TSB Design for Future

Climate Change

Design for Adaptation

21/11/12

Introduction

architecture

landscape

masterplanning

consultancy

research

An

interdisciplinary

practice...

areas of business

Future Design Code

WDA Project Lead - Project management,

design investigation and code author

our project team

Scenario research

and testing.

Identification of risks

Financial

Assessment and

cost analysis of

adaptation

measures

Analysis and

interrogation of

the business

case

Project Client -

Decision maker

on risk thresholds

and climate

change stance

Our research focussed on;

design elements, physical building and urban design solutions,

and

behavioural elements, new ways of living and working and the identification of

collective and individual adaptation strategies.

Exploration at Macro and Micro levels

areas of research

Ely Bridge- where is it?

Original Design Code targets

text

The D4FC methodology

- future climate scenarios

- identified risks

- research methodology

- responses to risk: The Future Climate Code measures

- key themes

- implementation

methodology

UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09)

three scenarios representing:

HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW emissions

three 30 year time periods:

2020s, 2050s, 2080s

a range of probability levels:

10%, 33%, 50%, 67% & 90%

example- Changes in annual , winter and summer

mean precipitation (%) at the 10, 50 and 90%

probability levels, for the 2080s under the

Medium emissions scenario.

Future Climate Scenarios

‘extreme reality’

high emissions in 2080, 10% probability

Wales average:

+7.1oC mean temperature

+10.6oC mean daily max summer temp

+57% winter precipitation - extreme

events

400mm sea level rise.

Year

‘changing world’

medium emissions in 2050, 50%

probability

Wales average:

+2.5oC mean temperature

+3.4oC mean daily max summer temp

+14% winter precipitation levels

200mm sea level rise.

Global CO2 emissions scenarios (GtC/yr)

from 2000 to 2100

Low emissions (SRES B1)

Medium emissions (SRES A1B)

High emissions (SRES A1FI)

2 scenarios chosen- 50:50 and 90:10

risk matrix mapping 11 risk areas

flooding &

precipitation .

subsidence .

increased

temperature .

regulations .

ecosystems .

food security .

health .

trade & business .

population, social

norms & attitudes .

insurance

Events like the 2003 European heatwave are likely

to become the norm by the end of this century

(under medium emissions scenario).

identified risks - increased temperature

Adapted from Schar et al. (2004)

Courtesy of the Committee of Climate Change

identified risks - flooding and increased precipitation

DIRECT IMPACTS

-Significant site flood risk ” from:

winter precipitation.

-Sea-level rise/storm surge events.

-Surface water/sewage risk due to

increase in extreme precipitation

events.

-Site (and building-specific) drainage

-Erosion risk from flooding

-Increased winter storm damage

-Increased probability of significant

snowfall events.

INDIRECT IMPACTS

Downstream flood risk.

Legacy flood defence implications?

Altered shoreline and land use in downtown

Cardiff.

Disrupted infrastructure - energy

- water quality/availability

- transport, e.g. bridges, flooding.

Land-use changes across watershed (and

beyond)

Changes to availability and cost of food.

IMPACTS

Greater incidences of insect born diseases.

Increase in air pollution resulting in respiratory illnesses.

Heat stress for residents as a result of warmer, dryer summers.

Water stress as a result of constrained water supply.

Increased demand on emergency and health services.

identified risks - health

Daily mortality, 75+,

London Government

Office Region,

England and Wales,

August 2003

Source:http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=558

Research benchmarks - Cardiff Weather Data

slide title

‘extreme reality’

high emissions to

2080, 10% probability

‘changing world’

medium emissions to

2050, 50% probability

?

?

Climate Classifications

real time scenarios- Porto comparison

real time scenarios - Porto character

real time scenarios- Brisbane comparison

real time scenarios- Brisbane character

closest comparable locations

measures to reduce risks

increased

temperature

health

population, social

norms & attitudes

regulations

ecosystems

flooding & precip.

subsidence

trade, bus. &

insurance

food security

design for

comfort

water

management

evolving

lifestyles

shading direct

sun

air movement

green

infrastructure

energy

fluvial flooding

pluvial

flooding

outdoor living

food security

community

governance

MEASURES CATEGORIES RISKS

measure 1.1/03 -B50:

“Reduce overheating effect of

summer sun by providing full

shading to south facing

openings.”

...all windows will need full solar

shading in summer months: fixed

louvred shades; canopies; trees;

pergolas with vegetation; seasonal

awnings; extended eaves...

measures: orientation

measure 1.1/04 -B50:

“Adopt a grid to accommodate

street trees and landcape

buffers..”

“ to prevent excess of solar gain into

hard surfaced areas and building

fabric.”

measures: orientation

measure 1.1/02 -B80:

“Adopt a variant approach to

house-types to reflect south or

north facing front facade”

...internal layouts should be adapted

depending on whether they address

the street to the north or south. Main

living areas to the south, with direct

outdoor access via garden or

balcony...

LOW

IMPLEMENTATION RISK

Typically, this could result in additional floor area of 2%.

south

addressing street to the south addressing street to the north

main living main living

measure 2.1/02/ -M50

“Capitalise on amenity use of

designated flood areas.”

measures: managing water in public open space

allow for change...

low lying areas put to productive use

while flood incidences are few. When

no longer appropriate, adapt to

landscaped play space and finally give

over to wetland wildlife zones...

...opportunities for place making,

wellbeing and recreation in all

scenarios...

diagrammatic masterplan

...create amenity space is low lying areas that is

allowed to flood. Co-ordinate these spaces with

street SUDs strategy to ensure storm runoff ...

climate

street

hierarchy

Sun streets run

parallel to green

streets with

connecting

walkways.

Undulating lowlands

along the river bank

meet the green

streets and take flow

into the watercourse.

street character

landscape integrated into all areas...improved air quality,

attractive environment, good water management...

the 31 measures mapped against themes

Baseline-----

based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost:

associated costs

IMPLEMENTATION

RISK INDICATOR

Measures are assessed for

Capital Cost Uplift.

LOW: %1 - 3% ccu

MEDUIM: 4% - 8% ccu HIGH: over 8% ccu

(unmarked measures carry no significant ccu.)

based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost:

Red measures:

Capital Cost Uplift: £14,580

(25%)

associated costs

measures-

flood risk defences

flood amenity areas

tree/ landscape buffers in street design

overhanging eaves

green roof

bike storage

based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost:

Amber measures:

Capital Cost Uplift: £6,599

(11.5%)

associated costs

measures-

additional street trees

house typology (N/S design)

based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost:

Green measures:

Capital Cost Uplift: £36,315

(63%) note windows £16, 950

associated costs

measures-

outdoor living design

enhanced on plot landscape

windows openings multi adjustable

refit outdoor storage for

deliveries

internal ‘cool store’

ability to influence;

new build- getting it

right from the start

suburban- space to

change

high density existing?

new build- suburban- existing high density

Ely Bridge Masterplan- planning application

40% affordable housing

long term management potential

low density= capacity for change