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Climate Change Theory
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Climate Change Theory
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
408 m. land plants
100 m flowering plants
6 m earliest “humans”
Tim Tebow press conference
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
THE HOLOCENE (11,000-now)
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
• Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
• Species respond to climate dynamics
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Margaret Davis...
SCIENCE !
Pollen (SEM)
Acer rubrum Juniperus sp. Ambrosia trifida
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/palynology
Margaret Davis: Roger’s Lake Ecology (50:409-422), 1969
http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/esh/QE/Research/VegDynam/VegAnima/Viewer32/WebViewer.html
Pollen Viewer
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
• Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
• Species respond to climate dynamics
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Longer term temps?
http://www.realclimate.org/http://www.ipcc.ch/
Griffith Woods, KY
http://www.realclimate.org/
Potential influences on climate:
1) Sunspot activity
2) Volcanoes
3) Ocean current changes
4) Earth’s wobble
5) Atmosphere (greenhouse effect)
Sunspots!
Sunspots!
Sunspots!
No evidence of more volcanos
Sensitivity to Orbital Parameters
IPCC AR4 2007Milankovitch Theory
A CO2 driver of Climate Change….
The Greenhouse Effect is fundamental to our understanding of how Earth works:
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/diagrams/greenhouse/
Keeling Curve: Measured on Mauna Loa
On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground Svante Arrhenius The London, Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276.
Early Climate Model
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/
today
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0100000200000300000400000
Age (years before present)
CO
2 (p
pmv)
Homo sapiens sapiens
CO2 today
CO2 range in 2100
Petit et al, Nature v.399 (6735), pp. 429-436. (1999)
http://climate.nasa.gov/
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
• Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
• Species respond to climate dynamics
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Climate Change, Theory
