Climate Smart Forestry, BioMonitorand other outlook activities at EFI
Hans Verkerk
21.2.2019 | WWW.EFI.INT
Exchange of experiences in Forest Sector Outlook Studies and related work
14 February, Koli, Finland
Recent outlook-related activities at EFI
• Climate-Smart Forestry (EFI MDTF): forestry approach to combine mitigation and adaptation in the management of forests
• S2BIOM (FP7): spatial assessment of the potential availability of biomass from European Forests
• Advanced biofuels study (EC tender): potential availability (supply, costs) of biomass for advanced biofuels, as affected by R&I efforts
• FORBIO (Academy of Finland): improving the resource efficiency and climate neutrality of forestry and to facilitate the adaptation of the forest-based sector in Finland
• BioMonitor (H2020): developing a monitoring and modelling framework for the European Bioeconomy
• China-Europe Forest Bioeconomy (EFI MDTF): Assessment and outlook
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Peters et al. 2013. The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C.Nature Climate Change 3, 4-6.
Emission trajectories
Natural climate solutions
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Griscom et al. 2017 / figure from twitter
Natural climate solutions, but….
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Nabuurs et al. 2013
• A biological sink will eventually saturate
Natural climate solutions, but….
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Forest disturbance damage in Europe 1971–2030(Seidl et al. 2014)
• Storing carbon in the forest is not free of risk
Natural climate solutions, but….
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• There will be an increasing demand for materials to meet the demands by a growing and increasingly rich global population
Raw material extraction, associated with +41% in GHG emissions
(Hatfield-Dodds et al. 2017)
Climate-Smart Forestry
• Smart approaches are needed that are spatially diversified and combine mitigation and adaption;
• CSF builds on the concepts of sustainable forest management, but has a clear climate focus;
• Key messages:
1. Enhance global afforestation and avoid deforestation and degradation;
2. Combine mitigation and adaptation measures in the management of forests;
3. Use wood sustainably and substitute non-renewable carbon-intensive materials.
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Climate-Smart Forestry
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Drivers of forest cover loss(Curtis et al. 2018)
Enhance global afforestation and avoid deforestation
• Measures predominantly important in the tropics
• Role of forest management underestimated
• Prevent degradation from poor forest management practices
• Management of afforested areas (species selection, tending, thinning,…..)
• Policy implications relate to:
• Law enforcement
• Commodity prices
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Combine mitigation and adaptation measures
• Examples of CSF management options (Nabuurs et al. 2013; Astrup et al. 2018):
• Conserve high carbon-stock densities in old forests that are not at a high risk of disturbance;
• Conserve high carbon-stock forests on sensitive sites, high soil carbon sites and steep slopes;
• Optimize silvicultural techniques (such as planting, tending and harvesting) to arrive at a carbon-efficient management scheme in forests that are grown primarily for timber;
• Improve the management and protection of fire-prone forests to safeguard their carbon stocks;
• Actively manage (mature) forests that are at high risk of disturbance;
• Increase share of broadleaves to increase resilience to disturbances.
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Sustainable use and substitution
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Spatial distribution of the potential forest biomass availability in Europe(Verkerk et al. 2019)
Sustainable use and substitution
• If more wood used →
reduction in short to medium term forest sink
• BUT:• Roundwood could be used for products → carbon
accounted as Harvest Wood Products• Roundwood could substitute steel, glass or concrete →
savings in other emission sectors• Wood (e.g. residues, waste) could substitute fossil fuels
→ savings in other emission sectors
• Often (mis)used substitution value: 2.1 tC / tC (Sathre and o’Connor 2010)
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Sustainable use and substitution
• New evidence from a meta-review the literature (Leskinen et al. / Verkerk et al.) :• Average substitution around 1.2 kgC / kgC (or 2.2 kg CO2 / kg product)
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Sustainable use and substitution
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• Development of a sustainable bioeconomy may provide new value chains and incentives for forest management
Sustainable use and substitution
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• Potential implications of a ~1-2% market share on revenue and wood use of new wood-based products in Canada, Finland, Sweden and USA by 2030
Hurmekoski et al. 2018
Sustainable use and substitution
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Summary of potential implications (Hurmekoski et al. 2018):
1. Turnover could increase by 10 - 40 % compared to current situation (in CAN, FIN, SWE & USA) by 2030. It compensates many times the expected decline of turnover fromgraphics paper production (estimated to be around 5.5 billion euros by 2030).
2. The scale of turnover is very senstive to assumptions in which section of the value chainthe industry will operate (raw material or end product producer)
3. Wood consumption would increase by 2 - 21 % by 2030 compared to current level
4. Biofuels and biochemicals production do not necessarily increase significantlyroundwood demand, as they may be mainly based on sidestreams and forest residues
5. The production of new bioeconomy products is tightly linked to the production of current forest products. More research needed on these links
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BIOMONITOR: Monitoring the bioeconomy
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• Closing the data gaps observed when measuring the bioeconomyby using new and improved datasets
• Enhancing existing modelling tools that guide industries and policymakers in defining long-term strategies
• Creating a stakeholder engagement platform and training modules to validate and disseminate the data and modelling framework developed by the project
BIOMONITOR: Monitoring the bioeconomy
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BIOMONITOR: Monitoring the bioeconomy
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Models in the BioMonitor toolbox
• are existing, complementary, up-to-date and operational
• can deal with all sort of policy and research questions, related to bioeconomy
• cover the value chain, from monitoring to scenario analysis, from short to long term projections
• so far mostly for traditional sectors in the bioeconomy
• Knowledge gap: new innovative biobasedsectors and products are hardly covered
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• Jasinevičius, G., Lindner, M., Verkerk, P.J., Aleinikovas, M., 2017. Assessing Impacts of Wood Utilisation Scenarios for a Lithuanian Bioeconomy: Impacts onCarbon in Forests and Harvested Wood Products and on the Socio-Economic Performance of the Forest-Based Sector. Forests 8.
• Hetemäki, L. (ed.) 2014. Forest Products Outlook. Future of the European Forest-Based Sector: Structural Changes Towards Bioeconomy. EFI What ScienceCan Tell Us –report Vol. 6.
• Hetemäki, L. & Hurmekoski, E. 2016. Forest products markets under change: review and research implications. Current Forestry Reports 2 (3): 177-188.
• Hurmekoski, E. 2016. Long-Term Outlook for Wood Consturuction in Europe. Dissertationes Forestales, Univeristy of Eastern Finland.
• Hurmekoski, E. & Hetemäki, L. 2013. Studying the Future of the Forest Sector: Review and Implications for Long-Term Outlook Studies. Forest Policy andEconomics, 34: 17–29.
• Hurmekoski, E., Hetemäki, L. & Linden, M. 2015. Factors Affecting Sawnwood Consumption in Europe, Forest Policy and Economics 50: 236-248.
• Hurmekoski, E., Jonsson, R., Korhonen, J., Jänis, J., Mäkinen, M., Leskinen, P., Hetemäki, L., 2018. Diversification of the forest industries: role of new wood-based products. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 48, 1417-1432.
• Hurmekoski, E., Pykäläinen, J. & Hetemäki, L. 2017. Long-term targets for green building: A Delphi backcasting study on wood-frame multi-story constructionin Finland, Journal of Cleaner Production
• Näyhä, A., Pelli, P. & Hetemäki, L. 2015. Services in the forest-based sector – unexplored futures, Foresight, Vol.17, Issue 4; 378-398.
• Verkerk, P.J., Fitzgerald, J.B., Datta, P., Dees, M., Hengeveld, G.M., Lindner, M., Zudin, S., 2019. Spatial distribution of the potential forest biomass availabilityin Europe. Forest Ecosystems 6, 5.
• Verkerk, P.J., Lindner, M., Pérez-Soba, M., Paterson, J.S., Helming, J., Verburg, P.H., Kuemmerle, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Moiseyev, A., Müller, D., Popp, A.,Schulp, C.J.E., Stürck, J., Tabeau, A., Wolfslehner, B., van der Zanden, E.H., 2018. Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe. RegionalEnvironmental Change 18, 817-830.
• Verkerk P.J. (2015). Assessing impacts of intensified biomass removal and biodiversity protection on European forests. Dissertationes Forestales 197. 50 p.
• Winkel, G. (2016). Towards a sustainable European forest-based bioecnomy: assessment and way forward. EFI What Science Can Tell Us –report Vol. 8.
Recent outlook-related publications by EFI
Concluding remarks
• Multiple ongoing outlook-related activities ongoing at EFI;
• Forest management strategies and practices need to consider mitigation and adaptation simultaneously;
• Optimal strategies need to consider carbon balances of forest ecosystems, wood products and substitution effects, in the long-term;
• Better understanding needed of new wood-based products and their economic and environmental impacts, including potential substitution effects.
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