Date post: | 14-Apr-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | accion-rse |
View: | 214 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 33
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
1/33
The Critical Decade 2013Climate change science, risks and responses
Professor Will Steffen
www.climatecommission.gov.au
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
2/33
Outline of talk
Basics of climate science
Risks of a changing climate
Responding to climate change challenges and
opportunities
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
3/33
The atmosphere is warming
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
4/33
Source: IPCC AR4
Where does the excess heat go?
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
5/33
The ocean is warming
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
6/33
Changes faster than predicted
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
7/33
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
8/33
Warming is occurring worldwide
IPCC AR4 2007
Observed 20thcenturywarmingcan only beexplained byincluding bothdrivers of naturalvariability andthe additional
greenhousegases emitted byhuman activities.
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
9/33
2,000 year global land temperature
reconstruction
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
10/33
Climate Change Science: Summary
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is nowevident from increases in global average air and oceantemperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level.
Numerous changes in climate have been observed at the
scales of continents or ocean basins - wind patterns,precipitation, ocean salinity, sea ice, ice sheets, and aspectsof extreme weather.
It is very likelythat anthropogenic greenhouse gas increasescaused most of the observed increase in globally averagedtemperatures since the mid-20th century.
IPCC AR4 2007
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
11/33
Decisions: risks and opportunities
Meinshausen et al. 2009
Decision point
Risks
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
12/33
Extreme weather and climate change
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
13/33
We are living in a new climate
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
14/33
Heatwaves
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
15/33
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks ofExtreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
16/33
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks ofExtreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
Projected return periodof hot day compared with
late 20th century return
period of 20 years
B1
A1B A2
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
17/33
Heavy rainfall and flooding
I fl f i h
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
18/33
Influence of warming on the water
cycle
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
19/33
Rainfall deciles
1 Aug - 31 Dec 2010
SST anomalies
1 Aug - 31 Dec 2010
SST and rainfall extremes
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
20/33
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks ofExtreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
Projected return periodof heavy daily rainfall
compared with late20th century return
period of 20 years
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
21/33
Changing rainfall patterns
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
22/33
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks ofExtreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
Gray shading: less than 66% model agreement on sign of change
Coloured shading: 66% model agreement on sign of changeStippling: 90% model agreement on sign of change
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
23/33
Consequences of sea-level rise
Western Australia
Perth region
Torres Strait Islands
I fl f l l t l
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
24/33
Influence of sea-level on coastal
flooding
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
25/33
Sea-level rise projections
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
26/33
J. Hunter 2011
Adapting to sea-level rise
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
27/33
Polar ice sheets and sea-level rise
Rignot et al. 2011
Source: Shepherd at al. 2012
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
28/33
Decisions: risks and opportunities
Meinshausen et al. 2009
Decision point
Risks
Opportunities
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
29/33
Opportunities: New Energy Systems
Silicon wafer
Rear metal
Electron
Solar ThermalSolar Concentrators
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
30/33
Opportunities: built infrastructure
Mitigation aim for C-neutrality inall buildings. Or generate moreelectricity than is consumed. Sixgreen star (or above) could become
the standard.
Adaptation
Minimise resource use e.g., water Design to minimise impact of extreme heat Build green star communitiesgreen infrastructure Dont build on vulnerable coastlines or flood-prone areas
O t iti i i di id l
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
31/33
Opportunities: engaging individuals
and communities
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
32/33
Key Messages
The evidence for climate change is overwhelming andclear. It is beyond reasonable doubt that the burning of
fossil fuels is the primary cause.
We are already seeing the social, economic and
environmental impacts of a changing climate, especially
extreme events. The risks rise as climate shifts further.
Risks to business include climate change impacts, policy
changes, stranded assets, loss of community support.
Opportunities for business include new green industries,
rise of prosumers, networking
7/29/2019 Climate Change for Chile_Will Steffen
33/33
www.climatecommission.gov.au