Climate Services Information System in support of decision

makingAnahit Hovsepyan

World Climate Applications & Services DivisionClimate Prediction and Adaptation Branch

Climate and Water Department

SASCOF-15, Thiruvananthapuram, India

23-25 September, 2019

Climate Services• Climate information is one of important elements in the

decision making matrix

• Climate information has value only when it is applied in decision making process and used

• Climate services refer to delivery of climate information and products from the scientific sources to stakeholders and end-users in a way that assists decision making

• Provision of services requires wide range of inputs: high-quality data from national , regional and global databases on temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture and ocean conditions, as well as vulnerability analyses, risk assessments, climate prediction, long-term projections and scenarios

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Global Framework for Climate Services

WMO spearheaded international initiative, coordinates efforts by the United Nations, governments and organizations to develop science-based climate information for various climate-sensitive sectors, by improving the availability and access to reliable climate information, methods, tools and systems through interdisciplinary activities

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Climate Services Information System (CSIS)

• The CSIS is the component of the GFCS most concerned with the generation and dissemination of climate information.

• It is the ‘operational core’ of the GFCS. It deals with climate data, monitoring, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal) and projection (centennial) activities.

• “CSIS is the system needed to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers.” (High Level Taskforce on GFCS)

• Commission for Climatology – driving the implementation of CSIS

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GFCS Goal:Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

Global Products

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• WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates -quarterly

• Need to include other large-scale indices and consider regional impacts in future Updates

• Global Seasonal Climate Update concept includes major general circulation features and large-scale oceanic anomalies around the globe

• GSCU – pre-operational issue - to be operational by 2020

Regional Climate Centres

• WMO RCCs are Centres of Excellence that produce regional climate products in support of regional and national climate activities and thereby strengthen capacity of WMO Members in a given region to deliver better climate services to national users

• WMO RCC serves primarily the NMHSs in the region!

• WMO RCCs do not duplicate or replace national responsibilities, rather complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who deliver all Warnings and national-scale products

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Regional Climate Centres worldwide

9http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc/rcc.php

Regional Climate Outlook Forums

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Key Limitations of RCOF outlooks

• Format unsuitable for applications in specific decision making

• Forecast skills not routinely evaluated/communicated• Lack of opportunities to implement new measures

reflecting progress in science• No systematic approach to provide regular updates as the

target season evolves• Very limited use of RCOF products or value addition at the

national level• Lack of user-tailored or targeted product packages/practical

constraints to engage users at the regional level– Space-time resolution inadequate for most user level decision

support

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Global RCOF Review 2017: Objectives

• Identify the lessons learnt, and good practices in RCOFs

• Identify opportunities and innovative approaches for RCOFs

• Explore possibilities to enhance/improve the capacity development benefits of RCOFs

• Consider possible expansion of the RCOF product portfolio

• Propose ways to make more effective delivery and communication of climate products and services for decision making in a sustainable manner

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RCOF review 2017: Next generation

• Adoption of objective seasonal forecasts to underpin RCOF products

• An expanded product portfolio, based on standardized operational practices, including

– climate monitoring,

– forecast verification,

– sub-seasonal products, and

– climate change-related products such as observed trends and attribution of extreme events

• Follow-up on product use in country-level decision-making processes

• Improved Partnership and User Engagement in RCOF process

• Training workshops targeting capacities required for RCOF operations

Piloting of development and institutionalization of objective seasonal forecasting schemes in selected regions

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Key milestones

• Objective climate forecasting: discussion paper - Considered by WMO Executive Council at its 69th session in May 2017

• EC-69 Decision 4.5/2 Sub-seasonal And Seasonal Forecasting Systems– adoption of objective sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts as an overarching technical

strategy, particularly at regional and national levels, promoted through RCOFs

• Publication of WMO Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts (WMO-No. 1220) - Sept 2018

• Global review of Regional Climate Centre functions - Nov 2018

• CBS/CCl Guidance on Operational Practices for Objective Seasonal Forecasting – to be published by 2020

• Operational Climate Prediction (OCP) Workshop series to be key drivers of good practices in partnership with research community

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Ongoing and Planned Actions for RCOFs

• Formation of a Task Force to guide operationalization of objective seasonal forecast systems towards next generation RCOF – NOAA, KMA, ECMWF/C3S, UKMO, CIMH, IRI, RIMES

• Selection of the RCOFs for two periods:– April-May: SASCOF, GHACOF and PRESASS

– October-November: ASEANCOF, PICOF, and Western South America (WCSACOF)

• Template “Recommendations for good practices for developing seasonal outlooks at regional and national level”

• Steering Committee(s) formed for each of RCOFs – reps from relevant RCC coordinating RCOF, regional partner (if any), expert(s) from TF facilitated by WMO – to develop an Implementation Plan - Standard Operating Procedure

• The implementation rolling process – to be done in several steps most of the actions will be taken by SC well before the RCOF in preparation stage

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CSIS implementation: National components

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National agenciesagriculture and forestry, marine

(coastal and ocean), water resources, health, energy, the environment and

disaster management, and other climate sensitive sectors;

National and local Govt. committees

dealing with policy formulation involving a consideration of

climatic issues

National Climate Outlook Forums

Universities and other Research institutions

Non-governmental organizations

Private/public partnerships

NMHSsPrimary climate

information provider

NCOFs/NCFs

GFCS Nat. Consultations

National Climate Outlook Forum• NCOFs are envisioned as an essential mechanism for promoting

inter-agency coordination and regular multi-stakeholder dialogue between information provider and users at the national level, which will support national level implementation of both the CSIS and the UIP pillars of the GFCS.

• NCOFs facilitate provision of standardized climate products based on high quality climate information from Global Producing Centers (GPCs), Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and relevant Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) at user-relevant scales.

Concept Note available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/opace/opace3/documents/NCOF-Concept-Note_28022018.pdf

Guidance document is under development

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Thank you