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Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in Pennsylvania in 2020 Research Findings Prepared by Global Strategy Group for Climate Power 2020
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Page 1: Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in ...€¦ · Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in Pennsylvania in 2020 Research Findings Prepared by Global Strategy Group

Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in Pennsylvania in 2020 Research Findings Prepared by Global Strategy Group for Climate Power 2020

Page 2: Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in ...€¦ · Climate & Fracking: Winning Issues for Biden in Pennsylvania in 2020 Research Findings Prepared by Global Strategy Group

Methodology

2

Global Strategy Group conducted an online

survey of 801 registered voters in

Pennsylvania between August 13 – 19, 2020.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence levelis +/- 3.5%.

The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.

Margin of errorVoters

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Key Findings

Pennsylvania voters are strongly pro-climate. An overwhelming majority of voters in the state think climate change is aserious problem, and they do not look kindly upon elected officials who deny that climate change is a threat or oppose climateaction. By large margins, Pennsylvania voters support pro-climate policies, including bold climate action and the corecomponents of Joe Biden’s climate plan: investing $2 trillion over the next four years to build clean energy infrastructure andplans to move the U.S. to 100% clean electricity and clean energy.

Voters have a favorable view of natural gas, but not of fracking. They strongly support environmental regulations,including stronger regulations on fracking. While Pennsylvanians are favorable toward “the natural gas industry,” “thefracking industry” is underwater. Perhaps more important, these voters are widely favorable toward environmental regulationsand, by large margins, support stronger regulations and limits on oil and gas fracking – including phasing out fracking by 2050and phasing out new fracking permits on public lands and waters.

Voters are rightly skeptical about Trump’s false attacks on Biden over fracking and climate – and this provides a huge opening for Biden to counterpunch with a jobs focus. While Trump’s false attacks on Biden over fracking can land if not countered, voters are rightly skeptical about their veracity. This is even truer about Trump’s larger attack on climate. This provides a big opportunity for Biden to counterpunch with messaging that corrects the record, critiques Trump, and embraces strong climate action with a focus on the economic benefits of clean energy.

All of this translates to gains for both Biden and a generic Democrat when they engage on climate and fracking. Voters would vote for a Democrat who supports taking bold action on climate over a Republican who does not by 19 points –outpacing the standard generic ballot (+7) by 12 points. Additionally, engaging in balanced debates on both fracking and climate boosts Biden’s lead over Trump, improves his favorability rating, and increases motivation of his voters.

3

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2020 Landscape

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PA leans Democratic due to a slight advantage on party ID and winning over more independents in the generic vote

Partisan Self-Identification and Party Registration

5

51

82

49

15

5

3

9

3

44

15

42

82

Overall

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

44

41

16

27

40

32

Party self-identification

Party registration

Democrat Independent Republican

Democrat Don’t know/Refused Republican

Net Dem

+4

+9

Generic Vote for Congress

Democrat Undecided Republican Net Dem

+7

+67

+7

-67

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Presidential favorability ratings are divided along partisan lines, but Biden outperforms Trump overall and among independents

Joe Biden Favorability

6

42

18

39

73

57

80

59

25

Overall

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Donald Trump Favorability

49

74

46

21

3

4

4

48

22

50

78

Overall

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Favorable Don’t know Unfavorable Net Fav

+1

+52

-4

-57

Favorable Don’t know Unfavorable Net Fav

-15

-62

-20

+48

47% very unfavorable

34% very unfavorable

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Biden dominates Trump in the Philly DMA and holds his own elsewhere while consolidating his approval advantage among independents

Vote for President

7

53

775222

72445447505048

67585045

4

3

7

4

10

3

3

2

5

2

4

3

4

45

43

204174

18534351454848

30384650

Overall

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

POCWhite non-college

White collegeWhite men

White womenWhite 55+White <55

Philadelphia CountyRest of Philadelphia DMA

Pittsburgh DMANon-Philly/Pitts DMAs

Biden Undecided Trump Net Biden

+10

+57

+11

-52

+54

-9

+11

-4

+5

+2

0

+37

+20

+4

-5

Vote for President (Two-way)

50

53

5

4

2 42

43

Four-way

Two-way

Biden Hawkins Undecided Jorgensen Trump Net Biden

+8

+10

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Mean

8.9

9.2

9.0

8.8

9.0

9.2

8.7

8.9

9.1

8

65

73

62

58

67

75

62

64

70

17

14

21

22

15

13

15

17

17

9

8

11

11

8

8

8

12

8

8

5

6

9

9

4

14

8

5

Overall

Biden voters

Trump voters

18-44

45-64

65+

POC

White non-college

White college

Ext. motivated (10) Very motivated (8-9) Somewhat motivated (6-7) Not motivated (0-5)

Please rate your level of motivation to vote in the election in November for President, US Congress, and other offices on a scale from zero to ten.

Biden voters are more intensely motivated to vote than Trump voters; younger voters, POC and less educated whites are less motivated

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Issue Landscape

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+75 +79

+55 +57

+53 +60

+52 +55

+38 +54

-18 -14

-27 -35

-32 -25

-33 -54

-49 -51

10

83

71

71

71

61

32

26

21

25

21

9

13

11

10

16

18

26

17

9

8

16

18

19

23

50

53

53

58

70

Clean energy jobs

Regulations to reduce carbon emissions

The Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA

Environmental regulations

The natural gas industry

The fracking industry

Oil and gas CEOs

Fracking CEOs

Lawmakers who oppose strong action to combat climate change

Lawmakers who deny that climate change is a threat

*“Swing” indicates voters who are not locked into either party on the various presidential and generic ballots. They tilt to the center-right (22% of registered voters in PA).

Favorable Don’t know UnfavorableNet Fav

Overall Swing

Favorability of People and Groups (Ranked by Net Fav)

PA voters are very favorable toward environmental regulations. Although natural gas is well-liked, especially among center-right swing voters, fracking is viewed negatively

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Net Support

Overall Swing Philly Pitt

+58 +51 +78 +31

+53 +57 +61 +47

+53 +52 +62 +39

+50 +48 +56 +53

+43 +27 +56 +58

+34 +28 +55 +33

+32 +32 +52 +6

Voters – including swing voters – feel climate change is serious and support pro-climate proposals and stronger fracking regulations

Seriousness of Climate Change

74

73

73

71

66

62

59

10

7

7

8

11

10

14

16

20

20

21

23

28

27

Placing stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking, such as increasing the minimumdistance between fracking sites and homes and requiring the disclosure of all chemicals…

A plan to move the U.S. to a 100% clean energy economy by the year 2050

The U.S. government taking bold action to combat climate change

A plan to invest $2 trillion over the next four years to build clean energy infrastructure

Placing stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking

Phasing out oil and gas fracking by the year 2050 and requiring utilities to use renewableenergy like wind and solar instead

Phasing out all new oil and gas fracking permits on public lands and waters

Support Und. Oppose

Policy Proposals

46 36 13 4Overall

Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Not at all serious

82 83 90 75

Overall Swing Philly Pitt% serious

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Reframing the generic ballot around fracking regulations or bold climate action produces significant gains for Democrats with center-right

If the election for Congress were held today between a Democratic candidate who supports stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking and a Republican candidate who opposes stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking, for whom would you vote?

12

55

82

54

21

56

55

8

7

12

6

7

8

37

11

34

73

37

37

Overall

DemocratsIndependents

Republicans

MenWomen

Democrat Undecided Republican Net V2 Net V1

+18 +7

+71 +68

+20 -2

-52 -66

+19 +5

+18 +9

47% very unfavorable

34% very unfavorable

If the election for Congress were held today between a Democratic candidate who supports taking bold government action to combat climate change and a Republican candidate who opposes taking bold government action to combat climate

change, for whom would you vote?

57

85

56

24

54

59

5

2

8

6

3

8

38

13

36

70

43

33

Overall

DemocratsIndependents

Republicans

MenWomen

Democrat Undecided Republican Net V2 Net V1

+19 +7

+72 +66

+20 +13

-46 -68

+11 -2

+26 +15

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Vote Movement

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Initial AsksMotivation to vote in 2020

Votes: V1

Climate and presidential favorability

Support for climate action & clean energy investments

Fracking Attack & Pushback (Split Test: Jobs vs Pollution Response)Re-ask votes: V2

Climate Attack & PushbackRe-ask motivation, votes, and presidential favorability: V3

14

Survey Structure

Anti-Trump and Pro-Biden Messaging (Split Test)Re-ask motivation, votes, and presidential favorability: V4

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Pushback focused on creating clean energy jobs increases Biden’s vote share, favorability, and motivation among his supporters. Pollution response basically fights attack to a draw

Fracking Split Test Movement

15

Vote Motivation (Mean) Favs

Jobs 4-way 2-way Biden Trump Biden Trump

V1 +8 +10 9.11 9.08 +4 -15

V2 +13 +13

V3 +15 +15 9.27 9.14 +15 -12

Change V1 to V3 +7 +5 +0.16 +0.06 +11 +3

Vote Motivation (Mean) Favs

Pollution 4-way 2-way Biden Trump Biden Trump

V1 +8 +9 9.28 8.80 0 -15

V2 +8 +8

V3 +9 +10 9.35 8.80 +3 -13

Change V1 to V3 +1 +1 +0.07 0.00 +3 +2

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Positive climate messaging on Biden boosts his lead and favorability a bit further. Negatives do not

Negative and Positive Message Testing

16

V3 V4 Favs

2-way 4-way 2-way 4-way V3 V4

Negative +12 +12 +12 +12 Trump -14 -14

Positive +12 +12 +15 +15 Biden +12 +14

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17

DEMOGRAPHIC V1 Net Biden V3 Net BidenChange from

V1 to V3

White 18-54 -6 +7 +12

White 55+ +1 0 -1

Philadelphia DMA +30 +33 +3

Pittsburgh DMA +7 +15 +8

Non-Philly/Pitts DMAs -16 -5 +11

DEMOGRAPHIC V1 Net Biden V3 Net BidenChange from

V1 to V3

Overall +8 +15 +7

Democrats +57 +69 +12

Independents +10 +21 +11

Republicans -49 -50 -1

POC +54 +77 +11

White non-college -14 -6 +8

White college +10 -16 +6

White men -11 -2 +9

White women +6 +10 +4

With jobs message, balanced debate results in biggest gains with center-left, voters of color, younger whites, and outside the Philly DMA

Presidential Vote Progression – Key Demographics (Jobs Split Sample)

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Messaging

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30% very believable

39% very believable

39% very believable

[POLLUTION PUSHBACK] Independent fact-checkers say these claims are simply "false." Joe Biden does not support a ban on fracking -he supports common sense safeguards to protect our water from contamination by toxic chemicals and investing in clean energy to combat climate change and create 10 million good-paying jobs across the country. Trump is trying to distract voters from the fact that he put oil and coal lobbyists in charge of protecting our environment - and they immediately went to work rolling back over 100 environmental safeguards and allowing corporate polluters to pump more toxic pollution and chemicals into our air and water.

[JOBS PUSHBACK] Independent fact-checkers say these claims are simply “false,” Joe Biden does not support a ban on fracking -he supports common sense safeguards to protect our water from contamination by toxic chemicals and investing in clean energy to combat climate change and create 10 million good-paying jobs across the country. Trump is trying to distract voters from the fact that he eliminated incentives for wind and solar power, making renewable energy more expensive for Pennsylvania families and costing almost 19,000 Pennsylvania clean energy workers their jobs –which is more people than work in natural gas production in the state.

19

Joe Biden wants to ban fracking in Pennsylvania, which would kill 600,000 jobs, damaging Pennsylvanians' livelihood at a time when nearly two million people are already out of work in the state. Even before the coronavirus devastated our economy, studies showed that banning fracking would be a disaster for Pennsylvania. Biden's plan to ban fracking would cost the state hundreds of billions in lost income and raise energy costs for Pennsylvania families by thousands of dollars and shows just how willing he is to let the Democrats' liberal mob call the shots.

Two different pushback messages to Trump’s fracking attack on Biden were tested, both of which were more believable than the initial attack

Split

sample

Split

sample

Full

sample

Informed Vote – Messaging Split

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20

Costs are the most convincing part of Trump’s argument but also generate skepticism. Voters are even less inclined to believe hyperbolic claims around way of life

Parts of the statement that you find the most convincing arguments to vote against Joe Biden in November.

Parts of the statement that you find the least convincing or believable.

27% of voters say this statement is very believable; 45% say it is not believable

Below is a statement that Donald Trump has made about Joe Biden

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21

Trump’s “hoax” claims and the benefits of Biden’s plan are compelling, though some skepticism about 10 million jobs claim

Parts of the statement that you find the most convincing arguments to vote for Joe Biden in November.

Parts of the statement that you find the least convincing or believable.

39% of voters say this is very believable; 29% say it is not believable

Below is a statement from supporters of Joe Biden

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22

39 22 50 58

37 23 41 40

36 18 46 45

35 18 30 31

32 9 33 26

Below is a list of statements from supporters of Joe Biden. For each, please indicate how convincing of a reason it is to vote for Joe Biden in November.

[EXPERTS/LEADERSHIP] Joe Biden knows that our politicians have a duty to listen to our nation's most respected leaders

and experts, especially in a time of crisis. As president, Biden will bring steady leadership, make decisions based on the facts, and

work with our top scientists and public health experts to develop plans to deal with our country's biggest challenges, including

responding to the coronavirus crisis and combatting the long-term threat of climate change.

[LEGACY] Biden understands that we have a basic responsibility to leave a better world for our children. His climate plan will

move the U.S. to 100% clean energy and eliminate carbon pollution by 2050. And after listening to scientists, experts, and the

concerns of younger Americans, Biden made his plan even more ambitious, including a $2 trillion investment over the next ten

years to build the infrastructure we need to scale up clean energy and combat climate change.

[RECOVERY] Joe Biden believes that as we rebuild our economy after the coronavirus crisis, we should be investing in

industries that will create good jobs right now and provide benefits to the country for decades to come. That's why he is proposing

the largest ever investment in clean energy to create 10 million good-paying middle-class, union jobs while also protecting our

kids’ health, spurring innovation and economic growth, and combatting climate change.

[FRACKING] Oil and gas fracking releases toxic chemicals and pollutants like benzene, formaldehyde, and arsenic into our

drinking water which doctors and scientists have confirmed caused cancer, birth defects, and other diseases. That’s why Joe

Biden supports commonsense safeguards to prevent fracking near our homes and schools and to phase out new fracking on

America’s public lands and waters.

[EJ] Joe Biden understands that low-income communities have paid the highest price for our dependence on dirty energy

sources in the form of polluted air and water and greater levels of asthma, cancer, and birth defects. That’s why he will clean up

air and water pollution – like lead, mercury and toxic chemicals – in these low-income communities, including communities of

color.

Overall Swing Overall Swing

% Very Convincing % Top 2

Overall and among persuadable voters, the “experts/leadership,” “recovery,” and “legacy” positive messages are most effective

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23

43 22 37 40

42 23 49 50

39 20 34 18

38 19 23 28

37 22 30 38

35 17 27 25

Below is a list of statements that some people have made about Donald Trump. For each, please indicate how convincing of a reason it is to vote against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

[CEOS/TAX BREAKS] Donald Trump gave big oil and coal CEOs hundreds of billions in tax breaks, which allowed Chevron to pay zero in federal

taxes even as they gave their CEO $33 million and laid off thousands of workers. Now, with the economy in recession, Trump wants to give these same

oil and coal CEOs billions in taxpayer-funded bailouts at the same time he is opposing more assistance to American workers who have lost their jobs.

[EXPERTS] Our leaders have a duty to listen to our nation's most respected experts – and a responsibility to leave a better world for our children. But

Donald Trump ignored warnings from the CDC about the coronavirus. Now, he’s ignoring scientists, NASA, and our military leade rs when they say that if

we don't act, climate change will end up meaning that our kids will inherit a future filled with droughts, flooding, food and water shortages, and more.

[ROLLBACKS] Instead of listening to the scientists and military leaders who say climate change is a threat, Donald Trump put oil and coal lobbyists in

charge of protecting our environment – and they immediately went to work rolling back over 100 environmental safeguards, allowing corporate polluters

to pump more toxic pollution and chemicals into our air and water, and putting the health of our families and kids at risk.

[FRACKING] Oil and gas fracking releases toxic chemicals and pollutants like benzene, formaldehyde, and arsenic into our drinking water which

doctors and scientists have confirmed caused cancer, birth defects, and other diseases. Yet, Donald Trump wants to allow more fracking and pipelines

close to Pennsylvania homes and schools and opposes commonsense safeguards like requiring fracking companies to disclose the chemicals they use.

[JOBS] Trump has given billions in tax breaks to oil and coal companies and their CEOs, while regular people have been left behind. The renewable

energy industry employs over three million Americans and is key to combatting climate change. Yet, Trump eliminated tax incentives for wind and solar

power, making renewable energy more expensive for middle-class American families and costing almost 20,000 Pennsylvania workers their jobs.

[EJ] Black and Latino communities have been subject to environmental racism for decades, poisoned by higher levels of toxic pollut ion and dirty air,

which has made them more likely to die from the coronavirus. Yet Donald Trump rolled back dozens of environmental protections and allowed big oil and

coal CEOs to spew more pollution in communities of color.

Overall Swing Overall Swing

% Very conv. % Top 2

Giving hundreds of billions in tax breaks to big oil CEOs and failing to listening to experts are the most damaging attacks against Trump

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Conclusions & Recommendations

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Conclusions & Recommendations

Don’t shy away from engaging on fracking specifically or climate more broadly. Trump supporters who believe that this is a winning issue are misreading the electorate. While the natural gas industry is viewed favorably in Pennsylvania, fracking is most certainly not, and voters overwhelmingly side with Biden. More important, balanced debates on both of these issues expand Biden’s already solid lead, boost his favorability, and motivated his voters.

On fracking, correct the record and turn Trump’s jobs argument against him by contrasting the cost of Trump’s attacks on clean energy with the potential of Biden’s clean energy plan. Despite voters’ negative perceptions of the fracking industry, an attack against Biden on fracking is damaging if left uncorrected. Correct the record by affirming that Biden supports common sense safeguards that will protect Pennsylvania’s water. Then pivot aggressively to a contrast of Biden’s job-creating clean energy plan and Trump’s record of eliminating incentives for wind and solar power and costing 19,000 Pennsylvania workers their jobs.

On climate more generally, push off of Trump’s unbelievable lies… As with his fracking attack, Trump’s claims about the cost of Biden’s climate plan can damage if left unchecked. But, again, voters are rightly skeptical. Meanwhile, his claims about Biden banning hamburgers, airplanes and cars are viewed as totally ridiculous and offer an opportunity to discredit Trump’s entire message.

25

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Conclusions & Recommendations (cont’d)

… Contrast Biden’s leadership to tackle our country’s biggest challenges and help our economy rebuild after the coronavirus crisis with clean energy… There are three messages that rise to the top and can most effectively boost positive perceptions of Biden:

• Experts/Leadership: Biden knows that our leaders have a duty to listen to the experts. He will bring steady leadership, make decisions based on the facts, and work with our experts to deal with our country's biggest challenges – like coronavirus and climate change.

• Recovery: Joe Biden believes that as we rebuild our economy after the coronavirus crisis, we should be investing in industries that will create good jobs right now and provide benefits to the country for decades to come.

• Legacy: Biden understand that we have a basic responsibility to leave a better world for our kids, that’s why he made his climate plan even more ambitious, to move the U.S. to 100% clean energy and invest $2 trillion to scale up clean energy and combat climate change.

… with Trump’s refusal to listen to the experts and fealty to big oil and coal CEOs. The strongest critiques on Trump are the flip side of the strongest positive messages for Biden:

• Experts: Our leaders have a duty to listen to the experts, but Trump ignored warnings from the CDC about coronavirus, and now he’s ignoring scientists, NASA, and military leader when they say climate change is a threat to our kids’ future.

• CEOS/Tax Breaks: Trump gave big oil and coal CEOs huge tax breaks, which let Chevron pay no taxes. Now Trump wants to give them more bailouts, even as he is opposing assistance to American workers.

• Jobs: Trump gave big oil and coal CEOs huge tax breaks, while eliminating incentives for the renewable energy industry and costing almost 20,000 Pennsylvania workers their jobs. 26

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Recommended Language

Pushing back on fracking attacks:Independent fact-checkers say these claims are simply “false,” Joe Biden does not support a ban on fracking. Biden supports common sense safeguards to protect our water from contamination by toxic chemicals (like increasing the minimum distance between fracking sites and homes and requiring the disclosure of all chemicals used in fracking) and investing in clean energy to combat climate change and create 10 million good-paying jobs across the country.

Trump is trying to distract voters from the fact that he eliminated incentives for wind and solar power, making renewable energy more expensive for Pennsylvania families and costing almost 19,000 Pennsylvania clean energy workers their jobs –which is more people than work in natural gas production in the state.

Pushing back on climate attacks:Donald Trump is the same person who called coronavirus and climate change a hoax. Now he wants you to believe that Joe Biden wants to spend $100 trillion and ban airplanes and hamburgers – it's ridiculous. Trump and his oil and coal CEO buddies are trying to stir up controversy to distract us from discussing real solutions – and to protect their own profits.

Instead of using taxpayers’ money to give more bailouts to big oil CEOs – as Trump is doing – Biden has a plan to invest in clean, renewable energy that will create 10 million good-paying jobs for all kinds of workers starting right now while boosting innovation and economic growth, combating climate change, and protecting our kids’ health in the long-term.

Biden understands that our leaders have a duty to listen to our nation's most respected experts – and a responsibility to leave a better world for our children. But Trump ignored warnings from the CDC about the coronavirus. Now, he’s ignoring scientists, NASA, and our military leaders when they say that climate change is a threat to our kids’ future.

Instead of listening to these experts, Trump has put his put his big oil and gas CEO buddies first. He gave them hundreds of billions in tax breaks, which allowed Chevron to pay zero in federal taxes even as they gave their CEO $33 million and laid off thousands of workers, while eliminating tax incentives for wind and solar power, costing almost 20,000 Pennsylvania workers their jobs. 27

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Washington, DCNew York Hartford Chicago Denver Seattle

Thank You

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Appendix

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A majority of independents and more than 1 in 3 Republicans prefer investments in renewable energy over supporting oil and gas

Which statement do you agree with more?

30

60

55

78

61

37

74

64

56

55

40

45

22

39

63

26

36

44

45

Overall

Swing

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Philadelphia County

Rest of Philadelphia DMA

Pittsburgh DMA

Non-Philly/Pitts DMAs

Big oil CEOs have already gotten hundreds of

billions in tax breaks and subsidies from taxpayers;

we don't need to bail these corporate polluters out

again. Instead, we should be investing in renewable

energy like wind and solar because that will create

good-paying jobs in Pennsylvania for all kinds of

workers while boosting economic growth,

combatting climate change, and protecting our kids'

health in the long-term.

The oil and gas industry is critical to the economy

here in Pennsylvania and across America and it has

been devastated by this crisis. We should be

removing unnecessary regulations and providing oil

and gas companies with the support they need to

protect their workers, get back to business, and start

driving economic growth again - not using the crisis

as an excuse to push through socialist climate

change policies.

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BaseBiden/Democrats on all votes

SwingNot locked into to either party

OppoTrump/Republican on all votes

Vote Targets

31

Independent, younger and non-college women are least likely to be locked into one party or the other

• Democrats (73% are base)

• Liberal Democrats (95%)

• White Democrats (86%)

• People of color (66%)

• Philadelphia County (63%)

• Allegheny County (54%)

• Women 55+ (49%)

• Seniors 65+ (48%)

• Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (49%)

• College-educated voters (48%)

• College women (56%)

• Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York

(32% are swing)

• Independents (31%)

• Independent women (37%)

• Women 18-54 (25%)

• Non-college women (25%)

• Republicans (66% are oppo)

• Conservative Republicans (86%)

• White Republicans (70%)

• Republican women (69%)

• Conservative independents (56%)

• Non-DMA Pittsburgh (50%)

• Johnstown/Altoona (48%)

• White voters (38%)

• White men (40%)

• Non-college whites (40%)

• College men (38%)

45 22 33

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32

Philadelphians, independents, and people of color are most likely to be anti-Trump and become more motivated to vote following messaging

Motivation Targets

6

15% are motivation targets

11

14

11

8

10

9

Overall

Philadelphia County

Independents

Independent women

People of color

Women

College women

Women 18-54

Motivation targets are voters who did not vote Trump on the initial or final vote and move higher on the vote

motivation scale. They make up 6% of the electorate.

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Likely 2020 General Electorate

Ethnicity

White 82

African-American 11

Hispanic 4

Asian-American 2

Region

Philadelphia County 13

Rest of Philly DMA 29

Pittsburgh DMA 21

Rest of State 37

Gender

Men 47

Women 53

Age

18-29 year olds 16

30-44 year olds 24

45-54 year olds 16

55-64 year olds 18

Seniors 65+ 26

Education

High school or less 21

Some college 34

4-year college graduate 28

Post-graduate 17

Ideology

Very liberal 14

Somewhat liberal 15

Moderate 37

Somewhat conservative 19

Very conservative 14

33


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