Climate Change to 2030 Re-defining Terroir
Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIASTMelbourne School of Land and Environment
University of Melbourne
The globe is warming at an increasing rate
IPCC 2007
South Eastern Australia is also warming
2030
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
1-sept6-sept
11-sept16-sept21-sept26-sept
1-oct6-oct
11-oct
Ganichot, 2002
Vines are and will respond to this warming
Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria
y = -1.83x + 39925
R2 = 0.62
26-Feb
5-Mar
12-Mar
19-Mar
26-Mar
2-Apr
9-Apr
16-Apr
23-Apr
30-Apr
7-May
14-May
21-May
28-May
19
84
19
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19
86
19
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90
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91
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00
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02
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06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Da
te w
he
n g
rap
es
re
ac
he
d 2
1 B
rix
A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009
10th Apr average pre1998
13th Mar average1998 and post
28 days
Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)
Future climates will change in both mean and variance of temperature and rainfall
Models and observations indicate increases in both
Mean temperatures
Temperature Variance
resulting in
More hot weather and extreme events
Less change in cold weather
frost uncertain
IPCC 2007
Future Environments for Viticulture – Southern Australia
• Temperature – + 0.7-1.2 C in 2030 and +2.3- 3.5 C in 2070 – More extreme events – heat waves
• Rainfall – - 4% by 2030 and -12-13% by 2070– Vine water use up + 7% in 2030 and +20-25% 2070– Runoff is more severely affected
• Frost – Difficult to know , but could be worse
• Carbon Dioxide – What will 450ppm do ?
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21Coonawarra
2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Ave
rag
e m
on
thly
tem
per
atu
re
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
2.5 °C
4.2 °C
Climate driven changes in phenology exacerbate post verasion temperature increases
Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008
Vines are and will respond to this warming But is it temperature alone ?
Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria
y = -1.83x + 39925
R2 = 0.62
26-Feb
5-Mar
12-Mar
19-Mar
26-Mar
2-Apr
9-Apr
16-Apr
23-Apr
30-Apr
7-May
14-May
21-May
28-May
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Da
te w
he
n g
rap
es
re
ac
he
d 2
1 B
rix
A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009
10th Apr average pre1998
13th Mar average1998 and post
28 days
Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)
Elevated CO2 increases Canopy Temperature
Free air CO2 enrichment -FACE
CO2 enrichment increases crop growth by approximately 20% CO2 enrichment decreases water loss and increases canopy temperature
Elevated CO2 increases the capacity of the leaf to produce sugar at high temperatures
Pho
tosy
nthe
sis
Leaf temperature (0C)
Long 1991
•Leaves are more tolerant of high temperatures at elevated CO2
•Photosynthetic rates and carbon accumulation can be higher at these high temperatures
•Potential for high sugar and compressed vinatges
Alcohol Contents of wine are increasing
Godden & Gishen 2005
A word from Charles Darwin
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.”
“It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Adaptation Actions
Severity of Climate Change- Temp, Rainfall & Extreme Events
In situ Adaptive
Management
Variety, Canopy man Irrigation Man Pest & Diseae
Adapting Systems
New crops New cropping systems New irrigation system New Markets
Transformation Changed industries New products Different Systems New production areas
Current productivity programs
Strategic system adaptation
Transformation to new climate ,
Need good economic models to assist producers define the milestones
Climate Change Projections -2030 Adelaide Hills Wine Region
Region- Adelaide Hills 2030 high emissions projected change
1970-2005 baseline
Percent Probability
CLIMATE VARIABLE 10 50 90
potential evapotranspiration (%) 1.1 6.6 4.1
Rainfall (%) -14.8 -13.20 -7.1
relative humidity (%) -1.5 -0.6 -0.2
solar radiation(%) 0.1 0.7 1.5
Temperature (°C) +0.5 +0.8 +1.3
wind speed (%) -2.8 0.4 3.4
t_max (°C) +0.6 +0.9 +1.4
t_min (°C) +0.5 +0.8 +1.2
Wine industry adaptation to climate change
• In situ Adaptation – Irrigation management of extreme events– Secure water – Modified canopy management – Re-evaluate crop load /quality relationships – Evolve wine styles
• System Adaptation – Change variety /rootstock– Change row orientation /canopy management – Change wine style – Investigate delays of phenology
• Transformation – Same wine style –new terroir – Row orientation – Secure water –surface/ground – Alcohol management – Flavour management
Cabernet Sauvignon
(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)
Regional Average Mean January Temperature
252423222120191817
Pri
ce
($
/to
nne
)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Cabernet Sauvignon
Malbec
Merlot
Pinot Noir
Shiraz
Chardonnay
Chenin Blanc
Colombard
Pinot Gris
Riesling
Sauvignon Blanc
Semillon
Cabernet Franc
Meunier
Muscadelle (Tokay)
Traminer
Verdelho
Ruby Cabernet
Variety code
Coonawarra Riverland Barossa Valley
Gippsland Yarra Valley Margaret River
Vic/NSW Murray Valley Tasmania Hunter Valley
Cabernet Sauvignon
Malbec
Merlot
Pinot Noir
Shiraz
Chardonnay
Chenin Blanc
Colombard
Pinot Gris
Riesling
Sauvignon Blanc
Semillon
Cabernet Franc
Meunier
Muscadelle (Tokay)
Traminer
Verdelho
Ruby Cabernet
Variety code
Coonawarra Riverland Barossa Valley
Gippsland Yarra Valley Margaret River
Vic/NSW Murray Valley Tasmania Hunter Valley
How do these warmer ripening temperatures impact on grape and wine quality ?
Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008
Wine Region Map provided by AWBCClimate data extracted from OzClim
no price data
costmax30
max30
0 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
31 - 35
36 - 40
41 - 45
46 - 50
51 - 55
56 - 60
61 - 65
66 - 70
71 - 75
76 - 80
81 - 85
86 - 90
91 - 95
96 - 100
More im
pact
Less im
pact
Potential reduction in winegrape value from climate change in 2030
Riverina16- 52%
Yarra Valley4 - 10%
Coonawarra1 - 4%
Hunter Valley5 - 17%
Year 2030
Margaret River3 - 7%
* measured by surrogate for quality: $/tonne
No price data
Grapevine development and maturity is strongly influenced by ambient temperature
Jones 2007
Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range
2050 Isotherms move poleward by 150-300km - NH area expands ,SH declines
Jones 2008
% change in land area with equivalent climate% change in land area with equivalent climate
1 e.g. Pinot Noir
15.8-19.1ºC
TotalArea
2 C. Sauvignon19.1-20.2ºC
3 Many
20.2-20.7ºC
4Shiraz
20.7-22.3ºC
5Verdelho
22.3-23.4ºC
6Chenin Blanc23.4-24.8ºC
2030 mid warming 2050 high warming2050 low warming
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mildura (Sunraysia)
Launceston Airport (Tasmania)
Cerberus (Mornington Peninsula)
Tem
per
atu
re
(°C
)Black SaturdaySmoke taint?
Damage to vineyards reported
In the past 200 years, greenhouse gases have continued to increase, and the Earth has warmed
Carbon dioxide and temperature last 1000 years
200
250
300
350
02004006008001000years before 2000 AD
CO
2 (
pp
m)
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
tem
pe
ratu
re (
o C)
Cape Grim and South PoleLaw Dome ice corestemperature change
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Margaret River 2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26Vic/NSW Murray Valley
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Margaret River 2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26Vic/NSW Murray Valley
(°C
)
Cabernet Sauvignon
VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)
+1.4C
+2.2C
Chardonnay
+1C
+2C
Cabernet SauvignonMalbecMerlotPinot NoirShirazChardonnayChenin Blanc
ColombardRieslingSauvignon BlancSemillonCabernet FrancTraminerVerdelho
Blackwood Valley Geographe Great Southern
Margaret River Perth Hills Swan District
Cabernet SauvignonMalbecMerlotPinot NoirShirazChardonnayChenin Blanc
ColombardRieslingSauvignon BlancSemillonCabernet FrancTraminerVerdelho
Blackwood Valley Geographe Great Southern
Margaret River Perth Hills Swan District
Distribution of varieties (Bearing hectares) in 2002 in selected wine regions of Western Australia (Source ABS)
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Margaret River 2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26Vic/NSW Murray Valley
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Margaret River 2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26Vic/NSW Murray Valley
(°C
)
Cabernet Sauvignon
VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)
+1.4C
+2.2C
Chardonnay
+1C
+2C
Warming has dual effects
1990
2030
2050
Year
January February March April May
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Ave
rag
e m
on
thly
tem
per
atu
re
Coonawarra
2050
2030
1990
Year
January February March April May13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Ave
rag
e m
on
thly
tem
per
atu
re
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
2.5 °C
4.2 °C
Impacts of Climate change on Grape ripening temperatures
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
1-sept6-sept
11-sept16-sept21-sept26-sept
1-oct6-oct
11-oct
Ganichot, 2002
Australian Phenology Trends for vintage , sugar and alcohol
• Australian vintages are moving forward at about 1 day per year
• Assuming average sugar accumulations of 1 Be’/week in final stages of ripening
• 1 day per year is equivalent of 0.14% sugar per year
• AWRI (Creina Stockley) reported today average increases of 0.14% alcohol increase per year over the same period (1990-2003)
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
1-sept6-sept
11-sept16-sept21-sept26-sept
1-oct6-oct
11-oct
Ganichot, 2002
Grapevine Phenology Responds strongly to Temperature
Greg Jones 2008
Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range
Finding the ‘Right’ Climate
Climate Suitability will move South with Climate Change
00midgp1
00midgp2
00midgp3
00midgp4
00midgp5
00midgp6
Coo
ler
clim
ate
vari
etie
s
War
mer
cli
mat
e va
riet
ies
Pinot NoirChard.
Cab Sauv.Merlot
ShirazSemillon
VerdelhoRiesling
Chenin Blanc
E.g.
Present Climate
Year 2050 high warmingYear 2050 mid warming
Year 2030 mid warmingNo varietal preference
2030 lower warming
2050 lower warming
2030 higher warming
2050 higher warming
• Current infrastructure and production is concentrated in the traditional irrigation regions (~60%).
• Need to find varieties suitable for this warmer ‘trailing margin’.
Adaptive challengesAdaptive challenges
River basins
Irrigation regions
Wine regions
What will happen behind this ‘trailing margin’?
Year 2050 lower warming
Cabernet Sauvignon
(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)
Regional Average Mean January Temperature
252423222120191817
Pric
e ($
/tonn
e)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Rsq=0.6094
The temperature sensitivity modelThe temperature sensitivity model
Are these phenology changes driven by more than temperature ?- Carbon Dioxide