Climate Change:Impacts and Responses for Ecological RestorationENV 794April 4, 2011

Ben JurandBehrooz Pakzadeh

Outline

Overview of Climate Change

Impacts and Effects on Species and Ecosystems Ecological Disturbances Phenologies

Implications for Restoration Current Framework Strategies & Approaches

Conclusion and Discussion

Outlines

• Introduction to climate change

• Effect on Hydrology(Precipitation, Snow, ice)

• Climate change consequences on Ecosystems.

What changes climate?

• Change in• Sun’s output• Earth's orbit• Drifting continents• Volcanic eruptions• Greenhouse gases

Climate

•CO2 and other greenhouse gases are at the highest level in the 400,000 years.

•Global Surface temperature has increased over by an estimated 0.74°c over the past century.

•Many plants and animals will not be able to shift ranges to keep pace with warming

Climate change: Consequence on Ecosystem

• Physical Earth

• Life and Death

• Humans

http://www.eoearth.org

Effects on precipitation

Effects: Snow and ice

Consequences: Life and Death

• Biosphere• Ecosystem Disturbance

• Distributions• Diversity• Productivity• Seasonality

• Species Shifts• Genes• Habitat shift• Population

Ecosystem Disturbance: Distributions

Elevational Latitudinal

This images was created by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art

Major Terrestrial Biomes• Geographic distribution of biomes are dependent on temperature,

precipitation, altitude and latitude• Weather patterns dictate the type of plants that will dominate an

ecosystem

faculty.southwest.tn.edu/. ../ES%20%20we16.jpg

Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.

Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

Global Distribution of Vegetation 18,000 years ago

conifers

tundra

taigagrassland

woodland

desert

Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.

Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

Global Distribution of Vegetation 6,000 years ago

taigatemperate deciduous

woods & scrub

conifers

grassland desert

tundra

cold deciduous

Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.

Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

Global Distribution of Vegetation - Present

taiga

tundra

temperate deciduous

grassland

cold deciduous

tropical R.F.

warm mix

Plant distributional changes attributed

• Altitude• Kullman 2001, 2002,

2003 in Bulgaria 1955–1998 Pinus peuce, treeline increased 200 m

Plant distributional changes attributed

• Latitude• Jump et al. 2006 in

Spain 1975–2003 Fagus grandifolia decreased growth at lower elevations

Ecosystem Disturbance: Diversity, Productivity

• Productivity: A reasonable hypothesis is that phenological changes associated with warming will increase ecosystem productivity.

• Diversity: Species extinctions are likely to result from climatic changes.

Phenological Changes and seasonality

Penuelas J and Filella I 2001. Response to a warming world. Science 294: 793 – 795

Phenological change of Syringa in North America

• Schwartz and Reiter in 2000 studied the Syringa and compared it to old existing records in herbarium records from in the 1959

• Syringa is flowering, leafing advanced 5–6 d, due to 1°c

Phenological change of Ginko biloba in Japan

• Japan 1953–2000 Ginkgo biloba bud break & leaf fall budding advanced, leaf fall delayed Matsumoto et al. 2003

Global:45°-75° N

• Global phenological change between1981–1991 in terrestrial ecosystems :leafing spring advanced, autumn delayed, Myneni et al. 1997

• World-wide various numerous taxa most advanced ( a meta-analysis) Root et al. 2003

Phenology is important because…

• it affects whether plants and animals thrive, or survive, in their environment

• …our food supply depends on the timing of phenological events

• …changes in the timing of phenological events can be used as an indicator of climate change

Phenological mismatches• Phenological changes are

particularly troubling when mutualistic relationships are disrupted, such as when a plant is cued by temperature and an animal by day length.

• For instance, the English oak blooms two weeks earlier and moth larvae hatch two weeks earlier to feed on the leaves. The pied flycatcher used to arrive when the larvae hatched to feed on them. Now the larvae population is becoming less when the birds arrive and the bird population is declining as a result.

Applications of phenological observation

Agriculture Providing phenological data as input for crop models, and for the timing of management activities

Biodiversity / Ecology Assessing the impacts of extreme events, species interaction, migration of plant-communities to new zones(e.g. to higher altitude or latitude), mismatch of timinge.g. in food chains or mismatch of climate and species

Natural Resource Management Timing of management activities, resource management under climate change (e.g. locating new reserves, linking of reserves)

Education Involving school children and the public in scientific research by a very cheap and easy accessible means(plants and animals can be observed almost everywhere without any tool apart from keen interest,some knowledge on plant-identification and some basic rules), thus bringing people closer to nature.

Gardening Giving information to the public on planning activities like pest control

Human Health Providing pollen information for sensitive groups, assessing the impact of climate change on vector borne diseases (e.g. ticks, mosquitoes)

Increasing environmental interest Informing the public on environmental issues like climate change and its effects on vegetation

Tourism, Recreation & Sports Giving information on phenomena or events that potentially can interest people (e.g., in Austria, bike tours on cherry-flowering or apricot-flowering are organized, bird watch tours)

Importance of phenology in climate change

• Tool to monitor• Precise quantitative analysis of changes in

phenological time series• A know relationship with temperature and

or precipitation • Analogous change in corresponding

temperature and or precipitation series over time

Phenology monitoring

• Species observations• Cloned plant observations• Web cams• Satellite remote-sensing of ecosystem

production• Atmospheric monitoring of Carbone

dioxide concentration

Satellite Phenology• Advantages 1) Global coverage;

2) Integrated signal

• Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures

Species Shifts: Habitat shift

• Definition: Change in the local environmental conditions in which a particular organism lives.

http://www.esa.org/plantpop/

Species shift: Population

• Snow Lotous, a valuable Tibetan medicinal plant, is threatened by both over-harvest and climate change

http://www.esa.org/plantpop/

Species shift: Population

• A 90-percent decline in sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) off the California coast in just 7 years (1987-1994) has been associated with warming of the California Current, which flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California

Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat

• It is predicted that at the end of this century there will be large scale shifts in the global distribution of vegetation in response to anthropogenic climate change.

• With man doubling the amount of carbon dioxide entering into the atmosphere the climate is changing more rapidly than plant migration can keep up.

Potential distribution of the major world biomes under current climate conditions

Projected distribution of the major world biomes by simulating the effects of 2xCO2-equivalent concentrations www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html

Boreal and Alpine Vegetation

• Research indicates the greatest amount of change will occur at the higher latitudes

• Northern Canada and Alaska are already experiencing rapid warming and reduction of ice cover

• Vegetation existing in these areas will be replaced with temperate forest species

• Tundra, Taiga and Temperate forests will migrate pole ward

• Some plants will face extinction because habitat will become too small (ex. Mountain tops of European Alps)

Predicted changes in Siberian vegetation in response to doubling of CO2

Climate change

www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html

CO2 Emission

2009 Union of Concerned Scientists

Those at Risk • countries (Russia, Sweden, Finland) ½ of existing

terrestrial habitats at risk

• In Mexico, it’s predicted that 2.4% of species will lose 90% of their range and threatened with extinction by the year 2055

• Population at greatest risk are the rare and isolated species with fragmented habitats or those surrounded by water, agriculture or human development

• Polar bears facing extinction by prolonged ice melts in feeding areas along with decline in seal population

Conclusions• Prevention in nature always cheaper and

easier than cure!• Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal• Human-caused warming over last 30 years

has likely had a visible influence on many physical and biological systems

• Conservation thought like( Adaption, Mitigation, Restoration) can slow down the effect of global warming

Restoration Responses

Implications for Restoration

Current Management Practices

The Role of Historical Reference Conditions

Strategies and Approaches to Dealing with Climate Change Adaptation Mitigation

Implications for Restoration

How do we value ecosystems? Emphasis on economic interestsMany are counterproductive to climate and

ecosystem stabilityMust realize: without ecosystem functions,

no economic goods or services would be possible

Threatened ecosystems and species will become increasingly difficult to predict

Implications for Restoration

Dealing with uncertainties Impacts on species and natural resources Sudden, unpredictable changes Large events Inevitable in the next 20-30 years?

Trajectory, inertia of earth’s systems mean that we must adapt to changing climate in the next few decades (Harris et al. 2006)

Management strategies need to identify the specific impacts of climate change on managed species and ecosystems (Hulme 2005)

Implications for Restoration

Anthropogenic stressors interact with climate systems: (Millar et al. 2007)

Pollution Habitat fragmentation Land-use changes Invasive species

(plants, animals, pathogens) Altered fire regimes

National Conservation Framework

“…conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wild life therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.”The National Park Service Organic Act (16 U.S.C. l 2 3, and 4), as set forth herein, consists of the Act of Aug. 25 1916 (39 Stat. 535) and amendments thereto.

Legislation protects habitat types and important species Based on assumptions that the ecosystems

don’t change

Current Management Practices

Ecosystems managed under current conservation schemes may become: More vulnerable Less resilient to disturbances More likely to suffer gene pool degradation More likely to have difficultly with species

regeneration after disturbance Ecosystem fringes

Barriers to new strategies Entrenched interest groups Polarized opinions Time delays in strategy adoption

Current Management Practices

Counterproductive Practices?

Example: fire suppressionSome high altitude forests no

longer retain higher moisture content due to climate change Dryer More vulnerable More likely to burn in fires

Management practices exacerbate the problem

Current Management Practices

Example: forest management (Millar et al. 2007)

Assumption that restoring the structure of a forest to historical reference conditions is the best way to maintain sustainable ecosystems

Restoration efforts often focused on restoring to past conditions

May be more prudent to help ecosystems adapt to changing current and future conditions

Historical Reference Conditions

Use of historical ecosystem conditions as targets and references must be compared to how likely it is that the system will change in the future

Relying solely on historic reference conditions is problematicClimate changes may not support historic

conditionsMay lead to failure of restoration efforts

Example

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in African savannas (Bond & Midgley 2000)

Tree-grass proportions linked to atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Concentrations have changed Applying reference conditions to

restoration efforts problematic Historic tree-grass proportions

not likely to be restored because of change in CO2 concentration

http://www.alaboola.com/lists/african_savannah/

Historical Reference Conditions

But… we disregard history at our own peril (Swetnam et al. 1999)

Crucial to understanding range of variation Historical conditions as a guide, but not

necessarily a prescription Need multiple, comparative histories from multiple

locations

Need to look toward the future as well Why establish wetlands in an area likely to become

semi-arid? Why use a temperate woodland as a reference

condition if area is likely to be flooded by sea level rise?

Strategies and Approaches

Managing in the face of uncertainty (Millar et al. 2007)

Short term strategiesLong term strategiesFocus on enhancing resistance and resilienceAssist in ecosystem adaptation to changes in

climate

Management must understand: (Hulme 2005)

Climate driversHow ecosystems and species respond to

climate and management strategies

Conceptual Framework

Toolbox concept: (Millar et al. 2007)

Various treatments, practices combined to fit unique situations

Strategies vary based on specific spatial and temporal considerations Appropriate levels/scales Models and information sources about future Planning horizons Public support

Conceptual Framework

Deterministic Approaches Reliance on projections about the future for

planning Specific goals intended for the future

Indeterministic Approaches Multiple approaches to minimize risks Unknown directions Goals developed with uncertainty in mind

(Millar et al. 2007)

Response Strategies

Adaptive strategies

Help ecosystems accommodate change

Mitigation strategies

Reducing anthropogenic climate change

Integrated strategies

Adaption + Mitigation

Adaptive Strategies

Adaptive Management

Collection and application of reliable information to improve management over time (Wilhere 2002)

Management policies applied as experimental treatments

Learning from experience

Incorporating lessons into future plans

Iterative process (Millar et al. 2007)

Adaptive Strategies

Adaptive Management Process

1. Identify climate-sensitive system components

2. Assess likelihood and consequences of impacts

3. Identify and select options for adaptation

Adaptive Strategies

Goals for Adaptation

Increase flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems

Enhance species and ecosystem’s inherent adaptability

Reduce trends in environment and social pressures to increase vulnerability to climate variability

Institutional flexibility more effective than rigid, highly structured decision making

Multiple approaches to a given situation

(Hulme 2005)

Adaptive Strategies

Example: Game Species

Species density and abundance changes with to rainfall variablity Greater variation in rainfall

population below carrying capacity Management strategies must adapt to

changing conditions to avoid resource overexploition

Trade-off between harvest size and risk of population collapse

Models can help inform density dependent processes

http://www.wildnatureimages.com/elk%202%20Y.htm

Adaptive Strategies

Example: Sea Level Rise Current management:

enhance existing sea defenses

Problem: salt-marshes Sea walls prevent landward

migration of salt marsh habitat

Adaptive management for ecosystem should include increasing sediment budgets to allow for the establishment of pioneer species

http://www.kennisbank-waterbouw.nl/EC/clm010613.jpg

Adaptive Strategies

Resistance to Change Approach deals with uncertainty Focuses on improving ecosystem defenses

against rapid indirect and direct environmental changes

Best applied to short term Caveat: Resistance may be futile

Climate change may prove catastrophic to a truly resistant ecosystem

Example: Forest Management in North America Reducing effects of

fires, insects, Fire breaks, invasive

species removal Defensive actions at

key migration points to block invasions will build resistance

http://inhabitat.com/files/hot-shots.jpg

Adaptive Strategies

Resilience to change Return to a prior condition after disturbance Focuses on coping with disturbance Treatments similar to resistance but on a

broader scale Best in the short term May include non-standard restoration practices

(Harris et al. 2006)

Wider range of species used (more than local)

Adaptive Strategies

Enable adaptive response to change Intentionally accommodate changeEncourages gradual adaptation and transition Seeks to avoid rapid catastrophic conversion Treatments mimic, assist, or enable ongoing

natural adaptive processes species dispersal and migration population mortality colonization changes in species dominance changing disturbance regimes

Managing species in unsustainable habitats Habitat connectivity facilitates migration Assisted migration

Trans-locate species to approximate habitats Use natural gradients as guides for the intentional

movement of individuals to future habitats Utilize new species mixes, changes in genotype

selections

http://www.swarthmore.edu/Images/academics/student_projects/es_capstone/Drill%20Sites_Habitat%20Fragmentation.jpg

Increase genetic diversity Maintaining local gene pool may not yield

desired results Including other genotypes from other

populations may help populations adapt to climate change

Promote diverse ages, species mixes, structural and genetic diversities helps make a system adaptable to present and future conditions rather than past

Adaptive Strategies

Neo-Native Establishment of historical

species once supported when past conditions matched future projections Example: Monterrey Pine Distribution patterns in

California have changed over time, beginning to reestablish in paleo-historical locations

Remove an invasive? Or establish a neo-native?

Adaptive Strategies

http://frap.cdf.ca.gov/pitch_canker/images/identification/healthy_mont_pine.jpg

Mitigation Strategies

Reduce greenhouse gases Sequester carbon in forests…

Afforestation, reforestation Rapid growth of favored plants Sequestered in wood producs

Reduce emissions Fire and forest mortality increases carbon

emissions Improve resistance in forests to fire, drought,

pests

Integrated Strategies

Prioritized Management FrameworkSpecies have individualistic responses to

changing climatesSome ecosystems may need aggressive

treatments to maintain viability, resistanceReduction of current stressors Policies must address climate change, but allow

for flexible responses to address rapid changes

Conclusion

Restoration efforts should consider: (Hulme 2005)

The current state of the ecosystem Use of dynamic metricsLarge scale interactionsCultural and natural causes of climatic

variabilityMaintaining a balance between rebuilding

past ecosystems and building resilience for the future

Restoring processes, rather than structures

Conclusion

Restoration Questions How involved should we be in managing

ecosystems? How far should we go to facilitate adaptation?

Moving species? How active should we be in determining

ecosystem trajectories in the face of uncertainty?

Can we predict ecological change?

References

Bertin, R. I. (2008). Plant phenology and distribution in relation to recent climate change. The Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society, 135(1), 126-146.

Harris, J. A., Hobbs, R. J., Higgs, E., & Aronson, J. (2006). Ecological restoration and global climate change. Restoration Ecology, 14(2), 170-176.

Hulme, P. E. (2005). Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat? Journal of Applied Ecology, 42(5), 784-794.

Lesica, P., & Allendorf, F. W. (1999). Ecological Genetics and the Restoration of Plant Communities: Mix or Match? Restoration Ecology, 7(1), 42-50

McKenzie, D., Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D. L., & Mote, P. (2004). Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology, 18(4), 890-902.

Millar, C. I., Stephenson, N. L., & Stephens, S. L. (2007). Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17(8), 2145-2151.

Swetnam, T. W., Allen, C. D., & Betancourt, J. L. (1999). Applied historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications, 9(4), 1189-1206.

Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006). Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science, 313(5789), 940

Wilhere, G. F. (2002). Adaptive Management in Habitat Conservation Plans. Conservation Biology. Vol. 16, No. 1.

Questions?