The European Commission’s scienceand knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
Climate Change monitoringmitigation and adaptation
- actions by the ECDr. Giovanni De Santi
JRC Director for Sustainable Resources
Outline
1. Tracking progress under the Paris Agreement A. MitigationB. Adaptation
2. Reality check: GHG monitoring and verificationAnthropogenic CO2 monitoring from space under Copernicus
3. Future plans: A. Long-term strategy for GHG reduction by 2050B. City contributionsC. SDG mapping for international cooperation & development
1. Paris Agreement: a landmark agreement
MITIGATION(art. 4-6)
contains a mechanism for
measuring, reporting &
verifying (MRV) emissons
all countries
on board
PARIS AGREEMENT
ADAPTATION(art. 7-8)
does NOT contain yet a
framework to evaluate best
practices, to monitor services
Enhanced Transparency Framework(art. 13-14)
National Inventory Reports + NDCs + Reviews
National Communications + updates + Int. Consult. Analysis
5-yearly Global Stocktake from 2023 onwards
1.A Paris Agreement: Mitigation
Renewable Energy Share
Energy Efficiency
GHG emissions reductionvs 1990
20-20-20 climate
&energy package
2030 climate
&energy package2050 low
carbon econ.
27%
-40%
-27%
32%
32.5%
-80%
1.A Paris Agreement: Mitigation (Italy)
Staff working document DG CLIMA (September 2018): Factsheet Italy
ITALY
EU28
To
tal G
HG
em
issio
ns (
index 1
990 =
100%
)
2017
-18%
Dark = Emission Trading System (large industrial plants)
Light = others (small manufacturing, buildings, transport)
-18%-20%
-40%
2017 2020 2030
1.B Paris Agreement: Adaptation
9477
Paris Earth Adapt
143
CLIMP-ADAPT
222
DRMKCKnowledge for DRM & Adaptation
FAIRNESS:
How to monitor,
report and verify for
terrestrial & marine
Ecosystem-Based
Adaptation
in EU and beyond?
RESILIENCE:
How to protect society
from natural disasters
such as floods, coastal
surges, droughts,
heatwaves,
forest fires, …?
COMPETITIVENESS:
What is the economic impact
of climate change on our society ?
Systemic approach
at JRC
1.B Paris Agreement: Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
Assisted migrations of forest ecosystems
Norway spruce
(Picea abies) RCP 8.5 (2071-2100)
• Sustainability under climate change may have a different meaning.
• End of the century large areas are no longer suited for Norway spruce (red dots)
• By 2070 new areas will become favorable for Norway (green dots)
• Assisted migration of forest is under discussion in several MS.
• What are consequences for local climate, hydrology, biodiversity? What the legal aspects?
End of the century:
RCP 8.5 (2071-2100)
2017/082018/08
1.B Adaptation: New Common Agricultural Policy
Moulins
Agricultural fields
2. Reality check: GHG monitoring & verification
ObservationsSpace-borne
Ground-based
Monitoring progress to policy targets
Data processing & Integration
with data assimilation & models
Renewable Energy Share
Energy Efficiency
GHG emissions reduction
2. Anthropogenic GHG verification
2. Monitored from space
2 Anthropogenic fossil CO2 monitoring Sentinel
Global StockTake 1
Global StockTake 2
using inventories of 2026
Launch target forCopernicus S-7 constellation
system capacity built up
CO2 Task Force & ESA MAG
H2020 Coordination & support Action: CHE
H2020 space callESA support studies
2019 2021 2023 20252017 2027 20292028
MRD #1
operation
H2020 Scientific project: VERIFY
Multilevel governance :
connecting to cities
3.A Future plans: contribution of cities
EU’s Covenant of Mayors, joined with the Compact
of Mayors for the Global Covenant shows success.
The highest reduction: private transportation sector
with a 37.9% drop in the emissions, influenced by
increased bicycle mobility & use of public transport.
Bologna joined the Covenant of Mayors in 2008 &
submitted a Sustainable Energy Action Plan in 2012.
The emission inventory of 2013 showed reduction of
12.4% compared to 2005 (saving 300000 tons CO2).
Transport + buildings system:
> 300 000 tons CO2 saving
3.B Future plans: 2050 GHG reduction strategy
What if ?
for energy policy scenarios
Upward revision of targets under the 2050 Long Term GHG strategy
2018
2012
Energy, transport and GHG
emissions Trends to 2050
2016
2014
3.C Future plans: progress in a sustainable way
ObservationsSpace-borne
Ground-based
Monitoring progress to policy targets
Data processing & Integration
with data assimilation & models
Renewable Energy Share
Energy Efficiency
GHG emissions reduction
Mapping of Sustainable development goals for integrated (multi-sectorial) assessment
Tracking progress towards policy targets
Integrated multi-sectorial analysis
Correlations among sub-indicators of a Goal x
with sub-indicators of each remaining Goal
3.C Assessment with SDG indicators
Interlinkages among the 17 SDGs : Harmonization, aggregation
& visualization of interlinkages established in the literature
3.C SDG monitoring for international development
June 2017
GRAND Renaissance Dam
November 2017
SDG13
SDG15
SDG2
2011 clean water distribution SDG6
Detailed studies ongoing in JRC’s
Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus
2017 hydropower plant SDG7
Conclusion
1. The Paris Agreement is a landmark agreement and increases EU’s effort not only on Mitigation but also Adaptation
2. In addition a transparency framework installs observation-based GHG monitoring and verification capacities for GHGs under under Copernicus
3. EC is establishing A. Long-term strategy for GHG reduction by 2050B. New Common Agricultural Policy
4. SDG mappingIntegrated assessment, e.g. for international development
