinespecies.Ittookseveralhundredthousandyearsfortheoceanstorecover.
“Cleancoal,”whichsomemightsayisanoxymoron,isatermused frequentlyby the current administration inWashingtonandthecoalindustry.Itisatechnologythathasyettobecommerciallydeveloped,andisheavilysupportedfinanciallybytheU.S.govern-ment. In this technology, coal is gasified by pulverizing it andheatingtheresultantpowdertoveryhightemperatureswithoxygenand steam.the particulate matter, or ash, is then removed fromthegases,asistheresultantCO2.theothergasesformed,carbonmonoxide andhydrogen,62 can eitherbeburned in apowerplantdirectlyorconvertedfurtherwithacatalysttonearlypurehydrogen,whichcanthenbeburnedorusedinafuelcellforpowergeneration.By-productCO2isburied(“sequestered”)deepinthegroundortheocean.
twomajorissuesareassociatedwiththistechnology.First,theprocessisveryexpensive.Atypicalcoalplantcosts$780milliontobuild,whereasa“cleancoal”plantwillcostatleast$1billion,andmostprobably,significantlymore.63Furthermore,onemustfactorinthecosttosequesterhugevolumesofCO2.Andfinally,thereisnoguaranteethatthisCO2willnot“burp”tothesurfaceoftheearthsomeday, causing catastrophic effects, let alone increased globalwarming.Earlytestsshowthattheshalerockusedto“hold”theCO2actuallychangescompositionovertime,leadingtogreaterporosityoftherockandanincreasedlikelihoodofits“burping”CO2backtothesurface.Iftheadministration’sbillionsofdollarsforsupportof“cleancoal”technologyweretobedirectedtocommercializationofalternatenon-fossil-fuel technologies, therewouldamuchgreaterbenefittoallconstituencies.Simplystated,“cleancoal”doesn’texistinanyformandwon’tformanydecadesintothefuture,ifever.Itis a marketing slogan for very narrow special interests willing torisk irreparable damage to the biosphere inpursuit of short-termfinancialgain.
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Heat Waves, Droughts, and FaminesBetween35,000and50,000peoplediedintheAugust2003
European heat wave, which hit Paris particularly hard. In thesummerof1995,nearly800Chicagoansdiedfromanintenseheatwaveinthatcity.Inadditiontotheunfortunatelossofhumanlife,bothoftheseheatwavescosttheirrespectivegovernmentsbillionsofdollars.
Aretheseheatwavesharbingersofglobalclimatechange?Arecentstudyassertsthatthisisthecase.64Itpredictsthatfutureheatwaveswillbemore intense,more frequent,andwill last longeraswe progress into the 21st century. Furthermore, researchers showthattheheatwavescoincidedwithaspecificatmosphericcircula-tionpatternthatwasintensifiedbyongoingincreasesingreenhousegases, indicating that future heat waves over Europe and NorthAmericawillbemoresevere.
Billionsofpeoplewillalsobeatgreaterriskbecauseofdroughtsandfaminesasaconsequenceofclimatechange.“By2025,halftheworld’spopulationwillbelivinginareasthatareatriskfromstormsand other weather extremes,” the World Water Council predicts,citingevidencegatheredbyU.N.expertsandothers.theeconomiccost will be huge, especially for developing nations.the Councilpredicts:
theexpectedclimaticchangeduringthetwenty-firstcenturywillfurtherintensifythehydrologicalcycle,withrainyseasonsbecomingshorterandmoreintenseinsomeregions,whiledroughtsinotherareaswillgrowlongerinduration, which could endanger species and crops andleadtoadropinfoodproductionglobally....droughtsare becoming more severe and widespread. . . . Up to45%of reporteddeaths fromnaturaldisastersbetween1992and2001resultedfromdroughtsandfamines.themostvulnerablecommunitiesareimpoverishedpeoplesoccupyingmarginalruralandurbanenvironments.65
Africa’smostpreciouscrop,maize, is currently struggling inthefaceofclimatechange.Inrecentyears,climatechangehascut
Global DiseaseClimate change is also responsible for increases in the
frequencyandvirulenceof infectiousdisease.67Ourearth’swarm-ingclimateoverthepast30yearsisestimatedtohavecontributedto150,000deathsandfivemillionillnesseseachyear,accordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization.68manyhumandiseasesaredirectlylinkedtoclimatechange,fromcardiovascularmortalityandrespi-ratory illnessescausedbyheatwaves, to increasedtransmissionofinfectious diseases and malnutrition because of crop failures andexpanded habitats for pathogen-carrying insects, such as malarialmosquitoes. Ironically, the people of underdeveloped nations arethosemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,andyethavehadtheleasttodowithcausingit.thefollowingisbutasmallsamplingofglobaldiseaseincidencesattributableinlargeparttoclimatechange:
• In the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan, a regionalincrease inannualmeantemperatureof0.5°Csince1978hascontributedtotheincreaseinmalariacasesfromafewhundredintheearly1980sto25,000in1990.
• Epidemic malaria has occurred at high altitudes over thepast decade in rwanda, Zambia, Swaziland, Ethiopia, andmadagascar. Increased temperaturesor rainfallorbothhavesignificantly contributed to these epidemics. One epidemicin highland madagascar in 1988 killed more than 100,000people.
• dengue has appeared at higher altitudes than previouslyreported inCostarica (at1,250meters,or4,100 feet),andinColombiaandIndia(at2,200meters,or7,216feet).the
• Otherexamplesofclimate-relatedchangesintheprevalenceor distribution of pathogens and their vectors include theresurgenceofmediterraneanspottedfeverinSpainandItaly,the recent episode of African horse sickness in Iberia, theresurgence of plague in parts of southern Africa, increasedincidence and geographic spread of algal blooms, outbreaksof opportunistic infections among seals, and the spread andestablishmentofpathogensandvectorsinSwitzerland.
As indicated, malaria is a particularly frightening prospect.today,morethan4.4billionpeopleareatriskfrommalariainfec-tion.thisisprojectedtoincreaseto8.8billionpeopleby2085inthe absenceof globalwarming.69Withglobalwarming, this levelwill conservatively increaseby at least3%, i.e., bymore than260millionadditionalpeoplein2085.thisisduetotheincreasedrangeofmosquitoes,ashigheraltitudesbecomewarmerandmorehospi-tabletothem.thecountriesmostatriskarethosewheremalariaiscurrentlynotamajorfactor,becauseimmunityinhumanbeingsandanimalsinthesecountriesisquitelow.
Where Are We As A Nation—Really?We are arguably at the most significant crossroads in the
history of our civilization. the current U.S. administration andCongress finally recognize that a transition from our dependenceonoil is important, althoughmanyof theirmembershave yet to
IndustryleaderssuchasShell,BP,GE,andduPonthavemadecommitmentstocleanalternativesourcesofenergy.theyrecognizethat itcanmeangreaterprofitability,generallyenhancedfinancialresults,andpreferablesocialbenefits.AsJeffreyr.Immelt,chairmanandCEOofGE,recentlystated,“WethinkGreenmeansGreen.thisisatimeperiodwhereenvironmentalimprovementisgoingtoleadtowardprofitability.”Buttoomanyindustryleadersstillbelievethat there isplentyofoil in theground,andthat technologywillsavetheday.So,theirattitudeis,“let’scontinuetoplanonburningmoreandmorefossilfuels.”
Asforclimatechange,thecurrentadministrationandanumberof largecorporations claim theneed formuchmore researchanddatabeforetheyacceptitisanissuethatrequiresaction.theyargue,asPresidentBushhasoftendone in thepast, thatanyreasonableactionwouldstraintheAmericaneconomyand,therefore,isunjus-tifiedatthistime.theyfailtorecognizethatthefinancialimpactwillbemuchmoredevastatingifwecontinuetodonothing.Asforclimate-changeskeptics,donaldKennedy,internationallyrespectedscientistandeditor-in-chiefofSciencemagazine,summeditupwell:“Consensusasstrongastheonethathasdevelopedaroundthistopicis rare inscience.”OnJune21,2004,48Nobel laureatescientistswentastepfurtherbystating,“Byignoringscientificconsensusoncritical issues such asglobal climate change, [PresidentBush andhisadministration]arethreateningtheearth’sfuture.”InFebruary2007, theAmericanAssociationfor theAdvancementofScience,the world’s largest scientific association, stated, ““the evidenceis clear: Global climate change caused by human activities is
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occurring now and is a growingthreattosociety.”70
Where are we really? In ourview, climate change is real andhumanity is a big factor in itsformation. It is takingplace at anever-increasing and more danger-ouspace,notjustfortheU.S.,butforallofhumanity.WeAmericansaremajorcontributorstothisproblem,andit iswewhoholdthesolution.Initsmostfundamentalessence,climatechangeisnotapollutionproblem,itisanenergyproblem.
theworldmustgetoffoil,coal,and,eventually,naturalgas,andmove tonon-fossil fuels, if it is tosurvive insomeformthatapproximatesmoderncivilization.Inmanyrespects,weshouldbegrateful that oil is rapidly approaching its peak and consequentlyincreasinginprice.Itseemsthathistoricallyonlyeconomicfactorsgrabourattentionandtheattentionofourpoliticalrepresentatives.Climatechange iscomplexandnotyetappreciatedby thosewhocanandshouldprovideleadershipandthepoliticalwill.Ourlead-ersshoulddosomethingconstructivetoimmediatelybeginpullingusbackfromthebrinkofdisaster.Climatechange,arguably,isthemost critical issue we will face in the 21st century. Nonetheless,it istheeconomiccostofourcurrentfoolishenergyconsumptionpatternsthatwillultimatelydriveustoact.that’sfine,aswehavetheopportunitytosolvebothproblemswithonestroke.
Ifoilproductionrateshavenotpeaked,theysurelywillveryshortly,andtheglobaleconomicimpactwillbecatastrophictoallnations,ultimatelyeventooil-producingcountries.Over thepastdecade, globalization has tightly coupled international economic,energy, andenvironmental systems.these systemsare stressed.Atippingpointiscloseathand,anditwillnottakemuchduressorchaoticbehaviorinanyofthesethreesystemstosendtheworldintoaneconomicandsecuritytailspin.Itmaywellbethatageopoliticaleventwillforceustoactbeforewefeeltheeconomicimpactofpeak
“Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism.”
siononEnergyPolicyhasproposedaflexible,market-basedstrategyof tradable emissions permits. the Commission recommendedthat“theU.S.governmentin2010wouldbeginissuingpermitsforgreenhousegasemissionsbasedonanannualemissionstargetthatreflectsa2.4%peryearreductionin[the]averagegreenhousegasemissionsintensityoftheeconomy(where“intensity”ismeasuredintonsofemissionsperdollarofGdP).”71
Underthisproposal,mostpermitswouldbeissuedatnocosttoexistingemitters,butatthebeginningasmallpoolequalto5%ofallemissionswouldbeauctionedtoaccommodatenewemitters,stimulate themarket inemissionpermits,andfundr&dofnewtechnologies.theCommissionproposalalsoincludesa“safetyvalvemechanism” that allows additional permits to be purchased at aninitialpriceof$7permetrictonofcarbondioxide(CO2-equivalent).thesafetyvalvepricewould increasegraduallyby5%peryeartoprovideanincreasingmarketincentivetoreduceemissions.
the U.S. already has substantial experience with emissionstrading.the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 established anacid rain trading program generally considered to be “the mosteffective comprehensive emission trading program to date.”72 Asdiscussed inChapter13, anumberof states are forming regionaltradingprograms.73
market-basedmechanismssuchasanemissionstaxortradableemissionspermitsrelyonfinancialincentivesthatpricetheatmo-spheric releaseof specificamountsof carbondioxide.this standsin contrast to traditional methods of capping standard emissionslevels across theboard for all companiesor industry sectors.thistraditionalmethodlacksafinancialincentiveormarketmechanism.
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Withanemissiontax,ontheotherhand,acompanyischargedpertonofcarbondioxideitemits.thus,thebusinesses continue reducing emis-sionsuntilthecostofcarbondioxideemissions reduction is greater thanthetax.
Underanemissionstradingsystem,thegovernmentplacesatotalemissioncaporquotaontheemitters,inthiscasetheelectricpowersector.Itthendistributesemissionpermitsequalonlytothelevelofthecap.Ofcourse,thekeyhereisthelevelatwhichthecapisset.Andit isonthispointthatmillionsof lobbyingdollarsarespenttobesurethecapissetashighaspossibleforagivenindus-try.Eachcompanymusthavesufficientpermitstocoveritslevelofemissionsandmaytrade(buyorsell)permitswithothercompanies.Companieswithlowemissionreductioncostshavefinancialincen-tivestoreduceemissionsandsellexcesspermitstocompaniesthathavehigheremissionreductioncosts.Inthiscontext,bothpollutioncontrol innovators and traditional pollution emitting companieshaveincentivestofindnewandcheaperwaystoreducecarbondiox-ideemissions.74
A further benefit of the proposed carbon emission tradingsystemisthatitwouldcreateanewtradableasset.Ifcarbonwerepricedat$25perton,thetotalvalueofallcarbonemissionsin2000wouldhavebeennearly$40billion,comparedtothetotalmaximumvalueofabout$3billionforexistingacidrainpermits.
Whilereducinggreenhousegasesposesseveraluniqueprob-lems (taxes vs. permits, implementation, distribution, monitoring,andenforcement), todaymosteconomistsandmanyenvironmen-talistsagreethatsometypeofmarket-basedmechanismshouldbeincorporated into an effective strategy for controlling greenhousegases, and especially carbon dioxide emissions. this is primarilydrivenbythefactthatalmostallindustriesfavorthismarket-drivenapproach,andthereforeitistheeasiesttoadopt,providedthecarboncapisnotsettoolow.
“It is time to move from denial to action.”
— PaUL anderSon, ChairMan and Ceo, dUke enerGy CorP.
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However, there are a number of analysts who believe thatrequiring a polluter to be taxed for its emissions is the best waytocause thepolluter to internalize thecostofglobalwarmingonitsbooks, rather thanexternalizing that significantcost to societyat large.Arguments for this strictly regulatoryapproach, i.e.,“capbutnotrade,”arecogentlysummarizedinarecentarticlebydavidmorris.75 Hesuggests that,“Sofar, therealwinners inemissionstrading have been polluting factory owners who can sell menialcutsformassiveprofitsandthebrokerswhopocketfeeseachtimeacompanybuysorsellstherighttopollute.”Hisargumentsagainstcapandtradearefour-fold:
Using$10pertonofCO2astheaverageoffsetprice(current prices are as low as $3 per ton), the UnitedStates,whichgeneratesabout20percentoftheworld’sgreenhouse gases, could buy complete absolution forabout$50billionayear.Forthatpriceitwouldannounceto theworld . . . thatwearenot responsible foranynetnewgreenhousegases.thecostislessthanhalftheannualspendingonthewarinIraq,alittleover5percentofthePentagon’sannualbudget.
2. Carbon trading is inherently susceptible to fraud and manipulation.
morris correctly notes that global computerized trading isoftennon-transparent.Forexample,inarecentcapandtradedealconcerninga$5millionincineratorinChina,carbonoffsetsweresoldtoEuropeaninvestorsfor$500million.morrismaintainsthattheprofitsfromthistransactionwerelikelydividedamongthefactory’sowners,aChinesegovernmentenergyfund,andtheconsultantsandbankerswhoputthedealtogether.
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3. Carbon trading encourages cheating and rewards low-cost cosmetic changes while undermining higher cost innovation.
morrisargues:
thegreaterthe“baseline”emissions,thegreaterthepayoffthatcanbederivedfromsellingemission-reducingprojects.thus, there is a perverse incentive to emit asmuchgreenhousegasaspossibletodayinordertomakeprojectsappeartobesavingasmuchcarbonaspossibletomorrow.
Globalized carbon trading lends itself to similarcriticismsofglobalizedtradeagreements:thepreemptionof local andnational authority, the separationof thosewhomakethedecisionsfromthosewhofeeltheimpactofthosedecisions,theseparationofthosecommunitiesthatreceivethebenefitfromthosewhobearthecost.
those who criticize the cap and trade approach of sellingoffsetsstronglyfavorgovernmentregulationandsettingacapwith-outanytrade.morrispointstothefollowingexamples:
Onealternativeisgoodoldregulation,whichcontrarytothepopularwisdom,hasworkedverywell,especiallywhentheregulationsareperformance-based.theUnitedStatesrequired23yearstoeliminateleadedgasoline,inpartbecauseitcreatedaleadtradingprogram.Withoutallowingtrading,Japaneliminatedleadin10yearsandChinainthree.theCorporateAverageFuelEconomyregulation, enacted in 1975, did not allow trading buteffectivelydoubledautoefficiencywithin10years.the1970CleanAirAct,withoutallowingtrading,reducedemissionssignificantlythrougharegulatoryapproach.
implementingtheKyotoProtocol.thediscoveryofthedepletionofatmosphericozoneledtotheinternationalmontreal Accord. Signatories agreed to phase outspecificozonedepleting chemicals.theU.S.Congresscoupled the phase-out requirement with a very hightaxonchlorofluorocarbons,sendinganimportantpricesignalitcorrectlypredictedwouldacceleratephase-out.
While we are not negative on the cap and trade approach,werecommendahardlookatthecapwithoutthetrade.timehasproventhevalueoflegaldutiesthatcannotbetradedaway—indeedsuchlawsarethefoundationofthesocialandeconomicspheresoflifeinthiscountry.
the EU’s emission-trading scheme (EtS) should serve asa lesson to theU.S.of thepotentialweaknessesof cap-and-tradesystems.Inmarch2007,theEconomistofferedthiscritiqueoftheEU’sfailedsystemfortradableemissionallowances:
the principle is fine, but because governmentshanded out too many allowances, emissions have notfallenandthepriceofallowanceshasdroppedfrom€34($42)pertonneofCO2atitspeakayearagotoaround€1.20now—fartoolowtoinduceanybodytoconstraintheiremissions.76
Carboncapsarelikelytospeedupthepaceofinnovation.toescapefromourenvironmentalandnationalsecurityquagmire,wemust take full advantage of Americans’ unsurpassed aptitude fortechnological innovation.We strongly recommend that the statesandfederalgovernmentsprovideregulatoryincentivestospeedupthecommercializationofnewtechnologies.Acarboncapwouldbeonesuchincentive.AsdiscussedinChapter9,vehiclefuelefficiencyalmostdoubledafterthefederalgovernmentrespondedtothe1973oilcrisisbyimposingnewrequirementsonautomakers.
OfcourseAmericanswillhaveanationaldebateaboutthecostofacarboncapanditsimpactonoureconomy,butthere’sabiggerquestion:“Withcarbondioxidelevelsattheirhighestlevelsinthelast740,000years,methanelevelsattheirhighestlevelsinthelast650,000years,andthepotentialformoredeadlyreleasesofmethanefrommeltingpermafrostinSiberia—permafrostwhichalreadyhasmelted more than at any time since wooly mammals roamed theearth—canweaffordnottocapcarbon?”
Can There Be a Happy Ending?Can there be a happy ending? Absolutely! A rapid—not a
casual-over-50-years—transition to a non-fossil fuel economywould significantlymitigateourenvironmental, energy,economic,andcivilsecuritychallenges.Ourgloballeadershipcouldofferthissamemandateandopportunitytoothernationsoftheworldsothatclean,readilyavailableenergywouldbedemocratized.Asdescribedindetailinotherchapters,thePrometheusPlanrestsonthreepillarstobeimplementedoverthenext10years:
1.Immediate massive implementation of existing energyefficiencytechnologies,especiallyintransportation;
2.rapid transition to alternative non-nuclear, non-fossil fuelsbasedoncurrenttechnologies—biofuels,wind,solar—withafocusontransportation;and
Isanyofthispossible?Absolutely.It’salsogoingtobehighlyprofitableforthose“sunrise”companiesthatseizethisopportunityto co-create anewplanetary fuel system.Convertingover to thisnewfuelsystemwillenhanceourglobaleconomieswellbeyondourexpectations by stimulating innovation through existing, proventechnologies,andcreatingmillionsofnewjobs.manycompanies,states, and several nations are already moving in this direction.77GEandBPrecentlysignedajointventuretodevelopanddeploy15 commercial hydrogen power generation projects over the nextdecade.78 Costa rica derives 92% of its energy from renewableresources.Brazilisenergy-independentbecauseofitssugarcane-to-ethanolprogram.Brazil isalsomovingaggressively intobiodiesel.Germanygeneratesonethirdoftheworld’swind-poweredelectric-ityandhasplanstotripleitscapacityby2030.
tokyoGaslaunchedtheworld’sfirstresidentialhydrogenfuelcell system in February 2005. Homeowners can lease the system,whichextractshydrogenfromnaturalgasandgeneratesupto60%oftheenergyneededbyafour-personhousehold.Eachunitreducesthehousehold’sannualgreenhousegasemissionsby40%.A10-yearleasecosts$9,600,althoughthesavingsfromreducedenergydoesnotcompletelycoverthecostofthelease.thereisanannualshortfallof$340perhome,butthissystemdoesnotrequireanyofthelargegovernment subsidies that, for example, theoil industry currentlyenjoys.
Ourmotivationforproceedingpost-hastewiththePrometheusPlan is to help America achieve energy independence and takeadvantage of an unparalleled opportunity through our leadershipandcommitmenttobringpeace,security,andequalitytoadeeplychallenged world. Nowhere is this opportunity summed up morecogentlyandinspiringlythanbyAlGoreinhisbookandfilm,An Inconvenient Truth:
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theclimatechangecrisisoffersustheopportunitytoexperiencewhatveryfewgenerationsinhistoryhavehadtheprivilegeofknowing:agenerational mission;theexhilarationofacompellingmoralpurpose;asharedandunifyingcause;thethrillofbeingforcedbycircumstancestoputasidethepettinessthatsooftenstiflestherestlesshuman need for transcendence; the opportunity to rise. When we do rise, it will fill our spirits, and bind ustogether.thosewhoarenowsuffocatingincynicismanddespairwillbeabletobreathefreely.thosewhoarenowsuffocatingfromalossofmeaningintheirliveswillfindhope.79
11 James P. Collman, Naturally Dangerous (Sausalito, CA: University ScienceBooks,2001),179.
12 Flannery,op. cit.,182.
13 these CO2 emissions result from decomposing limestone and from burn-ingfossilfuelstogettherequiredhightemperatures.(limestoneiscalciumcarbonate,whichisdecomposedincementkilnstoCO2andcalciumoxide,acementbindingagent.)Brown,op. cit.,188.
62 the mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen is called “town Gas” andwasgenerated fromcoalduring the late19thandearly20thcenturies,andusedtofirestreetlampsandgasstoves.Itwaseventuallyreplacedbynaturalgas(methane)becausethelatterhasamuchhigherheatingvalue,andalsoissignificantlylesstoxic.
71 National Commission on Energy Policy, “Summary of recommendations,”Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges,Washington,d.C.,december2004,10.
72 For a comprehensive discussion of carbon taxes and carbon emissions, see“Pricing Carbon: An Overview,” National Commission on Energy Policy,Staff Background Paper, NCEP, November 2002, www.energycommission.org.
74 Ibid., 5. For example, an emission tax caps the cost per ton paid to reduceemissions.Sounderacarbontaxof$10perton,companieswouldinvestinallemissionreductionprojectsthatcostlessthan$10pertonandpaythetaxontheirremainingemissions.Emissionreductioncostsarelimitedto$10perton,andtotalemissionlevelswillfluctuate.Underatradablepermitsystem,wheretotalemissionsarecapped,thepriceofthepermitswillriseorfalltowhateverpriceisnecessarytobringemissionstothelevelofthecap.
