Climate Change impacts and solutions for
India
Sanjay Vashist
Climate Action Network South Asia
Training for Trainers on Environment Audit
iCED, Jaipur
May 2015
Energy budget and greenhouse effect
The delicate balance
between the incoming short
wave (ultra violet) radiation
and the outgoing long wave
(infra red) radiation
maintains earth’s surface
temperature at a level
sufficient to support life on
the planet
Some gases (called greenhouse gases) present in the earth’s
atmosphere (in trace amounts) trap the outgoing radiation, raising
the temperature of the earth’s surface – the phenomenon is
commonly known as greenhouse effect
Causes of climate change
GHG emissions from
• Industrialization
• Urbanization
• Deforestation
• Land use changes
The targets cover emissions of the six main
greenhouse gases:
• Carbon dioxide (CO2);
• Methane (CH4);
• Nitrous oxide (N2O);
• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);
• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and
• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Montreal Protocol
GHGs affected by human activities
CO2 CH4 N2O HFC-23
Pre-industrial
concentration
About 290 ppm About 700 ppb About 270 ppb Zero
Concentration in
1998
365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 14 ppt
Rate of
concentration
change
1.5 ppm/yr 7.0 ppb/yra 0.8 ppb/yr 0.55 ppt/yr
Atmospheric
lifetime
5 to 200 yr 12 yr 114 yr 260 yr
Source: climate change 2001, The Scientific Basis, Technical Summary of the Working
Group/Report 400 ppm in 2014
Science of Climate Change
Highlights of AR 5 (Science)…
Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85 degrees Celsius
since 1880, with the fastest rate of warming in the Arctic.
Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the Arctic Ocean
will be ice free during a greater part of the summer before
2050 under a high emission scenario.
Land based food systems- climate change to affect food
security in areas where most of the world’s food production
occurs.
Temperature rise- average annual temperatures could rise
by more than 2°C over land in most of South Asia by the
mid-21st century and exceed 3°C under a high emissions
scenario.
Highlights of AR 5 (Science)…
Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern areas of Asia
will experience more rainfall. Rainfall will be more
extreme near the centres of tropical cyclones making
landfall in South Asia.
Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by the century’s
end implies increased risks for South Asia’s coastal
settlements particularly if combined with changes in
cyclone frequency or intensity.
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Projected Precipitation change in South Asia…
Impacts of 1-m sea level rise
TERI (1996)
TERI
Gangotri Glacier Receding
April 2008
Imja Glacial lake
Imja Glacial lake
Observed Impacts…
Ecosystems under stress …
Glacial melt with increased threat of GLOF
Agriculture productivity diminishing
Ocean acidification
7600 KMs - Coastal degradation
Increased desertification reducing areas under
cultivation
Migration Income/Economy Livelihoods
Global Goals to address Climate
Change ?
Key impacts as a function of increasing global
average temperature change
Source of GHGs…
Countries Responsible…
23
A viable climate regime must…
Mitigation: emergency climate stabilization Adaptation: inevitable, increasingly urgent While safeguarding a right to development
Global emissions profile…
Estimated at 50.1 GtCO2e per year (range: 45.6–54.6
GtCO2e per year. Median 48.8 GtCO2e)
Required emission levels in 2020 to meet targets are 44
GtCO2e per year
BAU emission levels in 2020 estimated to be 59
GtCO2e per year
Emission reduction pledges and commitments amount
to 3–7 GtCO2e per year.
Still a gap of 8 GtCO2e per year to be committed for 2
degree World
UNEP GAP report
Countries with pledges…
Australia, China, the European Union, India and the
Russian Federation are on track to meet their targets
Canada, Japan, Mexico and the U.S. and perhaps
South Korea are not on track to meet their targets
Not enough information available on Brazil, Indonesia
and South Africa
INDCs submitted by – EU 27, Russia, Mexico, USA,
Canada, Gambia
Greenhouse Development Rights –
to calculate responsibility to ACT !
27
Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a “development threshold”)
Emissions and Responsibility fossil CO2 (since 1990) (showing portion defined as “responsibility”)
28
Population
%
Income
($/capita)
Capacity
%
Responsibility
%
RCI
(obligations)
%
EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7
- EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9
- EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7
Norway 0.07 52,406 0.54 0.26 0.40
United States 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1
China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5
India 17.2 2,818 0.66 0.30 0.48
South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0
LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07
Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 76.9
Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23.1
High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77.4
Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22.4
Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2
World 100% 9,929 100 % 100 % 100 %
29
National obligations based on national “capacity” and “responsibility”
National obligations based on capacity and responsibility
2010 2020 2030
Population
(% of global)
GDP per capita
($US PPP)
Capacity
(% of global)
Responsibility
(% of global)
RCI
(% of
global)
RCI
(% of
global)
RCI
(% of
global)
EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7 22.9 19.6
- EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9 19.9 16.7
- EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0
Switzerland 0.11 39,181 0.60 0.27 0.44 0.37 0.30
United states 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1 29.1 25.5
Japan 1.9 33,422 8.3 7.3 7.8 6.6 5.5
Russia 2.0 15,031 2.7 4.9 3.8 4.3 4.6
China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5 10.4 15.2
India 17.2 2,818 0.66 0.30 0.5 1.2 2.3
South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2
Mexico 1.6 12,408 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5
LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.12
Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 77 69 61
Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23 31 39
High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77 69 61
Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22 30 38
Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5
World 100% 9,929 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Elements to address Climate
Change !
If fail to meet emission targets…
Costs of adaptation will increase
Currently available technologies will not be sufficient
Deployment of technologies to achieve negative
emissions or control solar radiation will be required.
These technologies could have significant
environmental impacts
Issues to be dealt…
Mitigation - Stabilise global average far below 2
degree C
Adaptation to enhance resilience on life supporting
ecosystems and infrastructure
Adequate response to climate induced Loss and
Damage cases
Climate Finance to scale up RE and Adaptation
measures
Technology transfer
Global Policy on Climate Change !
Post 2020…
Work stream 1 : decides that [the ADP] shall plan its
work …, including, inter alia, on mitigation,
adaptation, finance, technology development and
transfer, transparency of action and support, and
capacity-building, drawing upon submissions from
Parties and relevant technical, social and economic
information and expertise – Post 2020
Post 2020…
Must be based on science and equity;
Participation by all Parties is key;
Must be flexible and sensitive to national
circumstances;
Must be environmentally effective;
Must strengthen international rules-based
system;
Must address all elements of paragraph 5 of
1/CP.17 (Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance,
Technology, Transparency of Actions and
Support, Capacity Building)
Pre 2020…
• Work stream 2 : Further decides that the process shall raise the level of ambition and shall be informed, inter alia, by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the outcomes of the 2013– 2015 review and the work of the subsidiary bodies
• Decides to launch a work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition to identify and to explore options for a range of actions that can close the ambition gap with a view to ensuring the highest possible mitigation efforts by all Parties – Pre 2020
INDCs … Countries INDCs Adequacy
Switzerland 50% below 1990 by 2030 Medium
EU 27 at least 40% domestic below 1990 by
2030 Medium
Norway Economy-wide target by at least 40% below 1990 by 2030 Medium
Mexico unconditional target of 22%
greenhouse gas reductions below
baseline in 2030 Medium
USA 26-28% cut from 2005 levels by 2030 Medium
Russia only 6–11% below 1990 Inadequate
China
peaking CO2 emissions in 2030 at the
latest, and increase the share of non-
fossil fuels to 20% of primary energy
demand Medium
Japan emissions reduction target of 20%
below 2013 emission levels by 2030 Inadequate
Source: Climate tracker
India on Climate Change !
However…
Per-capita income at the exchange rate in current dollars in 2008: $1,016
The proportion of the population below a modest poverty line: 27%
300 million individuals living in abject poverty
55 percent of the workforce dependent on agriculture, which contributes less than 18 percent of the GDP
The proportion of households without an electricity connection: 40 percent
400 million individuals without electricity
Water shortages: endemic
The BIG Challenges Facing India
Pull the remaining poor out of abject poverty
Provide humane existence to all Bring electricity and water to all
Give secure shelters that can withstand heat, floods and heavy rains
Move the workforce out of agriculture into industry and services
In other words: Sustain the current rapid growth for another two to three decades
Historic Emissions…
1850-2002 United States: 29.3%
EU-25: 26.5%
Russia: 8.1%
China: 7.6%
Japan: 4.1%
India: 2.2% Source: Baumert, Kevin A; Tim Herzog, Jonathan Pershing (2005-
12). Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy
Sources in India…
NAPCC 8 Missions… Mission Objective Responsible Entity
National Solar Mission
20,000 MW of solar power by 2020
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy
National Mission for
Enhanced Energy Efficiency
10,000 MW of EE savings by 2020
Ministry of Power
National Mission for
Sustainable Habitat
EE in residential and commercial buildings,
public transport, Solid waste management
Ministry of Urban
Development
National Water Mission
Water conservation, river basin
management
Ministry of Water
Resources
National Mission for
Sustaining the Himalayan
Ecosystem
Conservation and adaptation practices,
glacial monitoring
Ministry of Science &
Technology
National Mission for a Green
India
6 mn hectares of afforestation over
degraded
forest lands by the end of 12th Plan
Ministry of Environment &
Forests
National Mission for
Sustainable Agriculture
Drought proofing, risk management,
agricultural research
Ministry of Agriculture
National Mission on
Strategic Knowledge for
Climate Change
Vulnerability assessment, Research &
observation, data management
Ministry of Science &
Technology
Country’s Preparedness…
All States has SAPCC Prepared
Mobilising Climate Finance for Adaptation
Incentives and Subsidies for Renewable Energy
Options
Third National Communications to UNFCCC
Tracking India action…
India @UNFCCC…
Positioned itself in BASIC group (emerging
economies) and also as Like Minded Group
Supports Kyoto Protocol type of architecture
(legally binding and committed)
Demands Equity principles to be basis of Post
2020 Climate deal
But is still to put forth any equity proposal
Committed to work towards Post 2020 deal,
where all countries will be legally binded
Have supported poor developing countries on
Loss and Damage positions
Have prioritised LDCs and Africa for short term
finance of 30 billion
Positioned to achieve relaxation on IPR to
facilitate technology transfer from West to East
Industrialised countries should raise its Ambition
in pre 2020
Public finance to GCF
India @UNFCCC…
SAPCC drafted in most States
Institutionally Ready to directly access International
Climate funds (through NABARD)
Prioritising Adaptation in National Policies
Carbon Tax as ‘Coal Cess’ - Mobilising finance from
domestic sources (17000 Cr by 2014)
8 Missions under implementation
20-25% Energy Reduction targets
Perform – Achieve – Trade Scheme in action
175 GW RE by 2022 (100 GW Solar; 60 GW Wind;
10 GW Hydro and 5 GW Biomass)
Adaptation Fund of 150 Crore
India @Home…
Post 2020, India need to put its new targets on
emission reductions / energy intensity reduction
targets. (INDC)
Role of Private Finance in GCF and domestic
climate finance architecture
Mobilising Climate finance for SAPCC
Draft and negotiate for Equity Framework to
review global pledges in UNFCCC
MRV / ICA architecture for Uni-lateral Mitigation
actions
Homework to be carried out…
India’s INDCs !
Principles… INDCs is an opportunity rather than burden !
Should be able to drive country’s development
agenda forward
Cumulative INDCs should be able to achieve far
below 2 degree C temperature goal
Should be about own responsibility and not others
burden. Thus ‘Equity and CBDR’ need to be the
basis
What ever the mitigation contribution type, INDC
should clearly present GHG reductions achieved by
proposed contributions
Should be able to build ‘Resilience’ of vulnerable
sectors
Operationalising Equity…
• Equitable Shares need to be calculated on –
• Adequacy i.e. 2 degree C temperature goal
• Responsibility – historic and future
• Capacity – GDP, technology and finance
• Adaptation Needs – Vulnerability
• Development Needs
Content of INDC (Adaptation) …
Adaptation Needs – collective responsibility of the
global community
• Countries with greater capability and
responsibility must assist
• National vision on adaptation and climate
resilience
• Analysis of vulnerable sectors: People,
ecosystems, institutions
• Identification of adaptation gaps and needs for
effective implementation of adaptation
• Parties should not table INDCs on adaptation as a
Substitute for mitigation contributions
• ‘Should represent a progression beyond the
current undertaking of that Party’… Lima Call of
Action
• Various estimates
• PBL study – 19% below BAU
• GDR – 6.7% below BAU
• Indian GHG emissions could be in the range of
approximately 4.2 to 4.7 GtCO2e in 2030
• Mitigation contribution could be in either economy
wide or specific sectoral targets, such as, energy
efficiency; solid waste management; RE target;
REDD;
Content of INDC (Mitigation) …
Supported / Unsupported…
Should present two part mitigation contribution
Unsupported - in line with equity and
CBDR&RC
Supported
Should be very ambitious, so that can gain
maximum in terms of self reliance on energy
sources
enables faster decoupling of growth and GHG
emissions
Green Climate Fund: Background Proposed in Copenhagen COP
Established in Cancun 2010
Kitty of 100 Billion
Headquarter in Songdo, South Korea
Governed by Board of balance of developed and developing countries
Disbursement through Direct access and Multi-lateral Organisations
50% for Adaptation and 50% for Mitigation
NDA-NIE-Executing agencies
Objective- Expected to become the primary multilateral channel for large-scale financing both for mitigation and adaptation actions. Objective is to promote the paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change,
Key Design Features in the Governing Instrument
The Fund is accountable to and functions under the guidance of the COP
All developing countries are eligible to receive resources from the Fund.
The Fund will provide simplified and improved access to funding,
including ‘direct access.’ The Board will consider additional modalities
that further enhance direct access and country ownership.
The Fund will have thematic funding windows. Initially the Fund will
have windows for adaptation and mitigation and resources to balanced
across the two.
The Fund will have a private sector facility that enables it to directly and
indirectly finance private sector mitigation and adaptation activities
The Board will develop, manage and oversee an accreditation process
for all implementing entities based on specific accreditation criteria that
reflect the Fund’s fiduciary principles and standards and environmental
and social safeguards.
The Board will develop mechanisms to promote the input and
participation of stakeholders, including private-sector actors, civil society
organizations, vulnerable groups, women and indigenous peoples.
Institutions/Bodies Needed to enable access to
GCF Resources National Designated Authority’ means
an authority designated by a national
government to recommend to the Board
funding proposals in the context of national
climate strategies and plans, including
through consultation processes.
Implementing Entities’ means the
national entities and multilateral
organizations that have been accredited
by the GCF Board as meeting its criteria
for accessing funding in order to
implement eligible activities approved by
the GCF
Executing Entities’ means organizations
that execute eligible activities supported by
the GCF under the oversight of accredited
Implementing or Funding Entities
Capitalised GCF…
Financial Management and integrity
Financial Management and Integrity
Legal Status
Financial Statements and Audit Requirements
Internal Control Framework
Preparation of Business Plans and Budgets
Legal Status
1. Documents providing clear demonstration of legal status
and mandate
a. Provide separate letter confirming legal status if
necessary
2. List of foreign loan/donor funds handled over the last 2
years
3. Clarity or legal opinion that the applicant by virtue of its
enabling legislation has no restriction to do work as a
National Implementing Entity (NIE)
Financial Statements and Audit Requirements
1. Audited Financial Statements of the Entity
2. External Auditor Reports with management comments
and responses
3. Audit Committee's Terms of Reference and agenda
and minutes of meetings
4. Name and brief description of accounting package
used
Financial Statements and Audit Requirements
5. Policy/charter and other published documents (like
manuals) that outline the entity’s internal auditing
function
6. Copies of internal audit plans for last 2 years with
status of audits carried out
7. List of internal audit reports of last 2 years and sample
reports
8. Management response and action taken on internal
audit reports
Internal Control Framework
1. Policy or other published document that outlines the
entity's control framework
2. Procedures describing the payment/ disbursement
system with particular reference to project payments/
disbursements
Internal Control Framework
Objective of an Internal Control Framework
The organization has in place systems for internal
control over operational and financial matters which
provide reasonable assurance to all stakeholders that
transactions within the organization are:
Undertaken in accordance with management policy
and authority
Assets are protected against material loss or
unauthorized acquisition, use or disposition
Contd .. . 2
Internal Control Framework
Objective of an Internal Control Framework
The organization has in place systems for internal
control over operational and financial matters which
provide reasonable assurance to all stakeholders that
transactions within the organization are:
All transactions are properly authorized and
recorded
Environmental and other organizational risks are
systematically and regularly identified
Action to handle the risks is planned, implemented
and reviewed
Internal Control Framework
Demonstration of an effective Internal Control
Framework (ICF) Should include:
Documented organisational structure and division of
responsibility with reference to internal control
Established policies and procedures undertaken in
accordance with management policy and authority
Oversight/audit system that monitors the operation
of the internal control system and reports findings
and recommendations to the top management. This
could be the Audit Committee
Contd … 2
Internal Control Framework
Demonstration of an effective Internal Control
Framework (ICF) must include:
System for top management to ensure that actions
are planned and implemented based on the findings
and recommendations of the oversight system
Annual public statement signed by Chief Executive
Officer describing the ICF and certifying that it
operates satisfactorily
Preparation of Business Plans and Budgets
1. Long Term Strategy/Business plans and/or Financial
Projections for the next 3 to 5 years
2. Annual budgets for the organization or entities within it
3. End of calendar year/fiscal year or periodical budget
vs actual report with analysis of variations for the
Entity’s expenditures
Sanjay Vashist
Climate Action Network South Asia
@sanjayvashist15