Climate Resilience Strategy for the Limpopo Basin in ...

Climate Resilience Strategy for the Lower Limpopo Basin: A Water Resource Perspective

PEGASYS Final Report i

Climate Resilience Strategy for the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique

Adaptation to Changing Water Resources

Building Climate Resilience in the Limpopo Basin, Mozambique

Prepared for: CDKN; ARA-Sul Final Draft: March 2016 Attention: Mr. D. Sengo


PEGASYS Final Report ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1. Context: Climate Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique ............................................. 1

1.2. Purpose and Genesis of this Report ............................................................................................... 3

2. Conceptual Background and Methodology ........................................................................................... 5

2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 5

2.2. Assessing Climate Vulnerability ..................................................................................................... 5

2.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation .................................................................................................. 7

2.4. Climate Resilience Strategies ........................................................................................................ 8

2.5. Prioritising Resilience Strategies: No Regrets/Low Regrets ......................................................... 11

3. Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique ............................................................................. 14

4. Priority Strategies ............................................................................................................................... 28

APPENDIX A: Stakeholder Consultation ................................................................................................ 32

APPENDIX B: Review of Resilience Strategies ...................................................................................... 33

APPENDIX C: Sector-Specific Interventions ........................................................................................... 35

C1. Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 35

C2. Water Supply and Sanitation .................................................................................................... 40

C3. Human Safety and Health ........................................................................................................ 45

C4. Built Economic Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 49

C5. Ecosystems and Conservation ................................................................................................. 52

C6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 55

APPENDIX D: Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................ 56

5. Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................................... 56

5.1. Agriculture .................................................................................................................................... 56

5.2. Human Safety and Health ............................................................................................................ 59

5.3. Water Supply and Sanitation ........................................................................................................ 61

5.4. Economic Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 64

5.5. Conservation and Ecosystems ..................................................................................................... 67


PEGASYS Final Report 1

1. Introduction

1.1. Context: Climate Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique

The Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique, which lies in the country’s southern region, is characterised by

climatic extremes. Communities in the basin have long had to contend with climatological extremes of both

droughts and floods, of heavy rainfall and water shortages. Occurrences of wildfires have been reported in

the past in some areas. In the coastal region where the river meets the ocean, land subsidence and coastal

erosion are already significant challenges, as is saltwater intrusion that causes salinization of groundwater

and reduced fertility of soils. Storm surges from tropical cyclones also impact the coastal belt of the basin.

Several recent studies have examined the impact that anthropogenic climate change is likely to have on the

river basin when it overlays on a region already beset by climate variability challenges. What emerges

clearly from these investigations (including ones that integrate climate change modelling using Global

Circulation Models or GCMs) is that climate change will make the impacts associated with climate

variability more intense and more frequent in this region.1 In other words, while the evidence available thus

far does not point to completely new and hitherto unknown phenomena taking place in the Limpopo basin

in Mozambique over the period the strategy is designed for (through mid-century or 2050) due to climate

change, climate change can be expected to markedly exacerbate the climate variability that the region

already struggles with. This includes the full range of extreme weather phenomena, such as torrential

rainfall events, prolonged droughts, widespread wildfires, cyclonic activity, storm surges, and impacts like

sea level rise. There is ever-strengthening evidence that both the intensity and frequency of such climatic

extremes and events will increase to levels not experienced in the past, thereby creating a burden on the

region that is distinct from what communities and authorities in the Mozambican Limpopo basin have dealt

with thus far.

This strategy has been framed in recognition of the fact that the severity, intensity, and frequency of

extreme weather events will increase with climate change. At the same time, it is important to take

account of the fact that the types of impacts that the basin will experience more of are not unknown in the

region. In fact, existing climate variability has familiarized the people of the Limpopo basin in Mozambique

with such events, and has also allowed for the formulation and implementation of several strategies that

address such impacts. Given that the level of impact is likely to increase, the application of existing

strategies to address climate variability also needs to be revisited and such strategies strengthened and

supplemented.

Thus, a study of climate change vulnerability in the basin becomes a study of significantly exacerbated

existing vulnerability to climate variability, with markedly heightened exposure (both in frequency and

severity) and thus far greater risks than what the region has known in the past. This is, in fact, what is

reflected in the climate change vulnerability assessment recently conducted for the Limpopo Basin in

Mozambique, which serves as background for the current report, a Climate Change Resilience Strategy for

the basin.

1 It should be noted that ocean acidification impacts off the coast of the Limpopo basin have not been adequately studied, and are thus excluded from consideration for the purposes of this resilience strategy.



Given that climate change vulnerability in the basin can be viewed as an exaggerated version of

vulnerability to climate variability, and that several contributors of risk are the same for both climate

variability impacts and climate change impacts (for instance, sensitivity of human settlements and

economic activity in the basin to climatic factors), this resilience strategy has a strong focus on

strengthening resilience to climate variability. Thus, it should be regarded as a Climate Resilience Strategy

for the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. The strategy does acknowledge, however, that as the types of

climate impacts associated with variability increase in frequency and intensity, the region is likely to face a

tipping point when the capacity to recover from one or more such events is heavily compromised because

of the compounding effect of ever more frequent and ever more severe events. Existing levels of resilience

to climate variability will not be adequate to ensure resilience to climate change through the mid-century

period, especially if high-emissions scenarios play out. A heightened level of resilience is certainly called for.

The starting point for such heightened resilience, however, need not be measures that have applicability

primarily in high-emissions scenarios or measures that respond to unprecedented impacts that are an order

of magnitude greater than what the region has dealt with thus far. Resilience is built from the ground up, in

an iterative fashion. And thus the priority for a climate resilience strategy should first be to ensure

strengthened resilience to the climate variability impacts that are already occurring, and then use that

foundation to build more climate change-specific resilience through climate-justified interventions.

These future climate-justified interventions do, of course, require critical and strategic conversations to be

initiated early. It is recommended that on the back of this report and when putting in place processes and

institutional arrangements to implement the strategies recommended herein, the government of

Mozambique also consider setting up a broader and more long-term approach to work with other basin-

countries to start collectively thinking about and planning for potentially significant climate change-driven

hydrological shifts basin-wide. Beginning a strategic dialogue with other basin-partners will help both to

strengthen the available knowledge-base about future climate change-driven impacts that vastly exceed

current variability (with research that allows for greater confidence about the actual direction of change),

and to take a more collaborative approach to building adaptive institutions, both nationally and

transnationally.

It is worth noting that the proximate relationship between climate variability and climate change in the

basin has shaped the resilience strategies suggested in this report. While the authors of the report set out

to identify strategies that would build or strengthen resilience to climate change specifically, and while the

mandate for this exercise was to provide guidance on strengthening adaptive capacity to climate change

(particularly future manifestations of climate change), the nature of expected climate change in the basin

within the mid-century timeframe has meant that these resilience strategies are, in effect, strategies to

address and reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extremes in the present and in the immediate

future. So much so, that even in the absence of climate change, these strategies would help make the

Limpopo Basin in Mozambique more resilient against nature’s vagaries and would strengthen development.

These resilience strategies can therefore be regarded as “low regret” strategies within the African Ministers

Council on Water’s (AMCOW’s) Strategic Framework for Water Security and Climate Resilient Development.

The strategies suggested herein could be regarded as a launch-pad for a programme similar to the Water,



Climate, and Development (WACDEP) Programme to commence, investigating how the strategies could be

translated into viable projects and to thereafter proceed with concrete project-preparation.

1.2. Purpose and Genesis of this Report

The objective of the present report is to capture appropriate climate resilience strategies that would benefit the

Limpopo River basin in Mozambique, and to prioritize a list of strategies for the consideration of the

Government of Mozambique. The audience for this report is ARA-Sul, Mozambique’s water resources

management authority. Thus both the scope of the strategy and the areas of emphasis reflect the need for the

strategy to be usable by ARA-Sul.

This report is the culmination of a six-month project aimed at developing a Climate Resilience Strategy for the

Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. This project was undertaken through a two part process – first, a climate change

vulnerability assessment of the Mozambican section of the Limpopo Basin, to better understand areas of high

and medium vulnerability, and second, the development of resilience strategies to target high-priority areas of

vulnerability. It is therefore, envisaged that this strategy report will be read in conjunction with the vulnerability

assessment.

The vulnerability assessment focused on assessing the vulnerability of specific economic sectors within the basin

to climate variability and climate change. The sectors were:

Agriculture

Human Safety and Health

Water Supply and Sanitation

Physical Infrastructure (including energy infrastructure); and

Ecosystems and Conservation.

The assessment identified key climate change related risks to the chosen sectors, and attempted to provide a

differentiated picture of risks and vulnerability in the three main sub-regions within the Limpopo Basin in

Mozambique. These regions were:

(i) an “inland” region that largely coincides with the Changane river catchment (an extremely flat, arid,

and sparsely populated region with only subsistence agriculture, no noteworthy commercial

agriculture, and a region susceptible to tropical cyclones);

(ii) a “western” region that is primarily comprised of the main stem of the Limpopo river in Mozambique (a

region with some highland areas in the upper stretches of the river, a great deal of subsistence

agriculture but also a growing presence of commercial agriculture, several important population

centres, and a region that experiences orographic and convectional rainfall); and

(iii) a “coastal” region that, as the name suggests, comprises the estuarine areas where the river empties

into the ocean (a region with flat, low-lying terrain, wetlands, key population centres including a small

port, and a region susceptible to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion).

It should be noted that the climate vulnerability assessment took a very specific lens when investigating

vulnerability in the basin: a water resources lens. It was a climate vulnerability assessment in the context of

water resources. Thus, the assessment focused on the impacts of climate change on water resources, and

not climate change impacts at large. The reason for this tailored approach was so that it could better serve

the needs of ARA-Sul, the water resources management authority in southern Mozambique, who need to



target the implications of climate change for the resource they are tasked with managing, i.e. water. This is

not intended to be a national or even regional climate change adaptation strategy for Mozambique, and

the target audience for this strategy is not the competent national climate change authority or department.

It should be noted that this report is intended to serve as a first strategic step for ARA-Sul to consider the

implications of climate change in the Limpopo basin within its jurisdiction. Further steps are, of course,

critical. ARA-Sul should liaise with the national government and the other ARAs in Mozambique to put in

place institutional arrangements that would more explicitly and continually enable the ARAs to engage with

climate change, and to mainstream it into their work. This discussion should also be aligned with the

national government’s efforts to integrate and operationalize the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in

Mozambique, and to catalyze a more holistic approach to water resources management, such as one that

recognizes the food-energy-water nexus and relfects the same in planning and operations of the ARAs. In

terms of the SDGs, water is explicitly connected to goals 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15, and

implicitly relevant to goals 4, 5, 16, and 17. While this report cannot be transformed into a vehicle to

discuss climate change mainstreaming by the national government of Mozambique and a national-level

approach to aligning SDG implementation with water resources in the context of climate change, it does

acknowledge the strategic imperative of a more integrated approach, both for individual ARAs, and the

national government as a whole.

Since this resilience strategy report flows from the climate vulnerability assessment, it will adopt a similar

approach. It will discuss sector-specific strategies, and then pull out priority strategies overall. In keeping

with the thematic focus, it will examine resilience strategies pertinent to water resources. Where

applicable, it will also hone in on strategies that are particularly relevant to one or more geographic sub-

region (although most strategies are, by their nature, beneficial to the basin as a whole).

At this juncture, the report is intended for final consideration and endorsement by key stakeholders in

Mozambique (and already incorporates initial feedback from ARA-Sul and reflects several of the changes

suggested by expert reviewers). After a final round of stakeholder engagement, the strategy will be

finalized by the end of April 2016.

The final climate resilience strategy report is intended to help inform ARA-Sul, other consultants, and interested

stakeholders and decision makers in the water resources sector in Mozambique about the range of potential

options available to enhance resilience of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique to climate variability and climate

change.



Exposure

This is the measure of the magnitude and

extent (i.e. temporal and spatial) of the

climate related aspects that will impact a

system at a certain location (i.e. it is a

function of geography). It refers to the

extent to which a given system will be

subject to or come into contact with a

climate change impact, such as an increase

in temperatures or a change in rainfall

patterns.

Sensitivity

This is the inherent qualities of a system

that make it susceptible to changes in

climate aspects. It refers to the degree to

which a system is likely to respond when

exposed to a climate induced stress.

Therefore, if a system is modified as a

result of changes in climatic aspects, it is

considered sensitive to climate change.

Adaptive Capacity

This is the ability of a system to adapt to the

impacts, cope with the consequences,

minimise potential damages, or to take

advantage of opportunities offered by

climate change or climate variability. One of

the most important factors shaping the

adaptive capacity of individuals, households

and communities is their access to and

control over natural, human, social,

physical, and financial resources.

Exposure

This is the measure of the magnitude and

extent (i.e. temporal and spatial) of the

climate related aspects that will impact a

system at a certain location (i.e. it is a

function of geography). It refers to the

extent to which a given system will be

subject to or come into contact with a

climate change impact, such as an increase

in temperatures or a change in rainfall

patterns.

Sensitivity

This is an assessment of the inherent

qualities of a system that make it

susceptible to changes in climate aspects. It

refers to the degree to which a system is

likely to respond when exposed to a climate

induced stress. Therefore, if a system is

modified as a result of changes in climatic

aspects, it is considered sensitive to climate

change.

Adaptive Capacity

This is the ability of a system to adapt to the

impacts, cope with the consequences,

minimise potential damages, or to take

advantage of opportunities offered by

climate change or climate variability. One of

the most important factors shaping the

adaptive capacity of individuals, households

and communities is their access to and

control over natural, human, social,

physical, and financial resources.

2. Conceptual Background and Methodology

2.1. Introduction

This chapter provides an overview of the methodology employed for the development of climate resilience

strategies. It initially lays out the conceptual underpinnings of climate change risk, vulnerability, and

adaptive capacity. Thereafter, it briefly highlights dual approaches for climate resilience, namely mitigation

(i.e. reducing emissions that drive climate change, thereby directly reducing the risk being faced) and

adaptation (i.e. coping with the impacts of climate, to respond better and reduce negative consequences).

2.2. Assessing Climate Vulnerability

As climate variability continues to impact the population and other systems along the basin, it is essential

for decision makers to gain a strong comprehension of what makes certain sectors vulnerable to climate

impacts. This is particularly true in the long-term, where the projected impacts are likely to increase due to

climate change.

The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us better comprehend the cause/effect relationships

behind climate change and its impact on people, economic sectors and socio-ecological systems.2 The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change vulnerability as the degree to

which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including

climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate

change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.3

Climate vulnerability assessments have some key components, each of which have a specific relationship

with the other components. Although these elements are defined differently depending on the source, the

core essence of the components is provided in Figure 1 below:

Figure 1: Components of a Vulnerability Assessment (Text adapted from CDKN and ARA-Sul, 2015)

To effectively assess vulnerability, we must understand the dynamic nature of climatic factors, human

activity or any conditions that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss

2 GIZ, 2014. The Vulnerability Sourcebook: Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments 3 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment



of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.4 A vulnerability

assessment provides the process for assessing, measuring, and/or characterizing the exposure, sensitivity,

and adaptive capacity of a natural or human system to disturbance.5

As prescribed by the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), in a vulnerability assessment, the

combination of exposure and sensitivity amount to the potential climate “risk” to the system. This implies

that the exposure of a system to a specific climatic process, as well as how sensitive that system is to that

exposure, defines the level of risk. Merely because a sector or sub-sector (or any entity or system) is

exposed to climate change, it does not automatically qualify as being at risk of potential impacts. If the

sensitivity to climate is low, then the risk is moderated. Similarly, if something is sensitive to changes in

climate but not exposed to climate change, then risk is low as well.6

In the same vein, merely because a sector or sub-sector (or any entity or system) faces a risk of climate

impacts, this does not automatically make it vulnerable. Vulnerability to climate risk is also a function the

system’s adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity recognizes that human and ecological systems have some

capacity to respond to the climate effects, and that such coping capacity needs to be considered in

determining vulnerability.7

In other words, the ability of a system to adapt to climate risk can determine how vulnerable it is to the risk

(adaptive capacity includes the option of and ability to do something different to avoid risk altogether). The

greater the adaptive capacity (regardless of the magnitude of the risk), the lower the vulnerability of the

system. Similarly, a low adaptive capacity results in a high vulnerability, but only in instances when the risk is

established. This relationship is illustrated in Figure 2 below.

High Adaptive Capacity + High/Low Risk Low Adaptive Capacity + High Risk Low Adaptive Capacity + Low Risk

= Low Vulnerability = High Vulnerability = Low Vulnerability

Figure 2: Relationship between Adaptive Capacity, Risk and Vulnerability.

In order to determine the adaptive capacity of a system, various methodologies are used.8 Current adaptive

capacity is often estimated based on proven historical ability to cope with the climate aspects in question,

while future adaptive capacity is assessed through proxies such as levels of education and income, effective

programs that have been implemented, and policies being put in place to help the sector cope with climate

changes in a positive manner. While the current strategy is tailored towards ARA-Sul’s mandate in water

4 CARE, 2009. Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) Handbook. 5 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment 6 It should be noted that the conceptual framing of risk and vulnerability evolved from the IPCC’s AR4 to AR5. While AR4 uses the concepts of sensitivity and adaptive capacity to describe the moderating attributes of the system, AR5 uses the concept of exposure (the presence of a system in places that could be adversely affected) and vulnerability (predisposition to be adversely affected). In effect, the AR5 approach uses a stronger Disaster Risk Reduction lens. In AR5, the harm to the system is the impact, or the risk, while in AR4 the harm is more closely tied to the vulnerability. 7 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment 8 One particularly useful source that integrates over 40 variables of climate change vulnerability is the University of Notre Dame GAIN Index: http://index.nd-gain.org

Adaptive

Capacity

Adaptive

Capacity

Risk Adaptive

Capacity Risk

Risk Adaptive

Capacity

Adaptive

Capacity

Risk Adaptive

Capacity Risk

http://index.nd-gain.org/



resources management, it is strongly recommended that the government of Mozambique adopt a cross-

sectoral, integrated approach towards building climate resilience, and mainstream climate change

resilience into economic development planning. More broad-based resilience through increased education,

income, and access to services is critical; without such an effort, these recommended strategies in the

water sector will not bring about the required climate resilience.

To summarise the above discussion, a vulnerability assessment helps one understand exposure to current

and future climate, sensitivity of the environment to climatic factors, as well as the adaptive capacity of the

impacted system being investigated.

A typical approach for the determination climate change vulnerability is depicted in Figure 3.

This approach is closely aligned with the concepts

and guidance provided in the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fourth

Assessment Report (2007) and GIZ’s Vulnerability

Sourcebook: Concept and Guidelines for

Standardised Vulnerability Assessments (2014).9

To enable the implementation of the approach

portrayed in Figure 3, a formula is adopted, as

shown below.

As proposed by GIZ, the formula incorporates the calculation of risk. Adaptive capacity is then subtracted

from the risk, and only then is the vulnerability determined. In summary, this conceptual framework

includes the key components of climate change vulnerability, i.e. exposure and sensitivity, which combine

to produce “risk”, which are then be combined with adaptive capacity to determine a level of vulnerability.

2.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation

The methodology provided above describes the approach to determining vulnerability. This is crucial for

determining which sectors require aggressive measures to respond to current and future climate variability

and future climate change. These response measures typically take the form of climate change adaptation,

i.e. measures to increase adaptive capacity and thus cope better with the impacts of climate change (i.e.

the risks).

9 GIZ, 2014. The Vulnerability Sourcebook: Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments

Risk

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Figure 3: Elements of Watershed Vulnerability Assessment (Adapted from Nelitz M et al., 2013)

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Risk

Sensitivity Exposure

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Risk

Sensitivity Exposure



However, climate change mitigation is also a way to respond to climate change impacts, or to reduce the

exposure of any sector. The best cure for a problem is to avoid it or reduce its likelihood in the first place.

Since anthropogenic climate change is driven by emissions of global warming agents (mainly gases from

carbon-based fuel combustion), measures to respond to climate risks could focus on reducing Greenhouse

Gas Emissions (GHGs), thereby minimizing the severity of climate change (i.e. climate mitigation).

To enable readers to understand the difference between the two concepts (i.e. mitigating climate change

or adapting to climate change), it is essential to provide a brief description of what the two concepts entail.

This is provided in Figure 4 below.

Figure 4: Climate Mitigation and Climate Adaptation (Source: Adapted from IPCC Glossary, 4th Assessment Report)

A key distinction between the two concepts is that mitigation focuses on reducing or preventing GHG

emissions, while adaptation focuses on adapting to the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

In the case of the current project, we are focused climate change adaptation. Resilience strategies

developed and described in this report are aimed at building or strengthening adaptive capacity. Mitigation

is not within the scope of the current project (and is not currently a strategic priority for Mozambique,

given its marginal contribution to global GHG emissions). However, it is important to note that mitigation

can go hand-in-hand with climate change adaptation. Many adaptation actions can in fact contribute to

climate change mitigation -- for instance, hydroelectric power that contributes low carbon energy while

also providing energy security and potentially in sync with a water storage facility.10 Similarly, reforestation

and catchment management, which improves flows, and also contributes to carbon sequestration. If the

strategies recommended herein proceed to a project-preparation stage, it would be optimal to investigate

the integration of mitigation into the projects as well.

2.4. Climate Resilience Strategies

The vulnerability assessment conducted an investigation into five sectors in the Limpopo Basin (as

illustrated below). The approach identified in Section 2.2 was applied during the assessment, and the

10 It shouldbe noted, however, that a hydroelectric project could also negatively affect climate change vulnerability. For instance, releases of water for power generation can increase vulnerability during droughts. Moreover, countries that have a very high reliance on hydropower may find that climate change elevates energy insecurity due to less reliable or consistent future river flows.

Climate Mitigation

Mitigation refers to measures that reduce or prevent

emissions. These include technological changes and

substitutions that reduce resource inputs and emissions per

unit of output. Governance measures, such as introducing and

implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance

sinks can also be considered as mitigation measures.

Therefore, mitigation can mean using new technologies (such

as renewable energy), improving energy efficiency, changing

consumer behaviour and management practices.

Climate Adaptation

Adaption refers to adapting to life in a changing climate. This

includes initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of

natural and human systems against actual or expected climate

change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g.

anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous

and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes (to

prevent flooding or sea level encroachment), the substitution

of more temperature shock resistant plants for sensitive ones

(to promote agriculture resilience), etc.



outcome was an understanding of which sectors have comparatively high vulnerability in each geographic

sub-region (relative to each other; while all sectors are vulnerable, some are more so than others).

Vulnerability was assessed against various current and future climate related factors (as shown below),

through a water resources lens. As the manner in which climate change manifests includes both first order

and second order impacts, the vulnerability assessment incorporated first order exposure (such as changes

in rainfall or temperature) and second order exposure (such as changes in water resource availability or

changes in the frequency of floods or droughts).

For each of the factors, the vulnerability of the sector (in each region) was assessed. This also included and

assessment of how the vulnerability of the sector would be impacted by future changes in these climate

factors. Note that sea level rise was approached as a primary climatic factor or indicator.

A key finding of the vulnerability assessment was that all the sectors are currently impacted by climate

variability, and all are vulnerable to exacerbated future climate variability (driven by climate change). While

the degree of vulnerability differs slightly from sector to sector, it was determined that all sectors would

benefit from climate resilience strategies.

2.4.1. Key Concepts in Climate Change Adaptation

This resilience strategy proposes several measures for building resilience in the Limpopo Basin. These

strategies are aimed at either reducing exposure to the primary driver of climate risks (i.e. the climatic

factors), or on reducing the effects of these climatic factors on the sectors.

Put differently, measures could be aimed at reducing vulnerability of the sectors by either decreasing the

exposure or decreasing the sensitivity of the sectors. Reducing either of these is a means of enhancing

adaptation, as is increasing the actual ability to cope with change (i.e. strengthening adaptive capacity,

regardless of change in exposure or sensitivity).

The two types of measures are discussed in detail below:

Measures to reduce the exposure to climate aspects include:

o Institutional interventions such as policy instruments or strategic approaches that improve

the management and flexibility of decision making around water resources;

o Physical approaches such as infrastructure or technical solutions associated with water

resources infrastructure development to store or manage water resources;

Water Supply and

Sanitation

Domestic drinking water

supply

Industrial / commercial

water supply

Water infrastructure

Human Safety

Health

Disasters

Human settlements

Linear Infrastructure

ICT (information &

communications

technology)

Roads & transportation

Electricity supply & access

Conservation and

Ecosystems

Biodiversity and natural

capital (ecosystems)

Ecosystem function

Tourism and wildlife

conservation

Agriculture

Subsistence agriculture

and food security

Commercial agriculture

(incl. irrigation)

Water

Availability

Climatic

Factors

Flood

Events

Drought

Periods



o Natural approaches such as ecosystem approaches that provide assimilation or attenuation

of water flows and quality; and

o Monitoring systems focused on measuring, monitoring and evaluation, such as early

warning systems and information collection/sharing platforms

Note that while it is extremely challenging to alter exposure to first-order impacts, it is possible to alter

exposure to second-order climate impacts. In other words, through appropriate strategies we can reduce

the impacts of climate through water resources, by adopting water resources management techniques.

Measures to reduce the sensitivity of the sectors include:

o Socio-economic approaches focused on improving social resilience, such as improving

education levels, promoting income security, providing alternative livelihoods or different

crops in the basin or elsewhere in Mozambique through economic growth and

employment, and/or improving knowledge of climate risks;

Physical approaches such as irrigation infrastructure, household water storage solutions,

land management, and green infrastructure;11 and

o Institutional (governance) approaches such as land-use planning approaches, water

allocations and variable assurance of supply, farmer-based organisations, extension

services, and improving institutional capacity. This also includes financial mechanisms such

as insurance, low-interest loans or access to credit.

It should be noted that the above framework is helpful to conceptually define and categorise various

adaptation approaches. It provides guidance on the range of adaptation measures and strategies that have

been investigated for the development of this resilience strategy report, but is not indicative of the

strategies finally chosen for discussion and prioritisation herein.

It is important to remember that the above listed measures are often only effective when applied

simultaneously. For example, implementing a physical approach such as building a dam requires effective

(but site and project-appropriate) monitoring systems to monitor rainfall patterns and water flow, and to

optimise operations accordingly. Similarly, implementing monitoring systems such as early warning systems

requires effective institutions to ensure the effective operation and maintenance of the systems and timely

dissemination of the warnings to the relevant parties.

2.4.2. Implementation Scale: National Level v. Provincial Level v. Basin Level

Resilience strategies can be implemented at various geographic scales. Depending on the distribution of

powers between central, provincial, and local governments, the responsibility for implementation of any

given strategy could fall within the purview of each of these levels of government. Many a time, the same

strategy could be implemented at a national, provincial, or local level.

While the geographic focus of this report is the Limpopo river basin in Mozambique, adaptation strategies

that would strengthen resilience in the basin are not exclusively strategies that apply or are implemented at

11 While the impact of climate change on infrastructure contributes to risk (through the exposure of such infrastructure and consequent damage), building appropriate infrastructure in a climate resilient manner could contribute to adaptive capacity, thereby lowering climate risk.



the basin level. Those within the basin cannot necessarily build resilience for themselves without support of

and implementation by national level agencies.

The very concept of broad-based resilience – which is a priority for the Limpopo basin but also for other

parts of Mozambique – is such that development-oriented resilience strategies could easily be applicable to

other areas as well. Merely because a strategy is also applicable in other regions of Mozambique or even

other countries and regions does not mean it is not an appropriate strategy for the Mozambican Limpopo

basin. In fact, strategies that are applicable elsewhere and have a broader relevance are those that merit

special attention, because these strategies can bring dividends beyond just one narrow spatial unit, and

likely have proven effective in other similar regions.

This strategy report examines each of the recommended strategies to identify whether it would be a

national level strategy (for instance, only a national government is empowered to decide and proceed with

the building of a dam, whereas a province in Mozambique cannot independently decide to build a dam and

implement the project without national sanction) or a strategy that could be implemented by the two

provinces that are home to the Limpopo basin in Mozambique – Gaza and Inhambane.

2.4.3. Literature Review of Relevant Strategies

The strategies in this report have been developed with an understanding of governance processes and

institutional frameworks in Mozambique in relation to climate adaptation (such as existing plans and

policies within various departments).

To develop this understanding, the project undertook a literature review of existing (traditional and

modern) adaptation priorities as identified by the Government of Mozambique and all relevant institutions

in Mozambique. In addition, adaptation measures identified by the Southern Africa Development

Community (SADC) and the Limpopo Basin Commission (LIMCOM) have also been reviewed. An exploration

of best-practice in international river basins (such as the Nile River, Volta Basin and Murray Darling) as well

as water resource best-practice guides (such as the approach proposed by the UNDP or InWent) has also

been conducted.

This literature review enabled the identification of innovative and cost-effective measures that can be

implemented to reduce the vulnerability of sectors in the basin (see sources listed in Appendix B).

2.5. Prioritising Resilience Strategies: No Regrets/Low Regrets

Improved water management can benefit many sectors (e.g. health, energy, agriculture and environment)

while also contributing to development goals, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction,

particularly floods and drought related disasters.12 In light of this, strategies, plans and investments that

promote sound water resources management are a cost-effective way of delivering both immediate

development benefits, contributing to SDGs, and of building resilience to longer term climate change.13

12 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW). 13 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW).



In choosing priority strategies for the Government of Mozambique to consider for building resilience in the

Limpopo basin, it was deemed important to select strategies that are either low-cost and easy to

implement, or strategies that are either win-win or no/low regret investment options (i.e. where the

investment in the project will result in benefits regardless of the extent of climate change, and would not

cause detriment).

While the uncertainty over the scale and frequency of climate change impacts should influence how

adaptation measures are prioritized and applied, uncertainty over the impact of climate change should not

stand in the way of taking immediate steps to improve climate resilience. An approach that aims to

produce decisions that governments will not regret, no matter how the future turns out is sometimes

referred to as Robust Decision Making (RDM). These decisions give priority to no regret or low regret

investments since these would be the right choice, whether or not the predicted climate change takes place

or the extent to which it takes place. Some of the benefits of the approach include:

It can be applied to plans, policies and projects already in place, or being developed, to meet

national economic growth and anti-poverty aims.

It accepts the future uncertainty as a fact, but instead of attempting predictions and the estimation

of probabilities, uses a different logic. It asks what future conditions would render the investment

vulnerable, and seeks to bolster the investment against those eventualities.

It reaches decisions that perform well over a range of plausible futures, even though they may not

be the best for any specific future state.

It can be applied to both ‘hard’ investments in infrastructure and equipment, as well as ‘soft’

investments entailing such as changes in policies and procedures, research and capacity building.14

Options that are known as ‘no regrets’ and ‘low regrets’ provide benefits under a broad range of climate

change scenarios, although they may not be optimal for every future scenario, and are recommended when

uncertainties over future climate change directions and impacts are high.15 These ‘low regrets’ adaptation

options typically include improvements to coping strategies or reductions in exposure to known threats.16

No/low regret investments can consist of: (i) modifications to existing water assets, systems and

infrastructure, (ii) pursuing current development investments, again, modified as necessary if this can be

done cost-effectively, and (iii) building capacity to adapt through investments in information, research,

education, and piloting (all of which will create greater awareness and resilience in future). 17 Low regrets

can also include better forecasting and warning systems, use of climate information to better manage

agriculture in drought-prone regions, flood-proofing of homesteads, or interventions to ensure up-to-date

climatic design information for engineering projects. 18

No/low regrets investments should also consider alternative, and more sustainable means, of achieving a

development outcome, such as the use of land management incentives and pollution control rather than

14 GWP, 2012b. Managing Risks and Making Robust Decisions for Development. Policy Brief No. 4. Investing in water security for climate resilient growth and development 15 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. 16 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. 17 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW). 18 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.



costly and inadaptable infrastructure.19 No/low regrets investments have the key characteristic of

delivering benefits under almost any future climate scenario and building confidence in the long term

sustainability of development activities. Fast-tracking these investments allows action to be put in place

now, despite the large uncertainties in the future climate. 20

Thus, investments in resilience-building should ideally not be “climate-justified” or be contingent on the

emergence of very specific frequency or intensity of climate change impacts. Optimal resilience strategies

should – even in the absence of any potential climate change – at a minimum provide greater resilience

against current climate variability. Moreover, they should strengthen development and growth in the

present day, and meet current needs, even as they strengthen capacity to address future risks.

19 GWP, 2012b. Managing Risks and Making Robust Decisions for Development. Policy Brief No. 4. Investing in water security for climate resilient growth and development 20 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW).



3. Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique

In hydrological assessments it is important to consider the entire basin due to the interconnectivity of the

hydrological systems. In the context of this study, this means that upstream Limpopo Basin hydro-climatic

processes, and anthropogenic factors, have impacts on downstream portion of the basin. Therefore, for this

assessment the entire Limpopo Basin will be considered. The core of this report will, however, focus on the

Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique. This portion of the Limpopo Basin is sometimes referred to as the

Lower Limpopo Basin, since it is the downstream riparian region. However, in some technical literature the

Lower Limpopo Basin is also a sub-basin of the Limpopo Basin that extends across multiple countries. This

often creates a confusion when reading literature on the Limpopo Basin. To avoid this confusion, this

document will refer to the region in question as the “Mozambican Limpopo Basin,” or the “Limpopo Basin in

Mozambique.”

The Limpopo River is a transboundary river in Southern Africa. Originating in South Africa, it passes through

Botswana and Zimbabwe, before it enters Mozambique. The Mozambican section of the river basin

comprises the main stem of the Limpopo River, the Changane River catchment, the Olifants River

catchment, as well as the estuary. The river enters the Indian Ocean south of Xai-Xai. Figure 5 below

illustrates the location of the Limpopo Basin.

Figure 5: Location of the Limpopo River Basin. Figure A Illustrates the Sub-Basins of the Limpopo River Basin

(Source: LIMCOM, 2013) and Figure B Illustrates the Location of the Limpopo River Basin in Africa.

In Mozambique, the Limpopo River Basin straddles the Gaza and Inhambane provinces, and is home to

several population centres. These include the cities of Chokwe, Xai Xai, Bilene, Guija, and Chibuto, amongst

others. Communities residing in the Basin depend on the river, and the natural systems it supports, for

their livelihood and well-being. However, they are also susceptible to variances of the river’s flow and its

propensity for major flooding. In recent years, floods on the Limpopo River Basin have been one of the

most destructive disasters experienced in Mozambique, taking an immense human and economic toll. At

the same time, the Basin is also prone to intermittent drought, leading to failed harvests on parched



farmland and loss of livestock, as well as acute water stress for local communities. Productivity of land in

the region is extremely low, largely due to the lack of adequate water resources during the dry season.

Industrial activity is negligible, straitjacketed by unpredictable and uneven access to water.

Those living in the Basin have coped thus far with the river’s tendency to flood after heavy rainfall and dry

out during times of drought, although these extremes are likely to have played an important role in

trapping the population in poverty and limiting growth. The current levels of economic activity that are

impacted by the variability may not be able to adequately support a rapidly growing population. As

Mozambique’s economy is growing, the government intends to harness this economic momentum to pull

communities in the Limpopo Basin out of poverty. Such a development imperative cannot be achieved

without more reliable access to water resources, and a greater level of protection from significant

variability in the Basin’s water resources.

As the government of Mozambique sets about its task to reduce poverty and spur economic development

in the Limpopo Basin, it must contend with the growing spectre of climate change. While inter-seasonal and

inter-annual climate variability already poses a challenge to economic stability and growth in the Basin,

climate change is expected to significantly exacerbate this challenge. The impacts of climate change could

negate Mozambique’s hard-won development gains, and could propel communities in the Basin further

into a spiral of deprivation and impoverishment.

Hydro-climatic Zones in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique

In the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, three broad hydro-climatic processes are prevalent: cyclonic rainfall

in an arid region (with pluvial flooding); convectional rainfall and orographic rainfall in a semi-arid region

(and fluvial flooding influenced by upstream processes);

and a semi-tropical coastal drainage region with both

convectional and cyclonic rainfall, plus storm surge-

related flooding. On the basis of these somewhat distinct

elements, the basin can be sub-divided into three

corresponding broad regions. These three regions can be

referred to as the inland, coastal and western region, and

are described below (and are illustrated by the white

boundary shown in Figure 6).

The inland region is comprised of the Changane

Sub-Catchment. It is an arid region that is also

exposed to cyclonic activity during the spring and

summer seasons, resulting in pluvial flooding (i.e.

flooding caused by heavy rainfall events).

The western region is the downstream portion of the main stem of the Limpopo River. It is

comprised of the Mozambican parts of the Mwenezi, Luvuvhu, Shingwedzi and Lower Olifants Sub-

Catchments. In addition, it also includes the Lower Limpopo and Lower-Middle Limpopo Sub-

Catchments, excluding the portion where the Changane Sub-Catchment joins the main stem of the

Figure 6: The Three Regions of the

Lower Limpopo Basin



Limpopo River. It is a semi-arid region that is also exposed to high-rainfall events during spring and

summer seasons, resulting in fluvial flooding (i.e. flooding caused by river(s) overflowing).

The coastal region is the portion of the basin where the Changane River joins the Limpopo River,

and also incorporates the portion where the Limpopo River drains into the Indian Ocean. It is a

tropical region that is also exposed to coastal storm surges and saltwater intrusion.

As described above, each of the three identified regions have different hydro-climatic processes which

influence the water resources distinctly. Impacts of climate change on water resources will therefore

manifest a little differently in each of regions. Consequently, major water users (or sectors) in each of the

regions will likely be impacted differently by the changes in water resources, at least with respect to certain

types of climatic events. This allows for the possibility that the climate change vulnerability of each sector

could differ from region to region, depending on where it is located. This assessment will therefore

examine the climate change vulnerability of each of the major sectors in each of the three regions – inland,

western, and coastal.

Climate change exposure in each of the three sub-regions applies to all the sectors (since climate change

and its manifestation in water resources won’t differ sector-by-sector in any one given region). However,

for each sector, this report provides a differentiated picture of sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and thus

vulnerability - in each of the three sub-regions. Such distinctions, however minor, may allow a greater

degree of direction regarding the appropriate adaptation measures and resilience strategies applicable in

different parts of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique.

3.1.1. Climate of the Basin

In Mozambique, there is a very clear annual variation in the amount of rainfall, with a rainy and hot season,

lasting from October to April, and a dry and cooler season, from May to September. The ITCZ starts to move

south over the country during October, and during the peak of the rainy season it is in its most southerly

position (approximately 19°S) during January to February. During January to March the ITCZ becomes more

active over the country.21 The rainy season is thus mainly a function of the southern migration of the ITCZ

and corresponds to the warmest months of the year.22

The Limpopo River Basin is located in southern Mozambique. This southern region of Mozambique is mainly

semi-arid, and has a relatively narrow coastal plain and a sandy coastline.23 In this region, inter-annual

variability in wet-season rainfall is very high. This variability causes severe stress on many sectors across the

country. Floods and droughts are common occurrences in the central and southern regions, often occurring

during the same year.24

Observed climate change trends in Mozambique suggest temperatures have already begun increasing, and

projections indicate a clear and sustained rise in future temperatures. At the country level, climate models 21 Tadross M, 2009. Climate change modelling and analyses for Mozambique. Final report detailing the support provided to the G adaptation to climate change project 22 World Bank and GFDRR, 2011. Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile: Mozambique. 23 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 24 GFDRR, 2011. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile: Mozambique. Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change.



provide slightly less clarity regarding changes in precipitation. While there is no statistically significant

indication that overall rainfall volumes will increase or decrease substantially, there is an expectation that

more rainfall will fall in heavy rainfall events, and that some parts of the country could receive greater

volumes of annual rainfall. However, any increase in rainfall is likely to be offset by higher rates of

evaporation, due to warmer temperatures. In fact, climate models suggest that droughts could be more

prolonged or intense in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, even if not more frequent. Sea levels are

expected to rise, leading to more coastal inundation and saltwater intrusion in low-lying areas. Cyclonic

rainfall is also expected to increase, with greater potential for storm surges.

Current and future climate trends can be slightly differentiated at the sub regional level:

Figure 7: The Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin

3.1.2. Water Resources of the Basin

The river is perennial, but experiences inter-seasonal variability. During the summer rainfall periods, the

river experiences high flow, often resulting in floods, and low flows during the dry winter season, mostly

due to rainfall scarcity / droughts and upstream abstractions.

A large part of the Limpopo Basin is threatened by water scarcity.25 This is due to the catchment

experiencing inconsistent water availability and the over allocation of water resources, resulting in

challenges in meeting water needs throughout the year. Of particular influence in dry periods are the

alluvial aquifers associated with the Limpopo River, which are highly susceptible to over exploitation. In

Zimbabwe, for example, the water resources supplied by the river are already recognised as unreliable due

to climate variability, so groundwater is often relied upon.26

For the Limpopo Basin, river flows are projected to increase with climate change. However, due to sharply

increasing water use and extraction, actual availability of surface water is projected to decline significantly.

25 LIMCOM, 2013. Limpopo River Basin Monograph Study. Limpopo Watercourse Commission. 26 INGC, 2012. Understanding the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the development of a climate proofing strategy in the Limpopo river basin, Mozambique.

The inland region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic activity (with intense rainfall events). This will potentially result in an increase in the risk to flooding during the summer season. Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. The western region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding. Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet seasons.

The coastal region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events and cyclonic activity. This is expected to result in an increase in the risk of coastal flooding. In addition, changes in oceanic processes are likely to lead to an increase in storm surges, sea level rise and saltwater intrusion.



As some regions in the transboundary basin are currently under-developed, water shortages present a

challenge for the long-term development agenda. In the face of a changing climate future, upstream

development will pose concerns for the downstream water resource availability of sufficient quality and

quantity to meet development needs. In the Mozambique portion of the basin, inter-seasonal variability is

projected, resulting in periods of floods and droughts.

Ground water resources are already being depleted. Population pressure is likely to create additional water

stress. However, climate change could alleviate some of the stress if greater volumes of rainfall result in

greater recharge, provided that that rainfall intensity is not too high. Unfortunately, there is not enough

clarity on future groundwater trends to conclude whether a dryer future could lead to acute groundwater

shortages or whether a wetter future could lead to greater recharge.

The rivers of Southern Mozambique are characterized by long, wide floodplains which are highly

susceptible to saltwater intrusion.27 Saltwater intrusion is presently a problem in the Limpopo River as

there are large developments in irrigation, and high levels of water extraction. Vast areas of southern

Mozambique suffer from degradation of land caused by salt water intrusion.28 Salt water intrusion is likely

to affect the lower Limpopo Basin as far as 29-30 km inland by 2030, over an area as large as 83 km2.29

In the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, there are mixed results regarding groundwater resources. Near the

main stem of the Limpopo River, shallow aquifers are influenced by the river and are valuable sources of

water. Further away from the main channel, in more remote areas of the Gaza Province, boreholes go

down fairly deep (down to +90m) and groundwater is often saline, a result of the marine origin of the

sedimentary rocks. This makes further exploitation of this water unfeasible. 30

Water quality concerns already plague both surface and ground water resources in the basin, and this is

likely to be accentuated by climate change, particularly if overall water availability declines. On the whole,

with a changing climate, water availability is predicted to decrease and become more erratic in the

Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more common,

aggravating the condition of already degraded land through increased runoff and flooding. These climate-

induced hazards could exacerbate socio-economic problems and reduce the overall livelihood security of

those living within the basin.31

Minor differentiation is feasible between the sub-regions studied in this assessment:

27 INGC, 2009. Synthesis Report (First Draft): Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 28 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 29 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 30 Petrie, B., et al., R., 2014. Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin System: Climate change, water and biodiversity – A synthesis. For the USAI D Southern Africa “Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin” (RESILIM) Program. OneWorld Sustainable Investments, Cape Town. 31 INGC, 2012. Understanding the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the development of a climate proofing strategy in the Limpopo river basin, Mozambique.



Figure 8: The Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin

As some regions in the transboundary basin are currently under-developed, water shortages present a

challenge for long-term development agendas. In the face of a changing climate future, upstream

development will pose concerns for the downstream water resource availability of sufficient quality and

quantity to meet development needs. Therefore, water resource planning has to consider the long-term

projections in water use as well as water resource development in upstream countries.

For the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, the impact of these upstream development futures will be more

significant in a drier future than in a wetter future, with Mozambique’s development potentially

constrained by the lack of available water for agriculture and industry.

3.1.3. Socio-Economic Vulnerability in Mozambique’s Limpopo Basin

The population of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is estimated at 1.1 million people (as illustrated in

Table 8). This accounts for more than 8% of the total population of Mozambique. 15% of the population in

the Mozambique portion of the basin resides in urban areas, while 85% live in sparsely located rural areas.

The basin is characterised by urban centres at Chokwe and Xai-Xai and an extensive rural population

The population relies on rain-fed agriculture, as well as fishing in the estuary. Because of high poverty rates

and lack of infrastructure, the population is unable to cope with any adverse effects of climate change.32

According to Manjate (2009), the impact of climate variability on the population is already substantial, such

as straining food security due to reduction or failure of agricultural production; reducing peoples’ livelihood

assets, including housing, education centres, health provision, access to water and sanitation supply and

road infrastructure; harm to the work force through climate related diseases; and reducing income

opportunities. This suggests that even though local communities are familiar with the impacts of climate

variability, the adaptive capacity of populations across the Mozambican Limpopo Basin to variability (and

by extension to more dramatic climate change) is low.

32 LIMCOM, 2013. Limpopo River Basin Monograph Study. Limpopo Watercourse Commission.

The inland region is an arid region, with highly seasonal water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts).

The western region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability, frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition, although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and quality of water resources.

The coastal region suffers from salt water intrusion, which impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise.



Land ownership is comprised of small-holdings, and most households do not have notable savings, access

to capital, or productive inputs. Homes are built with low quality materials. Poverty is compounded by

pervasive malnutrition and food insecurity. Access to adequate healthcare, potable water, and sanitation

remains low. HIV-AIDS has contributed to low life expectancy and overall low levels of human capacity.

Educational levels have improved in recent years and a fair proportion of the population has access to and

has completed basic education.

The impact of climate variability on the population is already substantial, such as straining food security due

to reduction or failure of agricultural production; reducing peoples’ livelihood assets, including housing,

education centres, health provision, access to water and sanitation supply and road infrastructure; harm to

the work force through climate related diseases; and reducing income opportunities. Climate change is

expected to exacerbate such impacts on society.

3.1.4. Vulnerability Assessment for Major Economic Sectors

This report looks at the following major economic sectors in the Limpopo Basin. As major users of water,

these sectors are therefore most likely to be impacted by changes in water resources resulting from climate

change:

3.1.5. Agriculture

The agriculture sector in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is the primary means of livelihood for the

majority of the population. It is characterised predominantly by subsistence agriculture (mainly maize and

cassava cultivation), raising livestock (chiefly cattle, goats, and poultry), and fishing.

Published literature on climate change risk and vulnerability within Southern Mozambique and the

Mozambican Limpopo Basin indicates that climate variability already has impacted on the agriculture sector

in this Basin, and that climate change is likely to exacerbate such impacts. Rainfall is likely to increase in

many areas in the wet season, contributing to a greater likelihood of flood events. The risk of drought

remains similar to present levels, but with greater temperatures and evaporation rates, droughts may

become more pronounced or intense. In addition, Coastal erosion and submergence are likely to have

negative impacts on the coastal region’s soil fertility, through salinization from saltwater intrusion.

Variable and potentially lower water availability could be a key contributor to falling crop yields (although

yields may, in some cases, show marginal increases – e.g. sorghum and soybeans). In terms of socio-

economic vulnerability, prior studies on the basin suggest that in terms of socio-economic capacity,

Water Supply and

Sanitation


supply


water supply



Disasters

Human settlements

Health

Economic Infrastructure

ICT (information &

communications

technology)


power production, supply,

transmission & access

Conservation and

Ecosystems



Ecosystem function/flows

Species conservation

Tourism

Agriculture


and food security


(incl. irrigation)



Massingir is the most vulnerable district, closely followed by Chicualacuala and Xai-Xai. This is mainly due to

the dependence on natural resources and reliance on social support.

Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future

climate. The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.

Sensitivity to climate change: The agricultural sector in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is sensitive

to climate change impacts. Apart from the irrigation schemes in Xai-Xai and Chokwe, the sector is rain-

fed, making it susceptible to changes in precipitation. Maize, the primary crop, is particularly

temperature sensitive. Cattle, which are among the livestock reared by local communities, are also

sensitive to changes in temperature as this affects their physiological health (through thermal stress). In

addition, the rural population is heavily dependent on subsistence farming, with few alternative

sources of income, and is therefore highly sensitive to climatic factors, changes in ground and surface

water availability, floods, and droughts.

Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity, to cope with and manage the impacts of climate variability and

change in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, is low on the whole. Areas benefiting from irrigation

schemes have relatively stronger adaptive capacity than those relying on rain-fed agriculture, but even

the irrigation schemes are susceptible to climate change impacts on the river. Initiatives that have

helped increase adaptive capacity in some areas include income diversification projects to reduce

reliance on cultivation, mixed farming, community-based Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning

Systems, and the relocation of households away from flood prone areas. In coastal areas, mangroves

provides natural adaptive capacity, but are also at risk from climate change impacts.

Sector Vulnerability: The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is

primarily a function of water availability, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly droughts

and floods. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Mozambican

Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as

follows:

Figure 9: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin



3.1.6. Human Safety and Health

Human safety and health in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique suffers from significant challenges. Human

safety is most at risk from the recurrent floods that plague the region. Several large flood events in recent

years have taken a high toll in terms of loss of human lives as well as displacement. Damage to property is

particularly severe because most housing stock is made up of low-grade, natural materials. Resource-poor

communities in the area struggle with malnutrition and food insecurity, particularly amongst children.

Livestock diseases and low quality grazing lands impact livestock productivity, which also contributes to

human malnutrition. The region has a high prevalence of HIV-AIDS, which further lowers human capacity.

Malaria is endemic in the region, and there have been several occurrences of other communicable

diseases.

The increasing occurrence of climate related extreme events including floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level

rise, saltwater intrusion, and related disasters has resulted in deaths, injuries, displacements, and property

losses. These events negatively impact Mozambique’s GDP and GDP growth rate, lower labour productivity,

and increase the country’s disease burden (through post-disaster water-borne disease epidemics). In the

coastal region, land is being lost to submergence and subsidence, causing depreciation of coastal property

value and forced displacement.



Sensitivity to climate change: Widespread poverty makes communities living in the Mozambican

Limpopo Basin particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change on human health and human

safety, including to natural disasters that have often had devastating consequences. Lack of access to

infrastructure, poor quality of roads and built structures, and low levels of education heighten

sensitivity. This is also reflected in relatively low access to clean drinking water.

Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin in the human safety sector has

strengthened over the last decade, especially in relation to flood events. Government agencies as well

as donor initiatives have increased the capacity for early warning, monitoring, and forecasting. Local

community-based disaster preparedness and response efforts (which also address HIV-AIDS) have

produced some promising results. However, there is still a relative lack of adaptive capacity in the

health sector, in the context of climate change related impacts on human health. Similarly, disasters

other than floods also require a build-up of adaptive capacity. Hence, there is room for improvement.

Sector Vulnerability: The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector

is the occurrence of climate related disasters, primarily floods and droughts (and the associated

malnutrition and vulnerability to disease). For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the human

safety and health sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to

change in the future, can be summarised as follows:



Inland Region Current Vulnerability

Future Vulnerability

Climatic Factors High High

Water Availability High High

Flood Events High High

Drought Periods High High

Western Region Current Vulnerability


Climatic Factors Medium Medium




Coastal Region Current Vulnerability


Climatic Factors Low Low

Water Availability High Medium


Drought Periods Medium High


3.1.7. Water Supply and Sanitation

Water demand in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is relatively low, particularly in terms of urban

(domestic) and industrial use.

Over a third of the population in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin relies on an unimproved water source,

while the vast majority of people and households lack access to improved sanitation facilities. Water quality

problems have emerged in recent years due to agricultural runoff and contamination of streams and

groundwater with agricultural chemicals and fertilizers.

Even though current water demand is relatively modest, this is in part a reflection of the region being

largely arid, with limited water resources and thus hasn’t become a natural growth hub of in-migration and

population growth, However, the low demand is also a function of poverty and underdevelopment,

preventing populations from expanding water-consumptive activities at home and in commercial settings.

As domestic water supply improves, and the population increases in the Basin, per capita water

consumption is projected to rise, leading to a marked decline in water availability by mid-century. At

current rates of extraction, flow of the Limpopo River in Mozambique is under threat within a few decades.

Per capita water consumption is expected to grow with greater income levels and economic development.

As this trend materilizes, strategic approaches should be investigated to cater to this growing demand as

efficiently as possible. At the same time, it is important to examine whether all forms of water demand

growth should be encouraged, or if some areas of demand should be considered as trade-offs. For instance,

if agriculture in the region expands significantly, the river and the basin will likely become heavily water

stressed. This then has implications for domestic water supply and sanitation.

Climate change is expected to bring more heavy rainfall events, but not necessarily an overall increase in

annual rainfall volume. Heavy rainfall events do not improve water availability greatly because

groundwater recharge is low, and much of the rainfall is lost as runoff, and there is little storage.



Moreover, climate change could increase drought intensity, creating drier, parched land with a reduced

absorption ability. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop new water sources for the region and enhance

resilience of the water supply and sanitation sector to climate change. Decisions made in upstream

countries will continue to influence the water availability and water quality in the basin.



Sensitivity to climate change: In addition to overarching socio-economic contributors to sensitivity that

apply to all sectors in the Basin (covered in Chapter 5), key factor that contributes to sensitivity is

inadequate access to water supply and sanitation services and infrastructure, and water quality

degradation due to extractive activities in the Basin. Future sensitivity could potentially change due to

the movement of rural poor into towns, placing additional pressure on domestic water supply and

sanitation systems. In terms of exposure, existing water infrastructure is exposed to damage from

floods. Furthermore, drought contributes to catchment degradation, which increases flash flooding and

reduces recharge.

Adaptive capacity: The most significant source of adaptive capacity in the Limpopo Basin in

Mozambique is water storage in the form of the Massingir Dam and reservoir. The dam allows seasonal

and inter-annual variability to be moderated to a degree, assuring water for irrigation to the agrarian

communities of the Basin. Water supply for drinking and sanitation also benefits from Massingir, but

the main efforts at adaptive capacity in this regard are donor-led development projects that aim to

build more bore-wells and hand pumps and improve overall water supply management in the area.

During the investogation that informed this report, there was relatively less information about ongoing

efforts to increase recharge through catchment conservation.

Sector Vulnerability: The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in

Mozambique is primarily due to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. For all three sub-

regions, current vulnerability of the water supply and sanitation sector in the Mozambican Limpopo

Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:




3.1.8. Economic Infrastructure

Economic Infrastructure in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is severely lacking, making infrastructure

development an important stimulus for growth. There is a limited road network in the Basin, serving mainly

the coastal region. A north-south railway line is present but without a significant feeder network. Internet

access in the region is extremely low, although cell phone penetration is fairly high (along with a 3G

network). ICT infrastructure is accessible in Xai Xai and Chokwe, but otherwise deficient in the basin (not

including the power lines that carry electricity from Cahora Bassa to South Africa, which cross the region).

Floods in 2000 and 2013 demonstrated that Economic Infrastructure – particularly roads but also postal

and telecommunications systems – are at risk of significant damage from climate related extreme events.

Climate change has major implications for infrastructure in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. A rise in

temperatures and dry spells affect road quality, increasing the need for maintenance. Similarly, damage to

roads, bridges, and culverts from extreme weather events such as floods will likely result in economic losses

– from both the cost of repairs as well as the slow down of economic activity such as trade (due to impaired

transportation). Additionally, there is the opportunity cost of money invested in repairs rather than in

building new infrastructure to support or spark economic activity. Thus, infrastructure damage from

climate change is expected to have economy-wide, long-term impacts.

Climate change is also expected to have impacts on the basin’s energy systems. Variability and

unpredictability of stream flow will likely affect hydropower generation at Massingir, which would in turn

affect revenue earned through the export of such hydroelectricity. Reliance on charcoal and wood for

cooking fuel could also face a threat from climate change, due to more intense droughts that could affect

vegetation (noting that this type of energy use also contributes to catchment degradation, further

exacerbating the impacts of floods).


climate The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.



Climatic Factors Low Medium















Drought Periods Medium Medium



Sensitivity to climate change: The sector’s sensitivity is a function of the lack of adequate development

of the sector. Less than a tenth of the country (and the Basin) has paved roads. Of the roads that exist,

several are of poor quality. Infrastructure is located in areas that are at risk from flooding (both from

overflows on the main stem of the Limpopo river and coastal storm surges).Widespread damage to

roads and transport infrastructure during the 2000, 2013, and other recent floods is testament to the

sensitive location and quality of the road network. The damage has cost Mozambique millions of dollars

and negatively impact its GDP.

Adaptive Capacity: Several of the measures that have strengthened adaptive capacity of the Human

Safety sector, building resilience to extreme events such as floods, also contribute to adaptive capacity

of Economic Infrastructure. For instance, Early Warning Systems have improved provide the ability of

managers to be aware of risks to energy and telecommunications infrastructure. While it is challenging

to make infrastructure more adaptive once it has been built, recent initiatives by the AfDB and the

World Bank (amongst others) have been launched to integrate climate resilience into the infrastructure

design and development process, i.e. climate mainstreaming for climate-robust infrastructure. Pilot

projects on climate-resilient roads are underway. Adaptove capacity can be strengthened even ex post

facto by improving draininge on roads, strengthening roads in areasprone to flood damage,

strengthening pylons, diverting flod waters, constructive and maintaining clear culverts etc.

Sector Vulnerability: The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of economic infrastructure

in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main

stem of the Limpopo River. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the economic

infrastructure sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to




Climatic Factors Low Medium

Water Availability Low Medium


Drought Periods Low Medium




Water Availability Medium High


Drought Periods Low Medium




Water Availability Low Medium


Drought Periods Low Low




3.1.9. Conservation and Ecosystems

The Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is home to several national parks and conservation areas. The region

already attracts tourists interested in wildlife and natural landscapes, and has significant potential for the

growth of ecotourism. The Basin is characterised by a diversity of vegetation types in the different sub-

regions, including mangroves in the coastal zone, and a network of small wetlands. Climate change poses a

threat not only to these ecosystems, but also to the tourism potential that rests on them. Aquatic

biodiversity includes a range of fish species. However, fishing activities are not carried out through

sustainable methods.

Climate change will have an impact on Mozambique’s biodiversity and ecosystems, including in the

Limpopo Basin. This is likely to result from both direct climatic impacts of warmer temperatures and

changes in rainfall, as well as from altered water availability within the ecosystems and the effects of

extreme weather events. Changes in climate affect the range, the length and timing of growing season.

Climate change is expected to alter the onset of the rains, thereby shifting some of the signals that trigger

key lifecycle events. Changes in temperature and rainfall and the tolerance of species can affect the range

of those species. Together these consequences make climate change one of several key factors contributing

to biodiversity loss. Fire-related degradation, as well as desertification, are also climate change related

impacts expected to increase and threaten the Limpopo Basin’s conservation areas and ecosystems.

Conversely, natural ecosystems provide critical regulating functions, helping mitigate the impacts of climate

change.



Sensitivity to climate change: Ecosystems in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin are susceptible to climate

change due to the direct impacts of changing temperature and water availability on plant growth, on

animal health, on habitat ranges etc. The sensitivity of this sector is elevated through human-caused

degradation, such as the prevalent deforestation and poor land use and agricultural practices.

Freshwater ecosystems are also sensitive to salinisation, which is an increasing challenge due to

saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels, reduced freshwater flows and coastal subsidence.

Adaptive capacity: While Mozambique has several environmental frameworks, policies, and even laws

in place, it does not appear that any of them directly pertain to better protecting ecosystems and

biodiversity from climate change. Innovative measures to enhance or preserve adaptive capacity exist

on paper, such as maintaining Environmental Flows as advised by LIMCOM, but implementation

appears to be weak. Adaptive capacity is low in this sector. New and innovative mechanisms to improve

catchment conservation through micro-financing support could be considered.

Sector Vulnerability: The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the

Limpopo basin arises from direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health.

For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the

Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be

summarised as follows:

















Climatic Factors Medium Medium





3.1.10. Conclusion

Based on the vulnerability assessment conducted, there is a clear and pressing need to develop, introduce,

and strengthen adaptive capacity in each sector so that it is better equipped to cope with and manage the

impacts of climate change. With appropriate and effective climate change adaptation strategies in place,

Mozambique will be in a position to minimize the effects that climate change could have on development

gains made in the Limpopo Basin. Moreover, such strategies can establish a strong foundation for climate-

resilient development that empowers communities living in the Basin through the assurance of adequate

water resources.

4. Priority Strategies

The following strategies have been highlighted as priority strategies due to the scale of their potential

benefits within and across various sectors. The prioritization was guided by a qualitative evaluation of the

low regrets / no regrets nature of the available range of options, the connectivity of the strategies to

broader socio-economic development in the region, and their contribution to several of the SDGs, and an

understanding of how such strategies have been used with favourable outcomes elsewhere in similar

settings such as Mozambique.

These strategies are not listed in an ascending or descending order of priority, but rather have been

categorized based on where the primary responsibility lies for the design, financial investment, institutional

resources, and implementation of the strategy – i.e. national versus provincial strategies. It should be noted

that several strategies are applicable both at a national level and a provincial level, even though the spatial

context of these strategies remains the Limpopo river basin in Mozambique, covering Gaza and Inhambane

provinces.

Strategies to be Directed and Implemented by National Level Government Authorities in Mozambique



Build new flood management infrastructure in Gaza province, on the main stem of the Limpopo River, and accelerate plans to enhance or expand existing flood management and control structures. This can protect human settlements, irrigation schemes, and built economic infrastructure from damaging impacts of floods. The proposed Mapai dam could be such a potential intervention. The Massingir could also be studied for further flood management potential. In both cases, the value of these dams for flood attenuation would rely strongly on improved warning systems and adaptive operational protocols to respond to flood peaks. This strategy would be particularly focused on the western hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Limpopo main stem area). It would lower risk by lowering exposure to hazards. Given that frequent floods are already a challenge for this region and exact a large human and economic toll regularly, building flood management infrastructure would be a low-regret option (as long as an appropriate and evidnece-based return period is chosen). While it may not be a low-cost option in terms of the budget required for such infrastructure, when a detailed evaluation of averted costs is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.

Accelerate existing plans to build new irrigation schemes and expand existing irrigation schemes in Gaza province, to increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply to support agriculture. This can help reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture and enable greater income-generation from farming. For new or expanded irrigation schemes, additional sources of water need to be harnessed. This strategy could therefore be supported through the building of a dam and storage reservoir, if it adequately takes into account current climate variability and anticipated climate change. The proposed Mapai dam could be a potential source of new irrigation schemes. This strategy would be particularly focused on the western hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Limpopo main stem area). It would lower risk by strengthening adaptive capacity. Given that improved irrigation would support more productive agriculture and boost income levels in the region through a strengthened agriculture sector, it would be a low-regret option. While it may certainly entail sizeable costs, when a detailed evaluation of potential socio-economic benefits is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.

Accelerate existing plans to build a barrage or series of dikes in the coastal region of the Limpopo river basin, in Gaza province, to address the problem of storm surges, which will be compounded in the future with sea level rise. The design and location of such a physical barrier should adequately take into account current climate variability and anticipated climate change, should ensure that no damage occurs to natural barriers such as mangrove forests. This could be supplemented by implementing estuarine flows to address saltwater intrusion. This strategy would be particularly focused on the coastal hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Xai Xai area). It would lower risk by reducing exposure. Given that the coastal region is currently a source of significant economic activity, property, and home to a large section of the basin’s population, providing adequate protection in this region against storm surges and coastal erosion would be a low-regret option. Barrages and dikes come at a significant cost, and thus a full examination of the costs and benefits would be necessary to determine whether this should indeed remain within the priority strategies or be deferred for a later time when sea level rise and storm surge impacts are more clearly understood in the region.

Increase access to, and availability of, adequate water supply systems to communities in the Limpopo basin to meet their drinking water and sanitation needs. The meeting of basic water and sanitation needs supports population resilience, including improved health and a reduction in the water-borne disease burden. For an increase in water supply for human (and potentially industrial) use, additional sources of water need to be harnessed. This strategy would therefore be supported through the building of a multipurpose dam (such as the proposed Mapai dam) and storage reservoir, if it adequately takes into account current climate variability and



anticipated climate change. This strategy would be focused on all three hydro-climatic zones within the basin. It would lower risk by strengthening adaptive capacity. Given that improved access to water would support human development as well as industrial activity regardless of climate change, it would be a low-regret option. While it may certainly entail sizeable costs, when a detailed evaluation of potential socio-economic benefits is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.

Redouble efforts to work with upstream nations to strengthen transboundary river basin management. No matter what Mozambique does within its section of the Limpopo basin, its resilience to climate change is dependent on developments in the remainder of the basin. Development, and with it increased water use and pollution in upstream nations, can alter the quality, timing and quantity of the Limpopo river’s flows when it enters Mozambique; watershed management and catchment management upstream can alter the integrity of the basin as a whole. Thus it is critical that Mozambique strengthens efforts to work closely with upstream countries, and for all basin partners to work in close alignment to ensure basin-wide climate change resilience.

Strategies to be Directed by and Implemented by Provincial Governments of Gaza and Inhambane

Continue and rigorously expand existing disaster management efforts by provincial disaster management departments that have demonstrated positive impacts. Substantial resources should be directed to the scale up of efforts including: (a) relocation of communities from high-flood risk areas, particularly through the provision of second, well-constructed homes with improved amenities; (b) the use of community-based teams that engage directly with rural populations to build awareness of disaster risk reduction and disaster response; and (c) the use of early warning systems.

Explicitly integrate climate variability and anticipated climate change into land-use planning frameworks, laws, regulations, tools, models, etc. Ensure that all land use decisions are informed by current and future climate change risk, and that human settlements and key economic infrastructure are carefully sited in low or no-risk areas, over time shifting land-use patterns away from disaster-prone regions.

Increase economic resilience by strengthening income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers, through support for value-addition – including assistance with livestock and mixed farming, small business development, market creation and access (perhaps through outgrower schemes attached to the existing irrigation developments), training for agro-based commodity development. This strategy should explicitly integrate preparedness for climate change, and thus include Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) approaches.

Scale up current efforts for natural and mechanical rainwater harvesting, though an expansion of the existing programme of building earthen or excavated reservoirs (but redesigned so as to allow not only for temporary seasonal storage but also groundwater recharge) and rooftop rainwater harvesting equipment (which could be supported through incentive programmes involving rebates and subsidies). Initiate catchment rehabilitation programmes, with the associated micro-financing incentives.



Significantly expand existing disease surveillance and monitoring systems in the Gaza and Inhambane provinces, specifically with the integration of climate change into disease surveillance and monitoring protocols. Train health care providers to record and track climate-related impacts, to provide both a long-term evidence base as well as a means of identifying outbreak patterns that can inform well-designed future climate-health interventions.

Expand ecosystem-based conservation programmes in Gaza and Inhambane provinces, to help repair, maintain, and enhance the natural resilience of ecosystems. With strong ecosystem functioning (based in particular on ecosystem diversity), natural landscapes and species are more robust in their response to climatic shocks. Such an ecosystem-based conservation programme (expanding on any existing efforts) should include, inter alia: (a) effective implementation of e-flows regulations, and strengthening e-flows requirements as needed; (b) maintenance of riparian zones; (c) adequate implementation of policies to curb deforestation and degradation (including from fuelwood collection); (d) the introduction of local (indigenous) but climate-resilient vegetation after in-depth, locally tailored research; and (e) the creation of a digital information and monitoring system to better track and understand species and landscape changes in response to climate change, such as species range shifts, invasive species, changes in growing seasons etc.

While the scope of this current strategy-development effort does not provide for an investigation of actual

and relative costs of the recommended strategies, it is recommended that the strategies be fully and

comprehensively be investigated by ARA-Sul through the proposed pre-feasibility and feasibility study

stages of the Mapai Dam project development cycle. Additionally, a project-preparation effort similar to

the WACDEP programme could be launched in Mozambique to make a detailed assessment of the costs,

benefits, and other implications of each of these strategies, to further identify where investment should be

prioritized.



APPENDIX A: Stakeholder Consultation

The vulnerability assessment and the climate resilience strategy were developed in consultation with a

variety of stakeholders in Mozambique. The list of stakeholders that were consulted during the two phases

are provided below.

Stakeholders Consulted during the Development of the Vulnerability Assessment

ANAC: Administração Nacional das Áreas de Conservação - National Agency for Conservation Areas

ARA-SUL: Administração Regional de Águas do Sul – Regional Water Administration South Region

Chokwe Irrigation Scheme

IIAM: Instituto de Investigação Agrária de Moçambique - Institute of Agricultural Research

INAM: Instituto Nacional de. Meteorologia - National Meteorology Institute

INGC: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (Gaza Province) - National Institute of Disaster

Management

INGC: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (Head Quarters) - National Institute of Disaster

Management

INIR: Instituto Nacional de Irrigação - National Irrigation Institute

GIZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH – representative of the

Vulnerability Sourcebook project

MISAU: Ministério de Saúde - Ministry of Health

MITADER: Ministério da Terra, Ambiente e Desenvolvimento Rural - Ministry of Land, Environment

and Rural Development

UEM: Universidade Eduardo Mondlane - Eduardo Mondlane University (Hydrologist)

UEM: Universidade Eduardo Mondlane - Eduardo Mondlane University (Climatologist)

Xai-Xai Irrigation Scheme

Stakeholders Consulted during the Development of the Climate Resilience Strategy

ARA-SUL: Administração Regional de Águas do Sul – Regional Water Administration South Region

National Irrigation Institute

(To be completed based on receipt of written comments from stakeholders)

To Be Consulted in Anticipated Stakeholder Consultations:

Mozambique Council for Sustainable development (CONDES)

Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA)

LIMCOM

Energy Sector Decisionmakers

Civil Society and NGOs



APPENDIX B: Review of Resilience Strategies

This appendix provides a list of various water-resource-focused climate resilience strategies that have been

explored in the development of the climate resilience strategy for the Limpopo basin in Mozambique.

These strategies include current sector-specific strategies already being implemented by the Government

of Mozambique, a review of traditional and modern adaptation practices prevalent in the region, and an

examination of case studies in international basins plus best practice guidelines.

Strategies by the Government of Mozambique

Agenda 2025 (GoM 2003)

National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) (2007)

National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) (2013 - 2025)

INGC: Responding to Climate Change in Mozambique (INGC Phase II, 2009 -2012)

Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA 2010 - 2019)

Poverty Reduction Action Plan (PARP) (2011 - 2014)

National Programme for Agricultural Development (PROAGRI)

Rural Finance Strategy (2011)

Master Plan for Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Disasters (2006)

Environmental Strategy for the Sustainable Development (EADS) of Mozambique (2007)

National Water Resources Management Strategy (2006)

Strategies related to the Limpopo Basin

LIMCOM: Limpopo River Basin Monograph (2013)

RESILIM: Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin (2015)

Strategies by the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP): Strategic Transboundary Water Resources

Assessment (2011)

SADC: Climate Change Adaptation in SADC - A Strategy for the Water Sector (2011)

SADC Issue Paper on Climate Change: Assessing the Policy Options for SADC Member States (by D

Lesolle, 2012)

Strategies by International Institutions on Mozambique

World Bank and GFDRR: Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change (2011)

Strategies by International River Basin Authorities

Nile Basin Climate Change Strategy (2013)

Murray Darling Basin: Building Resilience to a Changing Climate - A climate Change Adaptation Plan

(2014)

Volta Basin: Water, Climate, Food, and Environment in the Volta Basin (Ghana) (2003)

Catskill Creek - Hudson River: Catskill Village Resilience Strategy (2014)

Rising Waters: Helping Hudson River Communities Adapt to Climate Change Scenario Planning 2010

– 2030 (2009)

California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) (2009)



Best Practice Review

African Ministers' Council on Water (AMCOW), Global Water Partnership (GWP) and Climate and

Development Knowledge Network (CDKN): Strategic Framework - Water Security and Climate

Resilient Development. Water, Climate and Development Programme (WACDEP) (2012)

IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

(2012)

United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and Global Water Partnership (GWP): Strategic

Framework - WASH Climate Resilient Development (2014)

Asia-Pacific Water Forum, Asian Development Bank and Global Water Partnership (GWP): Meta-

Guidelines for Water and Climate Change: For practitioners in Asia and the Pacific (2015)

Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) and South African National Biodiversity Institute

(SANBI): Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) Flagship Research Programme (2013)

InWent: Towards Climate Change Adaptation - Building Adaptive Capacity in Managing African

Transboundary River Basins (2008).



APPENDIX C: Sector-Specific Interventions

This section provides an overview of various interventions that have the potential to reduce the exposure

and sensitivity of key economic sectors in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, and can increase adaptive

capacity of the sectors. As such these represent a large universe of adaptation options available to

Mozambique for water-sector (and broader) climate resilience in the Limpopo river basin. Some of these

are already reflected in existing approaches. While the scope of the current project does not allow for a

detailed evaluation of the on-the-ground efficacy of each of these options, the list that follows is indicative

of the variety of options both the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane, ARA-Sul, and the national government

have at their disposal.

As discussed previously, these strategies can include:

Socio-economic approaches focused on improving social resilience, such as improving education

levels, promoting income security or improving knowledge of climate risks

Physical approaches such as irrigation infrastructure, household water storage solutions and green

infrastructure

Institutional (governance) approaches such as land-use planning approaches, farmer-based

organisations and improving institutional capacity. This also includes financial mechanisms such as

insurance, low-interest loans or access to credit.

C1. Agriculture

C1.1 Vulnerability of the Agriculture Sector

The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is primarily a function of

water availability in the face of increased demand, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly

droughts and floods. These exposure elements – which are expected to increase and intensify with climate

change - are compounded by the sensitivity of the sector, given the high proportion of rain-fed subsistence

agriculture in the Limpopo basin, the physical location of critical irrigation schemes in flood-risk areas in

Gaza province, and the climate-sensitive nature of major crops grown in this basin (maize and sugarcane).

Adaptive capacity is typically lacking in this basin (and the two provinces it straddles), with low levels of

income generation from agriculture leading to less income-security and lower access to resources when

crops fail or are damaged by floods.

Sub-regional Perspective

In the arid inland sub-region (Changane catchment), there is frequently and seasonally a scarcity of water and as there is virtually no storage, water yields are low. This limits the nature of agriculture in the area to rain-fed, subsistence agriculture. This makes the region particularly vulnerable to drought. Limited infrastructure in this sub-region (including roads) constrains access to markets for agricultural products.

In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), there is a large irrigation scheme in Chokwe enabling the growth of commercial agriculture, but areas farther upstream do not benefit from these irrigation facilities. Even the irrigation scheme that does service Chokwe is at risk from floods on the Limpopo river, which have been known to cause damage to dykes and canals. The Massingir dam is being expanded to provide more yield and support more irrigation, but there is still greater need.



In the coastal sub-region, there is a run of river irrigation scheme in Xai Xai (which also supports commercial agriculture, in addition to subsistence farming). However, saltwater intrusion into the scheme has caused salinity in the water, leading to crop losses. This is likely to be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, this scheme is also at risk of damage when the Limpopo river main stem floods. However, water demands at this scheme are lower due to the higher rainfall.

C1.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Agriculture

A range of possible adaptation measures could be introduced in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique to

strengthen climate resilience in the agricultural sector. A survey of best practices from similarly situated

countries, review of select climate adaptation strategies and programme reports from across Africa, and an

investigation of what is already being done in Mozambique reveal a wide choice of adaptation actions.

Some of these are listed below as examples:

Socio-economic approaches

i. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should promote diversification of income sources, to reduce

reliance on subsistence agriculture. When households have a diversity of revenue sources, they are

less affected by single shocks such as an extreme event that destroys crops or a climate-related

pest infestation etc. The provinces’ agricultural extension services and economic development

offices should identify which additional income sources are most viable (e.g. value-added

agriculture or small-scale agro-based industries, or alternately meat and dairy farming with cattle,

or making agro-based products like mats and reed furniture etc.) and invest resources in vocational

trainings, skills development, and income generation workshops. It should be noted that livestock

farming is not a climate-resilient option in many cases (due to both water demand and the animals’

sensitivity to climatic shocks); thus this option should be introduced only after careful consideration

and study.

ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, with support from the national government, should improve

overall education levels in the community to enhance awareness of climate change and variability

related risks, so that farmers are empowered to make choices to reduce their risks. Specific

educational drives (such as workshops that use material additional to existing curricula) should be

conducted by the provinces with a clear focus on climate change, as opposed to agricultural

development more generally (which is already happening in some form). This is particularly

necessary in Inhambane province, which has relatively poor educational indices in comparison, and

where farmers have fewer options at their disposal in coping with climatic impacts compared to

those along the Limpopo main stem. These educational drives should focus on the types of climate

change impacts that are locally relevant in this region, e.g. flooding on the main Limpopo stem, sea

level rise on the coast, drought etc.

Physical approaches

iii. Develop new irrigation schemes in Gaza province with storage, and expand existing irrigation

schemes to ensure the agricultural sector can evolve from rain-fed and subsistence based to having



a secure and consistent source of water. This would support the growth of commercial agriculture

(including commercial agriculture incentivised to have outgrower schemes).

iv. In the Changane catchment, developing new irrigation schemes is a greater challenge, but a

possible physical approach is to invest in more pumps for farmers to use. Those implementing such

a strategy should study the benefits from different type of pumps and choose the ones with greater

benefits – treadle, solar, or ram. Similarly, communities could benefit from the construction of

more earthen reservoirs (to collect and use water in the wet season), a strategy that is already

being implemented but could be ramped up, after careful study about water quality and quantity

impacts downstream.

v. A less viable and higher-risk approach is inter-basin transfers of flood water from the Limpopo

mainstream to the Changane basin. This should only be considered when low-regret approaches

have been exhausted. However, this strategy has elicited interest from ARA-Sul, and the national

government could thus invest more resources into studying the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of

this, especially in light of climate change in these basins.

Institutional approaches

Note that these all have varying implementation and delivery timescales.

vi. Through collaboration with agricultural research institutes, update agricultural sector

plans/strategies with a focus on climate change. There is an example of a strategy that is already

underway (by the National Irrigation Institute), but there is scope for even more climate change

mainstreaming into all agriculture and irrigation plans, both at the national level and within the

provincial level. These updates can provide an opportunity to assess which aspects of such existing

plans and strategies have been successful and which have produced limited results, allowing for

recalibration and strengthening of agricultural strategies in the context of climate change.

vii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should provide training to farmers on climate change adaptation, in

collaboration with private sector actors. This is already being done in Xai-Xai as a collaboration

between Wanbao and local farmers, through the auspices of the provincial Directorate of

Agriculture. These types of knowledge and skills-building trainings could focus on Climate Smart

Agriculture, and enhance awareness of impacts from climate change as well as teaching how to use

response measures such as drought-resistant seeds, improved soil tillage practices (such as

conservation tillage), and related adaptation measures. Initial results of such a strategy indicate

that farmers were able to double or triple yields, and thus the provinces should scale this up,

investing more resources.

viii. A corollary of the above approach is to build greater institutional capacity in the very institutions at

the Province level that support such trainings in the agricultural community, such as extension

services, agricultural research facilities, local governments’ agricultural departments etc. Budgets of

the Directorate of Agriculture in Gaza and Inhambane province should be increased, and more skills

training should be provided to these officials.

ix. Gaza and Inhambane provinces (including state universities situated within them) should conduct

research on the inhibiting factors to small-holder farming expansions, and develop relevant

business development mechanisms (in collaboration with different sectors). This should identify

specific factors within Gaza and Inhambane that impede farm expansion (e.g. lack of credit) and

should target interventions that are suitable for these local communities specifically.



x. Both the national and provincial agricultural agencies, in coordination with INGC, should develop

agricultural disaster management plans, to prepare for times when crops and livestock are affected

by climate related events such as floods, droughts, wildfires etc. Having institutionalised processes

and mechanisms in place in Gaza and Inhambane (such as reimbursements, crop insurance, or

other forms of assistance) can help reduce the negative consequences of such disasters on the

agriculture sector in the basin.

xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces (and universities situated within them) should conduct more

research on locally relevant climate adaptation for the agriculture sector, focused on the specific

crops that grow here (e.g. maize and sugarcane). While a wealth of information is available globally

and regionally, it is important to invest in research that is specific to local conditions in these two

provinces (i.e. in the Limpopo basin), such as local staple crops, local farming practices, locally

available resources, local soil conditions etc., so as to identify the most location-specific adaptation

measures that can be used within the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. More R&D could focus on

identifying which species will benefit from or thrive in changing climatic conditions in the Limpopo

basin, and will inform crop switching. It could help the development of climate resilient seeds or

varieties for local staples. It could highlight which crops are most at risk and indicate how to

specifically protect them within local conditions, and so on. These provincial efforts could also be

supplemented by national level climate change R&D initiatives that study the Limpopo basin.

xii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces’ disaster management authorities should collaborate with the

provinces’ agricultural agencies to provide early warning systems that detect the types of climatic

events or factors in this region that materially affect the agriculture sector in the Limpopo basin.

Existing EWS systems do not appear to be specially customized to the agriculture sector. Even

where ag-specific warnings exist, communication and information-dissemination remain a

challenge.

xiii. Introduce / improve water allocation mechanisms to provide for variable assurance of supply.

C1.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to Consider

At the core of agricultural vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique – to both climate variability

and climate change (which includes sea level rise) – is the variance and unpredictability of water availability

(or firm yield). This has constrained agricultural development, the growth of value-addition in the sector,

hampered commercial farming, and limited the areas where farming can take place.

Thus, the primary (water resource related) climate resilience strategy for the basin as a whole is as follows:

I. Increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply to support agriculture.

This would translate into the construction of new irrigation schemes and extending existing

irrigation schemes. The national government would have to mandate and facilitate this, but the

actual management of this strategy would rest on the provinces.

However, in a region that is often water-stressed, any development of new irrigation schemes or

extension of existing schemes is only viable if the firm yield of water is increased. Moreover, given

the seasonal variation in the Limpopo river, which often floods in the wet season and falls to

extremely low levels in the dry season, the feasibility of new or extended irrigation schemes would



be dependent on safeguarding against seasonal inconsistencies in water availability. This would

require the development of adequate water storage to ensure that the irrigation schemes can be

fed sufficiently at all times, and increasing the yield through variable assurance of supply.

Ideally, this water infrastructure project would be sited upstream of Chokwe, so that areas

currently north-west of Chokwe that do not have access to an irrigation scheme could also see the

development of a scheme that services them, but it would also provide water into schemes farther

downstream. The proposed Mapai dam could be such an option, once investigated thoroughly.

While irrigation schemes can serve areas around the main stem of the Limpopo river (in Gaza

province), there are more far-flung areas (including in the Changane sub-basin) where irrigation

schemes cannot be extended. For such areas, it is recommended that an existing strategy being

implemented by ARA-Sul be expanded. This involves the building of excavated reservoirs in the

earth that can capture rainwater (i.e. rainwater harvesting), filling up with as much as 35,000 m3 of

water.

Additional resilience strategies recommended for the Limpopo basin (mainly Gaza province) include the

following:

II. Protect irrigation scheme infrastructure and crops in the river’s flood plain from floods

While intermittent flooding is beneficial to the agricultural sector in the Limpopo’s flood plain if the

flooding is managed carefully (to provide fertile alluvium for crops and provide more soil moisture),

larger floods can be catastrophic for crops in Gaza. Thus, new and additional flood prevention,

control and management infrastructure and processes should be introduced to better regulate

floods. This is also beneficial to existing and potentially expanded irrigation schemes, so as to

protect these capital assets and reduce the need for rebuilding and costly repairs after extreme

flooding. The construction of new and additional flood control structures in Gaza would be

mandated by the national government (including a key role by ARA-Sul), but the management of

such interventions would be the responsibility of the province. One potential source of guidance in

designing and implementing such a strategy is the EU flood directive.

III. Increase income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers through support for value-addition,

or more outgrower schemes and assurance of markets for supply.

Adaptive capacity for farmers in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, particularly small-holder,

subsistence farmers in Gaza and Inhambane, should be increased by providing them greater income

security. Higher income levels would enable not only greater savings to help tide over crop failure

or crop loss from floods and droughts, but would allow re-investment into agriculture so as to

improve productivity and efficiency (for instance, through the purchase of fertilizers, higher yielding

seed varieties, purchase of livestock for mixed farming etc.). Income levels can be boosted by

providing greater access to markets (through improved road connectivity), through promoting

more access to credit (such as low-interest loans), and by providing extension services and trainings

to educate farmers about Climate Smart Agriculture, value-addition opportunities, and improved

farming practices overall. As described earlier in this chapter, Gaza and Inhambane provinces

should promote diversification of income sources, to reduce reliance on subsistence agriculture.

When households have a diversity of revenue sources, they are less affected by single shocks such



as an extreme event that destroys crops or a climate-related pest infestation etc. The provinces’

agricultural extension services and economic development offices should identify which additional

income sources are most viable (e.g. value-added agriculture or small-scale agro-based industries,

or alternately meat and dairy farming with cattle if viable, or making agro-based products like mats

and reed furniture etc.) and invest resources in vocational trainings, skills development, and income

generation workshops.

For the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), where new or extended irrigation facilities are not a cost-

effective option (due to the distances that water would have to be transported and the flat nature of

terrain that would impede storage), the following climate resilience strategy is suggested as an alternate

version of the strategy above:

Increase income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers by supporting livestock farming,

where such livestock farming contributes to climate resilience and not climate vulnerability.

Improved irrigation is not a feasible option to increase water availability in the inland area. This

inherently limits the development of commercial agriculture and value-addition for crops like grain,

fruits, vegetables etc. However, even in semi-arid regions like this, greater resilience can be

generated by increasing income levels. This can be done through an increase in livestock-based

agriculture, which can also be supported by increasing access to credit, plus trainings and skills-

development on livestock rearing plus value-addition through dairy and meat based products.

Farmers in Gaza province own many heads of cattle, but cultural factors have resulted in cattle

owners not using their cattle for productive activities and income generation. The provinces of

Gaza and Inhambane should actively create markets where cattle and derivative products (milk,

cheese, hide etc.) can be traded. Examples of such market creation have worked well in Zambia and

other parts of southern Africa, and thus can be introduced in the Limpopo basin, customizing the

markets to local needs and after engaging local cattle owners to make them more aware of such

opportunities, so as to counteract the cultural disinclination to trade in cattle or cattle-related

products.

C2. Water Supply and Sanitation

C2.1 Vulnerability of Water Supply and Sanitation in the Limpopo Basin, Moz.

The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is primarily

due to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. The basin alternates between an overabundance of

water during the wet season, often manifesting as floods, and a scarcity of water in the dry season,

resulting in parched lands and often as a period of drought. Groundwater gets replenished periodically, but

with an increasing population expansion and growing water demand for both irrigation and domestic use,

groundwater levels are not expected to keep up with levels of demand. Current per capita water

consumption levels in urban areas are low, but this is also expected to see an upward trend, creating more

demand for drinking water in households and industries. The overall lack of consistency in river flows and

inadequate water supply and sanitation infrastructure make this sector vulnerable due to its



underdevelopment. Additionally, insufficient water supply and sanitation is in turn a contributor to

vulnerability of the population to disease, leading to overall low levels of adaptive capacity.

Sub-regional Perspective

In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), the population largely relies on groundwater. However, groundwater quality is a matter of concern for geologic reasons, and is likely to worsen with climate change and heightened pressure on limited freshwater aquifers.

In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), water supply and sanitation is less of a challenge in relative terms because most urban users have access to water, and many have access to improved sanitation facilities (albeit there is significant room for improvement). This sub-region is more densely populated than the inland region, with a higher concentration of towns and cities and commercial centres. Thus, water demand here is expected to grow more sharply.

In the coastal sub-region, water quality issues also affect water supply and sanitation. Saltwater intrusion as accelerated due to sea level rise is already a challenge for the main stem of the Limpopo. While some towns like Xai Xai are well supplied with water, more remote regions still lack adequate water supply and sanitation. As population grows and cities expand, demand on water is expected to grow markedly.

C2.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Water Supply and Sanitation

A suite of possible adaptation measures could be considered in Gaza and Inhambane provinces to

strengthen climate resilience in the water supply and sanitation sector. A survey of best practices from

similarly situated countries, review of climate adaptation material, and an investigation of what is already

being done in Mozambique reveal a wide choice of adaptation actions. Some of these are enumerated

below as examples:


i. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to implement and should expand communication

and knowledge sharing drives on how to treat water that is sourced directly from the river and from

aquifers. In addition, the human health impacts associated with drinking unsafe water should also be

addressed in more awareness building trainings. This is already underway in the form of an

awareness drive about the use of chlorine to disinfect water, but these communication drives by the

provinces should be redesigned to also focus in particular on the growing prevalence of climate-

change related water quality hazards including water-borne diseases.

ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to implement and should expand communication

and knowledge sharing drives on safe sanitation in instances where sanitation infrastructure is not

available. In addition, general water pollution from improper waste disposal, and inadequate waste

management practices should also be addressed. This is being done both by governments and by

non-profit organizations, but given the increased risk from climate change the climate element

should be integrated into these drives in the provinces in the Limpopo basin (e.g. flooding and

overflow of waste disposal facilities). Sanitation is especially a problem area in rural areas of the

basin, because urban centres largely have facilities, as per official figures. Thus the focus should be on

rural areas, especially those population centres that are situated close to the river’s main stem.




iii. ARA-Sul should regularly update catchment management and water management plans for the

Limpopo river basin, integrating climate change. This includes water planning frameworks and water

supply strategies that also address short- and long-term water availability and supply changes due to

anticipated climate impacts. This type of water resource management should be done not only at a

catchment level, but also a local level.

iv. ARA-Sul should lead the strengthening of strict water governance frameworks for regulating water in

the region. This should be a cross-sectoral and inter-departmental process to help incorporate

climate adaptation into all water related activities and sectors. An example of this would be

integrating climate change into a water quality framework, which also includes water contamination

during flood events.

v. ARA-Sul should develop and implement a digital, online water resource management and monitoring

information system that houses up-to-date information on water availability, water use and water

quality. This will also assist in effective planning for water use in the region, and can be shared with

provinces and also be accessible to the general public.

vi. The national government should build the capacity both nationally and sub-nationally that is required

to ensure sustainable and adaptable management of water resources, including for sanitation

purposes. This can be achieved through knowledge generation (i.e. research), knowledge

dissemination (i.e. training, education or workshops) and informed action (i.e. pilot programs). More

resources in the budget should be allocated for this.

vii. Water supply agencies in the provinces, in coordination with the national government, should

implement tiered domestic and commercial water tariffs systems which not only promote efficient

water use by charging high water users (based on their deviation from average baseline use and

relative to their specific water needs), but also raise capital for the water supplying entity to enable

more adaptation interventions, routine maintenance, network expansion etc.

Physical approaches

viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop new water supply systems, infrastructure, and

networks and expand existing systems to provide more water supply, and to keep up with growing

water consumption and demand. This should be done taking climate change projections and trends

into account, in a climate-resilient manner, and less vulnerable to droughts and floods.

ix. With the help of national level technical staff and ARA-Sul, Gaza and Inhambane provinces should

adapt existing water supply infrastructure to changing climatic conditions, and integrate climate

change into new water infrastructure to be planned and built. For instance, examine the impact of

growing sedimentation on water supply and sanitation systems, or scouring from floods.

x. ARA-Sul should collaborate with the provinces to develop adaptable water supply infrastructure that

can deal with multiple climate impacts. An example of this is building a large dam that stores water

during droughts, and also regulates or diverts flood water during flood events. The mandate for this

may have to come from national government agencies.

xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct risk and engineering reviews of existing infrastructure

to identify climate adaptation needs, particularly with respect to their ability to survive floods. This

could be done in collaboration with the National Institute of Irrigation.



xii. ARA-Sul and the two provinces should update existing infrastructure to deal with prevalent climate

impacts. An example of this would be raising the heights of dams or water treatment plants, or

expanding the capacity of drainage systems, depending on the impacts that are anticipated.

xiii. The national government as well as the two provinces in the Limpopo basin should develop

partnerships with the insurance industry to promote regular system and infrastructure maintenance.

xiv. Gaza and Inhambane, in collaboration with provincial Disaster Management agencies, should develop

an early warning system and/or monitoring framework that ensures early detection of material

climate risks that are likely to result in damage to water supply and sanitation infrastructure.

xv. ARA-Sul and the two provinces should investigate the value of multiple smaller water storage systems

(such as a series of small multi-purpose dams or excavated reservoirs) that provide water to several

dispersed urban areas or a large conglomeration of rural areas, instead of building a few large or

mega dams. Feasibility studies should be conducted to ensure this does not in fact increase

evaporation.

xvi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop household water supply mechanisms for local

communities (i.e. water harvesting), targeting the rural population, to promote water supply. The

national government should promote the adoption of such equipment by providing financial

subsidies and rebates for the same.

xvii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should expand the existing network of boreholes / borewells, in

coordination with ARA-Sul.

xviii. The two provinces should invest in further expansion of newer technologies for household rural

sanitation systems (and/or adapt current latrine systems to climate related impacts. This could also

involve exploring small-scale biological systems (i.e. creating fertiliser and healthy soils from human

waste) or leveraging wetlands and water ponds common in the Changane sub basin.

xix. Ventilated and Improved Pit-latrines should be avoided in flood prone areas.

xx. Gaza and Inhambane should develop back-up/alternate infrastructure to be used in instances when

climatic factors or extreme events impact existing infrastructure. This can include cost-effective

backup household water storage and supply mechanisms for the urban population.

xxi. The provinces should expand access to household water treatment technologies, such as filters and

disinfectants. This is already happening but can be scaled up and could target universal coverage.

xxii. ARA-Sul and the provincial authorities should invest in technologies that reduce the impact of

saltwater on water supply infrastructure, such as through lined pipe systems and filtration systems

etc.

C2.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to Consider

Season variation and inconsistent timing and availability of water underlies the water supply and sanitation

sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. Currently, while some towns have adequate

access to improved water supply and sanitation, this supply network has yet to provide for more far-flung,

rural areas. As population and density grow, it will become imperative to provide the area with more water,

which will require accessing new and additional sources of water supply.

Thus, the primary climate resilience strategy for the basin (Gaza and Inhambane provinces) is as follows:

I. Increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply and sanitation for population

use



This would translate into the development of new water supply and sanitation systems and

expansion of existing networks in both Gaza and Inhambane provinces. There is already traction for

this at the national and provincial level, thus it is recommended that these existing plans be

expedited and better resourced so as to fully implement this within a 2-3 year timeframe.

However, given that water supplies in the basin are already stretched (with competing demand

from irrigation), any development of new water supply networks or extension of existing networks

is only viable if there are additional sources of water to bring into the additional systems.

Moreover, given the seasonal variation in the Limpopo river, which often floods in the wet season

and falls to extremely low levels in the dry season, the feasibility of new or extended irrigation

systems would be dependent on safeguarding against seasonal and inter-annual unpredictability in

water availability. This would require the development of adequate water storage to ensure that

the water treatment and supply systems could have a reliable source at all times.

Ideally, this water infrastructure project would be sited where there are currently no safe and

reliable drinking water supplies, so that areas that presently rely on groundwater and do not have

adequate water for drinking and sanitation can receive access. This would enable more resilient

development of currently underserved populations. The Mapai dam could be one such option.

Given the slight variations in water supply and sanitation needs in the different sub-regions, the following

are suggested as slight alternatives to the recommendation above (which applies largely to the western /

main stem sub—region):

II. For the Inland (Changane catchment) sub-region, increase groundwater recharge through water

harvesting

There is less potential for new river-based water supply and storage systems in the Changane

catchment. However, to make the region more climate resilient in terms of water supply and

sanitation, Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to build and enhance water harvesting

systems. This includes both ground-based water harvesting such as through earthen tanks or

excavated reservoirs (to increase groundwater recharge and replenish aquifers) and household

based systems (such as rooftop rainwater harvesting) for domestic use. The national government

could initiate support for the adoption of such measures, through subsidies, rebates, and similar

incentives. While ARA-Sul is already building excavated reservoirs, these have thus far only been

designed to capture and store water for seasonal use during the wet season. It would be more far-

sighted to design the water structures to allow for percolation and groundwater recharge (a

method that has been successful in arid regions of India, for instance). This would enhance long-

term resilience as opposed to just being a short-term seasonal measure.

III. For the coastal sub-region, invest in measures to safeguard from storm surges and to also

supplement groundwater

A physical structure such as a barrage could be investigated to address storm surges, but even

natural coastal defences such as mangrove forests should be protected and promoted to reduce

coastal erosion and subsequent saltwater intrusion. Similar to the Changane catchment, the

government could support measures for household based rainwater harvesting systems and

filtration systems to help supplement existing water supply with additional non-saline water. Such a



barrage would have to receive a mandate from the national government (ARA-Sul and INGC) but its

management would be the responsibility of Gaza province.

C3. Human Safety and Health

C3.1 Vulnerability of the Human Safety and Health Sector in the Limpopo Basin

The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector is the occurrence of

climate related disasters, primarily floods. Not only do large floods on the Limpopo river in Mozambique

cause massive casualties in terms of human deaths and injuries, they destroy or damage property, leaving

affected populations without adequate shelter or even completely displaced. Floods also cause damage to

transportation and electricity infrastructure, leaving communities without recourse to travel to safer areas

or without electricity and communication mechanisms. Moreover, in the aftermath of major flood events,

water supplies are compromised due to contamination or due to a larger group of people relying on the

same limited amount of clean water sources. This precipitates water borne disease outbreaks, and also

increases the risk of vector multiplication, increasing the risk of diseases like malaria.

Sub-regional Perspective In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), greater flooding is likely due to climate change,

as a result of increased heavy rainfall events. In particular, increased tropical cyclones rainfall activity is anticipated. Drought, on the other hand, is also likely to increase and become more intense due to higher temperatures and greater rates of evaporation. This also raises the risk of wild fires.

In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), climate change projections indicate more variable rainfall, including more heavy rainfall events. This could contribute to more frequent and more intense floods. As above, droughts are also predicted to become more prolonged, due to more rainfall variability, and higher temperatures and evaporation. Similarly, wildfire threats could increase.

In the coastal sub-region, rising sea levels and elevated coastal erosion are likely to result in more flooding from coastal inundation and from storm surges. Being a low-lying area near the mouth of the main stem of the Limpopo, this also makes the area vulnerable to flooding when water levels in the main stem overflow. .

C3.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Human Safety and Health

Socio economic approaches

i. Provincial departments of Disaster Management in Gaza and Inhambane should engage in more

research to investigate what can be improved in terms of communication about disasters. Evidence

suggests even when people receive information about floods they choose to not move. Greater

insights should be evolved on why this is and what can be done to address this. This is already

taking place but these efforts should be scaled up with additional resources and by bringing in

communication science and behavioural experts who would work closely with the provinces.

ii. Provincial departments of Disaster Management in Gaza and Inhambane should expand

programmes to improve overall levels of disaster related education so that people have a stronger



understanding of risks from extreme events such as floods. While this is already being done,

effective strategies like this need to be scaled up and provided greater resources.

iii. Provincial governments in Gaza and Inhambane should work towards improving livelihood

opportunities for local communities, particularly in rural areas, and support income generation so

that people have increased levels of income and savings to provide a buffer when affected by

extreme events.

iv. Bespoke flood warnings, pertinent to the impacts for specific areas, and relevant to the expected

magnitude of the flood and recommended response need to be developed. These must be bottom

up approaches.

Physical / technological approaches

v. ARA-Sul, in collaboration with INGC and provincial governments of Gaza and Inhambane, should

build flood regulating infrastructure to control and manage the flow of flood water in the Limpopo

basin. Tis would not only require greater coordination with upstream nations, but also the building

of large flood attenuation infrastructure .

vi. ARA-Sul, in collaboration with INGC and the provincial government of Gaza, should investigate the

viability of a barrage to prevent and/or minimise storm surges, and other measures to reduce

saltwater intrusion.

vii. Gaza province should build more formal housing structures for the rural population to move them

from flood-risk to non-flood risk areas (based on existing floor risk zoning). To provide adequate

incentives to move, these houses should be electrified, have adequate drinking water supply and

sanitation facilities, and other essentials. This will also enable the implementation of household

water harvesting systems, which will minimise the use of water sourced from the river or wells. This

may require the sourcing and securing of additional funding. This is already being done, and this

programme should be scaled up and receive high priority. The fact that the government of

Mozambique is already trying to provide people with a second home and incentivizing people to

move or at least store valuable belongings and legal papers in a second home on higher ground

suggests the approach is economically viable, as was indicated to the authors of this paper during

field visits and in-person interviews with officials. Disaster Management officials interviewed

indicated that the project had potential to scale up and the government had plans to increase the

population size targeted.

viii. Disaster management agencies in Gaza and Inhambane provinces should improve the

implementation of early warning systems, and ensure that systems are accessible to the entire

population in the basin. This may require the review of current emergency/disaster management

structures and systems, and then the implementation of necessary improvements, including

engaging with transboundary flood warning systems. Existing early warning systems in the Limpopo

basin have proven helpful, so this strategy should be enhanced.

ix. During disaster events, it is essential that information on the related events is shared in a timely

manner. Implementing technical solutions such as sirens or radio notifications to warn people of

approaching flood waters, would ensure that information is shared. To supplement these existing

approaches, innovative ICT should be used such as SMS alerts, which have shown to be successful

in several areas for climate and health related disasters. Gaza and Inhambane provincial

departments of disaster management should invest in an applied research and pilot programme to

design and test SMS-based alert systems and identify glitches and necessary recalibrations of such

systems to be more locally applicable and effective (and to also reduce chances of misuse).



x. INGC and the provincial departments should implement a digital information system to enable data

monitoring and information sharing at local, regional, national, and basin level in relation to

disaster response.

xi. Provincial departments of health and the national health directorate should invest in a digital

information system to similarly enable health related data monitoring and information sharing at

local, regional, and national levels in relation to health – particularly climate related health impacts.

This will, for example, improve disease surveillance and enable a proper comprehension of the

linkages between health and disasters. This will enable the design and implementation of effective

climate adaptation strategies in the health sector.


xii. The national government should update land-use and human settlement plans/strategies through

collaboration with various institutions (especially the two provinces of Gaza and Inhambane), and

should seamlessly incorporate climate change in land use planning, which is a low-regret option. In

addition, the monitoring of established land use plans/strategies should be promoted in light of

climate change, to assess successes and shortcomings, and enhance factors that have worked so as

to be better prepared for climate change. This should be an ongoing effort at all levels of

government.

xiii. INGC, as well as local universities, should continue research efforts that are focused on climate

related extreme events and disasters, as well as on the human health impacts of the same.

Research should also be scaled up at the local/urban level, to enable responsive disaster

preparedness in all parts of Gaza and Inhambane, and to inform disaster management plans in

these provinces. This ongoing research should be annually integrated into all such plans, as

opposed to a one-time effort.

xiv. INGC, working with Gaza and Inhambane provinces, should ensure the effective implementation of

disaster management plans that are already in place. Strengthening disaster management

approaches and institutions overall will automatically also build adaptive capacity to climate related

disasters.

xv. The national government should set up an institutional mechanism – such as a special committee

or task force – to enable cross-sectoral information and knowledge sharing. In addition, this will

catalyse the design and implementation of climate resilience interventions that can benefit

multiple sectors.

xvi. The national and provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of health should continue to

conduct research and/or leverage the research conducted by international and regional institutions

on how to improve human health and nutritional status in the population, because a healthier and

more food secure population automatically has better adaptive capacity to respond to changes.

The national treasury could devote more resources to funding efforts to improve nutrition and food

security in the Limpopo basin.

xvii. INGC and provincial disaster management agencies should improve and expand community

involvement in disaster response efforts, such as the community based efforts already in place that

have started demonstrating positive impacts. These could receive more resources to be scaled up.

xviii. Provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of health as well as disaster management should

collaborate to develop and implement more community awareness programs, which not only focus



on disaster related impacts, but also on the health impacts associated with disasters. In addition,

education on health impacts of climate change specifically should also be conducted.

xix. Implement overall health focused programs, such as vaccination and family planning drives. A

healthy population is a more resilient population, whether to climate or other types of shocks.

These efforts are already underway but could receive a boost so that population health becomes a

priority.

C3.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to consider

A great deal is already bring done in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique in terms of Disaster Risk Reduction,

Disaster Preparedness, and Disaster Management. Many of these initiatives have shown significant success,

as is evidenced by the lower levels of deaths and displacement in the 2013 floods, compared to earlier

floods.

Thus, there is no requirement to “reinvent the wheel” and suggest brand new approaches simply for the

sake of novelty. The primary recommendation for the human safety and health sector is as follows:

I. Strengthen resilience by increasing or expanding current approaches to disaster management

This will require additional financial and human resources, but as past experience in Gaza province

in particular has demonstrated, this will be money well spent.

These Disaster Management approaches include community-based disaster warning networks and

response protocols; the provision of a second home for people to save their valuable belongings in,

located in a non flood risk area in Gaza; increased early warning systems including the use of new

technologies; the introduction of ICT systems for disaster warning and response etc. These

strategies are, and would continue to be, the responsibility of INGC and provincial disaster

management authorities.

Disaster response and management should, of course, be coupled with disaster risk reduction. In this

context, certain physical interventions could be promising strategies.

II. For the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), build flood control infrastructure such as a dam

with flood gates and flood control design elements. The most destructive floods are on the

Limpopo main stem. Flood control and regulation structures on this river could considerably

improve the response to flooding. ARA-Sul and INGC should work with Gaza province to implement

this. The Mapai dam could be one such option, if thoroughly investigated and found feasible.

III. For the coastal sub-region, investigate building a barrage or other physical barriers like dykes to

reduce damage from storm surges. This could help reduce the impacts of flooding and keep

seawater out of low-lying coastal lands. This intervention too would be the responsibility of ARA-Sul

and INGC, working in close coordination with the province of Gaza.

IV. To better understand the impact that climate change is having on human health in Gaza and

Inhambane, improve disease surveillance and monitoring of climate related health conditions.

This will help provide an evidence base and indicate trends, areas of occurrence etc. More

information in the hands of health care providers will allow better adaptation of the health sector

to climate change and related impacts. While the responsibility for implementation would lie with



provincial departments of health, this could also be a strategy applied more widely at the national

level.

C4. Built Economic Infrastructure

C4.1 Vulnerability of the Built Economic Infrastructure Sector in the Limpopo Basin

The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of built economic infrastructure (including linear

infrastructure like roads and telecom cables but also power supply infrastructure) in the Limpopo basin

in Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main stem of the Limpopo River.

Several studies have shown how floods in 2000, 2007, and most recently in 2013 wreaked havoc on roads,

causing millions of dollars’ worth of damage to road networks around the basin. The damage done to

transportation infrastructure such as roads has a compounding effect on climate vulnerability in the region,

since it reduces or negates entirely the mobility of affected populations, thereby reducing their adaptive

capacity. Moreover, it hampers commercial activity such as the carriage of goods, and lower levels of

economic activity in turn lead to lower incomes, further constraining adaptive capacity. In the same way,

reduced transportation facilities affects the movement of food, preventing access to necessary supplies for

populations in need, thereby having negative impacts on their adaptive capacity in the form of good health.

In a region that has limited road networks and inadequate connectivity as it is, the impacts of extreme

weather events such as floods exacerbates vulnerability. This is also true of flood impacts on Information

and Communications Technology (ICT) infrastructure, which created disruption in communities’ ability to

cope with external shocks, and the loss of which is detrimental to productive economic activity.

Sub-regional Perspective In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), greater flooding is likely due to climate change,

as a result of increased heavy rainfall events. In particular, increased rainfall activity is anticipated.

In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), climate change projections indicate more variable rainfall, including more heavy rainfall events. This could contribute to more frequent and more intense floods.

In the coastal sub-region, rising sea levels and elevated coastal erosion are likely to result in more flooding from coastal inundation and from storm surges. Being a low-lying area near the mouth of the main stem of the Limpopo, this also makes the area vulnerable to flooding when water levels in the main stem overflow.

C4.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Built Economic Infrastructure

Socioeconomic approaches

i. The provinces of Gaza and Inhambane should enhance their existing activities to enable

diversification of livelihoods and opportunities for value-addition and upskilling, as well as greater



access to markets for agricultural products and value-added agricultural goods. This is likely to result

in more people living in higher-density areas such as towns or cities. With greater convergence of

populations in certain areas, it will become easier to provide them access to adequate, well

maintained and operated infrastructure. This would be the responsibility of provincial economic

development directorates or agencies, including those responsible for small business development.


ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, as well as the national government, should create regulatory

frameworks that ensure private developers (including international actors such as the Chinese, who

are very active in this area) will develop infrastructure that addresses current climate impacts,

minimises the impacts that are already prevalent, and/or incorporates the currently existing climate

regimes. An example of this is building underground power lines in areas that are regularly flooded.

Flood zone mapping could help prioritize areas where such infrastructure is most needed, or most at-

risk?

iii. National and provincial governments (Gaza and Inhambane) should regularly conduct engineering

reviews of existing infrastructure specifically to identify climate adaptation needs.

iv. National and provincial governments should collaborate with the insurance industry to promote

regular system and infrastructure maintenance, taking climate variability and change explicitly into

account.

v. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should update existing infrastructure to deal with anticipated climate

impacts, where feasible. An example of this would be raising the heights of dams and dikes,

depending on the impacts that are considered likely in the majority of climate change scenarios. This

is particularly applicable in Gaza province, where the bulk of existing infrastructure lies.

vi. INGC and provincial disaster management agencies should work in collaboration with builders,

developers, and contractors to develop an early warning system and/or monitoring framework that

ensures early detection of material climate risks that are likely to result in damage to the

infrastructure.

vii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should ensure that all future infrastructure development prioritizes

adaptable infrastructure that can deal with multiple climate impacts, and can also be easily updated

and changed in future depending on the anticipated climate. An example of this is building a dam

that stores water during droughts, and also regulates or diverts flood water during flood events. This

dam would have to be large in order to contribute to flood attenuation, but could be valuable for the

region.

viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop back-up/alternate infrastructure to be utilised in

instances when climate related events impact existing infrastructure. This can include launching a

widespread programme for installing household/building solar electricity.


ix. National level and provincial level planning departments and public works departments should

develop a best-practice guide for effective management of existing infrastructure in changing

climates. This guide should be a cross-sectoral and inter-departmental guide that helps to integrate

climate aspects in the management process and all operational processes, and also provides guidance

on how to address climate related disasters. Regular updates (i.e. every 5 years) will ensure that the

guide is relevant.



x. National and provincial planning departments and departments of public works should prepare

guidance on better design and siting of public infrastructure, taking into account current climate

variability and anticipated climate change.

xi. National planners and the national public works department should develop an infrastructure

planning/development framework that utilises a risk rating system to identify areas where

infrastructure development should be promoted and/or prohibited. This framework should also be

regularly updated to reflect continuous increase in available climate data.

xii. National planners, including ARA-Sul in the water resources planning and management field, should

develop an infrastructure planning/development regulatory framework that ensures that climate

related aspects are considered throughout the entire project planning and development process, and

not only in the late stages of the project cycle (as currently done through the EIA and ESIA process).

This will ensure that climate variability and change are explicitly and by law integrated into the

infrastructure planning and project / programme development initiation stage.

C4.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies

Given that floods are the most destructive climate related impact on built economic infrastructure

(including linear infrastructure and power supply), the primary approach to reducing vulnerability in this

sector is to reduce the physical impact of floods. This can occur through flood control and management

infrastructure.

Thus the central recommendation for this sector is as follows:

I. Prioritise land use planning as well as flood risk zoning that prevents the siting and construction

of important infrastructure in flood-prone areas, including when taking climate change into

consideration. This is challenging because much of the population in the Limpopo basin lives in

flood prone areas, and infrastructure such as roads are necessary to serve them, and to improve

their overall well-being and adaptive capacity. However, investment frameworks should take into

account climate change and avoid forseeable and preventable damage to infrastructure by building

it away from areas with the highest risk (this would also be an incentive to shift economic activity

and human settlements away from high risk areas).

In addition to better planning about the design and siting of infrastructure, two specific approaches in

different sub-regions could be as follows:

Invest in flood control and management infrastructure, to better regulate the flows during high water

levels and to divert flood waters away from critical infrastructure.

II. For the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), build flood control infrastructure such as a dam

with flood gates and flood control design elements. The most destructive floods are on the

Limpopo main stem. Flood control and regulation structures on this river could considerably

improve the exposure of infrastructure in this region to floods.

III. For the coastal sub-region, build a barrage or other physical barriers like dykes to reduce

seawater intrusion and the impacts of sea level rise. This could help reduce the impacts of coastal

flooding and keep seawater out of low-lying coastal lands, reducing impacts of floods and salinity

on infrastructure.



C5. Ecosystems and Conservation

C5.1 Vulnerability of the Ecosystems and Conservation Sector in the Limpopo

Basin

The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the Limpopo basin arises

from direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health. With temperature rise,

there are likely to be changes in flora and fauna of the region, including invasive species, range shifts or

expansions, and competition for habitat or food sources. Some species may be less capable of adapting

than others. The prospect of disruption in ecosystems is particularly challenging for conservation areas and

national parks, which have the potential to bring in large amounts of tourism revenue but, if climate change

is not adequately adapted to, could suffer from degradation and extreme events such as wildfires, also

losing tourism potential.

Sub-regional Perspective Ecosystem vulnerability is particularly of concern in the western (Limpopo main stem) sub-

region, as this is home to the transboundary conservation area).

Ecosystem changes could also affect marine biodiversity, leading to shocks to the local fisheries industry in the coastal sub-region. Sea level rise could affect ecosystems upstream.

Climate change impacts such as high evaporation rates could prove extremely damaging for wetlands and the network of surface ponds (“machongos”) in the inland region (i.e. the Changane sub-basin).

C5.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Ecosystems and Conservation


i. National and provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of tourism as well as environmental

and forestry should initiate a programme to consult with the local (rural) population to ascertain

what the indigenous knowledge is on conservation. Validation of this research will need to be

conducted with scientific research. This could be done in collaboration with local universities.

ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should implement regular knowledge sharing with the local

population to educate them on sustainable fishing and hunting (i.e. focused particularly on

minimising over-exploitation of species, especially in light of anticipated climate change impacts).

iii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should promote sustainable fishing and hunting practices. Using

innovative fish farming practices on the Gaza coast, for example, could not only ensure human

livelihoods, but could potentially also be a business opportunity and allow for income

diversification.

iv. ARA-Sul and the two provinces, as well as environment departments, should launch collaborations

with private sector entities to implement local water stewardship efforts (i.e. public-private-

community partnerships) that are focused on promoting healthy ecosystems and catchment

management.

v. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research on the dependence of their respective

populations in the Limpopo basin on local ecosystems. This will provide a better sense of how to go



about income diversification and will shed light on the economic value of local ecosystems,

providing an impetus to protect these from negative impacts of climate variability and change.


vi. The national and provincial departments of environment and forestry should develop digital

biodiversity and climate change information systems where up-to-date information and data can

be housed. This will also assist with effective conservation planning, as the strategies and

approaches planned will be based on relevant information. Similar approaches have proven

successful in South Africa through the efforts of CSIR.

vii. National and provincial departments of environment and forests should implement monitoring

systems that specifically track species and ecosystems responses to changing climate.


Tourism related

viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research and a climate risk assessment for eco-

tourism sites along the basin. This will ensure a better understanding of changes to the

ecosystems and to the tourist sites that are vulnerable to climate impacts, and will therefore

enable the development of site-specific climate adaptation interventions.

ix. The department of tourism, at the national and provincial levels, should develop a tourism and

recreational areas plan/strategy through cross-sector collaboration. The plan/strategy should be

focused on further growing the eco-tourism sector (through natural systems) based on sustainable

mechanisms. However, in an effort to grow the eco-tourism sector and in promoting socio-

economic development, it is essential that biodiversity should simultaneously be conserved. In

addition, eco-tourism plans/strategies should incorporate envisaged changes in climate and the

resultant changes in ecosystems.

x. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, in collaboration with the national department of tourism, should

develop a digital portal that houses eco-tourism information, as well as the above listed

information related to ecosystems and biodiversity. Public accessibility to this information system

should be promoted.

xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should identify and develop natural buffers around their tourism

sites that are also ecologically important or fragile.

xii. At a national level, the environment department (through inter-departmental efforts) should

conduct research and promote the expansion of species conservation and seed storage.

xiii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should expand the use of early warning systems that detect the

manifestation of climate related phenomena that have the potential of materially impacting the

eco-tourism sector should be developed.

xiv. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research on the dependence of local rural

populations on the eco-tourism sector. This should include a focus on how future changes in

climate will influence the dependence of the rural population on eco-tourism. In other words,

apart from employment opportunities, this effort should elucidate how tourism and ecosystems

conservation benefit the local population.

xv. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, in collaboration with the national departments of tourism and

environment and forestry, should conduct further research into developing recreational areas



with climate resilient trees. This will promote the conservation of species as well as promote

species diversity.

Species / Biodiversity related

xvi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct detailed and in-depth local level research focused

on species diversity, ecosystem status and the identification of endangered species, specifically

with a climate change lens added on.

xvii. The national government should regularly update existing biodiversity and conservation strategies

to include climate adaptation. This should be conducted in consultation with different sectors, so

as to ensure that the synergies and inter-dependencies with difference sectors are incorporated.

In addition, the manner in which sustainable poverty reduction and development objectives can

be met through biodiversity and conservation should also be discussed. While these strategies

already exist and do integrate climate change, annual updates would better reflect emerging

climate science.

xviii. Gaza and Inhambane should further develop strategies to promote the protection of endangered

species in the Limpopo basin, especially taking into account climate change. This includes

expanding the current list of protected areas and national parks, to allow for expanded species

resilience.

xix. In the instance of wildfires, it is essential that Gaza’s and Inhambane’s disaster management

agencies should specifically address climate change risk in their wildfire management plans. This

will potentially reduce the damage to terrestrial ecosystems during wildfire events. In addition,

fire resistant and/or fire adaptive species should be promoted. As wildfires can also promote the

growth and abundance of certain species, a study on species diversity and adaptive capacity

should be conducted by each of the provinces; adaptive species should be promoted.

xx. Ecosystem connectivity should be promoted by provincial and national environment departments.

These critical connectivity systems should be designed to incorporate current and future climate

impacts. This will not only ensure that ecosystems are able to grow and expand, but that will

ensure that species are able to migrate when required, to cope with changing climate conditions

and habitats. Any new infrastructure should attempt to create as little disruption as possible.

xxi. Provincial forestry officials in Gaza and Inhambane should implement strict bush clearing, fishing

and hunting practices (i.e. implementing quotas), and should ensure compliance.

xxii. Gaza’s and Inhambane’s provincial environmental departments should implement an intensive

program to restore streams, rivers and wetlands to their natural state. This can be achieved

through the use of natural processes (such as vegetation) or scientific/technical approaches (such

as chemicals). A naturally robust water system will be more resilient to climate variability and

change.

xxiii. Provincial environmental departments in Gaza and Inhambane should implement an intensive

program to rehabilitate and revegetate river banks. This is beneficial both to terrestrial and

aquatic ecosystems. However, it is essential to utilize indigenous and climate resilient species that

do not compete with water users (by using large amounts of water). Exotic species that are

present should be removed (and any green waste material from such clearing can be used for

recycling purposes).

C5.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies



Maintenance of natural ecosystem health is the single most effective adaptation strategy for this sector.

Healthy, diverse, and robust ecosystems have stronger inherent capacity to adapt to changes in the

environment.

Thus, with a view on water resources, the following recommendations form the primary resilience strategy:

I. Implement Environmental Flows in rivers, particularly the Limpopo (and its tributaries): While

Mozambique has eflow requirements in existing policies, it is not clear that these are being

adequately or effectively implemented. Maintaining eflows will contribute to a healthy aquatic

ecosystem in the Limpopo basin, which will automatically make it a more resilient one. An allied

element is to promote riparian zones adequately in both Gaza and Inhambane.

II. Preserve ecosystem functioning: Prioritise the preservation and maintenance of healthy

landscapes to prevent forest cover loss, land degradation, and denudation. Protect mangroves in

coastal zones. Communities should be enabled to reduce the use of fuelwood, to ensure vegetation

cover remains robust and keeps overall ecosystems healthy. Several of the actions enumerated

above could be consolidated into an ecosystem-based approach to climate change adaptation.

Both of these would be the responsibility of the national department of environment and forestry, but with

the implementation taking place at the provincial level by officials in Gaza and Inhambane.

C6. Conclusion This appendix provides numerous adaptation and resilience options that can be used and further

investigated in the Limpopo Basin, Mozambique. However, the current socio-economic status of the

country means that all the strategies cannot be implemented simultaneously. It is for this reason that

Chapter 4 highlights strategies that should be prioritized, especially due to the cross-cutting nature of

benefits across multiple sectors.



APPENDIX D: Vulnerability Assessment

5. Vulnerability Assessment This appendix provides detailed vulnerability assessments for the following major economic sectors in the

Limpopo Basin. As major users of water, these sectors are therefore most likely to be impacted by changes

in water resources resulting from climate change:

5.1. Agriculture

This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Lower Limpopo Basin.

The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic processes are different in

each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current vulnerability to climate

variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from climate change are likely

to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in Chapter 2 for each of the

vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the indicators have been

summarised.

In the inland region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and

data review conducted):

Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very

low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high

amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the

future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic

activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in

greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal

water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to

geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences

floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an

increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure

of the sector is high.

Sensitivity: The rural population is largely dependent on subsistence farming, and is therefore

highly sensitive to climate processes, flood, droughts and changes in water resource availability.

Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high.

Adaptive Capacity: The region is very rural with the poor population having no formal income. In

addition, there are not any large scale irrigation projects. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the

sector is poor.

Water Supply and

Sanitation


supply


water supply



Disasters

Human settlements

Health

Economic Infrastructure

ICT (information &

communications

technology)


Electricity production,

supply & access

Conservation and

Ecosystems



Ecosystem function/flows

Species conservation

Tourism

Agriculture


and food security


(incl. irrigation)



Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the

sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.

Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity

Current Vulnerability

Future Exposure


Climatic Factors High High High Poor High High High

Water Availability High High High Poor High High High

Flood Events High High High Poor High High High

Drought Periods High High High Poor High High High

In the western region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and


Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a

result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In

addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream

basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.

Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet

seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,

frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,

although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation

purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events

(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and

quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure of the sector is medium for all

indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In the future, exposure is expected to be

high for all indicators except Climatic Factors.

Sensitivity: The rural population is largely dependent on subsistence farming and agriculture. There

is large potential for crop diversification (to tap into opportunities offered by climate change) that

has been explored but not to a large degree. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is medium.

Adaptive Capacity: Although there have been many measure that have been implemented in the

region, these strategies do not reach the entire population in rural areas. Floods however in the

past resulted in large losses in agricultural production throughout the region. However, the

irrigation schemes help minimise the impacts of droughts, although they are not accessible to all

citizens. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average for all indicators expect for

floods, which is poor.




Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium Medium

Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Average Medium High High

Flood Events High Medium High Poor High High High

Drought Periods High Medium High Average High High High

In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and




Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average

MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although

slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall

events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which

impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high

yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the

region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding

due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these

factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water

intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure on the

sector is medium for all indicators except floods, which is high. In future, the exposure will be

medium for Climatic Factors and droughts, while exposure to changes in water availability and

floods will be high.

Sensitivity: Due to the types of agriculture practiced on the coast, the region is not very sensitive to

climate. However, salt water intrusion and floods will result in increases the impacts on the sector.

Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is medium for all indicators except Climatic Factors, which

is low.

Adaptive Capacity: Apart from mangroves, the rural communities have little adaptive capacity for

current climate variability and for climate change. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is

poor.



Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimated Future Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Poor Low Medium Low

Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium High High

Flood Events High Medium High Poor High High High

Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium

Summary

The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is primarily a function of water

availability, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly droughts and floods. For all three sub-

regions, current vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how

vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:

Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region







Climatic Factors High High Medium Medium Low Low

Water Availability High High Medium High Medium High

Flood Events High High High High High High

Drought Periods High High High High Medium Medium



5.2. Human Safety and Health This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the human safety and health sector in the

Mozambican Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-

climatic processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the

current vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting

from climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in

Chapter 2 for each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the

indicators have been summarised.

In the inland region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature

and data review conducted):












Sensitivity: The population is largely rural with informal dwellings located in high risk areas. In

addition, people have limited access to health services. They are therefore highly sensitive to

floods, droughts and changes in water resource availability. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector

is high.

Adaptive Capacity: The region is very rural and poor, with no formal income to adapt to the

impacts of climate change. In addition, the flood management strategies that have been initiated

have not reached the rural population in the Changane Catchment. Therefore, the adaptive

capacity of the sector is poor.


sector in this Inland region is illustrated in the table below.


Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors High High High Poor High High High




In the western region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature














quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure of the sector is medium for all

indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In the future, the exposure will be high

for all indicators except Climatic Factors.

Sensitivity: Although the region has a few urban areas, there is high poverty and the population is

largely rural. Human health is also of concern, due to malnutrition and a lack of sufficient health

facilities. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for all indicators except Climatic Factors,

which is medium.

Adaptive Capacity: There are numerous strategies that have been implemented successfully, such

as early warning systems and relocation during floods. However, these strategies are not accessible

to everyone. In addition, rural poverty is a concern, thus influencing the ability to adapt to health

incidences. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average.




Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium Medium

Water Availability Medium High High Average High High High

Flood Events High High High Average High High High

Drought Periods High High High Average High High High

In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature












sector is medium for all indicators except floods, which is high. In the future, the exposure will

likely be medium for Climatic Factors and droughts, while exposure to changes in water

resources and floods will be high.

Sensitivity: Although the region has a few urban areas, there is high poverty and the population is

largely rural. There area is also located at a low altitude and is exposed to sea level rise. Therefore,



the sensitivity of the sector is high to all indicators except Climatic Factors, which is low, and

drought periods, which is medium.

Adaptive Capacity: There are numerous strategies that have been implemented successfully, such

as relocation during floods. However, these strategies are not accessible to everyone, and people

still reside in high risk areas. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average.



Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future

Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Average Low Medium Low

Water Availability Medium High High Average High High Medium


Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium High

Summary

The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector is the occurrence of

climate related disasters, primarily floods. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the human

safety and health sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to









Climatic Factors High High Medium Medium Low Low

Water Availability High High High High High Medium


Drought Periods High High High High Medium High

5.3. Water Supply and Sanitation This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the water supply and sanitation sector in the

Mozambican Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-

climatic processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the

current vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting

from climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in



In the inland region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on

the literature and data review conducted):














Sensitivity: Water supply and sanitation provision is relatively low throughout the basin, and the

rural population relies mostly on boreholes for water. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is

high for water resources and flooding, medium for droughts, and low for Climatic Factors.

Adaptive Capacity: The population in this area is very poor, and therefore does not have adequate

resources to provide themselves with adequate water and sanitation services. Therefore, the

adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators except climate factors. As climate factors

do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for this indicator is not a priority.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors High Low Medium Good Low High Medium



Drought Periods High Medium High Poor High High High

In the western region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on

the literature and data overview conducted above):











quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure on the sector is medium for all

indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In future, the exposure will be high for

all indicators except climatic factors.

Sensitivity: The urban population has access to water and sanitation services. However, the

population is largely rural and water supply and sanitation services provision is relatively low. The

rural population relies mostly on groundwater. In addition, the water supply infrastructure that is

available is aging, making it more vulnerable to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is

high for water resources and flooding, medium for droughts, and low for climate.

Adaptive Capacity: Alternative water supply and adequate sanitation provision for the rural

population is very low, although new infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will

improve adaptive capacity. In addition, the irrigation projects and dams that are in this region are



able to ensure water supply. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all

indicators except water resources, which is average, and climate factors which is good. As climate

factors do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for this indicator is not a

priority.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low



Drought Periods High Medium High Poor High High High

In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on












sector is medium for all indicators except flooding, which is high. In future, the exposure will

likely be medium for Climatic Factors and drought periods, while exposure to changes in water

availability and floods will be high.

Sensitivity: The urban population has access to water and sanitation services. However, the

population is largely rural and water supply and sanitation services provision is relatively low. In

addition, the water supply infrastructure that is available is aging, making it more vulnerable to

flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for water availability and flooding,

medium for droughts, and low for Climatic Factors.

Adaptive Capacity: The population is largely rural, and does not have the resources required to

adapt to water supply absences of water and sanitation services. Alternative water supply and

adequate sanitation for the rural population is very low, although new infrastructure projects are

currently under way, which will improve the adaptive capacity. For the urban population, water is

available, which is obtained from upstream water infrastructure. Therefore, the adaptive capacity

of the sector is poor for all indicators except water resources, which is average, and climate

factors which is good. As climate factors do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive

capacity for this indicator is not a priority.






Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure





Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium

Summary

The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is primarily due

to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the

water supply and sanitation sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is

estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:








Climatic Factors Low Medium Low Low Low Low

Water Availability High High High High High High


Drought Periods High High High High Medium Medium

5.4. Economic Infrastructure This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the Economic Infrastructure sector in the Lower

Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic processes

are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current vulnerability

to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from climate

change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in Chapter 2 for

each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the indicators

have been summarised.

In the inland region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the

literature and data review conducted):











on the sector is high.



Sensitivity: There is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this region. The roads that do exist

are rural, and are sensitive to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for flood

events, and low for all other indicators.

Adaptive Capacity: There are only rural roads in this region. There is no evidence of whether these

roads have been rehabilitated or whether tarred roads will be installed. Therefore, the adaptive

capacity of the sector is average for flood events. As all other indicators do not directly influence

this sector, the adaptive capacity for the indicators is not a priority.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Factors High Low Medium Good Low High Medium

Water Availability High Low Medium Good Low High Medium


Drought Periods High Low Medium Good Low High Medium

In the western region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the













indicators except flood events, which is high. In future, the exposure will be high for all indicators

except Climatic Factors.

Sensitivity: There is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this region, except for in the urban

areas which have various Economic Infrastructure (such as electricity and ICT), and the Massingir

dam. The existing infrastructure is sensitive to flooding. Hydro-electricity is also sensitive to

changes in water resources. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for flood events,

medium for changes in water availability, and low for all other indicators.

Adaptive Capacity: Existing infrastructure in the region is relatively old, which makes the adaptive

capacity poor. Although there are new infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will

improve the adaptive capacity, the projects are not widespread. The adaptive capacity of the

energy sector is poor because of the negative impacts a lack of water availability has on hydro-

power generation. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average for flood events and

poor for changes in water availability (since water is required for energy production). As all other



indicators do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for the indicators is not a

priority.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure



Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium High High


Drought Periods High Low Medium Good Low High Medium

In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the











intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure of the

sector is medium for all indicators except flood events, which is high. In future, the exposure will

be medium for Climatic Factors and drought periods, while exposure to changes in water

availability and flood events will be high.

Sensitivity: Besides a few key roadways, there is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this

region, except for in the urban areas which have various Economic Infrastructure (such as

electricity and ICT). The existing infrastructure is sensitive to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of

the sector is high for flood events and low for all other indicators.

Adaptive Capacity: There existing infrastructure is relatively old. However, there are new

infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will improve the adaptive capacity. The

projects, however, are not widespread. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average

for flood events. As all other indicators do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity

for the indicators is not a priority.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure



Water Availability Medium Low Low Good Low High Medium




Drought Periods Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low

Summary

The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of economic infrastructure in the Limpopo basin in

Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main stem of the Limpopo River. For

all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the economic infrastructure sector in the Mozambican

Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as

follows:








Climatic Factors Low Medium Low Low Low Low

Water Availability Low Medium Medium High Low Medium


Drought Periods Low Medium Low Medium Low Low

5.5. Conservation and Ecosystems This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the

Lower Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic

processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current

vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from

climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in



In the inland region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on












on the sector is high.

Sensitivity: The Banhine the Zinave National Parks, which are an important conservation and

tourist attraction, are located in this region. The park, as well as the aquatic ecosystems, also

support the livelihood of communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in

climate as this influence the preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the

sector is high for all indicators.



Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implemented. However, the over-

exploitation of species (because they serve as a source of livelihood) is a major concern. Therefore,

the adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climatic Induces High High High Poor High High High




In the western region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on













indicators except flood events and drought periods, which are high. In the future, exposure will

be high for all indicators except Climatic Factors.

Sensitivity: The Limpopo National Park, which is an important conservation and tourist attraction,

is located in this region. The park, as well as the aquatic ecosystems, also support the livelihood of

communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in climate as this influence the

preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the sector is high for all indicators.

Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implanted. However, the over-

exploitation of species is a major concern as they serve as livelihood. Therefore, the adaptive

capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.




Vulnerability

Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climate High High High Poor High Medium High

Water Resources High High High Poor High High High

Floods High High High Poor High High High

Droughts High High High Poor High Medium High



In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on












sector is medium for all indicators except flooding, which is high. In future, the exposure will be

medium for climate and droughts, while water resources and floods will be high.

Sensitivity: There are no national parks located in this region. However, the river and coastal areas

serve as important aquatic ecosystems and tourist attractions, and also support the livelihood of

communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in climate as this influence the

preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the sector is high to all indicators

except climate, which is medium.

Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implanted. However, the over-

exploitation of species is a major concern as they serve as livelihood. Therefore, the adaptive

capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.




Current Exposure

Current Sensitivity

Current Risk

Current Ad Capacity


Future Exposure


Climate Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium

Water Resources Medium High High Poor High High High

Floods High High High Poor High High High

Droughts Medium High High Poor High Medium High

Summary

The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the Limpopo basin arises from

direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health. For all three sub-regions,

current vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well

as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:








Climate High High High High Medium Medium

Water Resources High High High High High High

Floods High High High High High High

Droughts High High High High High High

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