Climate Change HlhP bl &H lhSliHealth Problems & Healthy...

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeH l h P bl & H l h S l iH l h P bl & H l h S l iHealth Problems & Healthy SolutionsHealth Problems & Healthy Solutions

26 May 200926 May 2009

CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL

Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?

387 ppm387 ppm ?Small Caps11

Stable statesStable states

280 ppm Medium Polar Caps

or cold reversal

COCO22

180 ppm Large Polar Caps

22

COCO2 2 + NO+ NOxxs + CFCs + methane +Hs + CFCs + methane +H22OO

22

–– SOSOxxs + black soot = s + black soot = 22

? ppm CO? ppm CO22--equivalent or GWPequivalent or GWP

460 ppm CO2e

(1.66 W/m(1.66 W/m22))

33

(0.9 W/m(0.9 W/m22))

AlbedoAlbedoTundraTundra

Ice melt is accelerating

Sea level rise Arctic sea ice


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL HH22O vaporO vapor

Deep Ocean WarmingDeep Ocean Warmingp gp g

14

16Precipitation over the Continental U.S since 1970Precipitation over the Continental U.S since 1970

12

14Rain 7%

Mumbai 37.1” Mumbai 37.1” PP

8

1022 timesHeat content in exajoulesHeat content in exajoules>2”/d 14%

26 July 2005 26 July 2005

1, 000 deaths1, 000 deaths>6”/d 27%TT

PP

6

8

>4”/d 20%

,,

2

4>4 /d 20%

0A SI MG An Atm CG C WOArctic Sea ice Mt glac Antarctic Atm Cont glac Cont OceanGlobal Hydrological Cycle


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL Levitus et al. Science 2005

y g y

HEATWAVESMay/June 2003

Andhra Pradesh

T 122oF

>1400 deaths

HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES & TMINSHUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES & TMINS

E 2003Europe 2003



July Floods - Japanese B encephalitis



Mozambique Floods Mozambique Floods 20002000

Figure 1: Malaria Cases and Maputo Precipitation, 1999-2001

1000 3 5

200 400 600 800

1000

mal

aria

cas

es

0.511.522.533.5

prec

ipita

tion

(inch

es)

malaria casesmaputo precip

0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151

weeks (Jan99-Dec01)

0

FiveFive--fold spike in malaria incidencefold spike in malaria incidenceCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


FiveFive--fold spike in malaria incidencefold spike in malaria incidence

Meningitis beltBurkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and UgandaBurkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and Uganda

>15, 000 cases >1600 deaths >15, 000 cases >1600 deaths Mar 2007Mar 2007

Niger > 8000 cases, 800 deaths Niger > 8000 cases, 800 deaths M 2009M 2009 RVFRVF

20042004--20062006

May 2009May 2009 RVFRVF

malariamalaria

h lh l

FloodsFloods

20062006choleracholera

20072007DROUGHT



Chikungunya Chikungunya feverfever

Bark Beetles and Forest FiresBark Beetles and Forest Fires

Injury, Respiratory Disease, Water,

Wildlife PropertyWildlife, Property, Carbon Pulse

Timber industryCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURESTORMS

2005

HURRICANE IVAN 2004

RANGE CHANGE: SOYBEAN SUDDENRANGE CHANGE: SUDDEN DEATH

SYNDROME

FLOODS: Fungi and Nematodes

DROUGHTS: Aphids, Whiteflies, LocustCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


Severe drought associated with konzo epidemicg p


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOLNampula 1981

COCO22 and Cyanide in Cassava Leavesand Cyanide in Cassava LeavesCOCO2 2 and Cyanide in Cassava Leavesand Cyanide in Cassava Leaves

2000 50 years time

1500basi

s)

50 years time

1500

ry m

ass

b

1000

e (p

pm d

500

Cya

nid

20 years timeOO

CHCH33OO

glucoseglucose

0380 560 710

CyanideCyanideglucoseglucose



Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)

Zambezi 2005: konzo epidemicp



Konzo related to high cyanide dietKonzo related to high cyanide diet



Plant yieldPlant yield

Tuber growth

TODAY’S AIRTODAY’S AIR



Plant yield

TODAY’S AIR AIR in 2060

Plant yield



Climate Change in Our Backyards Climate Change in Our Backyards

COCOCOCO22

Heatwaves & smog Mold

70 Pollen P ti l t & ll

30

40

50

60

HeightSeed MassPollen

Pollen Particulates & pollen

Poison IvyWNV** Tree pollen

0

10

20

CO2 350ppm

CO2 700ppm

PollenBiomass

St lk 2X CO2X CO

Ragweed

LymeMushroom spores

Stalks 2X CO2X CO22

Ag Ag weedsweeds



weedsweeds

Energy Infrastructure VulnerabilitiesEnergy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

•Storms and interruptions

•Heatwaves/blackouts/DG

•Cooling water and nuclear power plants24 of 104: H24 of 104: H22O shortages loomO shortages loom

•Melting permafrost and pipelines

•Warming LightningU.S. Lightning-related

Insurance Claims Rise with Temperature: 1990-1995

ratu

re (

F)

70

80

Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature

5-6% increase inair-ground lightning for

g g g

•Montane glacier loss h d

Number of Claims

40

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000

Aver

age

Tem

per

50

60

Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co. claims data (2000).E h b l li h i

0

19911992199319941995

Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co

Each symbol representsa lightning storm event

air ground lightning foreach 1-degree increase inair temperature hydropower

Coal-fired plants



Each symbol represents a lightning storm event.Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.

Stabilization WedgesStabilization Wedges77

Energy Efficiency & Conservation1 Public Transport & Plug-in Hybrids

Natural Sinks9. Forest sequestration1. Public Transport & Plug-in Hybrids

2. ‘Smart grid:’ Distribution, Storage & Use Distribution, Storage & Use 3. Green Buildings4 Health Cities

q

10. Soil sequestration

11. Waste management & CH4 capture4. Healthy Cities

RenewablesFossil Fuel-based

12. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas

5. Wind

6. PV/Solar thermal

13. C Capture & Storage (CCS)

14. H2 Fuel Cells

7. Geothermal

8. Biofuels

15. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS

16. Nuclear fission

One wedge:One wedge:One Yucca Mt q 5One Yucca Mt q 5--10 years10 years



No regrets

Study needed

10 faults lie ithin a 2010 faults lie ithin a 20--mile mile radius of Yucca Mt.radius of Yucca Mt.

USGS 5/21/07USGS 5/21/07

Technologies Warranting LCA StudyTechnologies Warranting LCA Studyg g yg g y

OilOilFormaldehyde & Acetaldehyde O3

Shale oilShale oilLiquid fuelsLiquid fuels

Oil (tar) sandsOil (tar) sands

BiofuelsBiofuels



100 Mt/yr toxic fly ash, bottom ash & scrubber sludge:100 Mt/yr toxic fly ash, bottom ash & scrubber sludge:l dfill & t d C l tl dfill & t d C l tlandfills & wet ponds Cancer clusterslandfills & wet ponds Cancer clusters

Retention pondsRetention ponds


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOLCCSCCS

Carbon Dioxide Capture and StorageCarbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

HumansHumans

VegetationVegetation

LimestoneLimestone

F tF t

AcidificationAcidification

FracturesFractures

--AsAs

--PbPbMicrobial Microbial

communitiescommunities

-IPCC Tech Summary on CCS



1 GtC1 GtC 5,700 M5,700 M22

--E. Rubin. CMUE. Rubin. CMU

Complementary Suite of Measures toComplementary Suite of Measures toSS CCFFScale UpScale Up

TrucksTrucksCarsCars

TrainsTrains

, , FastFast

PHEVs &EVsPHEVs &EVsBusesBuses

ShipsShipsPHEVs &EVsPHEVs &EVsPlanesPlanes

CleanlyCleanly-- HealthyHealthy LightLight railrailyypowered, powered,

smart gridsmart grid

Healthy Healthy CitiesCities

LightLight--railrail

ggCO2

O3, BC



CleanlyCleanly--Powered, Smart GridsPowered, Smart GridsCleanlyCleanly Powered, Smart GridsPowered, Smart Grids

RenewablesRenewables+

N G Cogen PlantCogen PlantRegional

Nat. Gas Cogen PlantCogen Plant

MWMWNWNW

Co-Gen

Dist.Generation Central

Co GenGround source heat Ground source heat pumpspumps A/CA/C

Bat.Bat. SWSW


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL Hydro/Natural GasHydro/Natural Gas

Co-Gen

757500FF

CO d146146ooFF

CO2 dome

O3 BC3

Dark roofDark roofWhite roofWhite roof

Dark roofDark roof



Clean Energy: Adaptation and MitigationClean Energy: Adaptation and MitigationUnderwritingUnderwriting

Di t ib t d G tiDi t ib t d G ti

Distributed DevelopmentDistributed Development

Distributed GenerationDistributed Generation

Distributed DevelopmentDistributed DevelopmentFinanceFinance Swiss ReSwiss Re

Munich ReMunich Re

WaterWaterPurificationPurification

CookingCookingClinicsClinics

PumpingPumpingIrrigationIrrigation

ClinicsClinicsSchoolsSchoolsHomesHomesIrrigationIrrigation

DesalinationDesalinationHomesHomesComputersComputers


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL MDGs: Haines et al. Lancet 2008MDGs: Haines et al. Lancet 2008

Financial and Policy Instrumentsy

Aligning Rewards and Regulations “Carrots”TAXES, SUBSIDIES,

FUNDSPublic Health

Security

Private sectorInvestmentsInsurance

REGULATIONS

EFFICIENCY STDS

INSTITUTIONAL

FRAMEWORK

EconomyRatings

Public sectorIncenti es EFFICIENCY STDS

Climate Stability IncentivesInfrastructureR&D Procurement practices“Sticks”

THE ECONOMIC ENGINE

pSticks

New Energy Plan ENGINE for the

21st CENTURY

TransportUtilitiesBuildings

Corn Coal Nuclear

LobbiesCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


21st CENTURY

http://chge.med.harvard.eduhttp://chge.med.harvard.edu

http://www.climatechangefutures.orghttp://www.climatechangefutures.org



Green BuildingsGreen BuildingsCECE Green BuildingsGreen BuildingsEstimated Savings

GCGC SFSF

Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion

Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion

s ed S v gs

Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billionWorker performance: $20 to $160 billion

St di

20% faster on math testsSchools with natural light

Studies Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

26% faster on reading tests

Stores with natural light: 40% more salesHospitals with better lighting & ventilation:

improved patient outcomesCENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


improved patient outcomes

Emissions Scenarios and Radiative ForcingEmissions Scenarios and Radiative Forcinggg

Scenario Projections diverge ~ 2040Scenario Projections diverge ~ 2040CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


j gj g

Changes in the CryosphereChanges in the CryosphereChanges in the CryosphereChanges in the Cryosphere



Heatwaves: Europe 2003 p

Temperatures 11oF >30year average6 std. dev. from the mean

Deaths: >50,,000 Deaths: >50,,000 ••Crops & livestock: Crops & livestock: pp

US$12.3 billion US$12.3 billion ••Wildfires: Wildfires:

1.2 million acres1.2 million acres••Nuclear plant shutdownsNuclear plant shutdowns••Hydropower reducedHydropower reduced••Alpine glaciers: 10% lostAlpine glaciers: 10% lost



HumanHuman--Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western USInduced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western US

Snow water equivalent or SWE/Precip Oct - March


HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL Barnett et al. 2008Barnett et al. 2008

Processing cassavaProcessing cassava

• Grating • Grating – highly efficient

• Sun dryingSun drying– less labour intensive but not as

effective



Upward Plant MigrationUpward Plant Migration



G hi Shift f Di V tG hi Shift f Di V tGeographic Shifts of Disease VectorsGeographic Shifts of Disease Vectors



DISASTERS AND DISEASE ‘CLUSTERS’DISASTERS AND DISEASE ‘CLUSTERS’

1997/98 El Niño1997/98 El Niño Event Event CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


997/98 N o997/98 N o veve

RodentsRodentsH i f ll i d htH i f ll i d htHeavy rains following droughtsHeavy rains following droughts

New food supplies & floods drive rodents from burrowsNew food supplies & floods drive rodents from burrowspppp

Plague: Malawi/Moz borderPlague: Malawi/Moz border

Emerging Arenaviruses: Zambia/SAEmerging Arenaviruses: Zambia/SA

CCCrop Crop &&

t dt d i li lstoredstored--grain lossesgrain losses



Cassava, Yucca, Manioca, Tapioca, , , p

• Staple food >750 million people– 45% of sub-Sahara Africa

• Cultivation increasing gworldwide

• In Africa– Production tripled between

1980 and 2005



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