Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

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How can National Park Service managers best protect the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of

climate change?

Overall Project Summary Changing climatic conditions are rapidly impacting

environmental, social, and economic conditions in and around National Park System areas in Alaska.

Alaska park managers need to better understand possible climate change trends in order to better manage Arctic, subarctic, and coastal ecosystems and human uses.

NPS and the University of Alaska’s Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (UAF-SNAP) are collaborating on a three-year project that will help Alaska NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and key stakeholders to develop plausible climate change scenarios for all NPS areas in Alaska.

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Forecast Planning One Future

Scenario Planning Multiple Futures

Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future

Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting

+10%-10% Uncertainties

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What we know today

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What we know today

Corporations that derived value from scenarios Shell: pioneered the commercial use of scenarios;

prepared for and navigated the oil crises of the 1970s, and the opening of the Russian market in the 1990s

Morgan Stanley Japan: identified looming problems in Asian financial markets in the late 1990s. Held back on retail investments, and engaged fully with governments and regulators.

UPS: in the late 1990s, used scenarios to identify and explore the powerful forces of globalization and consumer power. As a result, made significant investments (like Mail Boxes Etc) that enabled them to directly reach the end consumer.

Microsoft: Amidst great uncertainty, Microsoft used scenarios (including early indicators) to provide signals as to which platforms/technologies/channels would prevail.

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One corporation that… didn’t

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http://www.economist.com/node/21542796

Eastman Kodak Failure to diversify adequately Did not correctly read emerging markets Acted slowly, waiting for “perfect” products Complacency

Background Information: Climate models and scenarios planning

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Background Information: Reconstruction of summer Arctic temperatures [Kaufman et al., 2009, Science]

Alaska annual temperature anomalies

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index

PDO Index

Background Information: Variability and uncertainty

Monthly temperature projections for Anaktuvuk Pass A1B (mid-range) scenario)

Background Information: SNAP data

Projected monthly precipitation for Anaktuvuk Pass

Background Information: SNAP data

Mean annual soil temp. (2 m depth)

2000-2009

2050-2059

Background Information: Simulated annual burn area in Alaska (ALFRESCO)

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

020000

40000

60000

80000

Year

cells b

urn

AreaBurn/Year: Replicate 43

Simulated AB/YearHistorical AB/YearBackCast

ECHAM5

Climate Change in Alaska: the bottom line

Change is happening, and will continue for decades regardless of mitigation efforts.

Key tipping points may be crossed, e.g fire, permafrost, sea ice, biome shift, glacial loss.

High uncertainty results in divergent possible futures for many important variables.

www.nenananewslink.com

alaskarenewableenergy.org

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Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process

What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them?

What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?

What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?

How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories?

As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions?

This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process

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Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Step one: OrientWhat is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?

How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within which management units are placed over the next 50 to 100 years?

How can NPS managers best preserve (protect?) the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?

To answer this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:

Gates of the Arctic National Parkphoto credits: Tom Moran, Jay Cable, Amy Marsh

Step Two: ExploreWhat critical forces (drivers) will affect the future of our issue?

Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — ConfidentialERT-HLY 2010 1

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ______________

Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?

Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty

We are aiming to create scenarios that are:

Challenging

Divergent

Plausible

Relevant16

Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Climate Change Scenario Drivers TEMPERATURE AND LINKED VARIABLES:

thaw, freeze, season length, extreme days, permafrost, ice, freshwater temperature

PRECIPITATION AND LINKED VARIABLES:rain, snow, water availability, storms and flooding, humidity

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO):definition, effects, and predictability

SEA LEVEL:erosion also linked to sea ice and storms

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

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Driver 1

Dri

ver

2

Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures

1

2

4

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CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________

CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________

Avoid pairs of drivers that are too similar – think of the effects of crossing them with one another

Choose drivers that lead to the effects that are most critical

Pick drivers with a wide range of possible outcomes

Choose drivers that impact several sectors, e.g tourism, subsistence, and wildlife, not just one

Select drivers with effects in most of the parks in the network

Select drivers with a high enough likelihood to be convincing to stakeholders

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Keep in mind….Scenario planning involves synthesizing results to create a small number of alternative stories

• Sixteen (or more) choices available (4x4)• Need to select only 3-4 to turn into narratives and planning tools • Focus on scenarios that are:

Challenging Divergent Relevant Plausible

• Create a narrative (story) about each scenario

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Keep in mind…Name Species Hair/Fur Age Appetite

Level Size Preliminary

Porridge Assessment

Preliminary Mattress

Assessment

Goldilocks Human Blonde 8 Moderate Petite N/A N/A

Papa Bear Brown 12 High Big Too Hot Too Hard

Mama Bear Tawny 11 Moderate Medium Too Cold Too Soft

Baby Bear Red-Brown 3 Low Small Just Right Just Right

Effective storytelling matters!21

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Arctic Park UnitsClimate Variable

Projected Change by 2050

Projected Change by 2100

Patterns of Change

Confidence Source

Temperature +2.5°C ±1.5°C +5°C ±2°CMore pronounced

in N and autumn-winter

>95% for increase

IPCC (2007); SNAP/UAF

Precipitation (rain and snow)

Winter snowfallAutumn rain and

snow

Winter snowfallAutumn rain and

snow

Increased % falls as rain in shoulder

seasons

High uncertainty in timing of

snow onset and melt

AMAP/SWIPA; SNAP/UAF

Freeze-up Date 5-10 days later 10-20 days laterLargest change

near coast>90% SNAP/UAF

Length of Ice-free Season (rivers, lakes)

↑ 7-10 days ↑ 14-21 daysLargest change

near coast>90% IPCC (2007);

SNAP/UAF

Length of Growing Season

↑ 10–20 days ↑ 20–40 daysLargest change

near coast>90% IPCC (2007);

SNAP/UAF

River and Stream Temps

↑ 1–3°C ↑ 2–4°CEarlier breakup, higher summer

temps>90% Kyle & Brabets

(2001)

Water Availability ↓ 0–20% ↓ 10–40%Longer summer,

thicker active layer>66%

varies by region

SNAP/UAF; Wilderness Society

Relative Humidity 0% ±10% ↑ or ↓ 0% ±15% ↑ or ↓Absolute humidity

increases50%

as likely as notSNAP/UAF

Wind Speed ↑ 2–4% ↑ 4–8%More pronounced in winter & spring

>90% for increase

Abatzoglou & Brown

PDO Uncertain UncertainMajor effect on Alaska temps in

cold season

High degree ofnatural variation

Hartmann & Wendler (2005)

Extreme Events: Temperature

3-6x more warm events;

3-5x fewer cold events

5-8x more warm events;

8-12x fewer cold events

↑ warm events, ↓ cold events

>95% likelyAbatzoglou & Brown; Timlin & Walsh (2007)

Extreme Events: Precipitation

Change of –20% to +50%

Change of –20% to +50%

↑ winter↓ spring

Uncertain Abatzoglou & Brown

Extreme Events: Storms

↑ frequency/intensity ↑ frequency/intensity Increase >66% Loehman (2011)

Climate EffectsClimate effects are the outcomes of the critical forces or drivers, as expressed by significant changes in particular parks.

Points to consider include: Time frame (20 years? 100 years?) Uncertainty (of both driver and effect) Severity of effect (and reversibility) Scope: what parks, who is impacted? Repercussions: what is the story? Feedback to policy

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Sector Subsector Potential Effects to Resources, Operations, and PeopleGreenhouse gases

Increased carbon storage where forests spread; decreased where drought causes loss of forest or where fire and permafrost release methane and CO2.

Shrub expansion into deglaciated areas and new vegetation = carbon sequestration

Air temperature increases ~1°F per decade; greatest change in the north and in winter.

Average spring/fall temps shift from below freezing to above freezing, changing freeze/thaw balance.

Precipitation Average annual precipitation increases. Relative amounts of snow, ice or rain change.

Many areas experience drying conditions despite increased precipitation.

More freezing rain events affect foraging success for wildlife, travel safety, etc.

Avalanche hazards increase with rising precipitation and rising winter temps.

Storms Lightning and lightning-ignited fires continue to increase.

Storm and wave impacts increase in northern Alaska where land-fast sea ice forms later.

Air quality More smoke from longer and more intense fire seasons.

Contaminants Increased contaminants and shifting contaminant distribution.

Snow/ice Later onset of freeze-up and snowfall + earlier spring snowmelt and break-up.

Arctic snow cover declines with higher air temperatures and earlier spring thaw.

Lack of snow cover leads to deeper freezing of water in the ground or rivers.

Cultural resources are exposed as snow and ice patches melt and recede.

Glaciers Most glaciers diminish as warming continues, though a few are still advancing.

Glacial outwash affects aquatic productivity and forms deposits in shallow water.

Glacial lakes fail more frequently, creating risk of flash floods and debris flows.

Surging glaciers could block rivers and fjords, resulting in severe flooding.

Ice roads Reduced winter transportation affects opportunities for travel and subsistence.

Permafrost Mercury & other pollutants are released into aquatic environments as permafrost thaws.

Freshwater Stream flows from melting glaciers increase and then decrease over time.

Ponds shrink as ground ice thaws or thermokarst drainage occurs in permafrost areas.

Drainage from thawing waste and sewage dumps contaminates rural water supplies.

Groundwater Groundwater supplies dependent on seasonal glacial recharge become less predictable.

More roads and infrastructure fail or require repairs due to permafrost thaw.

Landslides and mud flows increase on steep slopes. Rapid glacial retreat and permafrost thaw leave steep and unstable slopes in valleys and fjords. Burials and other remains are exposed as cultural sites thaw and erode.

Soil Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, thawing permafrost, and drainage.

Air Temperature

ATM

OSP

HER

EC

RYO

SPH

ERE

HYD

RO

SPH

ERE

Ground stability

LITH

OSP

HER

E

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General Ecological "tipping points" are l ikely to result in rapid change, when conditions exceed physical or physiological thresholds (e.g., thaw, drought, water temperature)

Vegetation Ecological "tipping points" are l ikely to result in rapid change, when conditions exceed physical or physiological thresholds (e.g., thaw, drought, water temperature)Increased agricultural production in Alaska because of longer growing season.

Potential large-scale shift of tundra to shrubs, to conifers, to deciduous forests or grass.

Atypical outbreaks of pests and diseases affect native species and increase fire hazards.

Invasive exotic plant species and native species from other areas expand their ranges.

Vegetation expands into deglaciated coastal areas, less into higher elevation areas.

Tree species and vegetation classes shift as species of lower latitudes and altitudes expand.

Forests Black spruce may expand with warming – or contract as permafrost soils thaw and fires increase.

Mature forests and “old growth” decline because of drought, insects, disease, and fire.

Fire Models show a warmer climate leads to larger, more frequent and intense fires.

Wildland fire hazards increase, affecting communities and isolated property owners.

Fire-related landcover and soil changes result in vegetation shifts, permafrost thaw, etc.

WildlifeChanges to terrestrial and aquatic species occur as ranges shift, contract, or expand, affecting visitor experience and subsistence throughout the parks.

Parks and refuges may not be able to protect current species within their boundaries.

Some species will suffer severe loses. So far, the greatest losses across all parks have been rodents, bats, and carnivores.

Predator-prey relationships may change in unexpected ways.

Migratory routes and destinations will change (e.g., wetlands, open tundra, snow patches).

Birds Arctic and alpine birds’ breeding habitats reduced as trees and shrubs encroach on tundra.

Geese could lose almost half of their breeding habitat due to change from tundra to taiga and boreal forest. Predation on ground nesting birds could increase if prey (lemming) abundance declines.

Population cycles of birds and their prey could be out of sync due to higher temperatures.

Caribou and reindeer health are affected by changes in weather, forage, and insects and pests.

Earlier green-up could improve caribou calf survival because of more available forage.

Caribou may suffer heavy losses if rain events prevent successful feeding during cold weather.

Moose Shifts in forests could mean less habitat for caribou, but more habitat for moose.

Climate change could hinder moose calf birth success and moose calf survival.

Small Mammals Fire may create new burrowing habitat and forage growth to help vole populations.

Less snow cover reduces survival of subnivian species, due to increased predation & cold stress.

Fisheries New stream habitats become available for fish and wildlife as glaciers decline.

Some salmon waters may become unsuitable for migration, spawning and incubation.Fish diseases increase with rising stream temperatures.Fish habitats in permafrost areas are degraded by slumps and sediment input into rivers.

Invertebrates Ice worm populations decline locally as glacier habitats melt.Exotic pests expand from warmer areas, and endemic pests expand as host species are stressed.

Subsistence Altered animal migration patterns make subsistence hunting more challenging.Sea ice changes make hunting for marine mammals less predictable & more dangerous.Managing new species and intensified management of native species may be needed.

Tourism Longer summer seasons increase tourism. Some visitor activities increase, others decline.Landscape-level changes affect visitor experiences and access, visitor use patterns shift.

Wilderness Large-scale physical and biological changes across broad landscapes affect abundance and condition of wilderness-associated resources (e.g., glaciers, wildlife, access routes, ..)Changing biophysical landscape affect key wilderness values such as naturalness, wild-untamed areas wtihout permanent opportunities for solitude, etc.TEK Uses of traditional ecological knowledge become less predictive and less reliable.

Devpmt More natural resource development in Alaska with increasing global demand.

Fuel and energy prices increase substantially with carbon mitigation measures. Transporting fuels to remote locations becomes more challenging and costly.

OT

HE

R

Caribou/ Reindeer

BIO

SP

HE

RE

- v

eg

eta

tio

n a

nd

fire

BIO

SP

HE

RE

- w

ild

life

Western Arctic case study

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Mean summer season length. These maps show the projected number of days between the date on which the running mean temperature crosses the freezing point in the spring, and date on which when that point is crossed again in the fall. The above-freezing season is likely to be up to 40 days longer by the end of this century.

Ranking of scenario driversBering Land Bridge

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Climate variable/driver Uncertainty Importance Votes

Temperature M H 4

Precipitation M H

Relative Humidity M L

Length of growing season M M-H 3

Ocean acidification H H 1

Sea ice extent (decline) M H 7

Extreme weather events (severity and frequency)

H H 4

Coastal permafrost degradation H H 3

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) H H 1

Sea level rise L H 3

Change in hydrologic regime H M-H 2

Length of ice-free season M H

Freeze-up date M-H H

Wind pattern shifts L M

Snowpack M H 2

Fire M-H M

Interior permafrost degradation M H

L, M, H = low, medium, high. Votes reflect how many group members selected each driver, given three votes per person. The highlighted drivers were selected for the BELA scenarios.

For the purposes of scenario planning, the goal was to select two drivers with high importance (in order to maximize the relevance of resulting scenarios) and high uncertainty (in order to maximize divergence).

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”Hotwash”

B“Overrun”

A

“Contemporary Change”

C

“Stormy Weather”

D

Temperature

+5°C/8°C by 2050/2100

Increased severity, frequency

Current severity, frequency

+1°C/2°C by 2050/2100

Extreme Precipitation and Storm Events

Each quadrant represents a different combination of potential future temperature and extreme precipitation and storm events

Primary matrix of drivers, BELA group

The “Hotwash” scenario envisions a much warmer and much stormier future, as compared to the early 21st century. Potential effects of such conditions include: More coastal erosion Increased rain on snow events Increased travel danger Increased sedimentation and river

erosion Decrease in marine mammals Migratory birds change Large scale losses of archaeological

resources Increased fire More shrub expansion and lichen loss Decreased winter caribou range Infrastructure and habitat loss even

more severe than other quadrants due to permafrost loss

Increased risk of village relocation/destruction

Boreal forest expansion, moves in to tundra areas

Infrastructure and habitat loss due to permafrost loss

Increased risk of village relocation/destruction

Boreal forest expansion Ocean development, ocean travel and

tourism, oil and gas, mining, fisheries leading to increased risk for subsistence users (but also more employment). Less tourism development due to storms.

Increased risk of oil spills and associated losses of fish, wildlife, habitat, and ecosystem services

Marine noise and disturbance affect subsistence

Loss of arctic endemic species, e.g. musk ox, tundra hares

Aquatic invasive species Increased disease and insects Possible reduction in freight costs 31

Scenarios nested in a sociopolitical framework

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The two nested scenarios selected by the BELA group are marked by blue stars.

Participants examined possible futures in a sociopolitical framework that incorporated a wide range of societal concern and institutional support.

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Cultural ResourcesMassive loss of archaeological sites due to erosion, irretrievable loss of cultural history and possible compromise of park mandate

Facilities/ InfrastructurePotentially greater need to accommodate cruise ships and road travel, but no funding and large erosion problems

Social/Economic/Subsistence• Decreased subsistence harvests• Health impacts with loss of important sources of

nutrition • Loss of important social roles• Increased costs of living due to substitution of

expensive imported food • Huge increase in social problems associated with

relocation of village residents• Community evacuation leads to dispersion to

cities and other communities• Dispersion (diaspora) causes breakdown of

sharing networks, cultural socialization, traditional roles

• Institutional help and protections against damage to communities is missing, leading to more rapid erosion, destruction

• Dissolution of community from storm surges may lead to a loss of traditional ways of life

• Damage to community infrastructure may lead to a rise in the cost of living

Natural Resources• Loss of biodiversity through decreased

ice and heating of riverine systems; loss of marine mammal species; loss of subsistence fish.

• Sea level rise may exacerbate damage from storm surges

• Sea ice season recedes and is limited to about one month/year, limiting ability to hunt on ice and exacerbating erosion

• Changing migration patterns could result in inappropriate harvest seasons, methods and take/limits

• Erosion of landing sites; impact to delivery of bulk cargo (e.g. fuel); rising cost of living

• Storms will have been hammering the coast for several decades, causing massive erosion and communities washing away

• Shrubs and forest encroaching leading to more moose and beaver

Inland permafrost degradation leading to damaged roads, new developable thawed lands

Communication• Less funding for interpretation and no

strong forums for discussion due to community losses and funding cuts

• Great needs for communities near the park to communicate needs and get help

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The Sign (a short skit set several decades into the future)

A family is on a beach that used to be part of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve. The family is hunting for sea lions. The hunters have gone up to the haul-out. As they wait for the hunters to return, a young woman picks up an old faded sign with only a couple of letters left on it. “I wonder what this was?” she says to her grandmother. “Anyhow, it would make a good table. There’s plenty of other driftwood for the fire.”

The grandmother says, “Oh, that’s the old park service sign.” The young woman sets up the old sign as a table.The old woman says, “I’m so glad my nephew came to hunt with us. It’s been almost a year now since we lost his

brother. That was so hard for him, and for all of us. His father was such a good provider, until he moved to Nome. The family kind of fell apart then, when the village was evacuated. That was really a shame. The storms got so bad, and we just couldn’t get any help, not even rocks. There was no clean water anymore either. Folks were getting sick. Things got really bad. Even before the big storm, the village was cut off when the flooding washed out all the roads.”

As they make the fire, the young woman says, “I sure hope the hunters get lucky. It’s too bad our cousin in Nome didn’t have the opportunity to harvest sea lions. He sure would have had fun, and he’d like the meat. I miss the taste of walrus, though, from when I was little.”

The grandmother says, “Your cousin sure had a hard time in high school. I regret that he didn’t have the chance to learn the traditional skills his father had.”

Her granddaughter nods. “And he could have done a lot of moose hunting, now that there’s enough for everyone – but not this time of year, though, when they’re getting so buggy from this heat.”

The hunters return, triumphant, and are greeted and congratulated.Later, as they sit and eat sea lion around the old park sign, they discuss past hunts.An older man says, “It’s kind of scary these days, trying to get across rivers when the ice is so thin, even in the

middle of winter.”“It’s hard to get around,” agrees another. “And I miss being able to go out on the ice to fish.”“That doesn’t worry me as much as those cruise ships. Seems like they don’t pay attention to small boats, and they

make so much noise, and pollute the water. Sure doesn’t help the hunters.”“I think the oil rigs are the worst. They say they’re not spilling anything, but I’ve seen slicks on the water.”“Well, the government sure isn’t going to do anything about it.”“We’ll just have to do the best we can with what’s left.”They all fall silent and enjoy their meat.As the meal ends, they toss the old sign onto the fire. The last letters of “Bering Land Bridge National Preserve” turn black and disappear.

Implications common to all scenarios

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Natural Resource

Implications

Loss of biodiversity of unique arctic species

Shifting species

Expansion of invasive species

Habitat transformation (land, sea and freshwater)

Changes to disturbance regimes

Increased contamination/pollution of water and land

Cultural Resource

Implications Loss of archaeological and paleontological sites and associated history

Facilities/ Infrastructure Implications

Pollution from new development and tourism is already occurring

Risks to roads, communities, airstrips, telecommunication infrastructure

Threats to park facilities, vulnerable infrastructure

Demand for new infrastructure for industry and tourism

Communication/ Education & Interpretation Implications

Need for effective collaborative communication across agencies and communities

Increased need to capture traditional ecological knowledge (TEK)

Need for more consistent messages coming to/from parks

Social/ Economic/

Subsistence Implications

Subsistence patterns are changing

Depletion of marine mammals and increasing pressure on terrestrial wildlife. This could in turn lead to conflict between terrestrial wildlife users.

Loss of cultural traditions and norms

Pressure for more flexible regulations

Pressure for more industry and tourism

Lake KuzitrinPhoto by NPS - Jennifer Thelen

BELA Photo by NPS

Management actions common to all scenarios

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Management Actions

Revisit park mandates

Improve interagency collaboration and planning

Improve integration of TEK into science, planning and management

Increased flexibility in management, direction and principles

Long-range adaptive planning to conserve limited funds

Develop good outreach tools for diverse audiences

Find and cultivate partners for funding

Research and Information

Needs

Develop research proposals for projects that address research needs identified through CCSP

Create and maintain coordinated seamless data collection and sharing

Robust I &M program focused on critical resources and habitat

Identify creative strategies to work across interdisciplinary boundaries

Encourage interdisciplinary coordination with feedback loops and partnering

Data recovery of archaeological/paleontological sites

Photo by NPS

Testing and recording an archeological feature atop a beach ridge UW/NPS