Climate Change Vulnerability:An Overview

Thomas E. Downing

SEI Oxford Office

Tom.Downing@SEI.SE

Outline

• Concepts matter: where you start determines where you end up

• Linking broadscale vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods

• Integration: Integrated vulnerability assessment is possible, but best conducted at the local to regional level

• Opportunities in Trieste

Linking science and policy: Who wants information on

vulnerability?

• Where are the vulnerable? – Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class

• Who are vulnerable? – Livelihoods at-risk

• What should be done? – Link climate policy to sustainable development

• What is the future of vulnerability?– Exposure to global change, policy impacts

Adaptation spacePolicy

DEVELOPMENT: CLIMATE CONVENTION:

Additionality

ACTORS:

Local

Global

Private State

Implementation

Social vulnerability:

Risk managementSustainable livelihoods

A B

C

A: Farm agro-technologyB: National agricultural developmentC: International trade and markets

Uses of vulnerability assessments

Scale Indices Users

International Nationalcomparisons ofvulnerability

UNFCCC:Eligibility foradaptationfunding

Regional Multiple dimensionprofiles of regional

vulnerability

Regionalagencies:Programmedesign

LocalProfiles of vulnerable situations

or syndromesLocal offices:Project evaluation

Eco-systems

WaterOthersectors

Food HealthSettle-ment

Cost of climatic disasters

1677%359%4.1%3.6%Loss/Gross Domestic Savings

47%78%1%<1%Loss/income pc

20561768169Loss pc

9613,6902,43245,181Historical loss, $M

20%6%<0.1%Aid/GDP

4337908,21429,267GDP pc

NicaraguaHondurasArgentinaUSA

Source: Paul Freeman et al., IIASA and World Bank (2001)

Cost of disasters in Nicaragua

Without catastrophes, the number of people in poverty declines, reaching the target in 2010

With catastrophes and no external aid, the poverty gap increases over time.

Source: Paul Freeman, et al. (2001)

Climate impacts perspectives

Climate change

1st-Nth order impacts

Micro-adaptation

(Sectoral)Vulnerability

Climate variabilitySystemic

Vulnerability

Sustainabledevelopment

Adaptivecapacity

Sustainablelivelihoods

Starting points

• Scenario-led– V=ƒ(Climate change exposure, impacts, adaptation)– Climate change is the problem– Adaptation is marginal to climate change impacts– Short-term responses

• Vulnerability-first– V=risk of adverse consequences– Focus on adaptive capacity and systemic properties– Solutions in sustainable development– Highest priority is climate variability (risk)

HAZARDHAZARD

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

RISK SPACERisk is the overlay of hazardand vulnerabilityDisasters are the realisationof risk Both hazard and vulnerabilityare changing

Integrated vulnerability/adaptation

Source: Bohle, Watts, Downing

Operational vulnerability assessment

• How do we develop a consensual definition and measurement of vulnerability?

• How do we measure vulnerability?

Vulnerability is…

• An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.

• Urgent adaptation needs of most vulnerable groups • Existence of local coping strategies• Hard-won lessons from other (non-climate) disciplines

(e.g., sustainable livelihoods, disaster mitigation, natural resource management)

• No-regrets options and “Triple Dividend”• Disconnect between community needs and the policy

process

Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?

Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?

The Sustainable Livelihoods Connection

Poverty

Vulnerability to Shocks

Vulnerability to Climate Extremes

At risk of Climate Change

Sustainable Livelihoods

Resilience to shocks

Climate Change Adaptation

What does “Sustainable Livelihoods” mean?

Sustainable Livelihoods: The capability of people to make a living and improve their quality of life without jeopardizing the livelihood options of others.

A livelihood is the means, activities, entitlements and assets by which people make a living.

Sustainability implies:– Ability to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks– Economic effectiveness– Ecological integrity– Social equity

(Rennie and Singh, 1996)

Trends in food security frameworks

• Exposure: – Food security --> Livelihood security

• VAM:– Hoovering --> Structured assessment– Single indicator --> Profiles --> Pathways?

• Rescaling– Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation

A formal notation?Vs,g

c

Where:

T=threat

s=sector

g=group

c=consequence

E.g.: climate change vulnerability in agriculture

for farmers’ economic welfare

T

Vulnerability assessment techniques

• Indicators and mapping• Multi-criteria assessment and profiles• Dynamic simulation and multi-agent systems• Sustainable livelihoods

HDI ClassMissing (10)Low (45)Medium (22)High (100)

Human Development Index

Global desertification

Environmental Sustainability

ESI

1 (2)2 (24)3 (44)4 (27)5 (16)6 (7)

Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change

Settlement

Food

Health

Ecosystems

Water

Sensitivity sectors Coping and Adaptive Capacity sectors

Economics

Human Resources

Environment

National Baseline Estimates and Projections of Sectoral Indicators,

Sensitivity and Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability-Resilience Response Indicators to Climate Change

Sensitivity Indicators Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators

R. Moss:2001

Baseline Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Value

(World value = 0 for 1990)

YemenIndiaTunesia

ChinaEgypt

BangladeshSenegal

South-AfricaLibya

ThailandNigeriaUkraine

SudanUzbekistanSaudi-Arabia

MexicoWorld

IranCambodia

Korea-RepPolandIndonesiaChileHungaryKorea-D-R-RpUKJordanBulgaria

JapanNetherlandsSpainArgentinaUSAVenezuela

BrazilGermany

New-ZealandAustralia

Canada

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Italy: soil and water

Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1HH Size

Male laborers

Total Income

Total Expenditure

Crops sales price in bad year

Food Aid

Grazing land

Crop land

Mid Altitude

Road Access

Livestock holdings

Types of dairy

Low income crop (V High)

Middle income crop (High)

Crop/dairy (Mod)

Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)

High income dairy (Mod)

Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia

Emerging Sustainable

Farmers

Dynamic pathways: Linking present vulnerability to climate outlooks

Climate Forecasters

DisseminationChannels

CommercialFarmers

Vulnerable Farmers

          

 Multi-agent approach:•Represent actors as software agents•Multi-level vulnerability•Emergence from interactions

What can the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach do?

• Enhance a community’s portfolio of “social

capital”: composite of natural, physical,

financial, technical and human capital

• Increase livelihood security

• Enhance capacity to cope with climate-

related shocks

• Build capacity to adapt to climate change

An Example from India:

• Context: Poor rural villages in the drought-prone state of Maharashtra

Approach: Micro-catchment Restoration and Development Actors: Local Communities and the Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR)

Image source: http://www.wotr.org/

India: What happened?Individual villages undertook a package of SL measures,

designed to regenerate and conserve the micro-catchments upon which their community depends:– Community Organization– Soil, Land and Water Management (e.g., trench building)– Crop Management– Afforestation; Rural Energy Management (e.g,. tree-felling

ban)– Livestock Management; Pasture/Fodder Development (e.g,

grazing restrictions)– Micro-lending for supplemental income generation

India: How did it happen?

• Community commitment, investment and control• “Village Self-Help Groups”

• Participatory planning, implementation, management

• Targeted role for women

• Self-assessment

• Opportunities for livelihood security• Micro-lending; Supplemental income generation

• Community self-help groups

• Support of local NGO (WOTR)• Training and extension services• Blending of “external” and traditional knowledge

India: What was the result?

Satellite imagery of Shenit Watershed

Standard FCC Using IRS 1C LISS III band 2,3,4 data. Date of scan: 19th January 1996. Source: http://www.wotr.org

January 1996Prior to project implementation

December 1999During project implementation

India: What was the result?

The key outcome has been reduced vulnerability to drought of participating

communities

As of 2001:

• Number of Projects 128• Total Area Covered (ha.) 135,812• No.of Villages 176• No.of NGOs involved 77• No.of Districts 22• Total Population engaged 210,000 (approx.)

Image source: http://www.wotr.org/

An Example from Sudan:

• Context: Villages in the drought-prone Bara Province, Western Sudan

• Approach: Community-Based Rangeland Rehabilitation

• Key Actors: Villages within Gireigikh rural council, pilot project staff, UNDP/GEF

Sudan: What happened?A group of villages undertook a package of SL

measures, designed to regenerate and conserve the degraded rangelands upon which their community depends. These included:– Community Organization

– Alternative Livestock and Livestock Management

– Rural Energy Management

– Replanting

– Stabilization of sand dunes

– Creation of windbreaks

– Micro-lending for supplemental

income generation

(Image source: The Near East Foundation, http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)

• High impact - Several major objectives exceeded original targets project due to perceived benefits

• Positive leakage - additional villages implementing project strategies

• Strategies slated for expansion and replication in Province

Effectively combined participatory planning, capacity building and access to credit Diversified production system and established drought contingency measures

Sudan: What was the result?

Image source: The Near East Foundation (http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)

Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: Why do it?

Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: Why do it?

The SL approach helps users to:• Focus on most vulnerable people• Assess their vulnerabilities and strengths• Tap existing knowledge, ongoing efforts to

determine what works• Enable community-driven strategies and action;

ensure buy-in and longevity• Ultimately… fortify against climate-related shocks

Sample approach:• Identify resilient communities (indicators)• Ask why

– What do they do (strategies and measures)? – What do they have (assets, “social capital”)?

• Ask what factors/conditions enabled them to carry out strategies and measures

• Distill lessons on how to build community resilience to climate impacts

Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: How to do it?

Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: How to do it?

Using this as a tool in adaptation assessment can help to:

• Enable national planning processes to effectively consider the most vulnerable groups; articulate unique local vulnerabilities

• Identify locally-relevant resilience-building options

• Build understanding of micro- and macro-level enabling conditions for adaptation

• Build local adaptation awareness and engage local NGOs (potential adaptation project implementers)

ConclusionsApplying the SL Approach:

What can it do for adaptation?

ConclusionsApplying the SL Approach:

What can it do for adaptation?

(Image Source: Global Mechanism for the UNCDD website http://www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities/Enabling.htm). 

Opportunities in Trieste

• Vulnerability stream– Concepts and toolkit– Mapping and GIS– Indicators

• Livelihoods practicals– Drought early warning– Role playing and agent-based modelling– Resilient communities

• Stakeholders– Participatory appraisal