CLIMATE CHANGE IS DUE TO OCEAN VARIATIONS – NOT

CO2

William M. GrayDepartment of Atmospheric

Science

July 2014

There is no scientific

justification for the CO2 global warming

hypothesis.

FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE STUDY (1979)

(The Charney Report)

Doubling CO2 will lead to global

∆T of 1.5-4.5°C (~3°C)

Due to positive water-vapor feedback ∆T ∆ moisture reduced global OLR (IR)

∆CO2 RH const.

1°C 2°C = 3°C WARMING

- grossly unrealistic

REALITY

GCMs

IR

0

IR

0

AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP

CONVECTION INCREASE

ENHANCED

SUPPRESSED

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

PR

ESS

UR

E (

mb)

10 0.5 qs

10 2 qs

10 5 qs

10x550

10x220

10x.55

30 x 8

Rain 165

Cb

RH = 75/240 = 31%

Rain Eff. = 165/240 = 69%

75 vapor subsidence

8 qs

Net 240 Condensation

More IR14 -

12 -

11 -

10 -

ALT

ITU

DE (

km)

1/4 1/16

10 km

UPPER TROPOSPHERE

Lapse-Rate

191 198198

Wm-2

water- vapor

water- vapor

T = 243oK

T = 241oKht

ht

241o 243o

24

IR

0.2 g/cm2

191 Wm-2

0.2 g/cm2

IR

DRY

WET

COLD WARM

Wm-2

Temp.

HOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS UPPER MOISTURE CONTROLS THE

EMISSION LEVEL AND IR FLUX TO SPACE

Moist

Dry

MORELESS

0Vertical Motion (ω) GRID SPACE

– ω

– ωωd – ωu

IR = 2

RH = High

IR = 4

RH = 60%RH = 100%

GCM grid ω

Sub-grid up & down

motion concentration

MOIST

DRYER

Δq ΔRH

Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

HANSEN – early model

+ 6%+ 50%

Changes for a doubling of CO2

WAY TOO MUCH VAPOR

Top of Atmos.

Sfc.

2 X CO2 Restriction

Sen. Heat 0.5

Evap. 2.5

IR 0.7

3.7

Equilibrium Response

3.7

Double CO2

= 3.7

3.7 IR

3.7

ΔT = 0.2-0.3°C 3% ↑

342 Solar

342 IR +

Albedo

GCMs

Projected Reality

Net Global Warming

Direct CO2 Warming

∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback

Warming

Net Global Warming

Direct CO2 Warming w/Rainfall

∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative

Feedback

1oC2oC

3oC

0.5oC

-0.2oC

0.3oC

DOUBLING CO2

SURFACE VALUES

DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION

CHANGES FROM SALINITY VARIATIONS

S. Pole N. Pole

Ocean Mean

+3oCCURRENT Poles and

Ocean Cold

mixing mixing

S. Pole N. Pole

CRETACEOUS PERIOD Poles

and Ocean Warm

mixing mixing

Ocean Mean

+17oC

THC (or AMO)

STRONG

THC (or AMO)

WEAK

1 2

3

H

H

Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

SAS SAS

THC

~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25

MOC = -25

~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25

MOC = -35

~~~~~~~~~~Solar +25

MOC = -15

-25

-35

- 15

Mixed Layer Thermocline

Mixed Layer

Mixed Layer

SP NP

SP NP

SP NP

MEAN

∆E = 0

∆E = - 10

∆E = + 10

THC STRONG

THC WEAK

COOLING + More Rain

more upwelling

WARMING - Less Rain less

upwelling

Steady State

1510

15

5

20

10

MORE UPWELLING

COOLING

LESS UPWELLING

COOLING

More Rain

Less Rain

GLOBAL COOLING

GLOBAL WARMING

extrapolated

19981880 1910 1940 1975 2030

Multi-Century

Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century

Multi-Century

TEMPTEMP

0THC

?

mean

neg. ?

Multi-century + decadal

THC+THC+

THC+

THC-THC-

19TH Century 20TH Century

Globe Cooler Globe Warmer

21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996)

FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 25-

30 YEARSWilliam M. Gray(written in 1996)

We expect that these changing Ocean (or MOC) patterns will lead to a small global surface temperature cooling.  The mean global surface temperature change in the next 20-30 years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences

and be one of weak cooling, not warming.

• The Ocean, not CO2 increase is the primary driver for climate change.

• CO2 increases are beneficial.

• Climate research must become free of political domination.

Wm. M. Gray climate change

papers for Heartland

Conferences:ICCC3 – 2009 (NY)ICCC4 – 2010 (NY)

ICCC7 – 2012 (Chicago)ICCC9- 2014 (Las

Vegas)http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/