CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATION IN CALIFORNIA
NCSL Summer Energy Outlook Conference – 4-22-08
Denver, CO
OUTLINE
• The GhG Issue• California Policy Landscape• Utility/SMUD Reduction Options
– Carbon Sequestration & Offsets– Energy Efficiency– RD&D– Renewables
THE GHG ISSUE
• Citizens Believe Global Warming is Happening & Will Get Worse in Future
• Numerous Scientific Studies, IPCC Reports• Federal Legislation Developing • Other States Taking Action, e.g., RGGI• Many California Scientific & Policy
Reports
THE GHG ISSUE
4.4 – 5.8 ºC
(8-10.4 ºF)
1.7 -3.0 ºC
(3.0-5.4 ºF)
Higher Emissions
A1fi(970 ppm)
LowerEmissions
B1
(550 ppm)
Medium-High Emissions
A2(830 ppm)
90% loss in Sierra snow pack55-75 cm (22-30 inches) of Sea level rise 3-4 times as many heatwave days in major urban centers2
2.5 times the number critically dry years3
20 % increase in electricity demand4-10 times as many heat-related deaths projected for some urban centers4
Increase in Forest yields not evaluated for this scenario5
Increase in Fire risk not evaluated for this scenario5
Increase in days meteorologically conducive to ozone formation5
70- 80 % loss in Sierra snow pack35-55 cm (14-22 inches) of Sea level rise 1-2 times as many heatwave days in major urban centers 2.5-5.5 times as many heat-related deaths projected for some urban centers4
75-85% increase in days meteorologically conducive to ozone6
2-2.5 times the number critically dry years3
11% increase in electricity demand30% decrease in forest yields (Pine)55% increase in the expected risk of large fires
3.1 -4.4 ºC
(5.5-7.9 ºF)
30-60 % loss in Sierra snow pack15-35 cm (6-14 inches) of Sea level rise 2-2.5 times as many heatwave days in major urban centers 2-4 times as many heat-related deaths projected for some urban centers4
25-35% increase in days meteorologically conducive to ozone formation 6
Upto 1-1.5 times the number critically dry years3
3- 6 % increase in electricity demand7-14% decrease in forest yields (Pine)10-35% increase in the risk of large fires
Statewide Temperature Rise (ºC)
2070-2099
Emissions Scenarios(End of century Atmospheric C02
Concentration)
•IncreasedTemperatures
•Reduction in Snowpack
•Worsened AirQuality
•Increased Riskof Flooding
Source: California EPA Climate Action Team Report, Figure 4-9, 2006
THE GHG ISSUE
California (left) and US (right) CO2 Emissions in 2006
Transportation 57%
Industry 20%
Commercial 3.4%Residential 7.6%
Electricity 12%
Electricity 28.5%Residential 14.6%
Commercial 12.7%
Industry 20%Transportation 24.2%
Source: DOE EIA 2006 Data
THE GHG ISSUEAverage CO2 Emissions Rates for Various Technologies
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
SMUD y200
5 Gen
eratio
n Avg
Cosumnes
SMUD Cog
ens
Gas P
eake
r
Oil Fire
d Com
bined C
ycle
IGCC w
/o se
questr
ation
Conven
tiona
l Coa
l
lbs
CO
2/M
Wh
Gas Combined Cycle
GHG 2020 & 2050 GOALS• 80% Reduction below state’s 1990 levels (2050)• Based on Climate Change Science
Comparison of Emissions Output Rates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
US 2004Avg Emis
Rate
2004 CAAvg Emis
Rate
SMUD FossilEmis Rate
SMUD TotalEmis Rate
ExpectedTarget 2020
CA Rate
ExpectedTarget 2050
CA Rate
Emis
sion
s Rat
e (lb
sCO2/
MW
h)
CALIFORNIA POLICY
• Governor’s Executive Order (2005) – 1990 Levels by 2020; 80% below 1990 by 2050
• SB 1368 - CO2 Limit for Utility Investments in Baseload PPs (2006)
• SB 1078 & SB 107 – Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) (2006)
• AB 2021 – Energy Efficiency Standard (2006)
CALIFORNIA POLICY
• AB 32 (2006)– 1990 Levels by 2020 (29% less than BAU)– California Air Resources Board = Lead Agency– Direct Regulations - - Multi Sector– Market-based Cap and Trade– CEC&CPUC Recommendations- Utility Sector– CARB Adoption: 2008 = Scoping Plan; 2011 =
Comprehensive GhG Regs; 2012 = Enforceable
REDUCTION OPTIONS
• Carbon Sequestration– Permanent Storage in Spent Gas/Oil Wells,
EOR, Deep Saline Aquifers, Deep Ocean– Performance? Cost?
• Offsets– Preserve a Forest & Get Credit for Emissions– What will be Eligible & How Much Credit???
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• SMUD’s Board adopted most aggressive energy efficiency goals in CA – 15% over ten years
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total10-Yr Avg
GWh 70 107 145 196 200 205 209 213 217 222 226 1940 194MW 18 28 40 58 59 60 62 63 64 66 67 568 57Budget ($millions) $ 25 $ 34 $ 40 $ 45 $ 45 $ 46 $ 46 $ 47 $ 48 $ 49 $ 50 $ 450 45$ The 10-year goals (2008-2017) were adopted by the SMUD Board of Directors on May 17,2007
10-YEAR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TARGETS ADPOTED BY THE SMUD BOARD OF DIRECTORS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• SMUD Residential Programs- Residential Services- Equipment Efficiency- Appliance Efficiency- Solar DHW- Shade Trees- New Construction - - Energy Star Lighting, Pool & Spa Efficiency
ENERGY EFICIENCY
• SMUD Commercial/Industrial• New Construction (Savings By Design)• Retrofit Programs
– Lighting and HVAC rebates– Small C/I HVAC Tune-Up– Retrocommissioning– Building Operator Certification– Process/industrial rebates
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• SMUD Energy Efficiency Loans Program Averages $25 - 30 million in loans per year– 4000 - 5000 loans/yr– 99% residential
• $42 million portfolio• 7 ½% interest rate• Terms up to 10 years• Program has operated for 28 years• $389 million over life of program• 127,500 loans
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• SMUD LOCAL GOVT. PROGRAM - 7 local governments: 6 cities & County of Sacramento
• Incorporate energy efficiency in general plans and developer agreements
• Eliminate permit fees for retrofit photovoltaic installations, Streamline application process, over the counter review, & final inspection in 24 hours
• Started the Build It Green Public Agency Council with local city managers, building officials, planning directors
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
•CHP - SMUD JPAs Owns3 Large Cogen Plants•DG Cooling Heating & Power•Current Program
–Define Market, Feasibility Studies,– Own/Operate or Provide Incentives?-Railyards, Blue Diamond, Airport -Terminal B Rebuild, Others
Fuel Cell Energy 300 kW MCFC
Capstone 30 kW Microturbine
8,964 homes
1,000 hotel rooms
1,370,000 ft2 retail
1.478,000 ft2 office
416,690 ft2 Historical
EFFICIENCY RD&D
• Emerging Technologies Focus
• Demand Side
SUPPLY SIDE RD&D • Supply Side
RD&D - LANDFILLS
•Problems –10-40% of methane produced at a landfill (with collection) is lost –Smaller landfills are not required to collect gas and release all their gas to atmosphere
•Opportunities–Controlled “bioreactor” landfills capture 95% of methane–New landfills are difficult to site - diverting organic wastes from landfills can extend their life
RD&D - BIOGAS PRODUCTION
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Anaerobic Bioreactor Landfill
Conventional Landfill
Time (Years)
Rel
ativ
e G
ener
atio
n R
ate
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Green Pricing Program (97) called Greenergy + RPS (2001)
Renewable Energy
Programs
2007 Supply Goal
2007 Actual
Supply* (Estimate)
2011 Supply Goal
RPS 12% 14.6% 20%Greenergy 2.2% 2.2% 3%Total 14.2% 16.8% 23%* Accounts for sales of surplus RECs in 2007. The final percentage could be lower due to sale of addtitional RECs.
SMUD's RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX 2007
TOTAL BIOMASS45%
TOTAL GEOTHERMAL22%
TOTAL WIND27%
TOTAL SMALL HYDRO6%
TOTAL PV< 1%
SMUD's Renewable Energy Supply(As of March 18, 2008)
1419 17
35
2445
2239
2019
1910
1800
1800
1735
874
618
552
487
487
487
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Ren
ewab
le E
nerg
y (G
Wh)
Renew ables Demand Reduction due to Board EE TargetENERGY NEEDED TO MEET GOAL (w ith Board EE Target)SB-1 Estimated Solar Energy to be Added to SMUD's RPSSolano Wind 3 (128 MW @ 35% CF = 392 GWh)EXISTING RENEWABLESGoal (w ith Board EE Target)Goal (w ithout Board EE Target)
RENEWABLES PV
FLAT PLATE
RENEWABLE ENERGY
•SMUD Solar Program – 25 yrs = 11 MW; 125 MW Goal Next 10 yrs. New Homes = Solar Smart•Builders include: Lennar Homes, Tim Lewis Communities, Homes by Towne, Centex Homes, DR Horton and Standard Pacific Homes.•Combines energy efficiency with integrated PV•Over 4,000 homes either approved or in the approval process
RENEWABLE ENERGY
SMUD RENEWABLESSMUD-Owned Solano Wind Project
RENEWABLE ENERGY
• Solano 102 MW Build-Out Completed– Land Purchase = another +128 MW by 2011
• Preparing for Future Growth– Wind Integration Study
• How much intermittency for a small control area? Operating impacts? Balancing generation costs?
– Evaluating New Wind Sites & Transmission
RENEWABLE ENERGY
RENEWABLE ENERGY
• SMUD Local Problem Wastes to Green Electricity• Board Emphasizes Local Environmental Benefits
Over Global Benefits• SMUD Renewables in Service Territory = Solar
and Biomass• How Does Society Currently Dispose of Wastes?• Can Local “Problem” Wastes be Converted to
Electricity & Mitigate Problem? YES!!!
TARGETED LOCAL WASTES/PROBLEMS
++++Fuel-Loaded Forests
+++++Landfills
++++Food Waste
+++Grease Waste
++++Dairy Waste
Other
OdorWaterQual.
Local AQ
GhG
RENEWABLES ANAEROBIC DIGEST.
Dranco - OWS
W. Sac. WWTPRCM Covered Lagoon
RENEWABLES - DIGESTERS
• 2 Dairy Digesters in S. Sac in Next Year
• USDA, CEC, SMUD Providing Incentives– Net Metered
• 1 Lagoon; 1 Complete Mix Digester
• Regulatory Issues
RENEWABLES - DIGESTERS
• Dairy Environmental Benefits Location of
Dairy
Number of Animals
*Total VOC Reduction (Lbs/Year)
**Methane Reduction
(Tons/Year)
CO2 Equivalent (Ton/Year)
Elk Grove 1,435 8,565 534 11,738
Galt #1 1,100 6,426 172 3,776
Galt #2 1,020 6,075 204 4,489
TOTAL 3,555 21,066 910 20,003
**Assuming the biogas produced contains 60% methane
*Based on SMAQMD Title V Emissions estimate; VOC reduction from the dairy planning addition of food waste, is based on manure only.
RENEWABLES-GREASE WASTE
• Benefits of approach– Existing excess capacity– Technically proven with
grease and food waste– Existing permits– Existing trained personnel– Existing use for biogas at
Carson Energy cogen
• Project status– SMUD sponsored
feasibility study in progressSac Regional Wastewater Plant
RENEWABLES - GREASE WASTE
Avg. Daily Gas Production
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 June 06 July 06
Month/yr
Cub
ic F
eet o
f Gas
Dig#1Dig#2
City of Riverside –Grease to Digester Tests
RENEWABLES-FOOD WASTE
• S.F. Food Collection Program
• SMUD/UCD Survey –“Leftovers to Lights”
• Add to Sac RWTP• Distributed Digesters
– Tollenaar Dairy– Folsom Prison Demo