Climate Change Decision Support

System

Climate Services Webinar

Jay Day

December 2010

Climate Change Decision Support System

• What– A web-based decision support system to

demonstrate the effect of climate change on streamflow

• Why– Water Managers are interested in assessing

potential impacts of climate change on water availability

– Difficult and expensive to perform watershed-scale studies

– Need for cost-effective tools to support planning under an uncertain climate future

Climate Change Decision Support System

• How– Developed in parallel with Water Research

Foundation project working with Front Range water providers

– NWS watershed-scale hydrologic models– Models directly relate altered temperature and

precipitation regimes to changes in snowpack, soil moisture, and streamflow

– Climate- adjusted streamflow is produced from the available GCM runs for the different IPCC emission scenarios

Web-Based Climate Change DSS

Menu to choose climate models, emission scenarios and time period

Interactive map to quickly choose different sub-basins

Hydrograph depicts climate

adjusted streamflow

for each GCM run in the chosen sub-basin

Hadley CM3

Miroc Hires

Downscaled

http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/

GCM Model Grids Shown for the South Platte Basin

Information to improve understanding and

support assessment

Wyoming

Colorado

Nebraska

Monthly Variability in the Changes

Temperature

Precipitation

Visualization to analyze the variability in the GCM projections by sub-basin

Lake Powell Inflow Volume

1950 - 2000

Lake Powell Inflow Timing

2070 – A1B Emission Scenario

1950 - 2000

Future Developments

• Extension to additional basins• Spatial visualization of results• Interfacing with external operations

models• Multiple hydrologic models• Application to additional water sectors

http://www.climatechangedss.com