Climate Services:

The temperature is going up but so are the

opportunities!

John F. Henz, CCM

HDR Engineering, Inc.303 East 17th Avenue, Suite 700Denver Colorado 80203John.henz@hdrinc.com

John F. Henz: “roots”• BS Meteorology, U Wisc• 4 yrs in Air Weather

Service• MS Atmospheric Science,

CSU

• Geophysical R&D Corp

GRD Weather CenterCCM #270

• Henz Kelly & Associates• Henz Meteorological

Services (HMS)

• HDR Engineering, Inc of Omaha NE purchased HMS Nov 2000.

• HDR is a top twenty Architect & Engineering firm with over 5,500 owner-employees in 42 states and over 140 offices.Near $1B in 2006.

• Nat. Tech Advisor,Hydro-Meteorology

Increased awareness of climate change creates public and business needs

• Businesses want input for use in strategic planning.

• Cities/Counties/States are concerned with aging infra-structure impacts.

• Building design concerned with “green” fingerprint and sustainability.

• Engineers/architects grappling with changing design baselines.

The weather enterprise

Private sector

IdealSolution

Government sectorAcademic

So what should we do?

Reality: Climate services are a driving force in the market place.

Meteorology-Engineeringneed each other

• Many atmospheric science/meteorology departmentsco-located with engineering schools and/or environmental/natural resource departments.

• In school, do “the same problem sets” and in business solve the same problems = commonalities exist.

• New data sets provide the opportunities for meteorologists to quantitatively solve problems.

• Credentials count: PE, CCM, CFM, etc.

We need analytical meteorologists!

Opportunities abound

• New data sets and bases: WSR-88D, surface mesonets, profilers, ACARS, new satellites.

• Strong public awareness of climate change, global warming and natural hazards (2005 hurricane season).

• A myriad of problems to be solved and more coming onboard everyday.

Climate change has heightened interest in extreme weather

• Power utilities have to deal with climate change, related costs and carbon issues.

• Water suppliers concerned with changes in precipitation, runoff amount and timing and drought frequency, especially in western half of USA.

• Insurance companies are concerned with increased risk associated of severe weather.

• Aging infra-structure is at risk from increased flood and rain threats.

• Coastal areas want to plan for rising ocean levels.• Dam safety agencies concerned with extreme

precipitation event threats.

“some examples”

A “weather enterprise success”

• Jan 1,1997 Reno-Sparks NV hit by devastating flood that was under-forecast. NO flood response plan existed.

• Damage in $100M’s, airport closed a week, warehouse district a mess, fatalities and injuries.

• In 2003/4 HDR contracted by COE and Washoe County WR to develop a flood response plan and develop co-operative response. NWS CNRFC developed special aids.

• 2003/04 Reno-Sparks NV FRP developed based on 1997 flood.

• Dec31/Jan 1 2006 Reno/Sparks hit by “déjà vu flood”. Order of magnitude less damage, no fatalities, airport stayed open!

1997

2006

Climatic Indices – powerful tools• Multi-variate ENSO Index: Energy transport, cloudiness,

winds, SST in tropical Pacific (MEI, SOI)

• PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) – Primary North-South difference in sea temperature in Pacific Ocean is varying on shorter time scales –why?

• NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) – linked to changes in sea surface temperature conditions and heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean.

• AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) a harbinger of multi-year changes

• MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) Sends pulses of energy into sub-tropical jet stream.

Crucial climate information for strategic decision-making

 

SOI

PDO

MEI

NAO

AMO

PNA

MJO

Flathead Reservoir, MT Drought Management Plan (2002-2007)

• Balance water needs.

• Accurate identification of low flow/flood years.

• Maintain credibility with public and agencies.

• Make sure it works!• Climate change

concerns$100M

Recreation Jun-Sep

Hydro-Power

Winter

Minimumin-stream

flows

Flood Control

PoolSpr.

Normal vs. El Nino vs. La Nina Basin Precipitation

Regime Oct-Dec Inches(+/- avg.)

Oct-Mar Inches(+/- avg.)

La Nina =Wet

6.82”(+1.49”)

12.59”(+2.29”)

Normal 5.33” 10.33”

El Nino =Dry

4.85”(-0.48”)

8.52”(-1.81”)

Driest 10 yrs = drought

3.25”(-2.08”)

6.21”(-4.12”)

Flathead Lake Drought Management PlanPercent of Water Years (1951- 2003) from October to April with Correct DMP Activation Decision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Water Year Month

Per

cent

Cor

rect

(%

)

MEI Based DMP Activation FPRI Based DMP ActivationMEI + FPRI Based DMP Activation

NWS/NRCS WY Forecast or Runoff volume

WSR-88D – a climate tool too!

• Historical WSR-88D reflectivity, base velocity, QPE’s,, etc used in storm re-construction for insurance, design and basin calibration studies.

• Observations used to develop enhanced spatial and temporal precipitation distributions for design storm, flood plain delineation and extreme precipitation event documentation for dam safety.

The October weather pattern was “more July” than October.

• Storms formed along and north of the stationary front repeatedly from ~3PM to 3AM.

• “Train-echo” effect

• Flooding rains of 4-7” in 6 hrs72-80F

60-70F

Minneapolis, MN flood re-construction/basin calibration

• Our basin is located in the heavy rain track indicated by the NWS storm total rainfall estimate.

• The NWS QPE values produced a 40-60% under-estimate from observed rainfall and poor XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model output!

WSR-88D “Atmosphere-truthed Z-R”.GIS-based

• Atmosphere-truthed Z-R, i.e. QPF-based Z-R.

• GIS-based radar and basin data.

• XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model: ~90%+ correlation.

• ACARS detected LLJ = enhanced rainfall for 75 min. When input into the HDR Z-R runoff correlations improved 10-15 percent.

• Used to define flood-plains and evacuation.

October 4/5, 2005 SWWD WSR-88D Z-based Temporal Rain Distribution

vs. 100-yr SCS Type II used for designHourly Graphs of Basin Average Radar Estimated Rainfall Oct. 4th-5th, 2005 Event vs. SCS Curve Type II Curve (6.30" Total -

24-hour Event)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00

Time

Est

. Rai

nfa

ll

Pow ersLk

WilmesLk

WDraw South

WDraw North

WDraw Center

EastRavineSouth

EastRavineNorth

ColbyLk

CentralDraw

BaileyDraw

SCS TYPE II

Project has multi-million $ implications

HDR Energy clients

• Concerns with coal-fired power plant operations.

• Needs for expanded wind power generation and wind prediction.

• Insights on working within the carbon exchange system.

• Exploring water needs for ethanol plant development.

HDR Architecture clients

• Development of “green buildings”• Community planners are interested in

ways to reduce urban heat islands and associated energy consumption.

• Community sustainability has been embraced.

• Water quality and waste recycling are major issues with only partial solutions.

Solutions based on climate data and imaginative

applications

“A goal without a plan is a dream”

What do engineers want?• Data and information for problem solution.• Access to basic data and information.• Limited rhetoric; “just the facts, please!”• More quantitative information on climate

impacts on water supply, carbon exchange opportunities and global to micro-climate cause-effect relationships..

• More knowledgeable meteorologists and climatologists within companies to act as trusted problem solvers for clients.

The “weather enterprise solution”

Private sector: client problem interface

Providing solutions to

climate change

Government sector: data and information

Academic sector:

Training and research

Bottom line: What a wonderful time to be a

meteorologist!

• Opportunities are real – climate change and real-world use of new data sets.

• The next ten years should be another “golden age” for meteorology!

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

HDR Engineering, Inc.303 East 17th St, Suite 700Denver, Colorado 802031.303.764.1520www.hdrinc.com

Engineering, Consulting and Architectural Firm– 5,500+ employees– Architectural: hospitals,

federal, others– Transportation:

bridges, roads, rail – Water resources– Meteorology– Energy– Community Planning &

Urban Design– Construction Services– Environmental

john.henz@hdrinc.com

www.hdrweather.com