Waterloo Foundation

Oriel College

Founded 1326; fifth oldest college in Oxford

How will Africa’s forests look and function in the 21st century as a consequence of climate change, and how can management and planning influence such a future?

IPCC projections for 21st century

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Fos

sil F

uel E

mis

sion

(P

gCy-1

)

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Full range of IPCC

individual scenarios used for climate

projections

A1B Models Average

A1FI Models Average

A1T Models Average

A2 Models Average

B1 Models Average

B2 Models Average

Observed

Projected

Time (y)

21st century warming in an Earth history context

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

NW Amazonia

NE Amazonia

N Congo

E Indonesia

SW India

W Africa

C Amazonia

SW Amazonia

Cameroon

W Indones

S Congo

C America

SE Amazonia

Rate of Temperature Change (oC/decade)

Trends in mean temperature in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998

Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions

44

Figure 14

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

NW Amazonia

W Africa

SW India

N Congo

S Congo

SE Amazonia

Cameroon

E Malesia

Australia

SW Amazonia

W Malesia

Cent Amazonia

Cent America

Precipitation change (%/decade)

Trends in mean precipitation in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998

Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions

Conference outline

• All talks are 20 minutes long, with 20 minutes for discussion

• Please keep to time - the discussion is essential to the success of the conference

• At the end of each day there is a panel discussion and (on days 1-2) a poster session

Day 1: Overview and history Introduction to African rainforests The history of human interactions with climate and forests Day 2: Climate change and forest response Climate change projections for Africa The effects of contemporary change on forest structure and function Day 3 Navigating the pressures of the 21st century Deforestation, logging and hunting: direct pressures on the African tropical forests Forest conservation in the 21st century: potential and challenges

• How do African rainforests interact with climate?

• What are the likely patterns of climate change in Africa?

• How has the history and prehistory of African rainforests affected their likely response to climate change?

• Are there signals how how African forests are changing in response to ongoing climate change?

Can we identify regions of particular vulnerability and resilience to climate change? How do we maximize adaptation and resilience? How can conservation and development priorities be matched with maximising adaption to climate change? What do we need to know?

Outputs

Podcasts of presentations Synthesis paper: target for Science Special issue of a journal: e.g. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Possible conversion to book? Policy briefing summary notes

ISSN 0962-8436

volume 363

number 1498

pages 1725–1932

Climate change and the fate of the AmazonPapers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and Timmons Roberts

27 May 2008

volume 363 . number 1498 . pages 1725–1932

27 May 2008

Climate change and the fate of the AmazonPapers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and

Timmons Roberts

Preface 1727

Y. Malhi, T. Roberts & R. A. Betts

Review. The future of the

Amazon: new perspect ives from

climate, ecosystem and social

sciences 1729

R. A. Betts, Y. Malhi & J. T. Roberts

Interact ions among Amazon land

use, forests and climate: prospects

for a near-term forest t ipping

point 1737

D. C. Nepstad, C. M. Stickler,

B. Soares-Filho & F. Merry

Climate change, biofuels and

eco-social impacts in the Brazilian

Amazon and Cerrado 1747

D. Sawyer

Amazon Basin climate under global

warming: the role of the sea surface

temperature 1753

P. P. Harris, C. Huntingford &

P. M. Cox

An object ive t ropical At lant ic sea

surface temperature gradient

index for studies of south

Amazon dry-season climate

variability and change 1761

P. Good, J. A. Lowe, M. Collins

& W. Moufouma-Okia

Observed change of the standardized

precipitat ion index, its potent ial

cause and implicat ions to future

climate change in the Amazon

region 1767

W. Li, R. Fu, R. I. N. Juárez

& K. Fernandes

Hydro-climat ic and ecological

behaviour of the drought of

Amazonia in 2005 1773

J. A. Marengo, C. A. Nobre,

J. Tomasella, M. F. Cardoso &

M. D. Oyama

Interact ions between rainfall,

deforestat ion and fires during recent

years in the Brazilian Amazonia 1779

L. E. O. C. Aragão et al.

Fire-mediated dieback and

composit ional cascade in an

Amazonian forest 1787

J. Barlow & C. A. Peres

Fire, climate change and biodiversity

in Amazonia: a Late-Holocene

perspect ive 1795

M. B. Bush, M. R. Silman,

C. McMichael & S. Saatchi

Human dimensions of climate change:

the vulnerability of small farmers

in the Amazon 1803

E. S. Brondizio & E. F. Moran

Review. Effects of rising temperatures

and [CO2] on the physiology of

t ropical forest t rees 1811

J. Lloyd & G. D. Farquhar

The changing Amazon forest 1819

O. L. Phillips, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Baker,

K.-J. Chao & N. Higuchi

Impact of a drier Early-M id-Holocene

climate upon Amazonian forests 1829

F. E. Mayle & M. J. Power

Drought effects on lit ter fall, wood

product ion and belowground

carbon cycling in an Amazon forest :

results of a throughfall reduct ion

experiment 1839

P. M. Brando et al.

The fate of assimilated carbon during

drought : impacts on respirat ion in

Amazon rainforests 1849

P. Meir, D. B. Metcalfe, A. C. L. Costa

& R. A. Fisher

Towards quant ifying uncertainty in

predict ions of Amazon 'dieback' 1857

C. Huntingford et al.

Water recycling by Amazonian

vegetat ion: coupled versus uncoupled

vegetat ion–climate interact ions 1865

S. A. Cowling, Y. Shin, E. Pinto

& C. D. Jones

Effects of large-scale Amazon forest

degradat ion on climate and air

quality through fluxes of carbon

dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust

and isoprene 1873

R. Betts, M. Sanderson &

S. Woodward

Conservat ion st rategies to mit igate

impacts from climate change

in Amazonia 1881

T. J. Killeen & L. A. Solórzano

Review. Road building, land use

and climate change: prospects for

environmental governance in

the Amazon 1889

S. Perz et al.

Environmental policy-making networks

and the future of the Amazon 1897

M. C. Lemos & J. T. Roberts

Taking things public: a cont ribut ion

to address human dimensions of

environmental change 1903

D. S. Alves

Review. Navigat ing Amazonia under

uncertainty: past , present and future

environmental governance 1911

E. Boyd

Generat ing carbon finance through

avoided deforestat ion and its

potent ial to create climat ic,

conservat ion and human

development benefits 1917

J. Ebeling & M. Yasué

Better RED than dead: paying the

people for environmental services

in Amazonia 1925

A. Hall

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