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Climate Webinars for Educators:
Extreme WeatherClimate Change Impact, Adaptation and Mitigation
April 16, 2014
Dr. Patricia Romero-Lankao and Dr. Kevin TrenberthNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Moderation and Organization:Deb Morrison & Dr. Anne GoldUniversity of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Research Environmental Sciences
Produced by Kit Seeborg for Learn More About ClimateRecorded at ATLAS Institute, University of Colorado Boulder
edf.org
What is climate change?
How do we know it is happening?
Data from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., NOAA. Data prior to 1974 from C. Keeling, Scripps Inst. Oceanogr.
Changing atmospheric composition: CO2
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Rate increasing
ppm390380370360350340330320310
1960 1970 1980 1990 . 2000 2010
Global temperature and carbon dioxide: anomalies through 2013
Base period 1900-99; data from NOAATrenberth and Fasullo 2013 updated
Global Warming is UnequivocalIPCC AR5
Since 1970, rise in: Decrease in: Global surface temperatures - NH Snow extent Tropospheric temperatures - Arctic sea ice Global SSTs, ocean Ts - Glaciers Global sea level - Cold
temperatures Water vapor Rainfall intensity Precipitation extratropics Hurricane intensity Drought Extreme high temperatures Heat waves Ocean acidity
Website forClimate Science for Educators Webinars
https://sites.google.com/site/climatescienc
ewebinars/extreme-weather
What are weather extremes?
How are they defined in terms of social impact?
What kinds of data do social scientists use?
Source: Skeptical Science
Changes in extremesMatter most for society and human health
With a warming climate: More high temperatures, heat waves Wild fires and other consequences Fewer cold extremes.
More extremes in hydrological cycle: More intense precipitation Longer dry spells
Increased risk of flooding and drought More intense storms, hurricanes, tornadoes
Major challenges for a water manager
Risk is the possibility of negative outcomes resulting from the combination of
hazards and capacities of exposed populations and
the interaction of broader societal and environmental processes that shape their experience of risk
Hazards are probable or looming stresses people are exposed to
• One-off extremes• Slow-onset events• Subtle everyday threats
In our Framework
Patricia Romero-Lankao, Sara Hughes, Jorgelina Hardoy, Hua Qin, Angélica Rosas-Huerta, Roxana Bórquez, Andrea Lampis (2012) and (2013)
Vulnerability/capacity • Individual features (age)• Household assets (education,
income, housing, social networks)
• Infrastructures/built environment• Governance (territorial planning,
services, pollution controls, ..)
(1) Text color denotes categories of vulnerability dimensions. Green = Hazard; Yellow = Exposure; Red = Sensitivity; Blue = Adaptive capacity/adaptation
(2) Symbols in parentheses = direction of relationship between vulnerability and outcome (medium or high level of agreement only)
+ positive relationship (increases vulnerability); - negative relationship (decreases vulnerability); ~ no relationship
Determinants of urban populations vulnerability to temperature across 224 cities globally
Source: Patricia Romero Lankao, Hua Qin and Katie Dickinson 2012
What types of impacts of climate change have been observed?
How well do we understand the risk and how predictable are events?
Climate Change Impacts
1) Climate change is not necessarily bad. There are always winners and losers.In some regions, a longer growing season is a big benefit.
2) But rapid climate change is always bad because it is disruptive.
3) We are adapted to our current climate, almost by definition. So in that sense change is bad.
4) But increases in extremes are hard to manage, and so certain changes can be costly and have big impacts:
heat waves, wild fires, heavy rains, floods, storms, drought.
Observed impacts of climate change
Widespread & consequential:
Increases in heat waves
Increases in heavy precipitation
Decreases in frost days
Earlier peak of snowmelt run-off
Declines in snowpack
Source: Romero-Lankao et al.,2014
Wilton Conn. Heatwave July 2013 Alex von KleydorffUS Today
Northern Rocky Mountains Scientific American.com
Impacts from recent climate-related extremes in North America reveal significant vulnerability of places & people
Figure: a map (bottom) population density at 1km resolution = exposure; a map (top) significant weather events during 1993-2012 illustrating vulnerability; four panels (right) trends in vulnerability indicators. Source: Romero-Lankao et al., 2014
Projected Changes in Extremes
What is the risk of extreme events to occur?
How well do we understand the risk?
How confident are scientists?
Likelihood vs Confidence
Likelihood Level of Confidence≠ The chance of a defined outcome occurring in the
physical world.
Is estimated using expert judgment.
The degree of understanding and / or
consensus among experts.
Is a statement about expert judgment.
Distinct concepts
IPCC Manning
Key Risks: Criteria
• Impact– Large magnitude
– High probability
– Irreversibility
• Vulnerability or exposure
• Limited mitigation or adaptation potential
Sources: www.hcn.org and http://photos.denverpost.com
http://www.poweringthewest.org/2013/06/14/historic-boulder-canyon
Can you discuss a couple examples of impacts of extreme
weather in the US?
Super Storm Sandy: Oct 29-31, 2012.It was more intense with stronger winds because of climate change
Sea level is higher => Much greater damage
Hybrid storm:Over $70B damages>110 lives lost
U.S. Temperatures: 2012 Hottest year on record
362 all time record Highs 3,527 monthly weather records0 record lows
U.S. Drought and wildfires June 2013
Dust storm Lamar, CO(June 15, Denver Post)
Black Forest wildfire CO: >511 homes burned
You have shared some examples from the US – what is the effect of climate change on other parts of
the world?
Locations of tree mortality induced by substantial drought and heat (1970-2011)
Source IPCC 2014 Technical Summary
2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERC
ENTA
GE O
FYI
ELD
PROJ
ECTI
ONS
02090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increasein Yield
Decreasein Yield
Calgary, AlbertaCanadaFlooding21-22 June 2013
What are strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate
change?
Approaches for managing the risks of
climate change
Climate Information System
Trenberth 2008
Climate-change adaptation as an iterative risk management process with multiple feedbacks
Source: IPCC 2014 Summary for Policy Makers
What are challenges with respect to adaptation to and mitigation of
climate change?
IPCC reports are scientific in nature but often result in
politically charged discussion – Can you speak to the tension?
Where do we go from here?
Website forClimate Science for Educators Webinars
https://sites.google.com/site/climatescienc
ewebinars/extreme-weather
Climate Webinars for Educators:Extreme Weather
Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and MitigationApril 16, 2014
Dr. Patricia Romero-Lankao and Dr. Kevin TrenberthNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Moderation and Organization:Deb Morrison & Dr. Anne GoldUniversity of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Research Environmental Sciences
Produced by Kit Seeborg for Learn More About ClimateRecorded at ATLAS Institute, University of Colorado Boulder