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Climate Change Projection in Japan and its Climate Change Projection in Japan and its Background PolicyBackground Policy
- Research Utilizing the Earth Simulator-- Research Utilizing the Earth Simulator-
Hiroki KondoHiroki Kondo Frontier Research System for Global Change, JapanFrontier Research System for Global Change, Japan
Outstanding research issues from the TAR Kyo-sei Project with the Earth SimulatorOngoing projects for climate change projection Global Warming Research Initiative under the
Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)
Further actions required by TARFurther actions required by TARSystematic observations and reconstructions: Modelling and process studies: - Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors leading to c
hanges in radiative forcing. - Understand and characterize the important unresolved processes a
nd feedbacks, both physical and biogeochemical, in the climate system.
- Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long-term ensemble simulations using complex models.
- Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate variability, regional climate changes and extreme events.
- Link more effectively models of the physical climate and the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of human activities.
(year)
Earth Simulator Japan Foreign Countries
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Kyo-seiKyo-sei Project Project (Sustainable Co-existence Project on (Sustainable Co-existence Project on
Human, Nature and the Earth)Human, Nature and the Earth) <MEXT funds> <MEXT funds>Global projection related studies:* High-resolution climate modeling for future climate change
projection; on ES( CCSR et al.)* Long-term stabilization experiment (CRIEPI et al.) based
upon the NCAR model;* Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth
environment change ( FRSGC et al.); * Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling
(MRI/JMA et al.) ; and two other projects on physical processes Water cycle related studies(2): A Data assimilation study: and Other studies
High-resolution climate modeling and climate change projection under
scenarios ( CCSR et al. ) To develop a high-resolution CAOGCM (AGCM with a resolutio
n of T106 (~120 km) coupled with OGCM with a resolution of 1/4º in latitude and 1/6ºin longitude) from existing CCSR/NIES (Nationaol Institute for Environmental Studies) model.
- The model has already been developed. To make projection experiments by the above model for major IP
CC/SRES scenarios. - Experiments are being conducted and their results will be submitte
d to the archive center (PCMDI) under the coordination of IPCC/WG1 and WCRP/WGCM by 1 September.
Cooperation with the Hadley Centre for inter-comparison for further improvement
Further development of the model later: AGCM with resolution of T213 (~60 km) coupled withOGCM with resolution of 0.1º×0.1º,
IPCC SRES, stabilization and overshoot scenarios
A1B→const
B1→const
Overshoot
Climate change projection with main focus Climate change projection with main focus on long-term stabilization (CRIEPI et al.)on long-term stabilization (CRIEPI et al.)
Climate change projection based upon the NCAR climate model
- Long term projection under two stabilization emission scenarios with eventual 550 and 750 ppm CO2 concentratoins, and also under
“Overshoot Scenario” - Experiments are underway to be submitted by
1 September
Integrated Earth system modeling for Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth environment change projecting Earth environment change
(( FRSGC et al.)FRSGC et al.)
Main focus: Feed back effects of climate change to the concentrations of green house gases and other eart
h environment Projection with inclusion of carbon cycle, covering bio
spheric interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and land into the CCSR/NIES climate model.
- Experiments are ongoing to contribute to the AR4 Integrated climate modeling to include a carbon-cycle
model, atmospheric constituents model, and a biosphere model
Super-high resolution global and regional Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling (MRI/JMAclimate modeling (MRI/JMA ))
Main Focus: Regional extreme events including tropical cyclones, East Asian monsoon (Baiu), severe rain storms under global climate change
Modeling of a AGCM with a super-high horizontal resolution of about 20 km (TL959) and 60 vertical levels (L60) in the atmosphere.
- The model is an unprecedented global climate model resolvable even the eye of a tropical cyclone. It has been developed.
- Simulation experiments show reasonable results and projection experiments are being run through a time-slice method
Modeling of a cloud resolvable non-hydrostatic regional atmospheric model with a resolution of a several kilometers in grid size.
- This model with 5km grid size has simulated severe rainfall events reasonably. - Aerosondes and newly developed unmanned planes are being mobilized to mak
e measurements for validation data.
Present Climate Simulation
Annual Average: 82.75
Projected Climate
Annual Average: 63.25
Time-slice global warmingexperiment using an AGCM with 20-km horizontal resolution
RR2002 ProjectMRI/JMA/AESTO
Council for Science and Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)Technology Policy (CSTP)
CSTP: established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, with
Chairman (Prime Minister) , 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts
Prioritized Science and Technology Fields (4 fields): life science, information technologies, environment, and nano-techn
ology
Research Initiatives under the environment (5 subjects): Global Warming; Waste-free and Resource Recycling Technologie
s; Eco-harmonious Regeneration of River-basins and Urban areas; Chemical Substance Risk Management, and Global Water Cycle
Global Warming Research Initiative
Promotion System for Global Warming Research Initiative
Council for Science and Technology (CSTP) : Prime Minister (Chair), related Ministers(6) and Experts(8)
PT* for other areas
Expert Panel on Promotion Strategy of Prioritized Areas
*PT: Project Team
Environmental R&D Promotion PT* a CSTP Expert (Chair), 3
other CSTP experts, 6 Initiative chairs
for Mitigation Technology Development
(4 Programs )
(2 Programs )
for Climate Change
Other Environmental Research Initiatives (4)
Programs under the Global Programs under the Global Warming Research InitiativeWarming Research Initiative
Programs in the Climate Change Research Area - Monitoring and Process Study
- Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study
- Impact and Risk Assessment
- Mitigation Policy
Mitigation Technology Development Area - Greenhouse Gas Fixation and Sequestration
- Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction
- Coordination of ongoing specialized modeling under ministries and agencies
- International cooperation with advanced modeling centers in EU, USA, …
Ministry of Environment
ProgramProgram for Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study for Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study
Projects under the funds of Projects under the funds of Projects under the funds of
MLITMEXT Focusing on
- Impacts on Asian region
- Social & Economic models
- Impacts on human activities
Focusing on - Utilization of the ES
- Global climate change
- Basic scientific findings
Focussing on
- Interaction with NWP modelling
- Global and regional (over Japan) climate
- meteorological and oceanographic events
To Share findings in common parts of modelling
Contribution to IPCC
Verification by rebuilding paleoclimate
Ocean Drilling Project
MEXT
Climate modeling for climate change projection