Climate Change and Drought:Understanding the Indian Perspective

Dr. Vinod K. SharmaSenior Professor, Disaster ManagementIndian Institute of Public Administration

and

Executive Vice Chairman, Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority

Natural Disaster Trends

• Since 1950s number of major natural disasters increased fourfold

• Economic losses risen 14 times

Climate Change

• Climate is the long-term average of a region's weather events lumped together.

• Climate change represents a change in these long term weather patterns. They can become warmer or colder.

• Annual amounts of rainfall or snowfall can increase or decrease.

Climate change and natural hazards

• Sea-level rise inevitable of up to 80 cm by 2100

• Other forecasts:– Increased numbers and intensity

of tropical cyclones – Extreme precipitation– More droughts– Glacial melting & increased

mountain hazards– More wildfires– Irregular weather behaviour

The predicted change in ARCTIC SEA ICE between 1950 and 2050, According to a climate model run by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

The components of the global climate system - A schematic view (Source: IPCC)

Defining Drought

• A period in which water supplies are “substantially” below average for a particular place and season

Types of Drought:– Meteorological Drought– Hydrological Drought– Agricultural Drought– Socio-economical drought

Natural Climate Variability

Economic Impacts Social Impacts Environmental Impacts

Tim

e (

dura

tion)

Meteorological Drought

Agricultural Drought

Hydrological Drought

Increased evaporation and transpiration

Precipitation deficiency (amount, intensity,

timing)

High temp., high winds, low relative humidity, greater sunshine, less

cloud coverReduced infiltration, runoff, deep

percolation, and ground water recharge

Land water stress, reduced biomass and yield

Reduced stream flow, inflow to reservoirs, lakes, and

ponds; reduced wetlands, wildlife habitat

Soil water deficiency

Categories of Drought

It is defined by climatic variables (precipitation, humidity) and the duration of the dry period.

It links characteristics of meteorological drought to agricultural impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential evapo-transpiration, soil water deficits, etc.

It is associated with effects on surface or subsurface water supplies (i.e., stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, groundwater).

Socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply (National related shortfall in water supply (National Drought Mitigation Center, 2000).

Droughts in India

• Mainly from failure of rains from the south-west monsoon

• 21 large-scale droughts in last century • Greater frequencies during 1891-1920, 1965-90 and

1997-2000

During the monsoon season (June-September) of 1987, over 260 districts and 285 million persons affected

Drought Management Includes

• Drought Monitoring, Forecasting & Impact Assessment

• Drought Relief• Drought Planning and Mitigation (Long term

planning & Mitigation Exercise)

Drought Management Stakeholders

Drought Management

Monitoring, Forecasting

& Impact Assessment

Relief

CWC, CGWB, Ministry of Water

Resources

NRSA, SAC, NNRMS

IMD, DMD, AgriMet, National

Center for Medium Range Weather

Forecast

Crop Weather Watch Group, National Crop Forecasting Center, Min. of Agril., ICAR

State Drought Monitoring Cell, State Agril. Dept, State Reomote Sensing Agency, Agril. Univ.

State Agril. Dept., Agril. Extension Workers, KVKs, Agricultural Univ.Min. of Water Resources Department (CGWB/CWC- Reservoir / Canal Regulation, Alternative Water SourcesNational Seed Corporation – Seed allocation as per DMD adviceMin. of Railways – Water Transportation/Fodder/SeedsAnimal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries – Feed & Fodder Development

ICAR/Boards - Expert Advice on Cropping Pattern, Tillage Practices, Drought Tolerance Seeds/ Varieties

Banking Sector NABARD/RBI/Gramin Bank- Crop & Cattle Insurance, Rural Infrastructure Develop. Fund, Credit Management (??)

Agro & Rural Industries – Rural Employment

Fertilizers, Min. of Chemicals & Fertilizers

Health & Family Welfare- minimizing the effect of heat

stroke/dehydrationFood & Public Distribution (PDS)

Affected District Administration Collector

Non-Govt. Organization – Foreign AidsMin. Petroleum & Natural Gas – To allocate additional diesel

Min. of Rural Development

Women & Child Development – ICDS Program for Nutritional Program to

vulnerable sections

Min. HRD – Drought Mgmt teaching

Min. of Law & Justice – Legal Advice on drought litigation matters

Planning & Mitigation(Programs with Short Terms/Long Terms)

PMO – Drought Briefing

Planning Commission – Policy Planning & allocation of fund

Cabinet Secretariat – Monitor acute drought condition & seek various reports

Agri. Minister, Agril. Sect.

Disaster Management Steering Committee

Regional Climatology Group, Local Area Impact Assessment

Group, Drought Impact Reporter

Inter. Agencies – NOAA, NASA, EROS, USGS, etc.

Min. of Agriculture – Watershed Mgmt., Dryland farming, Rainfed Agril.Min. of Rural Development – Aggregated Rural Water supply Program, SWAJAL Dhara, Int. Watershed Devel. Program, etc.,Min. of Environment & Forest – Afforestation & Eco Develop, Farm Forestry, etc.Min. of Water Resources – Water Conservation, Rain Water Harvesting, Reservoir Cons, GW Recharge, etc.Min. of Finance – RBI, NABARD, Gramin Bank, etc.

As-Is ProcessNRSA• Meteorological Satellite

Images INSAT & NOAA• INSAT Payload –

– Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR),

– Data Relay Transponder (DRT),

– Charged Coupled Device Camera (CCD) - on INSAT-2E only,

• IRS 1C/1D WiFS (Wide Field Sensors) spatial resolution of 188m and a weekly repeat coverage

• Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Data (AVHRR)

• Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) 1KMX1KM

• State wise Drought Products (based upon AVHRR & IRS WiFS satellite Data)

IMDObservatories Meteorological

Observatories (Manual & Automated

Agro-meteorological Observatories - AgriMet Pune (109/124 network)

Meteorological Data Dissemination

IMDPS transmits processed INSAT imagery,

Meteorological data and Fax weather charts to

IMD's field forecasting offices across the country using Meteorological Data Dissemination (MDD) facility.

Synoptic bulletins of cloud organization and coverage

IMD Agro-meteorological Advisory Services Unit

Short range forecast 12-24 hours

Advisory Services for 2 to 3 days

Agro meteorological forecast over a week or 10 days (medium range) are very important

Weather Bulletin

Min. of Water Resources

Surface Hydrological Data

Reservoir Level River Monitoring Flood

Forecasting Ground Water

Data Ground Water

Table Ground Water

Mapping Ground Water

recharge analysis

Regional Drought Center

Regional Drought Analysis

Having own network of meteorological and climatological data capturing

Agriculture universities for Soil Moisture Analysis

Generate the regional data products and weekly reports

Isolated effort on release of products for drought monitoring, forecasting and

assessment

Data Collection & Validation

Data Cleaning (QC)

Observatories/ Remote Sensing Data Meteorological (Relational Data),

Agro-meteorological (Relational data), Hydrological (Relational Data),

Satellite Images (Image/Vector Data),

Drought Information

Network(Pull/Push

Publish/ Subscribe)

Data Warehouse

Data Analysis

Product Generation

Third Party Reports/Bulletin Drought Reports Advisory Reports

Weather Bulletin Board

Advisory Services

Product Verification

Experts Agriculturist-Agronomist Hydrologists Meteorologist/Climatologist Remote Sensing & GIS Experts

Policies

Policies Drought Management Drought Relief Sustainable Mgmt. of Agril. Water Mgmt. Policies

Local Area Impact Assessment Groups/

Regional Climatologist/ Drought Impact Reporters

Drought Impact Assessment & Quantification

Indices Meteorological Indices Hydrological Indices Agricultural Indices

Data Types Structure Data Unstructured Data Image Data Vector Data

Data Analysis Statistical Analysis Interpolation/Extrapolation Spatial GIS Analysis Image Processing

Processes in Drought Monitoring, Forecasting and Assessment

Case Study I: Local Water Governance

• Mahur village, Maharashtra was barren 20 years ago, but is now a green oasis

• There was an acute shortage of water for agriculture.

The barren land of Mahur

• A Pani Panchayat (water council) established

• Contour bunds built through to irrigate the fields

• Trees, fruit, crop planted on the land

• Percolation tank constructed to recharge groundwater

Irrigation tank at Mahur

Equitable distribution of water

Irrigation water to be distributed on a per capita basis, for maximum of 5 individuals per family

1 person entitled to water for half acre of land, water share not linked to size of land holdings Pani Panchayat in action

Case Study II: Water Harvesting

• Tarun Bharat Sangh (NGO) focused on management of water resources.

• Constructed over 4000 water harvesting structures (or johads) through participation

Rajendra Singh of TBS addressing villagers

Rajendra Singh won the Magsaysay Award for community leadership in 2001

The Arvari River case

• Arvari River in Rajasthan lay dried due to drought for decades

• A small johad constructed on the river, making possible throughout the year

• From not even one crop a year, farmers started getting 2 crops a year

A view of the rebuilt Arvari River

Case: Check Dam Revival

• Nimbi village in Rajasthan, lies in a sandy desert

• A 200-year old check dam collapsed and led to total dependence on rain water

• In 1994, two check dams constructed. 25% of the cost of the dams was borne by the villagers.

Other traditional techniques…

• A kund or kundi looks like an upturned cup nestling in a saucer

• These structures harvest rainwater for drinking

• Orissa: medicinal plants support livelihood

Similar technology in other places…

• Karizes in Afghanistan• Water systems in Pakistan• Water tanks in Sri Lanka• Stepwells and Baolis in

North India• Khaatris in Himalayan

region• Temple tanks in South

Asia

Linking Lessons with Policy Environment

Growing Concerns

• History of drought and famine• IPCC indications - increasing droughts and floods• Unpredictability is increasing• More poor people are living in vulnerable areas• Shifting patterns - floods in desert of Rajasthan and

drought in flood prone area of Assam• Long-lasting impacts on livelihoods• Distress migration leads to urban explosion• High-tech options too expensive

Business Context Diagram for Drought Monitoring, Forecasting & Impact Assessment

Department of Transport

Global Drought Monitoring, Forecasting

& Assessment

Advices, Policies, Impact Assessments, Crop Watch, Drought Programs, Agril-Meteorological Data, etc.

Meteorological, Agro-meteorological data, indices, weather bulletin, agro-meter. Advisories, Medium Range Weather Forecast, etc.

Reservoir Levels, Ground Water Levels, Water Resources Related Policies, Advisories, Drought Indices, etc.

Drought Monitoring at regional level, network of rainfall/ agro-meteorological observatories, regional advisories, etc.

Validation of Global Products, Inputs on drought impact, economic losses, regional/local advisories, etc.

Information Services, Drought Products, Weather Bulletins, Agril. Advisory Services, Policies, Drought Planning & Mitigation Programs, etc.

IMD, National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,

IRS 1C/1A Satellite Data, VHRR, WiFS, Vegetation Drought Indices, etc..

National Remote Sensing Agency, NNRMS, SAC

State Drought Monitoring Cell, State Agril. Dept., State Remote Sensing Authorities. Regional Climatologist Assessment Group

International Institutions - NOAA, NASA, EROS, USGS,

USDA Crop Weather Watch Group,

National Crop Forecast Group, Min. of Agri; Indian Council of

Agril Research

CWC, CGWB, Min. of Water Resources

Local Area Impact Assessment

Group/Drought Impact Reporters

Farmers/Users/ Business Users/ Drought Response Center

Drought Advices, Assist in Policies Sharing, Drought Research Programs, AVHRR, MODIS, USGS Data for Drought Monitoring

DRH

Field to Policy: Institutional Arrangement

Secretary (Agriculture)

P.M.O. / NDMA

Agriculture Minister

Cabinet Secretariat

Crisis Management Group

Drought Management Division

Proposed National Centre for Drought Monitoring and

Mitigation

CWWGCrop Weather Watch Group

ICARIndian Council of Agricultural Research

IMDIndian Meteorological Division

NCMRWFNational Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast

CWCCentral Water Commission

DSTDepartment of Science and Technology

Affected and Prone States

UniversitiesAgricultural, Technical

Research Institutions: IARI, CAZRI, ICRISAT, Kyoto University, Oxford Brookes University, African Centre for Disaster Studies

Social Studies: Tata Institute for Social Sciences

Community Based (NGOs):SEEDS, Rama Krishna Mission, Development Alternatives

International NGOs:Oxfam, AKDN, CARE

Bilateral/Multilateral Agencies:UNDP, EC, UNISDR, UNFAO, World Bank, ADB

IIPA: Indian Institute of Public Administration

ATIs: Administrative Training Institutes

NIDM: National Institute for Disaster Management

National Universities

Outreach programmes of agricultural institutions and NGOs

NCERT: National Council for Education, Research and Training

CBSE: Central Board of Secondary Education

SPHERE India – NGO consortium for disaster response

NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority

Line Ministries: Home, Water Resources, Civil Supplies, Health and others

SAARC Centre for Disaster Management

Planning Commission

UNDMT: United Nations Agencies working in India, related to disaster management

Monitoring Action Research Training Policy

Thank You!