First WEPA Workshop :- Theme 2:Climate Change Impacts To The Water Environment And Adaptation Options
CLIMATE CHANGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES
AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN MALAYSIA
ZUBAIDI JOHARNational Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM)
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (NRE), MALAYSIA
OUTLINE
• Introduction • Climate Change Impacts Study – Projection Model • Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Malaysian
Water Resources• Assessing Vulnerability and Strategies of Adaptation
1. INTRODUCTION
• Initial National Communication (2000) recommended the need for a Regional Model for finer resolution of global climate simulations.
• Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050.
• IPCC, Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• Significant climate change impacts are now unavoidable.
Observed Climate Change
GLOBAL* MALAYSIA**
1906-2005 1968-2002
Surface temperature
(ºC)
0.74 0.49 – 0.91
1961-2003 1993-2003 1986-2006
Sea level rise (mm/yr)
1.8 3.1 1.25
* IPCC 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007** INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION, 2000** NATIONAL COASTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX STUDY,DID, 2007
Up stream
Irrigation
down stream
STORMS WATER
Tmn Sri Muda, ShahAlam, Dec1995Floods Magnitude
Kuching 2003
Kuala Lumpur, 2005
Pet. Jaya, 2000
Shah Alam 2006
Sibu, Sarawak, Feb 2009
Droughts
The IPCC has started work on the preparation of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Malaysia is preparing her Second National Communication (NC2) under the UNFCCC to further integrate climate change issues and impacts into the national and local strategic and development plans.
3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: WG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) InventoryWG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) WG 3 - Mitigation
Working Group 2 (WG2) Findings from AR4 Expectations for AR5:-water resources sub-sector Strategies of Adaptation
• A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed
• Downscaling global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km).
• Able to quantify the impact of the complex topographical and land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climate conditions.
2. NAHRIMs Climate Change Study
Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.
MM5 (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model) from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)non-hydrostatic model can be downscaled even to 0.5km spatial resolutionable to capture the impact of steep topography of Peninsular Malaysia at watershed scale ( spatial resolutions <10km) on the local climatic conditions
Model ComponentsAtmospheric Model (MM5)
Model ComponentsLand Hydrologic Model
The land hydrology component of RegHCM-PM is Integrated Regional Scale Hydrologic-Atmospheric Model (IRSHAM) that categorized as fully physically-based regional land surface hydrology model
Climate Change ProjectionGLOBAL* MALAYSIA**
2050 2100 2050
Surface temperature (ºC)
(Emission Scenario SRES*** A1B)
1.6 2.8 1.5
Sea level rise (m)(Emission Scenario
SRES*** A1B)
0.21-0.48 -
Annual Rainfall (mm) +10% (Kelantan, Terengganu &Pahang)-5% (Selangor & Johor)
* IPCC WG1 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007** STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC REGIME AND
WATER RESOURCES OF P MALAYSIA, NAHRIM, 2006*** SRES = Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Locations of rain gauges and weather station at which the temperature data were used for validation
Example of the model simulation outputTable 1: Summary of Monthly Flows
River Klang Selangor DungunTerengganu
Kelan-tan Pahang Perak Muda Johor
Maximum MonthlyFlows(cms)
Historical 31.2 107.9 398.4 1535.1 1697.4 523.7 307.4 82.7
Future 45.8 108.5 569.5 1950.7 2176.6 578.2 340.0 94.0
Diff. +14.6 +0.6 +171.1 +415.6 +479.2 +54.5 +32.6 +11.3
(%) +46.8 +0.6 +42.9 +27.1 +28.2 +10.4 +10.6 +13.7
Mean Monthly Flows(cms)
Historical 14.4 40.7 93.4 535.9 669.6 286.4 105.6 32.7
Future 13.3 37.5 98.3 601.7 718.1 299.7 104.0 31.8
Diff. -1.1 -3.2 +4.9 +65.8 +48.5 +13.3 -1.6 -0.9
(%) -7.6 -7.9 +5.2 +12.3 +7.2 +4.6 -1.5 -2.8
Historical 2.6 7.1 13.1 158.4 156.3 183.6 25.3 9.8
MaximumFlow
Minimum Flow
Legend
NSelected SubSelected Sub--regions in Peninsular Malaysiaregions in Peninsular Malaysia
based on Riverbased on River--basinbasin
Figure 1 : Observed monthly mean flow and simulated monthly mean flow at J Guillemard Kelantan
Locations of the selected stream gauging stations and watersheds
Validation of Simulated Streamflowwith Observed Streamflow
Figure 2: Simulated Monthly River Flow Periodic Means and Standard Deviations
BACK
Example of the study results : River Flow
• Table 1 is a summary of simulated monthly flows during the historical and future periods at the selected Peninsular Malaysia watershed.
• An increase in interannual and intraseasonalvariability with increased hydrologic extremes are expected in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu andPerak.
• Increase in maximum monthly flows from 11% to 47% for all over Peninsular Malaysia
• Decrease in minimum monthly flows from 31% to 93% for Johor and Selangor.
RegHCM-SS : A regional hydrologic/atmospherichydroclimate model of Sabah and Sarawak (East Malaysia region) is under development stage.
To study the impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Sabah and Sarawak
Monthly green fraction [unit: %] forRegHCM-SSM’s inner domain grids.
Domain nesting of RegHCM for Sabah & Sarawak, Malaysia and its surrounding areas. An inner domain is nested within the center of the outer domain.
NAHRIM FUTURE HYDROCLIMATE DATABASE
• How to access? - log on to http://www.futurehydroclimate.nahrim.gov.my/and register.
• 5 main modules/parameters:– Precipitation– Evapotranspiration– Soil Water Storage– Surface Temperature– Streamflow
3. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Malaysian Water Resources (Irrigation and Water Supply)
Indicator Impacts
Extreme droughts Disrupt supply services especially in urban areas
More severe floods in flood prone
Floods in some areas not normally flooded under the present climate
Higher rainfall intensity More severe and frequent landslides and erosion, thus Increased sedimentation in reservoirs and rivers
Indicator Impacts
Lower rainfalls Water supply stress situation for irrigation and domestic/industrial water supply
Projected rainfalls event affect the irrigation system
MADA Granary (Northwest) area is expected to have 57 months of water deficit and 183 months of water surplus in the projection period of 2025-2034 & 2041-2050. The monthly water surplus range:
+6 MCM to 2500 MCM
KADA (Northeast) Granary area is projected to have an extreme surplus which is indicating the possibility of flooded conditions in some of the paddy areas up to 5400 MCM
4. Assessing Vulnerability and Strategies of Adaptation
• To develop good water harvesting techniques for water conservation for both irrigation and water supply besides reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW) and improving irrigation efficiency
• To improved weather forecasting system as supporting tool forimproving water resources management
• To review floods management and structural integrity
• To impose “No Regret” actions:-i. promoting awareness, ii. capacity building,iii. encouraging the organizations and the public to take
affirmative action to evaluate and respond to climate change
Example of “No Regret” actions which could reduce or absorb any negative impacts of climate change on water resources• promoting the use of RegHCM-PM model by NAHRIM, updating of
water resources status and requirement for Malaysia that will incorporate considerations for climate change by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (NRE) through the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) and promoting the Integrated RiverBasin Management (IRBM) and Integrated Flood Management (IFM) led by NRE and DID
CONCLUSION• Malaysian water infrastructure is very likely can not sustain
thunderstorms which is more extreme due to the climate change
• Flooding will be predicted more serious and devastating to our assets and life.
• Frequent drought problems will further decrease the river flow.
• The expected changes in the hydrologic regime of Malaysia due tothe impact of climate changes may require significant planning of the Malaysia’s water resources to accommodate aforesaid changes into the future water balances over the Malaysia
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