• Climate change may be triggering rain of rocks in French Alps

• Mystery blob in the Pacific messes up US weather and ecosystems

• War and religion: the metaphors hampering climate change debate

• Dutch government taken to court over climate change

• Soon every summer will be too hot for corals

• Drought prompts 25 per cent water cut in California

• Emissions pledges trickle in for UN climate deal

• Western Canada's glaciers may all but vanish by 2100

• Great Barrier Reef reserves protected fish from cyclone

• Keeping warming to 2 °C is not enough to save species

• NHS game-changers: The rising threat of climate change

One month, one newsfeed, one message:

Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development. {2.3}

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

World's Changing Climate

• The world is ‘path dependent’ on fossil fuels – we are locked in.

• Global agreements to limit carbon emissions are ‘fragile’.

• Even if agreements are made will they be implemented?

• Without letting up on mitigation efforts, it is wise to prepare for change.

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change imply coping with the complexities of human health, water, energy, land use and biodiversity … and a host of other issues.

Start here!

Many people think that governments and the public will

magically change if things only get bad enough.

It seems far more likely that when things get bad enough

governments will declare states of emergency and martial law

and will try to retain control and compete for resources

through any means available.

Transform – Climate Justice, mass collective action through social movements

Three routes forward:

Reform– pushing the process for global agreements

Delink to relink – “Climate Autonomy,” a bottoms up approach, (Transition)

An example of delink to relink

The many events and activities of 2015 will create new communities of interest and hundreds of exciting projects.

It will throw a spotlight on the challenges of how Bristol needs to adapt and change into the future and it will encourage new forms of collaboration and partnership to make this happen. 

The Bristol Green Capital Partnership (BGCP) was instigated by Bristol City Council in 2007 with the aim of creating a platform for organisations to join together to develop the concept and delivery of Bristol as a ‘green’ city.

Now has more than 700 organisation members across all sectors and of all shapes and sizes.

Action Groups established in 2014, one of which is the Resilience Action Group

Bristol has a strong identity as a ‘green and tolerant’ city and celebrates alternative ways of living. Building a resilient city has this fertile culture in which to grow but so far ‘resilience’ is not part of the zeitgeist. Little dialogue occurs about non-disaster type change involving all stakeholders in the city. In times of stress conflict arises and social order is threatened. Recognition of this before events is vital so that different parties appreciate other perspectives in the heat of the moment. 

It’s not just climate change – that’s a symptom and a cause.

We have to address the whole complex of issues as a whole.

Complex Global Issues

TechnologyGenetic engineering, nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnologies, clean technologies, new materials and processes

Globalisation and industryMigration of manufacturing to low wage centres, automation of professional jobs, social media, the Internet of Things and mobile applications, consumer production, virtualisation and dematerialisation

Globalisation and culturePopulation dynamics, migration, militarisation, terrorism, securitisation, geopolitical turmoil, international development, geopolitical change, political ideologies

Consequences of human activityClimate change, water shortages, flooding, species loss, food shortages, marine pollution, fish stock crisis, waste pollution, pesticides … depletion of carrying capacity – hitting planetary boundaries

Systemic failuresEconomic crises, divergence of wealth and growing inequality

P4C started as an idea from a open space meeting of the partnership.

Initially to start a risk register, soon became a vehicle to consider ‘resilience’.

Future is uncertain but likely to see many crises. Bristol is unprepared!

• Adaptability: It is missing opportunities• Exposure: It is not looking out for threats• Vulnerability: It is not protecting it systems• Resilience: It is not strengthening its systems

Bristol is not monitoring well the world or its own systems

The perceived problem

Bristol is just part of a global system that is under multiple stresses

It suffers from short term, myopic views

• Individuals: year ahead planning• Business driven by survival needs and financial targets• Council driven by political time frames• CSOs 'firefighting'

Causes

Bristol is prepared!

Bristol is ready for change by understanding its systemic nature

Bristol is well aware of the global environment:

• Is seeking opportunities for innovation• Is anticipating threats• Is aiding other communities – in its own interests

The objective

• Horizon scanning

• Systems modelling

• Workshops with wide participation

• Prepareness indicators

• Reports and recommendations

Methods

100 Resilient Cities was pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation to catalyze city resilience by:

Partnering with local government, civil society, and private stakeholders,Helping member cities to develop and implement resilience strategies,Elevating the understanding and significance of resilience.

Cities must be able to prepare for, adapt to, and quickly rebound from shocks and stresses.

The resilience of cities is essential to our global vitality

Cities will receive four kinds of support:

1. Strategic Resilience Officer

2. To develop a resilience plan

3. Access to a platform of services

4. Connection to other Network members

Bristol selected as a participating city

Resilience Action Group – informal association to improve resilience in Bristol, with a link to the 100 RCN initiative.

• Emergency planning and preparation

• Awareness – spotlight, arts projects

• Measurement and evaluation (indicators, migration study)

• Business Resilience Circles

• Many ‘bottom up’ initiatives

Workshops

• The Future of Work

• The Future of People

• Future Fortunes (May 6th 2015)

• Community Resilience (Oct 8th & 9th 2015)

Conferences

http://schumacherinstitute.org.uk/prepare-for-climate-change-report

P4C First Special Report

Prepare for Climate Change

Now available

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