Climate Change Implications to Climate Change Implications to the Sierra Nevada and the the Sierra Nevada and the

Central ValleyCentral Valley

Ryan LucasRyan LucasSierra Nevada Research InstituteSierra Nevada Research InstituteUC MercedUC Mercedrlucas@ucmerced.edurlucas@ucmerced.edu

Outline• Greenhouse Effect

• Temperature Forecast

• Impacts– Water/Snowpack– Wildfire– Vegetation– Sea Level

• Summary

Greenhouse Effect

• Increased concentration of greenhouse gasses in the earth’s atmosphere

• CO2 – burning of fossil fuels

• H2O – natural, increase from melting of ice

• N2O – manure breakdown

• CH4 – landfills, manure breakdown

Incoming Solar Radiation

Incoming Solar Radiation Incoming Solar Radiation is absorbed by Earth’s is absorbed by Earth’s surface. Surface emits surface. Surface emits long wave radiation to long wave radiation to atmosphereatmosphere

A fraction of the long wave radiation A fraction of the long wave radiation escapes from the atmosphere; escapes from the atmosphere; greenhouse gases absorb the greenhouse gases absorb the remaining long wave radiation and remaining long wave radiation and emit long wave radiation in all emit long wave radiation in all directions.directions.

Increase of greenhouse gases results in Increase of greenhouse gases results in more long wave radiation absorbed and more long wave radiation absorbed and re-emitted and warmer global surface re-emitted and warmer global surface temperatures.temperatures.

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect

Source: Bales et al 2006

Source: Stewart et al 2005Source: Stewart et al 2005

Water Impacts

• Early onset of spring– Early stream flow– Loss of reservoir and groundwater storage– Loss of hydroelectric generated power

• Large winter storms produce rain– Loss of storage in snow pack– Induction of floods, rain on snow events

• Longer, drier summers– Crop and stock stresses

Wildfires

Source: Westerling 2006Source: Westerling 2006

Source: Westerling et al 2006Source: Westerling et al 2006

Fire Impacts

• More frequent wildfires

• More intense/larger wildfires

• Decrease in Central Valley air quality

• Loss of vegetation

• Loss of wildlife habitat

• Release of CO2 to atmosphere

VegetationVegetation

Source: Linehan et al 2006Source: Linehan et al 2006

Source: Linehan et al 2006Source: Linehan et al 2006

VegetationVegetation

Vegetation Impacts

• Potential migration of plant species

• Potential loss of plant species.

• Migration and/or loss of plant species may lead to migration and/or loss of animal species.

Sea Level• Potential for 1-3 feet sea level rise by the

end of the century (Hanak and Lund 2008)

• Alter salinity, depth, and flood potential in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Impacts to Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley

• Reduction in water supply– Major implications for agricultural and urban communities– Impacts to water cycle affects species habitats (i.e. early spring

stream pulse effects in salmonid fish)– Reduced capacity for hydroelectric power production

• Decreased air quality– Major implications for public health sector

• Changes to “natural” habitats– Major implications on indigenous plant and animal species

• Sea level rise– major effects on Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, plants and

aquatic species

Thank You!Thank You!