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REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Climate changes in Central Asia (agriculture activity impact )
But only a small part of Central Asiasupports agricultural activity
• There is no unused land for agriculture activity
• There are no a unused water resources
• It means that all forces have to be directed to tasks:
• no loss of agricultural land• Increase water usage efficiency• Increase, not decline, in agricultural
productivity
It means that theagriculture sector is vulnerable
Central Asia is almost 10 times larger then Germany or France
Hydro energy and agriculture: optimal management and relation to climate changes
Past, current, and short term projections
Future plans
databases
all about water, all about land,all about management structure, temperature, and precipitation
Energy sector
Croppattern
Watermanagement
Results
Climate change: water,. precipitation
Results
Models: EPIC and its clones, DSS_Kabul_Kunduz, IBMR, Amu In use in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan now
was used on Amudarya, Sirdarya, Zerafshan, Kabul, Kokcha, Kunduz, Swat, Jellum, Indus, Vahsh.
We do not plan to discuss the models and their results here.
We will speak about databases and climate change
Databases: include covered area
from Indian Ocean to N. Kazakhstan, Caspian sea , and China:
Temperature
Water – quality and quantity
(river, canal, returns, reservoirs)
Precipitation
300 points, up to 110 years, monthly.
250 points, up to 110 years, monthly.
2500 points, up to 100 years, monthly.
All info about land (last 10 years)
All info about crops (last 10 years)
MODIS space photos (last 14 years)
500 points, 27 years, daily.
Energy sector
Crop pattern
Water managem
ent
ResultsDirectly used by models and reports
Selector
Statistics and models
Climate changes (temperature)Temperature observation at the Tashkent station
11,0
11,5
12,0
12,5
13,0
13,5
14,0
14,5
15,0
15,5
16,0
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
years
tem
pera
ture
in
C
annual
trend
Air temperature trends (Amudarya delta)
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
years
tem
pera
ture
C
Tashkent
Chimbay
Kungrad
Nukus
Tahiaatash
Muynak
Temperature observations and trend on the
Fedchenko glacier
-9,00
-8,50
-8,00
-7,50
-7,00
-6,50
-6,00
-5,50
-5,00
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
years
tem
pera
ture
trend
temperature
Two hot points: Tashkent Nurek
Our independent investigation agrees closely with ADB results related to
temperature.
Our results are 1.5 smaller in summer and 1.3 bigger for another seasons
Uzbekistan – changes per 10 year (ADB)
We agreed closely in averages by states
State Increase in each 10 years
Kazakhstan 0.26Kirgizstan 0.08Tajikistan 0.10Uzbekistan 0.29
Info from ADB
From our point of view - it is more important toconnect temperature increases with agricultural zones
Climate change (Precipitation)
Precipitation at the Tashkent station
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
years
pre
cip
itati
on
in
mm
/mo
nth
precipitation
trend
We do not see remarkable changes in annual precipitation, but they may exist
More interesting to look at the distribution within years
ADB found increasing in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
But what about this? Is this good or bad?
Precipitation at Tashkent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
month
mm
1925-1950
1951-1975
1976-2001
Climate changes (Water availability)
Comparison temperature and runoff trendstemperature scale 100 (T - 10 )
runoff scale m^3/sec
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
years
runoff
temperature
Typical changes in the runoff shape
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
month
run
off
(m^
3/s
ec
)
"1914-1940" "1941-1975" "1976-1990" "1991-2000"
1914-1940: month 07, day 03 1941-1975: month 07, day 021976-1990: month 06, day 30 1991-2000: month 06, day 26 Comparison dry year runoff with irrigation
needs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
month
m^3
.sec
Kerki
water demandSituation is acceptable (water availability and demand are close) but the system is vulnerable
Veg.
first part
second part
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,900 1,920 1,940 1,960 1,980 2,000 2,020
averagevegnevegspring
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1950-1970
1971-1990
1991-2013
Total
veg.
non veg.
Average monthly discharge at inflow point at “Tohtogul” in MCM
Partition by seasons
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Vegetation
Nonvegetation
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1930-1975
1976-1990
1991-2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Nurek_inflow_(av.5)
Vegetation
Nonvegetation
start_veg
end_veg
Average monthly discharge at inflow point of “Nurek” in MCM
Climate change.
• Level of ocean goes up• Waves in last 20 years became
10 cm larger• Hurricanes are stronger• Floods are bigger• Droughts are deeper
Air temperature increase almost everywhere
Level of oceans goes up because of land ice cover meltingDecreasing water density as a result of heating
But water needs more time then air for heating: the mean level will go up even as heating of the atmosphere stops.
How much? It is easy to show at least a 0.5 meter rise above the level that we observe now
Almost all climate models build on atmosphere and ocean circulation and interactions
17 июля 1998 года ужасное землетрясение на северо-западном побережье Папуа-Новой Гвинеи привело к возникновению цунами...
Possible, climate models are build on quicksand
Most of models look like this or include this equationsMost of results look like this
Wind friction is a main engine and source for circulation in oceans
Do these results correspond to reality?
Possibly not
Maybe we can find another source for ocean and atmosphere circulation
- Parameter (not a variable). This is an input for models!!!!It shows the average wind direction and distribution
above sea level at fixed heights and for various points in oceans. Are these possible ????
Contra currentsSources of forces
?
Precipitation Precipitation
Shadow of rain on the continents shows direction of main streams of air
Compare differences between West and East coasts for Africa and America.Australia near Tasmania is also interesting
Level to the west of Panama is higher than to the east. Difference is extremely big in rainy season
+1 C will give +4% of precipitations but only for the rainy seasons.
Lets do not forget ADB info about 5-10% precipitation increasing in CA.
Time for heating reaction in ocean compared to atmosphere: > 10 years
Density of water also increases with temperature. Average depth of oceans is 4000 meters. +1 C will yield nearly 0.76 meter (Oceans T. = 17.5)
Maybe the Maldives has no place in the future equilibrium situation with 2C heating, whichhappened in the last 30 years and will cause1.52meter rise very soon as oceans respondto atmosphere heating. (Average height ofMaldives 1.5 meters above sea level).
Но высказываются и другие мнения. Е. Г. Никифоров на I съезде советских океанологов (1977) сказал:«Проблема объяснения современной циркуляции вод не может считаться удовлетворительно решенной даже на уровне качественных гипотез. Гипотезы о ветровом происхождении циркуляции вод не объясняютглубинную циркуляцию, а гипотеза о термохалинной природе циркуляции вод опирается главным образом на существующее поле плотности. Поэтому никаких выводов о природе циркуляции вод на основе расчетов,выполненных по фактическому полю плотности …сделать так же невозможно”.
Вызывает большое удивление, что альтернативная гипотеза, наиболее физически обоснованная, о причине образования крупномасштабных циркуляций океана остается практически неизвестной более 250 лет.В 1844 г. И. Кант предположил, что основной причиной, замедляющей скорость вращения Земли, является сила трения о дно течений, возникающих в результате воздействия приливообразующих сил Луны и Солнцана водные массы океанов.
If Kant has not made a mistake, we will have (after decreasing friction in water):
• Winter at the Siberian platform becomes colder and waves of cold will penetrate to Central Asia from time to time. This is because the Gulfstream will heat ocean ice and penetrate deeper to the North. Before, the Gulfstream moved heat exactly to Europe.
• Reduced ice cover in the Arctic Ocean will continue.
• Spring will bring more precipitation in Central Asia because the Gulfstream will be directed to the center of Europe in early Spring instead of Winter. Europe, Russia, Kazakhstan, and other CA states will receive more rainy springs then before.
• Summers will become more dry because air with clouds saves energy from friction and so possibly will find a way to cross America ridges.
Unfortunately nothing changes from this time
Current temperature growth for the last decade
We should…We can …and we made only what we can.
We have to understand what
approach was used. And this
will give us understanding
about what climate change prediction is.
And we will better understand
dynamic global processes that will determine future
paths
And we will better understand static global processes
that operate today
But can we?
Global circulation in the oceans