OECD-INEA-FAO Workshop on Agriculture and Adaptation to Climate Change
Rome, 23-25 June 2010
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation:
Insights from ABARE research
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation:
Insights from ABARE research
Helal AhammadGeneral Manager
Climate Change & Environment, ABARE
ABARE Key ActivitiesABARE Key Activities
Forecasting/commodity market analysis
Research, briefing & consulting
Farm surveys
Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation
• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation
knowledge space
• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation assessment
• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives
Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation
• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation
knowledge space
• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation
• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives
Known (inconvenient) UncertaintiesKnown (inconvenient) Uncertainties• Climate science
– Radiative forcing– Regional projections– Dynamics: clouds, aerosols, ice, carbon cycle ...
• Climate impacts– Water resources ("big dry" - unlucky variability or new reality?)– Agriculture, ecosystems, urban systems, health ...
• GHG emissions– When and how will mitigation be undertaken?
• Thresholds, bifurcations– Race between growth in population, GDP and ecological outcomes
• Intrusions of chaos into determinism– GFC: what could possibly go wrong (climate, war, ICT collapse,
disease ... …)?
Raupach (2010)
CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture:How much do we really know?CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture:How much do we really know?
1ºC increase in temperature
• 250-310 litre (or 6%) p.a. decline in milk production/cow in Hunter Valley
• 4.2% decline in total factor productivity in wheat production in parts of NSW
• 7.3% decline in total factor productivity in wheat production in parts of WA
CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture(contd.)CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture(contd.)
1-2ºC increase in temperature• 15% decline in pasture productivity• 12% decline in liveweight gain in cattle
3-4ºC increase in temperature• 128% increase in tick related losses in net
cattle production weightBased on case studies & ‘mean’ temperature ΔWhat about impacts of climate variability?What about the role of adaptation to climate change?
Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation
Severity of climate change
Ada
ptat
ion
actio
ns
Adaptivemanagement
Strategic/plannedadaptation
Transformationaladaptation
Adapted from Barlow (2010)
Degree of uncertainties tends to increase with the length of projection periodDegree of uncertainties tends to increase with the length of projection period
Adaptation Options in Agriculture -CroppingAdaptation Options in Agriculture -Cropping• alter crop varieties
– increased resistance to heat, frost, drought, pests and diseases
• alter fertiliser and water application times and amounts
• alter timing and location of cropping activities
• use zero tillage, retain crop residues, change planting patterns, reduce fallow times– enhance water efficiency– reduce soil erosion
• expand water harvesting technologies and conserve soil moisture
Adaptation Options in Agriculture -LivestockAdaptation Options in Agriculture -Livestock• alter forage and animal species or breeds
• adapt annual production cycle to better match feed production
• alter pasture rotations and modify grazing times
• provide supplementary feeding
• change or improve feed concentrates
• provide alternative housing infrastructure, eg increased shading
Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation
• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation
knowledge space
• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation
• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives
ABARE Study 1: Insights into the state of climate modellingABARE Study 1: Insights into the state of climate modelling
Modelling regional impacts of climate change
Uncertainties much greater for rainfall projections by 2030 (SRES A2)
● increase in average rainfall (Darlam125 model)
● decline in average rainfall (Hadcm3 model)
High rainfall scenario change in pasture growth at 2030High rainfall scenario change in pasture growth at 2030
Low rainfall scenariochange in pasture growth at 2030Low rainfall scenariochange in pasture growth at 2030
ABARE Study 2: Insights from regional impact assessment (SRES A1T)ABARE Study 2: Insights from regional impact assessment (SRES A1T)
• soil moisture: the key to climate change impacts– south west is particularly at risk– northern Australia is less affected
• cropping industries are likely to be more adversely affected than livestock industries
• GRP (welfare) impacts of climate change vary across regions
• broad-based regional economies likely to be less impacted by climate change
• Murray-Darling Basin productivity at risk– southern region to experience substantially reduced water inflow
Average change in total factor productivity at 2030, (relative to the reference case)Average change in total factor productivity at 2030, (relative to the reference case)
ABARE’s illustrative scenario analysis• assumed decline in agricultural productivity by
2050 (Cline 2007)– 17% in Australia– up to 25% in other key economies
• assumed decline in overall economic activity by 2050– 5% in developed countries, – 10% in developing countries
• assumed no planned adaptation and mitigation
ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modellingABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling
Climate change – percentage change in total agricultural production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
Climate change – percentage change in total agricultural production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
-15
-10
-5
5Australia China
NewZealand ASEAN Canada USA Argentina Brazil EU25 India
%
20302050
Climate change – percentage change in wheat production, by economyrelative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
Climate change – percentage change in wheat production, by economyrelative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
-15
-10
-5
Australia China India USA Argentina World%
20302050
Climate change – percentage change in beef production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
Climate change – percentage change in beef production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
-20
-15
-10
-5
5Australia
NewZealand USA Argentina Brazil EU-25 World
%
20302050
Climate change – percentage change in dairy production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
Climate change – percentage change in dairy production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)
-20
-15
-10
-5
5
10Australia
NewZealand USA EU-25 World
%
20302050
impacts on Australian production,without mitigation or adaptation
(% change relative to the reference case)
impacts on Australian production,without mitigation or adaptation
(% change relative to the reference case)
-20
-15
-10
-5
wheat beef sheep meat dairy sugar%
20302050
climate change – percentage change in Australian agricultural exports relative to the reference case (no adaptation or mitigation)
climate change – percentage change in Australian agricultural exports relative to the reference case (no adaptation or mitigation)
-80
-60
-40
-20
wheat beef sheep meat dairy sugar%
20302050
• Impacts will vary across economies and sectors
• Understanding global interactions and impacts important, but only a few detailed studies so far
• Need uncertainty analysis, covering climate variability and extreme events
• Need adaptation options/capabilities assessment– Articulate the role of government and industry
ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling (contd.)ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling (contd.)
Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation
• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation
knowledge space
• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation
• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives
Adaptation to Climate Change NeedsAdaptation to Climate Change Needs
• Information transfer
• PPP in research, development & diffusion
• Maintaining critical services to facilitate productivity growth
• Appropriate institutional/market settings
Responding to Climate Change:The right policy settingsResponding to Climate Change:The right policy settings
• Continuing improvement to farm productivity– remove impediments to productivity growth
improve efficiency of farm-specific policiesimprove efficiency of water markets/usagesensure adequate provision of infrastructurecontinuing structural adjustment
Adapting to Climate Change Impacts:Australian Government’s InitiativesAdapting to Climate Change Impacts:Australian Government’s Initiatives• Establishment of CAWCR
– CSIRO and BoM– climate modelling
• CSIRO National Research Flagships [programs]– Climate Adaptation– Sustainable Agriculture
• NCCARF
• Australia’s Farming Future– Climate Change R&D program being administered by DAFF– Climate Change Adaptation
• ABARE– GIAM: A joint initiative with CSIRO– the new/merged bureau in DAFF