Climate ChangeEffects on Biodiversity

The peak of Mt Kilimanjaro as it has not been seen for 11,000 years

1980

1980

2007

2007

Upsala glacier

1928

2004Foto: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra

Drivers of loss

Latest IPCC report summary (2/07) Ocean absorbing > 80% extra heat, causing

water to expand and sea levels to rise. 1961 and 2003 average sea level rose by

1.8mm a year. 1993 and 2003 rose by 3.1mm a year.

Arctic temperatures increased x2 the global average rate over the past 100 years, and the ice has shrunk by 2.7% each decade.

More intense and longer droughts, particularly in the tropics and sub-tropics

North Atlantic there has been an increase in the incidence of typhoons and hurricanes.

Biodiversity implications?

Die-offs

Extinctions

Life Cycles

Physiology

Coral bleaching die-offs of up to 50% in the Indian Ocean

A species of Golden Toad in Costa Rica

Gothic marmots emerge from hibernation about a month earlier than 30 years ago

The average weight of adult female polar bears has decreased by more than 20%

over the last 25 years

A big “loser”: Coral Reefs Escalating level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is

making the world's oceans more acidic (not a simple C “sink”)

pH of oceans stable 1000 -- 1800, dropped one-tenth of a unit since the Industrial Revolution and likely another 0.3 units by 2100

CO2 forms carbonic acid and lowers ocean pH, making it harder for corals, plankton and marine snails to form their body parts.

Big changes in “Phenology” with unknown effects…advance of spring events (bud burst, flowering, breaking hibernation, migrating, breeding)

Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. NATURE 421 (6918): 57-60.

Alastair Fitter…

Poleward range shifts have been documented for individual species, as have expansions of warm-adapted communities, on all continents and in most of the major oceans.

Nearly 60% of the 305 species found in North America in winter are on the move, shifting their ranges northward by an average of 35 miles.

Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show more severe range contractions than other groups and have been the first groups in which whole species have gone extinct due to recent climate change

MacDonald and Brown 1992

Evolutionary responses have been documented (mainly in insects), butthere is little evidence that observed genetic shifts are of the type or magnitude to prevent predicted species extinctions.

Turtles and global warming

Painted Turtles - From Janzen PNAS (1994)

Conservation Implications

Hatchling loggerhead turtles in Florida from 87 to 99.9 percent females

Heavily influenced by beach management a 2 degree C warming of the sand would put

temperatures solidly in the female- producing range for the entire population

(N. Mrosvovsky and J. Provancha, "Sex ratio of hatchling loggerhead sea turtles: data and estimates from a 5-year study," Canadian Journal of Zoology, v. 70, p. 530 - 538, 1992).

Response?

Projected temperature changes ~ 2-3 degrees C

Slow generation times Remote possibility that turtles can evolve

quickly enough to track such environmental change and maintain balanced sex ratios in the wild.

The View from New York State…

see:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/index.html

By the end of the century, New York summers may feel like those of current-day Illinois

Saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrow, glossy ibis…

Moving waters Slower stream velocity, Low depth of flow, High water temperature Higher levels of turbidity All = lower levels of dissolved

oxygen

Winter

Spring

Summer

Temporary waters

Lakes Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Increased evaporation and

lower recharge rates Lake Erie levels to decrease by

as much as five feet by 2100

Forests

Range periphery species

Adirondacks are particularly climate-vulnerable

“Assisted migration”?

Is there a silver lining?

…of climate change for biodiversity?

Continued supply of ecosystem services depends on capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change, e.g.: maintenance of forests in water

catchment areas, where landslides are likely to occur after heavy rain,

maintenance and restoration of natural wetlands, to store water and regulate water base flows

Ecosystem resilience: backbone of adaptation

; Terrestrial carbon stocks

Ecosystem resilience: path to carbon mitigation

Sequester when natural, tC/ha/year

Emit when degraded, tC/ha/year

Tundra (permafrost)

0 10

Boreal forests 0.4-1.5 10-55

Temperate mixed forests

6.3 0.5

Temperate peatlands

0 3-5

Temperate grasslands

0.2 0.2

Semi-deserts 0.13 0.13

Steppe -0.0009

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems

Why? Because of permanence

Protected areas

Disaster relief: prevent and retain: Avalanche Hurricane Flooding Tidal surges Drought

Resources: for people: Clean water Fish spawning Wild food Building materials Local medicines Shelter

Future resources: from wild species including: Agrobiodiversity Pharmaceuticals Other genetic material

Sequestration: Carbon capture and storage in: Forests Grasslands Inland waters Marine systems Soil and humus

In theory PAs is the best solution

Total and stored within the protected areas network (green ) 13.7% of world’s terrestrial area is protected, but contain 15.2% of C stock

85% carbon is outside

protected areas

In practice: carbon pools protected and not

Increase coverage, level of protection and management effectiveness,

Integrated protected areas in territorial plans – networks, corridors, incl. trans-boundary,

Carbon stock management, incl. linkages to carbon markets

Ecosystem-based adaptation

Work ahead to expand role of PAs

Outside PA’s: REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and

Forest Degradation "plus" conservation = the sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks)

Generates funding and political will to protect forests combat climate change improve human well-being in developing nations.

REDD+ a suite of policies, institutional reforms and monetary

incentives for developing countries to reduce “DD” Governments, industry and local communities Developing countries:

Need policies and technical capacity, legal frameworks and financial mechanisms in developing countries

Industrialized countries need policy and business leaders involved market-based approaches to create a demand for forest

carbon offsets

REDD+: A Win-Win for Climate and Biodiversity  Rate of extinctions projected to be

dramatically reduced By 46-80 percent over a period of five years

But only if: Viable investment opportunities exist. Developing and advancing standards that

stimulate markets for forest carbon. Private sector investment in REDD+ is catalyzed

http://www.buerkleforcongress.com/index.php/issues/

Energy and the Environment Energy policy is a national priority and is critically important in Central and Western New York.

Sound national energy policies will enable America to obtain energy supplies from a wide range of sources in a way that is best for the economy and at the same time addresses homeland and national security considerations while creating incentives for responsible stewardship of the nation’s resources and environment.

The solution was not, is not, and never will be “cap and trade” legislation. The passage of a cap and trade bill would mean that the federal government would set a limit on the amount of pollution companies are permitted to emit and require them to obtain allowances or credits for that specific amount. …Cap and trade legislation would place an enormous burden on Central New York families – higher gasoline prices, higher heating costs, higher energy taxes, higher unemployment. Cap and trade, if enacted, would create a new national energy tax, destroy jobs and economic growth, and further damage the economy for decades to come.

End climate change