Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in WestAfrica
René Gommes1
1FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division
WMO-ECOWAS-ILRI-AfDB-FAO-AEMet-ICRISATInternational Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Changein West African Agriculture, Ouagadougou, 27-30 April
2009
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8019100.stm26 April 2009
Overview
Risk is the "product" of an extreme factor and a vulnerable
system
Globalization of risk
Climate change and increasing climate variability, water
shortages and soil losses place severe limits on food production
(Lester R. Brown, Sci.Am. May 2009)
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Overview: the growing role of agriculture
Risk is the "product" of extreme conditions and a vulnerable
system; risk increases and undergoes globalization
Agriculture is a major player in climate change: as a source of
greenhouse gases and user of water resources; therefore,
agriculture is also an integral component of the solutions
Mitigation is the long-term solution, but adaptation continues
to be needed now
International Multilateral Environmental Agreements must
develop mechanisms that are relevant for smallholders in
semi-arid countries
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Food aid and food prices. A lesson?Source: Hess & Syroka, CRMG/ARD, 2004
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Due to demand, food prices remain highFood prices remain at high levels in many developing countries; February 2009 prices overprevious year: Niger, sorghum +29 % ; Senegal, imported rice +48 %
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Causes of high food pricesSource: Evans, 2008: Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development
Income growth and increasing demand, notably in emerging
economies like China and India, about 50%
Biofuels as a source of demand for grain, about 30%
Climate variability, maybe 10%
Food supply is quite inelastic, i.e. supply responds relatively
slowly to increases in demand
Costs of agricultural inputs � and especially energy � are rising
Speculation, urbanization...
Land and water scarcity and rice and whet yield gaps
Long-term neglect of agricultural investments
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Agriculture is a major player in climate change
Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gases: about 30%
of emissions
Most agricultural GHG are "losses" that can be reduced by
increasing e�ciency of agriculture
Agriculture "manages" about 45% of land biomass and about
90% of e�ective water uses
About 80 GT of soil carbon were lost through degradation
since 1850
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Carbon pools (GtonsC)Williams et al., 2007
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Mitigation potentialGlobal mitigation potential @ 0-20 US$/tCO2
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Mitigation and adaptation
Adaptation measures: water harvesting techniques, warning
systems, crop insurance, micro-climate manipulation, advisory
services to farmers incl. Farm Adaptive Dynamic Optimization,
breeding for higher WUE
Mitigation and adaptation
"careful" biofuel approach (environmental and food securityimpacts)advantages of soil sequestration include: increased soil fertility,optimized used of fertilizer (reduction of emissions), improvedsoil biodiversity, improved soil water storage capacity, i.e. moreregular agricultural outputsoil carbon sequestration through various forms of conservationagriculture: potential is real, but insu�cient data are availableto ¨sell¨ the concept as a post-Kyoto option (see LatinAmerican experience)soil sequestration to be introduced in combination with otherrisk-reducing techniques (Insurance, micro-credit)
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
2008 picture of the year, SwedenEthanol factory in Brazil
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
Opportunities for involving people in C sequestrationApplies to grasslands; Source: Petri, Batello, Villani & Nachtergaele, 2009
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
An option for the post-2012 regimeFAO submission to AWG-LCA3: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/smsn/igo/010.pdf
1 Soil carbon to be recognized as an acceptable sequestration
option
2 Operational issues (e.g. accuracy and cost of carbon mapping)
to be sorted out
3 Governments to design national policies to
1 in general, improve use of weather and climate products byfarmers
2 promote local soil carbon sequestration initiatives in crop- andrange-lands. Practices include conservation tillage, mulching,cover crops, integrated nutrient management including use ofmanure and compost, and agroforestry, as well as improvedmanagement of pastures and rangelands.
3 reduce risk associated with of initial adoption of carbonstorage practices
4 distribute bene�ts to small-holders
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa
To conclude...
CC & increasing climate variability, rising temperatures, water
shortages & soil losses place severe limits on food production.
Food scarcity and resulting higher prices are pushing some
countries into chaos (L.R. Brown, Sci.Am. May 2009)
Need to improve capacity to model and plan the future
Even in the absence of a declared climate crisis (comparable to
the Sahelian droughts), vulnerability of West African countries
has increased due to global factors and internal ones
associated with land use
Adaptation and soil carbon restoration has the potential to
help alleviate the risks by
increasing output & reducing variability of food productiontriggering post-2012 UNFCCC �nancial mechanisms that applyin small and non-forested countriesdeveloping national policies to promote soil carbon storage &reduce risks during the adoption phase of the new policies
René Gommes Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa