Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin

James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer

NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center

University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering

Climate Science in the Public Interest

1999: Seven salmon Ecologically Sensitive Units (ESUs) are listed as “threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA).

1998 -1999 Washington legislature passed the Salmon Recovery Act created watershed planning process to identify recovery actions

2000: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) convened the Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team (TRT) to develop delisting criteria and provide technical guidance for recovery planning

Background

Local Evidence of Climate Change Declining snowpack

Shifts in timing of runoff

Declining trend on overall runoff volume

Evidence of Climate Change

Seasonal trends – by stationTrends in average daily temperature (1949-2002)

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

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0.4

Ken

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Dar

rin

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n

McM

illi

n

Bu

ckle

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mer

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t

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ar

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Rat

e o

f ch

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deg

rees

(C)

per

dec

ade

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stat

ion

ele

vati

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(m

)

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Trends in total seasonal precipitation (1949-2002)

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Ken

t

Eve

rett

Mo

nro

e

Sta

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p

Sea

Tac

Sn

oq

ual

mie

Lan

dsb

urg

Dar

rin

gto

n

McM

illi

n

Bu

ckle

y

Pal

mer

Mu

dM

t

Ced

ar

Lo

ng

mir

e

Sta

mp

ede

Par

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e

Rat

e o

f ch

ang

e in

mm

per

dec

ade

0

500

1000

1500

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4500

5000

stat

ion

ele

vati

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(m

)

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

stream flow & stream temperature

Land Cover & Land Form

Data

Climate Model(GFDL, Hadley)

Hydrology Model(DHSVM)

air temperature & precipitation

Salmon Pop. Model(SHIRAZ)

Salmon Abundance

PredictedAtmospheric

CO2

Habitat Capacity

2025

2050

2025

2050

Results

Winter stream flows increase

Summer stream flows decrease

Stream temperatures rise

No Change in Land Use20502025

Results

Winter stream flows increase

Summer stream flows decrease

Stream temperatures rise

No Change in Land Use20502025

Results

Winter stream flows increase

Summer stream flows decrease

Stream temperatures rise

No Change in Land Use20502025

Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon

Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon

Conclusions

The projected climate change scenarios have a profoundly negative impact on Snohomish basin Chinook salmon populations.

Restoration efforts can offset some of these impacts

Conclusions

0

2000

4000

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2000 2025 2050

Wild

Sp

aw

ne

rs

No Restoration

Restoration

Totals using GFDL based Climate information

Totals using HadCM3 based Climate information

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2025 2050

Wild

Sp

aw

ne

rsNo Restoration

Restoration

Caveats GFDL is a more extreme climate scenario. Both

models are on the warmer side of the newest IPCC projections.

Timing of climate change is uncertain.

Salmon harvest, hatchery operations, and ocean conditions were all held constant.

Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin

James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer

NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center

University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering

Climate Science in the Public Interest