Climate services for building local level resilience:

The IRAP project in Bangladesh

Timothy J. Finan

Saleh Ahmed

University of Arizona Columbia University (IRI)

Today’s Presentation

1. Some background on the evolution of climate information and emergence of climate science

2. Climate variability in Bangladesh and the role of climate information

3. The IRAP approach: a proposal for climate-smart development in Bangladesh

Background: understanding climate variability as part of a decision system

1. “Indigenous knowledge” about climate always a factor in livelihood systems for farmers, herders, and fishers – Examples: Saudi Bedouins, West African swamp rice producers,

Brazilian subsistence in the backlands, Farmers’ Almanac for US farmers

2. Emergence of climate science in the 1980s: greater understanding of dynamical relationships between ocean and atmosphere: seasonal forecasts, drought forecasting, climate change modeling, hydro-climatology

3. New challenges: limits of climate science, what products needed, how to package and communicate: “co-production”

Climate Variability in Bangladesh

• Sudden-onset extreme events: cyclones, “nor’westers”, extreme flooding, storm surges (early warning systems, disaster management systems)

• Expected variation: monsoon seasonal flooding: river bank erosion, haor-beel flooding, drought (flood forecasting, drought forecasting, water management practices, eg. amman, boro paddy systems, variety changes)

• Slow-onset trends: drought frequency, anomalies in precip patterns—eg. length, periodicity of monsoons, saltwater intrusion, sea-level rise (less information, less “science”)

Seasonal flooding in Kurigram

Char bank erosion in Barisal

School cum cyclone shelter Community disaster management plan Animal shelter (killa) in Barisal

Thus, in general,

1. Climate information more available in the case of sudden onset events

2. Climate understanding of slow onset events still evolving

3. WHERE information is available, accessible, and reliable, more adaptation options

Central Research Questions

1. WHAT climate information is needed? (corollary: what are the limits to climate science)

2. HOW is climate information integrated into livelihood systems? (corollary: how is it transformed into adaptation options)

3. WHO does this? (corollary: what institutional infrastructure is needed)

4. WHAT difference does it make? (corollary: how are impacts measured)

Information to Adaption

Livelihoods, HHs,

Communities People

(affected by climate)

Climate Science

Community (BMD, IRI, etc.)

Translational Community

“Climate Brokers”

International Research

Applications Program (IRAP)

“ I N T E G R A T I N G C L I M A T E I N F O R M A T I O N A N D D E C I S I O N P R O C E S S E S F O R R E G I O N A L C L I M A T E R E S I L I E N C E "

A P P R O A C H :

F I V E P I L L A R S

O F I R A P

T I M E S C A L E S :

M O N T H S

D E C A D E S

C L I M AT E C H A N G E

Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in

Climate variability and Change in

Collaboration with “Stakeholders”

Understand/Quantify/Reduce Uncertainties Learn from the past, monitor the present, provide

relevant info on the future, co-produce climate

information

Identify Interventions (Technologies) that

Reduce Vulnerability E.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, water

holding capacity, build local capacity

Identify Policies and Institutional

Arrangements that reduce Vulnerability

and/or Transfer Risks Early Warning / Early Response Systems, Insurance,

Credit

Design evaluation at outset of targeted

interventions & engagement E.g., baselines, outputs vs outcomes

2

3

4

1

5

I R A P

A p p r o a c h

IRAP in Bangladesh: the Vision

• Create an institutional network: consortium of stakeholders (academic community, BMD, line ministry services, NGOs, CBOs, and donors) as the vehicle for the production and delivery of climate information to communities that “demand” it

• Compile and analyze (“warehouse”) existing data sets on community, HH, livelihood vulnerability creating national maps of climate information needs (and fill in the gaps through research)

• Enhance and expand the supply of climate applications as determined by local demand

• Integrate (“mainstream”) the climate-smart approach into existing development programming : eg. current NGO projects

• Evaluate the impacts of such climate-smart programming

Expectations???

• Climate variability but one factor constraining household welfare

• IRAP results from Caribbean suggest value-added from climate information, IF information is demanded and delivery channels are effective

• But, in Bangladesh the “climate footprint” is deep and will get deeper

• Through knowing local level climate impacts, entry points for climate information, adaptation options are more clearly understood

Work in Bangladesh

THANK YOU!