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Climate Change Impact to the River Runoff: Regional Study for the Central Asian Region NATALYA AGALTSEVA Research Hydrometeorological institute (NIGMI) Uzbekistan
Climate Change Impact to the River Runoff:
Regional Study for the Central Asian Region
NATALYA AGALTSEVA
Research Hydrometeorologicalinstitute (NIGMI)
Uzbekistan
1. Climate change in Uzbekistan2. The approach to the assessment of climate changes impact on the rivers runoff
on the base of climatic scenarios: problems and solutions3. Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin3. The water resources monitoring
Basic problems
Data of monitoring show:There is a tendency to increasing
of the air temperature and changes of cold and hot year seasons lengths for Central Asia territory;
Climate dryness becomes more severe;
2004 year was the warmest during all period of observation
Change of annual sums of precipitation in Uzbekistan
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1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
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1977
1981
1985
1989
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perc
ent o
f nor
ms
1961
–19
90There are significant variations
of precipitation under their slow tendency to increasing.
The complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place.
Change of mean annual temperature in Uzbekistan
-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.00
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
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1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
∆tClimate change in Uzbekistan
Grid pointsSCENGEN
and reference stations of Uzbekistan.
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
Metodology IPCC :Application of MAGICC: selection of the emission scenarios from IPCC
SRES storylinesApplication of SCENGEN: analysis of model’s uncertainty over the region
and selection of the appropriate GCMsApplication of statistical downscaling method:
Creation of archive in grid points based on observation data (area averaged anomalies are considered as best forecasts of selected GCM).Construction of regression equations between data in grid points and station data.
For construction of regional climate scenarios it is necessary to use GHG
(greenhouse gases) scenarios.
А1(A1B,A1T,A1FI), А2, В1, В2 GHG scenarios are
describing various variants of social and economic
development. А1, А2 – the scenariosdescribing a situation,
when preference to global priorities,
В1, В2 – regional
B1. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
-40
-20
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
UKTRHadCM2GFDL-TRECHAM4CSIRO-TRCGCM1-TR
0
1
2
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6
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
CGCM1-TRCSIRO-TRECHAM4HadCM2CCSR-NIESGFDL-TR
Lat: 42.5 Lon: 62.5
Rise in temperature°С
Change of precipitation, % from norm
Для оценки ожидаемыхизменений месячныхтемператур воздуха иосадков были выбранышесть GCM моделей
Six GCM models had been chosen for an estimation of expected changes of monthly air temperatures and precipitation
Вывод:Усреднение ряда моделейпозволяет уменьшитьнеопределенность сценариевConclusion:Averaging of outputs by a few models allows to reduce uncertainty of scenarios
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
Выводы
•Для проведения оценки воздействия изменения климата в Узбекистане предлагаетсяиспользовать региональные климатические сценарии, построенные в соответствии сосценариями эмиссии А2 (неблагоприятный ) и В2 (умеренный).
На ближнесрочную (2030) и среднесрочную (2050) перспективы различия в ожидаемыхизменениях температуры будут невелики, а к 2080 году возрастут.ConclusionsIt is supposed to use the regional climate scenarios are based upon emission scenarios A2 (unfavorable) and B2 (moderate) to assess climate changes in Uzbekistan.
The air temperature changes will be insignificant for short-term (2030) and middle-short (2050) perspectives but go up by 2080.
The expected air temperature changes by A2, B2 scenarios for Uzbekistan
A2 B2by 2030 about 1.0-1.5 1.6-1.8by 2050 about 2.0-2.6 2.3-2.6by 2080 about 3.9-4.5 3.2-3.6
ТurkmenistanAfganisnan
Tadjikistan
UzbekistanKirghiziya
Kazakhstan
834%
5%
0,03%17%
36%
The river flow is concentrated in thetwo largest transboundary rivers:the Amudarya (78.5 km3 per year)and Syrdarya River (37.1 km3 per
year),which run down from the mountains to
the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the Aral Sea
Sustainable development
needs to have the rational use of the
limited fresh water resources
SNOW COVER FORMATION
Glacialcontribution
Transformationof contributions
to runoff
Melting water andrain
contribution
The degree of the impact the expected climate changes to the river run-off in region can be assessed with help of the
mathematical models of run-off forming
SET OF THE MODELS
Methodical approach to the assessment of climate changes impact to the rivers runoff
W1
W2
Q1.2
E qQпов
повQqq −=~
Q1
Q2
P Qmin
Q
A U T O M A T E DI N F O R M A T I O N A L
S Y S T E M A I S H F
H Y D R O M E T E O R O L O G I C A LI N F O R M A T I O N
D A T A B A S E
S O F T W A R E
M O D E L
P R O C E S S I N G
G R A P H I CI N T E R F A C E
S E R V E RW
IND
OW
S-98
System AISHF
An automated information system of runoff formation has been developed for practical application of the mathematical models of runoff formation
Computation and Forecasting of Runoff
Computation of the Snowmelt and Rain
Contribution
Glaciers? Computation of Glacial Runoff
Yes
No
Model of Transformation
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Мн. Ср. Мл.
ТалоеснеговоеДождевое
Сток следников
The complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place.
Sources of the mountain rivers feeding:a seasonal snow cover melting,historical accumulation of ice and firn in the glaciers, rains are very sensitive to change of climatic parameters
Seasonal snow plays a key role in the feeding of the rivers in the Aral sea basin. Some reduction snow supplies in the basins most of all rivers is observed
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
• Glaciologicalobservations were run in the runoff formation zones since 1957.
•The glaciologicalobservations werepractically stopped during last 10-15 years.
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204
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3031
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35
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Èçì åí åí èå ï ëî ù àäèî ëåäåí åí èÿ, êâ.êì
î ò -155 äî -94î ò -93 äî -28î ò -27 äî 1
Ï ëî ù àäü î ëåäåí åí èÿâ 1980 ã. ,êâ.êì
# 0 - 172# 173 - 486# 487 - 1239
N
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During 1957 – 1980 the Pamir-Alay glaciers lost 113 km3 (19%) of theirwater supplies. The lost raised up to 14% more of supplies by 1957. Glaciers lost will be increased to 10% more of the initial supplies by 2020-25.
Glaciers are the single source of pure water in Central Asia
CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY
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1957 1980 2000 2030 2050 2080
PskemShahimardan SohIsfara
kmkm22
?
?
?
?
Reduction of the glacier area in the separate river basins
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During 1968-98 the Abramovglacier lost 21 meter of water layer and it amounts 18% of its mass.By 2020 году loss of 17% of its ice is expected
Currently only the separate glacial areas are estimated on the base of satellite information
Balance of the Abramov glacier mass in 1977(-161 cm)
Для сценария А2 к 2030 году а бассейнахАмударьи и Сырдарьисущественныхизменений водныхресурсов не ожидается .The significant water resources` changes are not expected by 2030 per A2 scenario.
К 2050 году возможносокращение водныхресурсов по бассейнуреки Амударьи на 10-15%. По бассейну рекиСырдарьи возможносокращение на 2-5%.Water resources decrease up to 10-15% for Amudarya and up to 2-5% for Syrdarya by 2050 is expected
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
2030
Base normОценка водных ресурсов базируется насценариях и моделях, в соответствии скоторыми рассматривается результат
Water resources assessment is based on scenarios and models in accordance with which results are considered.
•Возможно увеличение осадков на равнинах Узбекистана на 5-15%.
Precipitation growth might be made up 5-15 % on the plains of Uzbekistan.•В горных районах изменение осадков более дифференцировано и зависит от
сценария Precipitation changes are more differential and are strictly depended on scenarios for mountainous regions
Общие тенденции изменения осадков:
General tendencies in the precipitation changes:
•Сокращение зоны, где сумма осадков будет
менее 100мм .• Zone reduction where totalized precipitations will be less than 100 mm.• Увеличение зоны, где сумма осадков будет
от 100 - 200мм.• Zone expansion where totalized precipitations will be in 100 -200 mm.
По условиям сценарияB2 к 2030, 2050 годаможидается увеличениеосадков в зонеформированияЭто приводит ксохранениюсовременного стокарек или даже к егоувеличению вбассейнах отдельныхрек.Increase of precipitation in a zone of runoff formation is expected per scenario B2 by 2030, 2050 . It will keep the current run-off as unchanged for most of all river basin or even increase run-off for some particular rivers.
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
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Приток в Чарвакское вдхрПриток в Чарвакское вдхр (нормы)
2030норма
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
Our preliminary calculations have shown:
There is tendency to decreasing of the snow supplies;
Glaciers continue to be reduced with rates of 0,2 % - 1 % one year;
Increase of the evaporation in river basins;
Growth in the variability of the precipitation and intensification of all factors for the years with drought
With the further increase of air temperatures the river runoff decreases.
Rivers of Amu Darya river basin and small rivers are more sensitive to warming climate
It is expected that runoff variability of all basins will go up.
Выводы:Таким образом, ни один из рассмотренных климатических сценариев, отражающих «потепление климата», не предполагает увеличениярасполагаемых водных ресурсов.Ожидаемое повышение испаряемости в условиях потепления увеличитпотери воды в зонах орошения, что потребует дополнительных затратводы.При существующей в настоящее время ситуации в орошаемомземледелии, изменение климата неизбежно приведет к усилению водногодефицита
Conclusion:Thus, none of the considered climatic scenarios of « warming of a climate », does not assume increase in available water resources.Expected increase of evaporation under conditions of climate warming will increase losses of water in the irrigated areas that will increase water demand there.Climate change will increase of water deficit for irrigation needs under current situation in irrigation.
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
Thank you for attention
