Climate Change_Food Security_and_Transfer of Knowledge_Murat Türkes_8 April 2013.pdf

7/28/2019 Climate Change_Food Security_and_Transfer of Knowledge_Murat Trkes_8 April 2013.pdf

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Climate Change and Food Security,

and Transfer of Knowledge betweenGenerations

Foodprint.eu

Third Foodprint.eu meeting in Piteti-Vranesti, Romania

EDUCATION TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE BETWEEN GENERATIONS5th 9th April 2013

Murat Trkes, PhDProfessor Emeritus of Physical Geography and Geology & Climatology and Meteorology

Member of the Science Committee of the TEMA Foundation, stanbul, Turkey

Affiliated Faculty at the Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey


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Food Security

... exists when all people, at all times, havephysical and economic access to sufficient,

safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietaryneeds and food preferences for an active andhealthy life.

(World Food Summit 1996)


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In May 2007, at the 33rd Session of theCommittee on World Food Security, FAO

issued a statement to reaffirm its vision of afood-secure world:

FAOs vision of a world without hunger is one

in which most people are able, by themselves,

to obtain the food they need for an active andhealthy life, and where social safety nets ensure

that those who lack resources still get enough

to eat.(FAO, 2007)

Food Security

(continued)


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Food Security

A community enjoys food security when all people, atall times, have access to nutritious, safe, personallyacceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced

in ways that are environmentally and socially just.

Four Dimensions to food security: Food availability

Food accessibility

Food stability

Food utilization


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Food Systems

Food Security must be considered through a FoodSystems Lens, which includes: food production

food processing and packaging food distribution and

food consumption

Food systems are highly complex and globalized - inassessing climate change and food security it is notsufficient to analyze domestic production.


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Global Environmental Change (GEC)Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused

or strongly influenced by human activities:

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level


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Deforestation

Fossil fuel consumption

Urbanisation

Land reclamation

Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction

Fisheries overexploitation

Waste production

Global Environmental ChangeHuman activities leading to GEC:

Examples of the anthropogenic activities:


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Critical Challenges: Climate change

(IPCC, 2007)


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Climate Change and Food Security

Types of impacts - climate change will likely have: Direct impacts - on plant and animal growth and food

processing and distribution networks

Indirect impacts - on social, economic and political structures

Timing of impacts Some now, some later

Some gradual, some sudden (i.e. abrupt changes)

Certainty of impacts Models have some uncertainties, and


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Direct Impacts of Climate Change

Due to Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity

Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification

Higher Temperatures Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high

latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3C

Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes

Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans Less or more warmer winters, but increased thermal stress for

livestock

Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires


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(continued)

Because of the Changesin Precipitation Reduction in arable land in areas with decreased

precipitation

Challenges capturing water in areas with increased orunchanged precipitation

Declines in aquaculture in areas of decreased precipitation

With Respect to Pests and Diseases Little knowledge at this point

Earlier spring activity, greater winter survival, andexpansion of ranges


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(continued)

Due to the ExtremeEvents Crop failure or reduced yields

Livestock death

Disruption of transportation lines

Rising Sea Levels

Elimination and salinization of arable land in some (low-lying)

coastal regions, and small island states


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An Overall Assessment

Global agricultural production not expected todecline as long as temperature increases do

not exceed 3C.

Significant regional shifts in food production willlikely negatively affect developing countries.


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Regional Food Self-SufficiencyChallenges:

1. Climate change and non-climate change impacts,

2. No incentives for new producers/de-skilled

population,3. Limited processing and distribution infrastructure,

4. Unclear how much land is irrigated or could be

irrigated,

5. Some products could not be produced here (or there),

6. Seasonality of growing would be a problem, etc.


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Climate Change Impacts on Grain Yields

Percentage change in average cropyields. Effects of CO2 are taken intoaccount. Crops modelled are:wheat, maize and rice.

Cereal production

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

A1 A2 B1 B2

world

%d

ifferencefromr

eferencecase

Global production

Parry et al. (2005)


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IPCC AR4 WGII

Climate Change Impacts on crop, livestockand forest production: IPCC estimates


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in addition to many significant global,

regional and national policies, actions and/or

measures;


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A major challenge for food security:The small scale / family farmer

Pro-poor progress requires:

creating opportunities for innovation andentrepreneurship,

Increased public research and extensioninvestment.

Small scale/family farm sustainability poses

challenging policy choices: payment for ecological services,

decentralized governance systems andtechnology choices.


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Small scale/family farmers:

Produce the bulk of global food,

Are the largest number of stewards for theenvironmental services and biodiversity,

Use the traditional farming information andsystems, AND

Perform the transfer of knowledge between theold and the new (present) generations, and

Higher and sustainable productivity increase attheir level will have a major impact on all the

development goals (organic/ecological).

A major challenge for food security:The small scale / family farmer


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Access to land and economic resources

Access to urban and export markets

Empower farmers with innovative tools, skills andknowledge to manage soils, water, biologicalresources, pests, etc.

Combine farmers with external knowledge (newpartnerships)

1. Poverty and livelihoods

Options for action: Sustainability Goals


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Needs approaches for development of food stockmanagement, market intelligences, early warning,distribution systems,

Local production (food sovereignty), access andadequate nutritional information / education,

2. Food security

Options for action : Sustainability Goals


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Enhancing sustainability while maintaining productivity(protecting the natural resource base and ecologicalprovisioning),

Improving nutrient, energy, water and land use

efficiency, Better understanding of crop environment interactions

(realize yield potential), farm diversification,promotion of agro-ecological and conservationagriculture (CA) systems, and

Development of the policies that includes endingperverse subsidies, payment for ecosystem services,promotion of organic agriculture, agro-ecology, etc.

3. Environmental sustainability would lead



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Are the integrated approaches that recognize the inter-linkages between health, nutrition and agriculture,and the ability to meet the sustainability goals,

Increase food security and safety, Lead additional investments to maintain and to improve

current systems, etc.

4. Human Health and nutrition



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Reforming related organizations (research, extension),integration of traditional / local knowledge,

Equitable access to production resources (land /

water), Reward formultifunctionality and ecosystem services,

Multistakeholder participation in decision making, etc.

5. Equity



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Global, Regional and Institutional

Activities, Actions and Applicationsdealing with the Issue:

Some Examples


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27

Joining Forces in Europe:Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change(FACCE JPI)


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Climate-smart Agriculture

Peter Holmgren

FAO


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Peter Holmgren, FAO

3 November 2009


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Two Goals of Our Time

1. Achieving Food Security 1 billion hungry

Food production to increase 70% by 2050

Adaptation to Climate Change critical

2. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 2 degree goal requires major emission cuts

Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions..

..and needs to be part of the solution


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Food Security andLocal Food Systems

Climate Change Leadership 19/3 2012

Center for Sustaianable Development (CSD)

Caroline Loohufvud, Human Geographer,

Urban and Rural Farmer


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Solutions and ways forward Small scale & labour intense organic farming

Agro-ecologyDiversified cropping systems

Incorporation of perennials: trees, bushes, wild vegetation

etc

Reintegration of crop and animal production

Nutrient recirculation

Seasonal diet

Self-sufficency of greens

Urban Agriculture & Gardening

Preserving

Local markets and cooperatives

Cookalong parties & Growalong networks

Foodsovereignty &

security


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Climate Change and Food Security

Adapting to ClimateChange

City of Rossland

May 11, 2010


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Climate Change and Food

Security

Polly EricksenEnvironmental Change Institute

University of Oxford

[email protected]


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Climate Change &

Sustainable Living

Diana Rashash, PhD, EIArea Specialized Agent Nat. Resources


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CLIMATE CHANGE AND

FOOD SECURITY:

IMPLICATIONS FORSUSTAINING COMMUNITY

HEALTHMODERATED BY ILONA VARALLYAY, JENNIFER YOURKAVITCH,AND ERIC SARRIOT

Wednesday, September 15th

CORE Fall Meeting 2010


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Consequences of a food securitystrategy for welfare, income

distribution and landdegradation:the Philippine case

Ian CoxheadUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison


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Consequences of climate change on foodsecurity in Africa

Ruth Haug

Noragric/UMB


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FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES (CDCs)

BY

T. OLALEKAN WILLIAMS

Head, Enterprise & Agric Section

www.thecommonwealth.org
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/images/biodiversity%20agriculture.pdfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/images/Impacts%20lower%20Murray%20Darling.pdf


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MODULE 3

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS AND FOOD

PRODUCTION
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/images/biodiversity%20agriculture.pdfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/images/Impacts%20lower%20Murray%20Darling.pdf


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Please select one of the following to continue:

Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges

Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges

Module 2. Climate variability and climate change

Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production

Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health

Part II - Addressing challenges

Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and examples of production systems

Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies

About the information package

How to use

Credits

Contact us

How to cite the information packageC. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture or climate-smart agriculture: An information package

for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations.
http://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_1.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_2.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_3.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_4.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/How_to_use.pdfhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Credits.pdfhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Contacts.pdfhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Contacts.pdfhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Credits.pdfhttp://www.cpesap.net/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/How_to_use.pdfhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_6.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_5.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_4.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_3.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_3.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_3.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_2.ppsxhttp://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cpesap/C-RESAP_Info_package/Links/Module_1.ppsx


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Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012


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Smallholder agriculture

under climate change:challenges and outlook

Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security

Impacts 4: Poorest at risk


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By 2050, severe

childhoodstunting up by

23% in central

Africa and 62%

in South Asia

(uses IFPRI IMPACT

model + socio-

economic models)

Lloyd et al. 2011

Environmental Health Perspectives

Impacts 4: Poorest at risk

SSSN ANNUAL NATIONAL CONFERENCE, LAFIA MARCH 12 2013


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SOIL DEGRADATION, FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGEEMMANUEL OLADIPO

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA

Keynote Address

A nation that destroys its soilsdestroys itself (FranklinRoosevelt, 32nd President of theUnites States)


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Dinlediiniz in ok Teekkr Ederim

Thank you very much for listening me

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